Since we’re unlikely to see any polling of any significance for at least another month or so, this would seem an opportune moment to relaunch BludgerTrack, which just has enough data to work off to produce trend measures of voting intention and leaders’ ratings since the May federal election. Naturally it currently shows Labor well on top, with a two-party preferred lead of fully 57.0-43.0, with Anthony Albanese in a similarly commanding position on net approval and preferred prime minister. As before, it also comes with tabular displays of all published voting intention data both nationally and for such breakdowns as have been provided, which at this stage isn’t much. The latter issue means we’re a long way off from being able to produce state-level breakdowns, which to this stage have really only been produced by Resolve Strategic, and then only for the three biggest states. The Australian usually provides aggregated breakdowns of Newspoll in the days following Christmas, but Newspoll results have been thin enough on the ground lately that there seems no guarantee of that.
‘Sceptic says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 7:50 am
A total obscenity… Labor shouldn’t buy into this rubbish..
Congress is on track in the coming week to give final approval to a national military budget for the current fiscal year that is expected to reach approximately $858 billion — or $45 billion above what President Biden had requested. + another $21 billion for Ukraine .
Shares in military suppliers have gone up 40% this year… while the market overall is down.
Meanwhile the US rusts away’
===========================
I am curious about what you would post should you accidentally apply this rationale to China and, say, Taiwan, Japan or India.
“Voice endeavour says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 7:05 am
Lol Macca.
The greens have never lost a single member seat, having won it at a general election, in any federal, state or territory election.
And you’re claiming they’ll start with 2, on the basis of polling this early?”
My dear Voice, with a sample size like the one the Greens can offer, your statistical inference is rather weak, I am afraid…
Victoria says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 8:50 am
Looking forward to Jan 6 criminal referrals this week
Not looking good, Schiff hinting DOJ hung up on proceedings against Trump because he is a POTUS candidate
Sceptic
He did. Cos I’m seeing several charges being recommended against the orange menace.
It’s going to be an interesting week in this regard.
Here’s the actual interview with Adam schiff, in his own words:
https://youtu.be/L4tE4cJixtA
Cartoons of Rishi Sunak depict him with dark skin, Abbott-like ears, a long nose and a pointy chin. This is the usual sort of caricature of a public figure’s appearance employed by cartoonists. None of the devices employed seem to be racial stereotyping of his Indian background, so I have not perceived cartoon depictions of him as racist. I don’t think that many people would.
Boerwar says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 9:02 am
I’d add it too the cumulative total to make the overall result even worse
There should also be criminal referrals for those currently in Congress.
Fascinating contrast within the same paper.
“nath says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 7:46 am
Since when has winning with a majority of 1 not falling over the line?”
It’s not falling over the line because it isn’t a win by a “majority of 1”, it’s a win by a majority of 3!
77 seats ALP
58 seats Coalition
4 seats Greens
12 seats Others
” It’s not falling over the line because it isn’t a win by a “majority of 1”, it’s a win by a majority of 3!”
It’s also 19 more than the Opposition, with a cross-bench that is mostly left or centrist, closer to the Government on most matters than it is to the right-wing dominated Opposition.
Good Morning
Alpo
If winning seats was down to statistics the statisticians would be the government. Not the politicians.
No matter what party they are from.
Statistics is a great tool but overdoing statistics in politics is what led to underestimating the threat of Trump and yes statistics as a tool did say there was a chance of Trump winning.
“C@tmomma says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 8:26 am”
Re: Frank Bongiorno and the Victoria state election:
‘…Yet Labor, while losing votes in some places, increased its tally of lower-house seats by one. It was another epic media fail, with wishful thinking, especially in the Murdoch press, generating hopelessly inaccurate punditry.'”
Let’s put it more explicitly, Frank: The mainstream media are losing their power as propaganda tools, desperately trying to reinvent “reality” with the purpose of getting a majority of Victorians (and Australians) to vote against their own self-interests. Once you have lost that manipulative power, it’s over and the Coalition is only left with the positive option of start working in support of the people, not their mates in the 1%, big companies and multinationals. Will Dutton be able to turn the Coalition around in the People’s direction?…. I don’t think so!… Therefore, expect more terms in opposition for the Coalition.
Re majority sizes in our HoR: welcome to the world of multi-party democracy. Absolute majorities are like gold in such systems, and indicate a thumping mandate from the electorate for that party to govern pretty much as they would be expected to, given perceptions of that party’s overall left-right position tempered by specific election campaign promises. NZ is well used to it by now.
Greens members/supporters should take note of this, when framing their expectations of the governing party’s amenability to their agenda.
Countdown to Prime Minister Albanese, resplendent in Green and Gold, presenting World Cup trophy to Sam Kerr.
“Billy Kaplan says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 9:33 am”
I fully agree about the limitations of both sampling and inference in political polling and its statistics. On the other hand, before an election what can we do? It’s either sampling the voters to get an idea of where they stand (some even look at the odds from betting agencies), speculate on the ground of each one’s wishful thinking, read entrails… or shut up and not comment on the winning chances of the various parties in the lead up to an election.
Good luck if anyone wants to shut up commenters in a psephological website like this one… 🙂
#weatheronPB
Under the doona,
life moves and stretches its limbs,
staying cool and safe.
“Steve777 says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 9:31 am
” It’s not falling over the line because it isn’t a win by a “majority of 1”, it’s a win by a majority of 3!”
It’s also 19 more than the Opposition, with a cross-bench that is mostly left or centrist, closer to the Government on most matters than it is to the right-wing dominated Opposition.”
Very good point, Steve!
citizen says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 8:24 am
Please shed a tear for these little Aussie battlers.
East coast gas producers fear they could soon be ordered to break long-term export agreements amid warnings that fossil fuel price caps will stunt new supply projects and increase the need for regulators to use emergency powers to avert future winter shortfalls.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/lng-giants-fear-export-curbs-as-east-coast-supply-doubts-deepen-20221218-p5c77n.html
——————————————————————————————
The east coast gas producers can choose to be the problem or the solution. It only looks worse for them if mandatory triggers have to be enforced by the government and at the same time, the broad perception is likely to be that it strengthens the government’s position.
Thanks for the AFR quotes BiB.
Regarding that AFR opinion on “Labor’s first year in office”, it seems that they have already forgotten who was running the joint during the first third of this year, but on the flip side, the Albanese government does seem to have erased their focus on the former government.
I like the way the SMH is trying to twist the fact that the NSW coalition has backflipped on a proposal to build an indigenous cultural centre into it all being Labor’s fault, because, you know, Paul Keating made a suggestion.
East coast gas producers fear they could soon be ordered to break long-term export agreements amid warnings that fossil fuel price caps will stunt new supply projects and increase the need for regulators to use emergency powers to avert future winter shortfalls.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/lng-giants-fear-export-curbs-as-east-coast-supply-doubts-deepen-20221218-p5c77n.html
Sounds like fear mongering to me. 😐
Fulvio Sammut @ #72 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 10:09 am
Though, if Keating had never made the proposal, Buruk would have gone ahead as intended.
However, by way of compensatory decisions, putting it now into The Australian Museum, it receives a pass mark from me.
Yes, Cat, isn’t it great that no one is listening anymore?
Bit harsh
“Daniel LoBasso
@d_money_03
·
5h
We have witnessed one of the best games of all time and Martin Tyler has called this like it’s Central Coast vs Wellington at 5pm on a Sunday in front of 500 fans.”
Q: However, by way of compensatory decisions, putting it now into The Australian Museum, it receives a pass mark from me.
I think they are putting it into The Museum of Sydney…..which is just dumb on many levels.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/12/19/return-of-the-track-open-thread/#comment-4033557
Nine/ FewFacts/ 2GB is clearly sCam?
And there was also “an 88-year low for the party” referring to the PV …
The idea that a cap on domestic (not export) prices at a level that is higher than the price was last year when the industry was still perfectly profitable = nationalisation is so fucking stupid, and Bludgers who think it’s clever to play into accepting it as true are not being smart or funny. If it was nationalisation we would be getting to keep for taxpayers all that massive export price-gouging profit the gas companies still get to keep making…
Confessions – the idea that the next World Cup will not be front and centre in the news for a month is laughable. This World Cup was subdued compared to the usual because of being in Qatar. The next World Cup will be bigger; will take place in America; people will be eager to celebrate who boycotted or toned it down over Qatari human rights abuses; and for Australian purposes, the timezone means that matches in the American evening primetime slots will take place during the Australian day, not during the wee hours.
If you don’t want to see World Cup coverage wall to wall for a solid month in 4 years, I suggest making your travel arrangements now – possibly to Mars, at the very least to a remote cave in the Himalayas.
@shellbell: We can only hope that the hometown factor somehow does it for us, since the Olympics the wheels seem to have come off the Matildas and that 7-0 tonking by Spain was only 6 months ago (edit- although they did do well in those friendlies last month didn’t they; in the midst of everything going on I had forgotten about that. So some form has returned). We’re lucky we’re the hosts or we wouldn’t have even qualified for the World Cup this time around due to going out in the quarter finals of the Asian Cup this year.
Torchbearer @ #77 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 10:21 am
Do you mean the new one in Paramatta?
Fulvio Sammut @ #75 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 10:14 am
I don’t think we should celebrate too soon, FS. These people know that you have to grind people’s resistance to their message down over months and years until the next election. They will take any skerrick of news that can be weaponised against the government and blast it out over the media. The Albanese government will have to box clever to avoid being knocked out.
Thank you BK and sprocket_ for the AFR links and commentary. Notably, the Coalition is preferred for managing “defence and national security”.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/voters-want-price-caps-and-more-gas-extracted-new-poll-20221218-p5c796
The question arises, why is the Coalition preferred on defence and national security? It seems counterintuitive until you consider that we’re a conservative bunch mostly relying on others to tell us what’s important and why. So, evidence has to be stark before minds will change, and which in turn means:
(1) Only a failure by the Coalition to defend Australia against hostile attack will change the mindset. Labor’s successfully doing the same won’t (change the mindset). At best it might even things a bit. And even that isn’t worth contemplating.
(2) Since national security is a nuanced concept, only an admitted failure by the Coalition will change minds. And that the Coalition will never do. So again, there’s little Labor can do to turn that perception around.
Socratessays:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 8:54 am
Who in their right mind thinks the Liberals are better at managing Defense?
_____________________
You obviously have more faith in Marles than the rest of Australia.
The ultimate factional hack is how most people would view him.
Museum of Sydney is built on the remains of Phillip’s first government house in Bridge St, a great collection of the first 20 years of the colony but not in the first line of attractions in Sydney.
The symbolism of placing the centre there is strong
And yet John Curtin was Australia’s great war time PM, some people have shit-for-brains 🙄
speaking of s… tayloymerde with his foul slurs is back… no most people wouldn’t
Another hopeful development in harnessing cheap renewable energy!
Extracting hydrogen from seawater. Might also be used on saline groundwater inland.
You still have the issue of even more saline leftovers!
https://newatlas.com/energy/hydrogen-electrolysis-seawater/
I think a significant reason why the Liberals rate higher on defence and national security is that they are perceived to be stronger on the alliance with the U.S, which remains very popular out there.
“nath says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 7:46 am
Since when has winning with a majority of 1 not falling over the line?”
It’s not falling over the line because it isn’t a win by a “majority of 1”, it’s a win by a majority of 3!
The centre-left effectively have a majority of eleven (and a total of 81 seats), when you add the four Green MHRs to the ALP total of seventy-seven. This is almost as many as when the Rudd government was first elected in 2007.
The Teals are centre-right. They are right wing in every way except for the environment, social issues and the rights of women, which in every Western democracy except for the USA are non-issues.
Of course, in a mirror-image world, if the Coalition got 77 seats they would be described not as “falling over the line” but as having “achieved a decisive victory”.
The ALP hold the majority of Seats in the Lower House, the House of Government
That is it holds more seats than the combined numbers of every other Party and Independents
How many Seats do the Liberal Party hold?
How many Seats do the LNP hold?
How many Seats do the National Party hold?
How many Seats do Independents hold?
How many Seats do the Greens hold?
How many Seats does Katter hold?
IF all of these other MP’s join together to oppose the Government , Labor still holds a majority
Who else is in a position, given the Seats they currently hold, to command a majority on the floor of the Lower House?
And defeat the Government
The AFR “journalist” would better spend his time looking for a moderately qualified barber
To educate as to what a haircut looks like
Arky
“ Confessions – the idea that the next World Cup will not be front and centre in the news for a month is laughable. This World Cup was subdued compared to the usual because of being in Qatar. The next World Cup will be bigger; will take place in America; people will be eager to celebrate who boycotted or toned it down over Qatari human rights abuses; and for Australian purposes, the timezone means that matches in the American evening primetime slots will take place during the Australian day, not during the wee hours.
If you don’t want to see World Cup coverage wall to wall for a solid month in 4 years, I suggest making your travel arrangements now – possibly to Mars, at the very least to a remote cave in the Himalayas.”
——————————————————————————————-
As I’ve noted before, even wars can be subject to the universal (but often unrecognised) unscientific laws of the Soccer World Cup. Having plotted hostilities in Lebanon in the 1998 World Cup for a month, no attacks occurred during games except at the half time breaks. Priorities!
Q: The symbolism of placing the centre there is strong
Putting the indigenous centre on the site of the first Permanent European building is SOOOOOOOO wrong.
Arky @ #78 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 10:37 am
Indeed. Makes you wonder why Labor is still buying this claptrap, doesn’t it?
I mean, what other possible explanation could there be for Labor’s shambolic and ineffective energy policies?
It’s just a complete mystery, isn’t it?
Do you not see it as a triumph?
Taylormade: “You obviously have more faith in Marles than the rest of Australia. The ultimate factional hack is how most people would view him.”
Thank you, Mrs Slocombe:
… “and I am unanimous in this.”
Taylormade says:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 11:03 am
Socratessays:
Monday, December 19, 2022 at 8:54 am
Who in their right mind thinks the Liberals are better at managing Defense?
_____________________
You obviously have more faith in Marles than the rest of Australia.
The ultimate factional hack is how most people would view him.
——————————————————————————————-
These things (such as Defence) can only be truly judged on the results.
How did that work out over nine years of the Coalition (I tender massive overspends and abject failures for submarines, ships, tanks, AFVs, helicopters and fighter aircraft just to name a few)?
The SmearStralian still getting drops from Liberal HQ – this one on the post-election review comes with a stench attached..
The paper’s political editor Simon Benson and chief political correspondent Geoff Chambers report:
The Australian understands that a key finding of the report, which will be handed to the federal executive this week, is that the grassroots of the party had collapsed amid a failure to reflect local communities.
Too many states were now also controlled by factional arrangements, were being ruled by personality cults and fiefdoms with little incentives to change because of the fear of losing internal power.
It is understood that a key recommendation in the review – led by former Liberal Party federal director Brian Loughnane and opposition finance spokeswoman Jane Hume – will be to break the stranglehold of those in control of the state divisions.
“ Despite suffering severe setbacks over the first 10 months of war, the Russian military is now laying plans for mass infantry attacks akin to the tactics employed by the Soviet Union during World War II, the adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, said in written responses to questions.”
In the words of John McEnroe, “you cannot be serious!”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/18/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-winter.html
Oakeshott Country @ #84 Monday, December 19th, 2022 – 11:06 am
Stolen land.
#TreatyNow
“I mean, what other possible explanation could there be for Labor’s shambolic and ineffective energy policies?”
Alright, I’ll bite.
Which policies are ineffective and why are they shambolic?