Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continue to fall steadily to earth, but the latest Newspoll registers very strong support for the government’s proposed super reforms.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 54-46, in from 55-45 last time. The primary votes are Labor 37% (down one), Coalition 35% (up one), Greens 10% (down one) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is down two to 55% and his disapproval is up five to 38%, and his lead on preferred prime minister is in from 56-26 to 54-28. We are told that Peter Dutton’s net rating is at minus 11 – he was at 36% approval and 46% disapproval last time (UPDATE: Now 37% approval and 48% disapproval).

The poll also finds very strong support for the proposed changes to taxation of superannuation, which the question goes to some lengths to explain. Sixty-four per cent registered support for the idea, with only 29% opposed, with breakdowns viewable here finding the proposal seemingly scoring well with every constituency other than journalists.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1530.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,108 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 21 of 23
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  1. i dont think labor would risk a double disa lution considering it would just help the greens the last doubledisalution election gave us one nation

  2. Oh Moira Shire…. where does one start? The big issue with that shire is that it dominated by two large towns (Yarrawonga & Cobram) that dominate the council and the rest of the towns never get a look in. Hence, a voting block coming from those two towns has dominated for ages and allowed petty corruption to get out of control. Meanwhile the mayor was trying to have his property rezoned.

    But the bigger issue is there are a few LGAs in Victoria that need to be broken up as it has been almost 30 years since there has been any major adjustments.
    – Moira should probably have Yarrawonga split off into its’ own LGA.
    – Sunbury could be split off from Hume.
    – The south of Mitchell (Wallan area) should be split off into its own LGA.
    – Casey needs to be split in half as it will end up with a population bigger than Tasmania.
    – Phillip Island could be its own LGA

  3. Bowen: If this reform does not pass, there’ll be no constraint, no constraint. So, again, the choice for the Parliament is: do you want business as usual, which is seeing emissions from these facilities go up, existing and new go up, or do you want a constraint in place which this policy provides which will see emissions come down?

  4. BSF

    The push is for bigger shires, not smaller ones – Strathbogie is a mistake, and Mansfield and Benalla should have been shifted to other shires, not separated.

  5. ‘Aaron newton says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 7:16 pm

    i dont think labor would risk a double disa lution considering it would just help the greens the last doubledisalution election gave us one nation’
    ———————————–
    It would help the Greens because the last one gave us One Nation?
    Labor is set to be the major beneficiary of a DD.

  6. Boerwar 6.18pm
    “A fifth big difference is that the Greens have not changed their spots since 2009.”

    It says it all really, the Greens, but don’t mind the spots, even the changing colour of the spots.

    Using those spots judiciously could be useful!

  7. In the delusional world of corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units , If Labor wins the Aston By-election
    It will be Daniel Andrews who will go to the governor general and advise the governor general to agree to a early federal election.

  8. regional Victoria should be simply split up into administrative areas. let’s call them Districts 1 through 12, and run from the Capital.

  9. For those who missed it:
    98.6 says:
    ” YOU DON’T NEED A BOOK TO TELL YOU HOW TO LEAD A GOOD LIFE”.
    ———————
    Ven replies
    HOWEVER A GOOD BOOK WILL TELL YOU HOW TO LEAD A GOOD LIFE.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    98.6
    I repeat, “YOU DON’T NEED A BOOK TO TELL YOU HOW TO LEAD A GOOD LIFE”.

  10. Player One says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 7:22 pm
    Boerwar @ #1006 Tuesday, March 7th, 2023 – 7:22 pm

    Integrity baiting one liner is… a gas.
    Any suckers?
    You mean, apart from you?
    _______________
    You’d think a defined benefit multimillionaire would be more gracious.

  11. Boerwar

    The Western press is not, IMO, being critical enough in this sphere.

    Too right. In urban warfare when the other side has an enormous advantage in artillery (rocket, tube, heavy mortar) and you are being hit from 3 sides it is a bit of a stretch to believe such ratios.

  12. 98.6
    I repeat, “YOU DON’T NEED A BOOK TO TELL YOU HOW TO LEAD A GOOD LIFE”.

    I found The Little Red Hen to be highly instructive. Changed me forever.

  13. While I am firmly of the view the Government is going down a reckless path that magnifies the death, damage and destruction that Australians will continue to suffer from the climate catastrophe that is already unfolding, and they are only doing because they are weak, cowards, lacking in integrity, and willing and happy to put personal ambition and power ahead of the lives of our children and grandchildren.

    Having said that the greens teaming up with the Liberals to get modelling released is f*cked politics of the stupidest kind. The libs with *checks notes* pretty much every media outlet in Australia will flood the zone with ‘analysis’ of the modelling that shows no action on climate change is needed, and that is the message that will stick.

    Oh the greens will have a moment of smugness, and no doubt put out some terrific and impressive memes to the 5% or less of the electorate that vote for them because they want to, rather than a protest vote against Labor.

  14. Let’s face facts there’s no electoral mandate to stop cooking the planet til literally billions are literally dead. The people who would truly be motivated to vote to end new fossil fuel projects are too young to vote or haven’t been born yet. Fuck them.

  15. Shogun says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 7:51 pm
    98.6
    I repeat, “YOU DON’T NEED A BOOK TO TELL YOU HOW TO LEAD A GOOD LIFE”.

    I found The Little Red Hen to be highly instructive. Changed me forever.
    ___________________________________________
    Mental age appropriate for you – makes sense.

  16. ‘Watermelon says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 7:52 pm

    Let’s face facts there’s no electoral mandate to stop cooking the planet til literally billions are literally dead. The people who would truly be motivated to vote to end new fossil fuel projects are too young to vote or haven’t been born yet. Fuck them.’
    ——————————
    Indeed. Both India and China are increasing their coal-fired capacity.

  17. sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 7:55 pm
    There will be no DD in the first term of an Albanese Labor Government.

    You heard it hear first.
    _________________________________________
    Of course they won’t dare. No ticker?

  18. Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel Sports Complex, Ahmedabad, India. It is the largest stadium in the world, with a seating capacity of 132,000 spectators.

    With Modi and Albo guaranteed attendees, that only leaves 131,998 more for the full house…

  19. Despite the juvenile ‘action now’ crew gluing themselves metaphorically to BillBo’s blog – Labor is putting in the architecture for serious emissions reduction.

    Which can be ratcheted up in future years if required, and can be presented to recalcitrant G20 partners as a way forward to kerb Climate Change.

    A redux of the 2009 CPRS.

    A certain future of reducing emissions? Or ignorant stupidity playing into the hands of Big Dirty.

  20. Lars Von Trier
    Mental age appropriate for you – makes sense.

    I read it a long time ago, when Shogun was just a boy.

  21. sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 8:00 pm

    Lars, you and your ilk can stew on the Opposition benches for the full 3 years. And then lose again.
    _______
    Sprocket imagines he’s on the frontbench, an important folder in his hands.

  22. Indeed. Both India and China are increasing their coal-fired capacity.

    If the Western world had the same per-capita emissions as India or China there might be some hope. If the Western world had the same cumulative historical emissions as India or China there might be some hope.

    There is nothing more pathetic, racist and despicable than Australians who point at developing countries with far lower per-capita emissions trying to haul themselves out of desperate poverty as a reason why Australia should increase what are already among the highest per-capita cumulative historical emissions on the Earth.

  23. Oh sprocket I think Albo will just make it to 3 years. Even the ALP wouldn’t be that crazy to roll Albo would they? Although there is clearly a would if they could grouping there.

    My guess Albo ekes out a narrow win – most likely in minority against Dutton.

    Where’s the fire sprocket? Mostly it was IR laws that were life and death and not much else since. Its not a good govt that lost its way – more one that doesn’t have much of an agenda and the courage of a tinpot lion.

    Post 2025 – it will be Tanya Plibersek vs Allegra Spender for the top job. With Tanya reprising the Gillard role.

    Spender will return to the ancestral home – probs with a senior shadow cabinet role and then Opposition Leader.

    Search your feelings you know this to be true.

  24. sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 8:06 pm
    _______________________
    Big Dirty, I thought it was Big Daddy?

  25. Lars Von Trier says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 8:08 pm

    My guess Albo ekes out a narrow win – most likely in minority against Dutton.

    —————————–
    Currently
    Labor 77 seats
    Lib/nats 57 seats

    For the lib/nats be a threat of a minority is the Lib/nats combined primary vote will need to be higher than 2013 effort of 45.6%, and hope Labor primary vote is below 34%

  26. Player One @ Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 5:42 pm
    “Re ChatGPT:

    There are tools being developed to detect student papers written entirely or with substantial portions generated by AIs such as ChatGPT. Primarily to identify possible plagiarism in student papers.

    Academic journals and publishers also use such tools, to detect possible plagiarism.

    It won’t be long before newspapers also start using these tools, to detect possible plagiarism or just letters and comments submitted by political staffers or other commercial interests falsely pretending to represent public opinion (after all, that’s their job!).

    It also won’t be long before companies also start using these tools to detect plagiarism in commissioned reports, internally generated documents, or dodgy resumes and references.

    It also won’t be long before patent offices also start using these tools to detect AI generated submissions, to detect insufficiently researched or insufficiently “novel” patent requests.

    It also won’t be long before government departments start using these tools, to detect both fraud and insufficiently researched grant and funding requests.

    Anyone who plans to use AI to generate documents for such purposes had better get a move on, because soon any such document will soon be detectable and at the very least downgraded, if not outright binned. Once people can generate large and impressive looking documents with minimal cost or effort, anything that triggers the “AI generated” detector will very likely end up with the document being handled with minimal further human intervention because it would be too costly to have humans wade through them – only another AI could do so economically.”

    Speaking as an academic at a G8 institution, our current plagiarism detector cannot detect chatGPT generated text with reasonable prompt engineering. Perhaps other institutions can.

    Further, speaking as an associate editor for a Q1 journal , we currently cannot detect chatGPT text. Perhaps other platforms can.

    The clue is in the word you used, “generated”. The text is not plagiarised from another source. That said, chatGPT can generate similar text when similar prompts are provided. Best to vary it up a little 😉

    I personally think the genie is out of the bottle. But hey, who knows what happens in the future?

  27. Lib/nats under Dutton are in a far worse position than the lib/nats under Abbott 2013 federal election

    Labor 72 seats
    Lib/nats 72 seats

    Lib/nats combine primary vote of 45.6% gain lib/nats 18 seats

  28. Re the bible.
    98.6 says:
    ” YOU DON’T NEED A BOOK TO TELL YOU HOW TO LEAD A GOOD LIFE”.
    ———————
    Ven replies
    HOWEVER A GOOD BOOK WILL TELL YOU HOW TO LEAD A GOOD LIFE.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    98.6
    I repeat, “YOU DON’T NEED A BOOK TO TELL YOU HOW TO LEAD A GOOD LIFE”.
    —————————————————————
    Then Shogun says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 7:51 pm
    I found The Little Red Hen to be highly instructive. Changed me forever.
    ————————————————————–
    Was it the ‘WOKE’ version?

  29. Lars Von Triersays:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 7:58 pm
    sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 7:55 pm
    There will be no DD in the first term of an Albanese Labor Government.

    You heard it hear first.
    _________________________________________
    Of course they won’t dare. No ticker?

    We’ll be stuck with Labor till at least 2031 and electric cars, big batteries, the resources industry and food will probably line up for another Labor term.
    The Liberals will continue to be a minor party, the Greens quaintly relevant and the nationals as significant as a dry river bed.

    Morrison’s autobiography ” A Salesman’s Lament” will be available in charity bins and not recommended as a English text at high school.

    Morrison destroyed the badly named Liberal Party.
    Morrison’s second literary effort “Shonky Politics For Dummies” failed to re-invent the Morrison’s version of a Mark Lathamesque revival.

  30. Double dissolution lets Labor conduct the election on its terms. Unlike the 2016 double dissolution, it’s probably a serious one about particular bills. If the last election were reproduced, the government wouldn’t have enough of a majority to get its bills through the joint sitting, which would be a disaster for them. But chances are, current polling would serve as a better guide to seat take, and they would probably be able to get everything through.

    So does it help the Greens? If Labor can prove that they can get bills through without the help of the Opposition or the Greens, then that will completely destroy the Greens current strategy. What is the Greens bargaining position if a blocked bill leads to a double dissolution and a Labor victory? Labor can just pack them up and hold an a little early.

    On the other hand, if the Greens can prove that Labor can’t even rely on single member districts to generate a joint sitting majority, then surely the Greens win.

    Between Labor and Greens, the question is whether the Labor party needs the Greens, or whether the Greens are merely in the position to help the Labor party get bills through when their interests align. I suspect the current Labor party has a much greater appetite than Rudd/Gillard/Rudd Labor to push their advantage. And I don’t think the Greens have a genuine understanding of what a double dissolution means in terms of a power contest – they just see the reduced quota on a piece of paper and see the advantage it promises, leaning into a double dissolution without fear. A loss in a joint sitting changes that.

    But if it does come down to the reduced quota? Well, like Boerwar says, I guess Legalise Cannabis or One Nation or someone like that will “win” in that sense, getting more seats than they would have under a single dissolution. I doubt the Greens will get a reliable mechanical advantage with a Labor government – they will be more sensitive to whether the Labor/Greens swing voters buy their campaign or prefer Labor’s.

    I don’t know whose side the relevant part of the electorate will prefer. They may, as it happens, prefer the Greens’ proposals, and the Greens seatcount might increase. But I do know the actual result of a joint sitting will change the relationship between Labor and the Greens more than seat counts will, because if Labor proves they don’t need the Greens, then the Greens will stop believing they have a veto. But if Labor fails to prove it, then it’s Labor who will lose confidence.

  31. There could be a double dissolution but the conditions would have to be right and I mean they would have to really right.

    Labor would need to be primary polling above 38% constantly and TPP would need to be above 55%. Or the opposition could have formally fragmented and then be engaging in a civil war between the two blocks and right wing voters were fragmented as well (and not just small fragments…. big blocks).

    As a DD would have be held by the end of 2024, it would be an “early” election. The issue/s causing the early election too would have to be important. So for example, Climate Change legalisation would be seen as important, super changes probably not.

  32. This isn’t the same situation as Rudd in late 2009. A double-dissolution then would have taken place nearly two and a half years after the last election, with the most recent state election being in Queensland over a year before.

    A double-dissolution called any time in the next few months would result in an election being held roughly a year after the last one, when the country’s two biggest states had only recently had their own elections. The volunteers will all be completely burnt out. The very thought of having being thrown back into the maelstrom of phone-calling and door knocking and campaign meetings and two solid weeks on prepolls so soon after the last time fills me with absolute dread, and I doubt I’m the only Labor supporter that feels that way.

    Yes, the Coalition will be much the same boat re volunteers (probably a worse one), but you know who won’t? The Greens, who have a younger and more energetic base and can swamp their 10-odd target electorates with volunteers from across the country while running dead everywhere else, and the Teals, who will have Climate 200 money behind them and mostly sat out the recent state elections.

    I’m not saying Labor would lose an early DD, or that the Coalition would want one, or even that it should be ruled out as an option in the case that the Senate proves too obstructive. Were Albo to pull the trigger and go to the polls sometime in the next 2-6 months, I think the most likely result would be another narrow Labor majority with an even higher independent/minor party vote than last time. Labor is doing great in the polls right now, sure, but that lead could well evaporate as a combination of an exhausted base and the the general unpopularity of early elections (the “waste of taxpayers money” line would probably get a good run in the current economic climate.) And, let’s be frank, there are a lot of Labor members and supporters who privately wish Labor’s environmental and economical policies were closer to the likes of the Greens and Pocock, and it may be hard to convince them to enthusiastically campaign for policies that they feel lukewarm about at moat just a year after they already worked their butts off doing just that. It would be an apathy election, and minor parties and independents typically do better in those.

    I’ve seen no evidence whatsoever that the Teals have lost their appeal to the voters who elected them. They are advocating much the same policies they did before being election, haven’t done anything to piss off their supporters, and – apart from the whole Ryan / Rugg thing – have been free of anything that looks like a scandal. Independents who win House seats are usually reelected with substantially increased majorities, and I can’t see any reason that trend would be bucked in an election held this year. (Of course, this last paragraph is a bit of a moot point anyway, since in the real world – as opposed to Beorwar-world – the government would be hoping all the Teals retain their seats, especially Pocock, because why the hell would they want the Liberals to win them back!?)

    Oh, yes, and there’s also the matter of that little referendum that’s going to be held later this year.

    Look, who knows, we may well see a surprise DD this term. By 2024, if the polls are still good and the Senate has become unworkable, it could be just the right call. But now, in early 2023, when the government has so far managed to pass its agenda with mostly limited changes and economic conditions are becoming increasingly grim? I see far more risk than reward in that scenario.

    Finally, just a little reminder of what happened last time a popular first-term Labor PM in the midst of their honeymoon went to an early election against an opposition that was regarded as having little chance of winning:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_Australian_federal_election

  33. Careful the screen door doesn’t whack you on the arse on the way out…

    Speculation Scott Morrison may retire from parliament

    There is speculation former prime minister Scott Morrison may retire from parliament by the end of this year, potentially for a consulting job overseas, according to Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell.

    “When I went to see Scott Morrison about this speculation at Parliament House this morning, he told me that if he had anything to say on his future, he would say it and if he had a statement to make at some point he would make a statement,” Mr Clennell said.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/speculation-scott-morrison-may-retire-from-parliament/video/4a3601c5d11921897c00ff95c259f99f

  34. A non-technical comment on AUKUS. Catching up on news feeds today Morrison appears to have contradicted Dutton on choice of submarine.

    Both Sky News and The Australian have quoted Morrison as saying getting UK designed subs was “the original intention” of AUKUS.
    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/defence-and-foreign-affairs/a-british-submarine-model-would-be-consistent-with-the-original-intent-of-aukus/video/5ae5c3d20c44637ec7984cdd5b20d8fb

    Why then does Dutton keep rabbiting on about US subs? Even when still defence minister back in early 2022 Dutton referred to Australia getting US Virginia class subs “off the shelf”. Morrison had access to the same information at the same time.

    Who is lying, Dutton or Morrison? They can’t both be right.

    If originally there was no effective delivery plan for AUKUS, and they were both making stuff up, they could both be lying.

    As best I can find this was the Liberal sub plan.

  35. Watermelon says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 7:52 pm
    Let’s face facts there’s no electoral mandate to stop cooking the planet til literally billions are literally dead. The people who would truly be motivated to vote to end new fossil fuel projects are too young to vote or haven’t been born yet. Fuck them.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    I really can’t argue with your logic, even down to the last two words.
    ( I just happen to be eating a Watermelon at this very moment. Strange though that its green on the outside but red on the inside, with a hint of teal through the skin.)

  36. The earliest a DD could possibly be would be closer to the end of the year.

    It’s likely that, by then, Labor will have more than one potential trigger, as the Greens are playing similar games with other legislation as well.

    Labor waiting to have a couple of triggers in place would make the timing of a DD more likely to be early next year.

  37. Sprocket @7.45pm
    “When I went to see Scott Morrison about this speculation at Parliament House this morning, he told me that if he had anything to say on his future, he would say it and if he had a statement to make at some point he would make a statement,” Mr Clennell said.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

    So much for him saying that had someone asked him if he had secret ministeries while he was PM he would have told them.
    Simple question, Are you going to leave parliament this year? Yes or no.

  38. Shogun says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 8:59 pm
    Lars Von Trier
    Search your feelings you know this to be true.

    The horseshit is strong with this one.
    _____________________________
    I’m sorry to read you have such a low opinion of yourself.

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