EMRS: Liberal 36, Labor 31, Greens 15 in Tasmania

A dive in support for the country’s last remaining and now minority Liberal government, although Labor fails to reap a significant dividend.

The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania has Liberal support slumping six points since the February poll to 36%, its lowest level in this long-running series since 2018, but with Labor up only one point to 31%. The Greens are up two to 15%, their best result since 2019 in a series that has shown a tendency to overestimate them. Despite Labor’s apparent softness, leader Rebecca White takes a 40-38 lead over Jeremy Rockliff as preferred premier, reversing Rockliff’s 44-36 lead last time. The poll was conducted by phone last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1000.

Recent Tasmanian developments of note:

• The government lost its parliamentary majority a fortnight ago when Bass MP Lara Alexander and Lyons MP John Tucker quit the Liberal Party to sit as independents. Both had flagged concerns with future debt from the AFL stadium at Macquarie Point and Marius Link electricity interconnector with the mainland. This puts the numbers in the House of Assembly at Liberal 11, Labor nine, Greens two and independents three, although Labor’s nine includes David O’Byrne, who was ejected from caucus in July 2021.

• The dominant issue of recent weeks has been the aforementioned Macquarie Point AFL stadium, to which the federal government has contentiously contributed $240 million of the projected $715 million cost. While this has ensured Tasmania will finally land a team at the AFL, the funding has been very widely criticised at a time of serious housing shortages, with state Labor opposing the state government’s contribution of $375 million. A poll of 2541 Tasmanians conducted by Community Engagement last October found 67% were opposed to the stadium with only 17% in favour.

Results have been finalised for the three periodic Legislative Council elections held on May 6, each of which were won easily by the incumbents. Labor’s Sarah Lovell fell seven votes short of holding Rumney without having to go to preferences, with a primary vote of 11,003 (49.97%) out of 22,018 amid a field of four candidates. Independent Ruth Forrest polled 16,542 (71.88%) out of 23,013 against two rival independents and a Shooters Fishers and Farmers candidate in Murchison; another independent, Rosemary Armitage, polled 15,548 (78.23%) out of 19,875 in a two-horse race against the Greens in Launceston.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5 comments on “EMRS: Liberal 36, Labor 31, Greens 15 in Tasmania”

  1. After living in southern Tassie for 12 years all i can say is ,
    which one of the Libs mates would benefit from this terrible project.
    just spend the $245 mil on Bellerive .

  2. It’s two years to the next Tassie election Once again we have a long, looonnng wait to get rid of a dead government walking. But four year terms result in better governance, so I’m told.

  3. The 2 ex-libs voted against the Lib government yestefrday on a very minor budget measure yesterday. They requested an amendment to the time allowed to answer questions without noticed, this passed as it had Green and Labor support. I don’t reckon this government is going to fall any time soon. The 2 ex-libs have too much personal interest in drawing a wage for another 2 years, and raising their religious right views about banning abortion, gay conversion therapy, various minority rights, and being general cookers.

    Keven Bonham said that this latest polling wouldn’t result in much of a shift in power if an election was held today.

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