The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 54-46, in from 55-45 last time. The primary votes are Labor 37% (down one), Coalition 35% (up one), Greens 10% (down one) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is down two to 55% and his disapproval is up five to 38%, and his lead on preferred prime minister is in from 56-26 to 54-28. We are told that Peter Dutton’s net rating is at minus 11 – he was at 36% approval and 46% disapproval last time (UPDATE: Now 37% approval and 48% disapproval).
The poll also finds very strong support for the proposed changes to taxation of superannuation, which the question goes to some lengths to explain. Sixty-four per cent registered support for the idea, with only 29% opposed, with breakdowns viewable here finding the proposal seemingly scoring well with every constituency other than journalists.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1530.
Yeah – I’d guess ScoMo will be visiting the speaker shortly after the NSW Election/Aston By-Election.
Fair post Asha. Triumphalism is so ugly.
Don’t rule out Simon funding a Senate ticket
Which will see the end of the Independents calling themselves “Greens”
Simon is nothing if not strategic
Watermelon says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 8:08 pm
Indeed. Both India and China are increasing their coal-fired capacity.
If the Western world had the same per-capita emissions as India or China there might be some hope.
….’
———————————–
The West is reducing it’s coal-fired emissions. China and India are increasing their’s.
Thank goodness for this!
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202303/1286750.shtml
Of course one of the reasons the West is reducing their emissions is that Chinese manufacturing has made solar panels and wind turbines affordable.
Lars von Trier claims:
Post 2025 – it will be Tanya Plibersek vs Allegra Spender for the top job. With Tanya reprising the Gillard role.
……………………………………………………………………………….
While I didn’t get it straight from the horse’s mouth, my impeccable sources tell me that should there be a challenge post 2025, it will not be Tanya counting the numbers.
Absolute proof China does not regard Ukrainians as human beings who deserve life:
“Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang drew comparisons on March 7 between hypothetical Chinese military aid for Russia to U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan, CNN reported on March 7.
“Why does the US ask China not to provide weapons to Russia while it keeps selling arms to Taiwan?” the minister, as quoted by CNN, asked during a news conference.”
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/chinas-foreign-minister-compares-hypothetical-military-aid-for-russia-to-us-aid-for-taiwan
I’ll answer their (regrettably) rhetorically-meant question:
Taiwan is not killing anyone with their weapons.
Russia is.
But I guess because it’s Ukrainians who are being killed, they don’t count, for Xi and his regime.
The Chinese regime can burn in hell. 😡
Putin sacrifices tens of thousands of his own troops, and murders thousands of Ukrainians, and still he might not even get his precious photo-op in Bakhmut:
“Ukrainian forces have ‘likely stabilized’ their defensive perimeter in Bakhmut following Russian efforts to encroach from the north of the city, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry’s daily intelligence update published on March 7. ”
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/uk-defense-ministry-ukrainian-forces-have-likely-stabilized-their-defensive-perimeter-in-bakhmut
Putin and his Kremlin can burn in hell. 😡
If your beloved dog contracts gastric dilatation & volvulus (GDV), be prepared to fork out bigly. Thus far, for an overnight stay in an animal hospital (Carrara), dear Boogie’s bill is $2,500. If it’s confirmed via another X-ray that she does have GVD, the operation will be another six to seven thousand. I mulling it over.
I’d add that I sought a pensioner discount but was refused.
______________________________________
I only viewed a little of Campbell’s examination today but what I did observe was a broken woman. I blame Howard for his contention that public servants are there only to serve their policial masters, not to provide them with fearless advice – if only he had to stuck to wills & estates.
Poland’s military sees the relative significance of Bakhmut to both sides very clearly:
“General Stanisław Koziej, former Head of the National Security Bureau of Poland, believes that if Ukraine loses Bakhmut, nothing will happen, while the defeat of the Russians in Bakhmut would be a disaster for the Russian Federation.
Source: European Pravda; Stanisław Koziej on the air of Polsat
Stanisław Koziej said that he trusts the decisions of the Ukrainian command.
“The battle for Bakhmut is interpreted differently by the Russian side and differently by the Ukrainian side. The Ukrainians treat Bakhmut as a place where they can cause huge losses to the Russians. And as long as they can inflict these losses, as long as the Russians are attacking Bakhmut in waves and the Ukrainians are defending themselves and can shoot these advancing Russian waves, then, from a military point of view, it makes sense to defend this Bakhmut,” the general said.
“Ukraine does not look at Bakhmut so politically, propagandistically or even strategically, because this place does not have any huge strategic significance, in the sense that (if) they lose Bakhmut, Ukraine will be open to further Russian invasion,” he said.
But, according to him, the Russians look at Bakhmut more from a political and propaganda point of view.
“For Russia, this is a certain symbol that has been promoted for a long time. If the Russians fail to capture it, it will be a disaster and a defeat for them. On the other hand, if they capture it, they will be able to boast that we have won an important place; we are winning,” Koziej said.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/7/7392306/
Слава Україні! Героям слава!
Griff @ #1037 Tuesday, March 7th, 2023 – 8:31 pm
Have you asked ChatGPT to do it? I’d be willing to bet it could do so – but of course it might not tell you so unless you agreed to pay money to Microsoft.
That’s rough Mavis. All the best with it.
Watching a replay of QT … anyone notice how bald Morrison is now?
Hang on a minute …
Remind me: Which is the party making ultimatums here?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-07/bowen-ultimatum-seize-or-squander-safeguard-mechanism/102061100
Bloody ABC! How could they get that so wrong?
nath:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 9:49 pm
[‘That’s rough Mavis. All the best with it.’]
Cheers, nath.
Q: Both India and China are increasing their coal-fired capacity.
Well then we have to cut our emissions even more…..the Earth doesn’t care where the emissions are coming from.
FFS!
https://youtu.be/2Ewy2_NwWT4
Ya’ really want to know what would be ‘for a good cause’ Sssssusssan? Supporting moves to make millionaires with super balances of more than $3 million pay a little more tax.Who knows, maybe you’d start a trend, and who knows where this may end up? Chevron paying more than zero dollars, even Newscorpse paying a few dollars, then … maybe even franking credits and negative gearing and capital gains deductions, and the diesel fuel rebate could all get a haircut and behold … maybe all those causes that you like to cos-play like a cheap hooker for could rely upon government funding instead of the false dawn of tory largesse charity hand outs …
JenAuthor @ #1068 Tuesday, March 7th, 2023 – 9:50 pm
I have noticed it recently. I also noticed Alan Tudge has a bald spot now. 🙂
98.6 @ #1061 Tuesday, March 7th, 2023 – 9:33 pm
Don’t believe anything Lars von Liar says about the Labor Party. He just makes shit up to troll the blog.
I agree with Asha. Labor is not going to a DD this year. People won’t appreciate an early election, it would cut across the Voice referendum which Albo has made as central to his PMship as anything, and OMG seriously Labor is not going to an election as interest rates peak, that would be moronic.
Get into 2024 with the Voice referendum in the rear view, interest rates receding, the effects of the 2023 budget hopefully helping out with cost of living, the childcare changes having had time to really kick in etc etc and then Labor could potentially run a DD if the Greens have still been intractable on emissions and the polling seems good. Ideally have a few bills lined up if you’re going to a DD since there’s no guarantee of a better upper house after the DD and so your big advantage is being able to force through the DD bills themselves.
I don’t reckon the Greens can sit there all the way to 2024 not passing any emissions scheme at all though without copping a massive backlash. The absolute refusal to compromise does them no favours. It’s certainly confirming that the reasons they lost my vote after 2009 remain horribly in place.
Here we go again @ #1057 Tuesday, March 7th, 2023 – 9:06 pm
I wish he would. Then we might be rid of the grand-standing Greens. A lot of people look for a sensible alternative to the two major parties. And that’s not The Greens at the moment.
Shogun @ #1052 Tuesday, March 7th, 2023 – 8:59 pm
So strong it burns. 😐
“Speaking as an academic at a G8 institution, our current plagiarism detector cannot detect chatGPT generated text with reasonable prompt engineering. Perhaps other institutions can.”
Same. But we are trialling ways. And it makes for a good thesis project.
“Further, speaking as an associate editor for a Q1 journal , we currently cannot detect chatGPT text. Perhaps other platforms can.”
None that I know of. I mainly work with two groups starting with I.
“The clue is in the word you used, “generated”. The text is not plagiarised from another source. That said, chatGPT can generate similar text when similar prompts are provided. Best to vary it up a little ”
And let it be known that your teachers are doing that too, to generate the text you might generate using the assessment task I wrote (and did not use chatGPT to generate).
“I personally think the genie is out of the bottle. But hey, who knows what happens in the future?”
Yep, learn to roll with it!
P1,
“Have you asked ChatGPT to do it? I’d be willing to bet it could do so – but of course it might not tell you so unless you agreed to pay money to Microsoft.”
It’s a generative neural network that’s based on an attention architecture, trained to be a chat bot. It does not have a typical classifier architecture, and its not trained to be a classifier. So, no, it won’t be able to do that.
And I reckon this demonstrates again that you don’t know much about it.
“I have noticed it recently. I also noticed Alan Tudge has a bald spot now. ”
Oi, oi! Mark Waugh might be following this discussion.
JenAuthor @ #1068 Tuesday, March 7th, 2023 – 9:50 pm
[‘Watching a replay of QT … anyone notice how bald Morrison is now?’]
Yes! And he really needs to do something about it.
Why then does Dutton keep rabbiting on about US subs? Even when still defence minister back in early 2022 Dutton referred to Australia getting US Virginia class subs “off the shelf”. Morrison had access to the same information at the same time.
Who is lying, Dutton or Morrison? They can’t both be right.
We all know it’s Dutton who is lying. He’s trying to pull off a Trump. Disparage what the government is doing, by calling the British subs ‘cheap’, and attempt to use his ‘gravitas’ as a former Defence Minister to gull people into believing him.
He thinks it’s smart politically but it isn’t because he’s so transparently wRONg!
Dandy Murray @ #1074 Tuesday, March 7th, 2023 – 10:08 pm
Did you ask it? I cannot, but I’d be interested in reading its answer.
Dandy Murray @ #1079 Tuesday, March 7th, 2023 – 10:10 pm
Better that, than this 😆
The Tele trying to help the NSW Libs?
The Liberal nomination of Melanie Gibbons for the seat of Kiama suggests that they are not going to run much of a campaign to hold it. I doubt she would have local branch support and she is completely from out of area, going in at the last minute, it is a tough ask to hold.
wranslide:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 10:23 pm
[‘The Tele trying to help the NSW Libs?’]
Nothing will save the governor-general – so to speak. I’m out.
Tanya Plibersek is only a Labor leader in the eyes of conservatives who are wishing for another woman to attack. Within the party, she doesn’t have a massive amount of support.
A bit like how I keep talking Dan Tehan up as Liberal leader…..
Taylormade says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 6:46 pm
Snappy Tom says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 5:55 pm
Tricky picking up a red cricket ball against those “sight” screens.
_____________________
Looking forward to the snap-o-meter for the next test.
Lets see if it can improve its accruacy.
25 runs is the variance to beat.
____________
You may recall when India lost their 4th wicket at a score of 78, I indicated the Snap-O-Meter suggested an innings total of 159.
India ultimately scored 163 – within 2.6% of the prediction.
The Snap-O-Meter is dynamic, yet remarkably accurate. By basing predictions on the fall of wickets within a particular innings, it automatically factors in pitch conditions etc.
It is also far more entertaining than the Duckworth-Lewis-Whatever, which, after all, is just a book of tables gathering dust.
Also entertaining is my sense of panic when a huge partnership or rapid fall of wickets threatens to derail the Snap-O-Meter.
What’s not to like?
Rossmcg says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 7:12 pm
Albo setting up a DD?
Bloody hell, yesterday he wasn’t even gunna be Prime Minister in six months.
_____________________
I have it from the highest authority: he’ll be managed out.
Socrates says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 8:49 pm
A non-technical comment on AUKUS. Catching up on news feeds today Morrison appears to have contradicted Dutton on choice of submarine.
Both Sky News and The Australian have quoted Morrison as saying getting UK designed subs was “the original intention” of AUKUS.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/defence-and-foreign-affairs/a-british-submarine-model-would-be-consistent-with-the-original-intent-of-aukus/video/5ae5c3d20c44637ec7984cdd5b20d8fb
Why then does Dutton keep rabbiting on about US subs? Even when still defence minister back in early 2022 Dutton referred to Australia getting US Virginia class subs “off the shelf”. Morrison had access to the same information at the same time.
Who is lying, Dutton or Morrison? They can’t both be right.
If originally there was no effective delivery plan for AUKUS, and they were both making stuff up, they could both be lying.
As best I can find this was the Liberal sub plan.
____________
Truth is irrelevant, as are facts.
The electorate only needs to believe that 1) the Coalition are superior on national security; 2) whatever choice Labor makes on submarines is wrong; and 3) Dutton would’ve made a better choice, because 1).
Just got back from seeing the Wharf Revue at the Wyong Art House Theatre. Brilliantly funny as always. Drew Forsythe’s Pauline Hanson is more than spot on, and Mandy Bishop’s Jacquie Lambie was a tour de force.
The theatre puts on sumptuous nibbles afterwards, and we chatted with the cast. A terrific night out. See it if you can.
yabba says:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 11:18 pm
Just got back from seeing the Wharf Revue at the Wyong Art House Theatre. Brilliantly funny as always. Drew Forsythe’s Pauline Hanson is more than spot on, and Mandy Bishop’s Jacquie Lambie was a tour de force.
The theatre puts on sumptuous nibbles afterwards, and we chatted with the cast. A terrific night out. See it if you can.
____________
I was inspired by your comments to check when it is one in Brisbane. Tragically, season concluded 25 Feb, just a few days after Ms Snappy and i relocated here…
Roll on 2024.
FWIW, “Sub Brief” is quoting a source claiming that Australia is going with the Astute class SSN.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Vl9KBZLOnA
》The absolute refusal to compromise does them no favours.
Has Labor given anything to the Greens to compromise with or does compromise mean Labour gets everything they want and the Greens get nothing?
Can someone explain to me the assumed political ramifications of the Greens blocking the Government’s refit of the Coalition’s carbon reduction legislation that litter various comments?
A cursory glance at the elections results post 2009 show the Greens’ vote or level of representation has increased. And given the Coalition seem happy enough to vote no to anything the ALP propose and don’t have a policy themselves – surely Albo’s promise to the end the climate wars is not something that you could go to an election on? As opposed to no new coal or gas.
From a strategic position doesn’t it make sense for the Greens to hold out as long as possible, including going to an election, given what has occurred in previous elections and the risk to the Government of an even more difficult Senate to deal with post election?
I suppose NSW footballers are shaking in their footy boots with the results of the NRL first round where all four QLD teams won their respective matches.
How good is 73 year old coach Wayne Bennett?
He coached the Dolphins to an incredible win in their first NRL game.
Even if Bennett never wins another game he will be remembered as the greatest coach, bar none.
Boerwar wrote, “2. If you prioritize criticisms of Israel for behaviours that are similar to dozens of other countries there is a possibility that you are doing so because you are anti-semitic.”
Calling out fascists is not antisemitic.
An interesting tit bit
1st Director General of the BBC was John Reith
He essentially built BBC as an “independent” broadcaster
John Reith was a committed fascist and an admirer of Hitler
How many people know this shocking history?
BBC & UK have hidden their history in plain sight
Jennifer Rubin of The Washington Post, takes “sober” Republicans and the mainstream media to task for continuing to normalize Number 45.
Apparently, neither the media nor supposedly sober Republicans have learned anything from the past. Trump gave a bonkers speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday, musing about Russia blowing up NATO headquarters, claiming President Biden had taken the border wall and “put it in a hiding area,” and telling the crowd, “I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed: I am your retribution.”
We do not get headlines acknowledging this is unhinged. Instead, we get from the New York Times: “Trump Says He Would Stay in 2024 Race if Indicted.” And a similar angle from CNN. ABC started its website report this way: “Former President Donald Trump continues to reign supreme over the conservative wing of the Republican Party.” From The Washington Post: “Trump takes victory lap at conservative conference.”
[…]
From the coverage, you would never understand how incoherent he sounds, how far divorced his statements are from reality, and how entirely abnormal this all is. Talk about burying the lead.
[…]
This spectacle is equal parts infuriating and pathetic. Here are Republicans, some of whom are considering runs for the presidency, who somehow expect to get through a campaign without mentioning the single most disqualifying thing about the leader in the race (other than his mental unfitness): He betrayed the country. Such timidity is itself disqualifying for someone seeking the presidency. If these candidates cannot stand up to an ex-president who is currently devoid of power, how can we expect to them to defend the Constitution against enemies foreign and domestic?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/03/06/trump-cpac-media-gop-failure/
I posted a few times that since neo-fascist Meloni became PM of Italy, she is no longer referred as that. At the most they her as far-right leader. The implication is that a NATO member and a EU member cannot be fascist.
……….
The malleability of the word “fascism” by Daniel Bessner of The New Republic.
“Fascism”… has generally functioned as a so-called floating signifier. In the words of the anthropologist Claude Lévi-Strauss, who originated the phrase, a floating signifier is a term “void of meaning and thus apt to receive any meaning.” At one point or another, every political perspective in the United States has been identified as fascist. In the last two decades alone, Jonah Goldberg railed against “liberal fascism” as Chris Hedges dubbed the “Christian Right” “American fascists.” Dinesh D’Souza claimed that Hillary Clinton was fascist; Paul Krugman said the same about Trump. And even fringe ideologies weren’t safe: Sebastian Gorka linked socialism with fascism, while Nouriel Roubini made similar claims about libertarianism.
The one consistent quality the term “fascism” has retained since the 1930s is its negative valence. Almost no one uses it positively; instead, to borrow Kuklick’s acid description, the term is the verbal equivalent of “throwing a tomato at a speaker at a public event.” “Fascism,” Kuklick shows, “does not so much isolate a thing as it does some stigmatizing.” Indeed, fascism’s power in American discourse comes from the fact that it has no stable meaning—it’s mostly an all-purpose curse word, a highfalutin “fuck this”—which means that the fascism debate, as currently constructed, can never end.
[…]
No incident displays the term’s malleability more than an informal 1937 survey undertaken by the social theorist Stuart Chase, who asked almost 100 people “what ‘fascism’ meant to them.” The respondents offered a range of diverse, even antithetical, definitions: A lawyer said “fascism” was “a coercive capitalistic state,” while a housewife identified it as the “same thing as communism”; an author answered that it was “an all-powerful police force,” while a farmer characterized it as “lawlessness”; a social worker described it as “government in the interest of the majority,” while a journalist insisted it was “undesired government of [the] masses by a self-seeking, fanatical minority.” Still, while the respondents provided diverse interpretations of fascism, most agreed that, whatever fascism was, they didn’t like it. Or as a schoolboy put it with youthful bravado, fascism was “something that’s got to be licked.”
https://newrepublic.com/article/170890/does-american-fascism-exist
In the above article the author refers to a 1937 survey of 100 people.
What I understood from that is that they never wanted to call any European leader as “fascist”.
New thread:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/03/08/polls-essential-research-voice-polling-jws-research-issues-survey-open-thread/
New thread.
C@tmomma @ 4.44pm
Spot on, response regarding ACT survey.
The most highly subsidised, molly-coddled and over indulged urban area of Australia, attempting to tell the national government and other Australians, what the national government should be doing.