I’ll publish a round-up of late horse race news tomorrow evening, but for this post I will focus on the details of tomorrow evening – in particular my live results system, which I’m confident will survive the rigours of an especially challenging election after performing well enough during the Victorian Electoral Commission’s test the other night. For those unfamiliar with it, you can see the results from the federal election here – it features projections, probability estimates, easily navigable booth results tables which I’m pretty sure will be the only place you’ll find swings at booth level, and mapped results displays if you click the button at the bottom of the page.
Given the inordinately large number of candidates, peaking at fifteen in Point Cook and Werribee (with Daniel Andrews’ seat of Mulgrave just behind on fourteen), the progress of much of the counting tomorrow night could be very slow. The VEC is also unusually leisurely in updating its results feed only every five minutes, though I personally don’t mind this – it’s about as much time as needed to absorb each new update.
In addition to the election day booth votes, for which primary vote and two-candidate preferred counts plus first preferences for the upper house will be counted on the night, counting of pre-polls and postals for the lower house will begin tomorrow evening, with the upper house to follow over the next two days. Out-of-district pre-polls and absent votes will start entering the count on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.
Allen, just earlier than planned.
Just back from voting on Barkly St in Footscray. Liberal candidate was there, as was Katie Hall, and a bunch of upper housers, but no cookers of any kind to be found.
Thumbs down to the green HTV-hander-outer-er who when a lady in front of me said she intended to vote below the line, discouraged her from doing so and told her blatantly incorrect information about how preferences work.
I voted below the line, saving the bottom spot for Bernie Finn. What a twat.
EDIT: The Green I alluded to above was NOT Bernadette Thomas, the lead candidate. It was a zealous young man.
The Age 25/11
The agency in charge of employing hundreds of apprentices involved in Victoria’s “big build” government projects is being investigated over providing funds to unions against the wishes of a public servant, and reports that people who voiced concerns about internal problems were bullied by senior managers.
_____________________
More corruption.
This time at Apprenticeships Vuctoria.
I feel like The Age is a two headed giant this week with both heads punching the other one in the face. The Apprenticeships story has been dropped by the head which thinks The Age is Matthew Guy’s dirt unit and 6pm the night before an election is an appropriate time for yet another windy story about an anti union “investigation” (no findings of course), let’s see if the other head fires back tonight with more coverage of the Liberals’ debacle on costings.
I could call the heads “Chip” and “Michael” if I was so inclined…
Taylormade says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 6:20 pm
The Age 25/11
The agency in charge of employing hundreds of apprentices involved in Victoria’s “big build” government projects is being investigated over providing funds to unions against the wishes of a public servant, and reports that people who voiced concerns about internal problems were bullied by senior managers.
_____________________
More corruption.
This time at Apprenticeships Vuctoria.
——————————————
LOL Taylormade
Word on the ground is that Labor likes its chances in Eildon (needs a 1% swing).
Have a listen to this Lib cooker for Pt Cook
https://mobile.twitter.com/SquizzSTK/status/1596040826039463937
zoomster,
I’d take that with a tablespoon of salt. Labor haven’t made any effort in Eildon: I’m pretty sure their candidate was picked only just before the close of nominations.
Am told the coppers had to remove a Freedom volunteer from the prepoll in Sale, after he verbally abused an elderly lady Labor volunteer for an extended period. Apparently was pretty ugly to watch. Not sure which day.
Richard Willingham reckons it’ll be a hung parliament tomorrow.
FWIW I think Dan the man will romp it in tomorrow. 53 – 47 is a pretty solid result in any case. ALP will lose some bark but once again the screaming meemies, clowns and LNP operatives in Murdochcracy will go home disappointed. Sad thing is they’ll never know how deluded they are , a walk in the hall of mirrors too much to ask?
Heard on the ABC 630AM in Sydney news about the sale and lease back of sewage plants in Victoria. Would be a safe bet that the same story ran in Melbourne. Surely political suicide if this story does the rounds.
Looking at betting odds from s*bet, it shows 87 seats, not showing Narrcan (lib held), which will have supplementary election.
ALP is favored to win 52 seats (-3)
Coalition is favored to win 24 seats (-3) (but maybe win naarcan back, which would mean -2)
Greens are favored to win 5 seats (+2)
Independents favoured to win 6 seats (+3)
The story of the night should be, how did the media get it so wrong, and who specifically is responsible.
EDIT: and those numbers look sensible to me, ALP on the nose a bit and Coalition not winning any fans.
Taylormade @ #102 Friday, November 25th, 2022 – 6:20 pm
That was the worst week of Matthew Guy’s stint as Victorian Opposition Leader.
But is it enough to end his tilt for the Premier’s job?
Revelations of a secret lobster dinner with alleged crime figure Tony Madafferi uncovered by an ABC-Fairfax investigation are not yet fatal.
In the broader public there are plenty of voters scratching their heads about why a political leader dined with an alleged mobster.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-12/matthew-guy-survives-his-worst-week-as-opposition-leader/8799494
yabba says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:46 pm
More corruption.
That was the worst week of Matthew Guy’s stint as Victorian Opposition Leader.
But is it enough to end his tilt for the Premier’s job?
——————————-
Laughingly as a liberal it didn’t end his tilt.
I just heard Matthew Guy today visited Sovereign Hill – Ballarat, just like he was in Ballarat on the last day of the 2018 campaign, infamously thinking he was in with a shot at safe Labor seats while his heartland was burning behind him.
I look forward to he and his media buddies once again having their groupthink minority government bubble burst.
Chip is still at it as if his job depended on bringing Dan down single handily.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-curious-case-of-daniel-andrews-the-receding-premier-20221124-p5c15p.html
Scott says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 6:34 pm
Taylormade says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 6:20 pm
The Age 25/11
The agency in charge of employing hundreds of apprentices involved in Victoria’s “big build” government projects is being investigated over providing funds to unions against the wishes of a public servant, and reports that people who voiced concerns about internal problems were bullied by senior managers.
_____________________
More corruption.
This time at Apprenticeships Vuctoria.
——————————————
LOL Taylormade
中华人民共和国
LOL Taylormade
Watching ABC special – they all seem convinced Labor is in trouble and heading for minority.
I can’t see Labor getting fewer than 45 seats. So all these media people by their own narrative will turn any narrow Labor win into a triumph against the odds – possibly not their intention!
“bug1says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:38 pm
Looking at betting odds from s*bet, it shows 87 seats, not showing Narrcan (lib held), which will have supplementary election.
ALP is favored to win 52 seats (-3)
Coalition is favored to win 24 seats (-3) (but maybe win naarcan back, which would mean -2)
Greens are favored to win 5 seats (+2)
Independents favoured to win 6 seats (+3)
The story of the night should be, how did the media get it so wrong, and who specifically is responsible.
EDIT: and those numbers look sensible to me, ALP on the nose a bit and Coalition not winning any fans.”
bug, that scenario looks realistic, unlike the deluded fantasies that other people are hanging their hopes from.
“Rocket Rocket says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 8:22 pm
Watching ABC special – they all seem convinced Labor is in trouble and heading for minority.”
The ABC is fast descending into Murdoch/9Net nonsense…. Enough of Ita, we need a more intelligent ABC!
“Arky says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 8:07 pm
I just heard Matthew Guy today visited Sovereign Hill – Ballarat”
I bet that the idiot spent the whole day looking for “gold” in the little stream…
Alposays:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 8:35 pm
“Arky says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 8:07 pm
I just heard Matthew Guy today visited Sovereign Hill – Ballarat”
I bet that the idiot spent the whole day looking for “gold” in the little stream…
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
A bushranger at Ballarat nah – I’m just awaiting another gold find wow – Newspoll Vic WOW
Tomorrow is it.
We’ll have a pile on of duxes and dukes/duchesses amongst the candidates and the press.
Or some variation of dunces and dills perhaps.
Murdoch press is in the gutter and regardless of tomorrow’s outcome, it will remain there for the duration of last century’s surviving remnant tree media.
The liberals and their organs have put in all out there.
Anything less will see the liberals demoted for a decade.
Guy looks and feels like a loser whatever.
The irony of a slim possibility of defeat for Dangerous Dan, in some unknown guise or another, Andrews will be remembered as a great Premier, a doer, a strong politician and a great leader.
Just how does anybody see meritless Matthew and his motely crew of misfits providing a better government foe Victoria ?
Long live the Prince of Mulgravia !
AFR
“Andrews backlash makes Victoria poll ‘desperately close’
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is bracing for what Labor Party president Wayne Swan has warned will be a “desperately close” election, as Liberal voter tracking suggests there is a 50-50 chance the poll could result in a minority government.”
Web search of;
Wayne swan “desperately close”
Finds no relevent results apart from the AFR story itself and the 2010 Queensland election
50% chance of minority govt? That’s not a close election if the other 50% is majority Lab govt.
How dumb do they think we are?
Anyways, Newspoll will be a bit later tonight…. About 10.30pm. They have to work out how to spin it for the murdoch front pages first.
Just read that AFR article. Nothing new. Just feelpinion.
The AFR story is like much of what we have read, trying to spin something to give the illusion that its close, and Lib voters shouldnt give up.
ABC going along with the Danvotinginanotherelectoratehe must beintrouble!!! bootstrap by saying he was “forced to defend” his actions.
I think it’s perfectly reasonable given that certain people have been talking about turning Dan Andrews into a “Red/Pink Mist” that he casts his vote without too much pomp and ceremony and get it done with minimal attention.
For those who pay attention to these things (or are just bored waiting for Newspoll), the odds have drifted out against the Coalition and minority government on SportsBet:
– $6.00 for a Coalition win;
– $3.85 for a Labor minority;
– $3.10 for a hung parliament.
Can’t help but wonder if some people have already seen Newspoll, which is apparently coming out at 10.30pm rather than 9.30pm.
PS For what little it’s worth, in Mulgrave Ian Cook is back out to $3.75. (According to @Al Pal, he was at $3.00 about 3.5 hours ago.) Andrews is at $1.25.
Kirsdarkesays:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 9:05 pm
I think it’s perfectly reasonable given that certain people have been talking about turning Dan Andrews into a “Red/Pink Mist” that he casts his vote without too much pomp and ceremony and get it done with minimal attention.
_____________________
I thought he may wanted to head down to Portsea for the night to spend some time with his benefactors and then get back into Melbourne tomorrow afternoon.
There apparently is some evidence in the polsci literature that says that, while campaigns do make a difference and public opinion does change during campaigns, when voters go into the ballot box they rely on their priors rather than everything they learnt during the campaign. According to this line of research (which has a giant exception for referendums btw), the polls early in the campaign are more predictive than the polls late in the campaign.
I have not so far investigated how much this applies in elections in Australia, nor how much it applies to state elections in Australia or any other country. Nor do I know how it applies to elections which, like modern Australian elections, take place over two weeks – with polling presumably improving as it asks “have you already voted? who did you vote for?”. I have merely heard the headline of this research reported.
Therefore, in order to emotionally associate myself with the research and perhaps to motivate me to investigate it further, I hereby publicly commit myself to the prediction that the final results will be more reflective of the early polling than the late polling. I’m very reluctant to actually predict a Labor blowout, especially here. I’m aware of significant exceptions e.g. the Canadian result last year, where the campaign saw a significant shift away from the Liberals. But if I end up with egg on my face, I’ll probably try and search out the actual evidence and try to reproduce it and come up with a more predictable model. And therefore, my prediction is effectively a prediction of a healthy Labor majority.
I also somewhat want to add to the common wisdom about federal drag, that says a federal government of the same party tends to hurt a state government, some of the evidence about honeymoon elections. One common finding in systems with separate legislative and executive elections is that a legislative election shortly after the executive election tends to result in a boost for the government party, whereas a legislative election towards the end of the executive term tends to hurt the government party. It is probably even more bold, but if it weren’t for the abovementioned research, I would at least predict that the Andrews government won’t be harmed by the federal Labor government so early in their first term. I think there are probably more people out there than you think, who think something that amounts to “however much I hate having experienced the lockdowns, if I vote for the Liberals or protest parties, it will harm federal Labor’s ability to work for my interest in (whatever motivated their federal election vote)”. An election held next year will probably operate in a different landscape: this time next year, I would expect Vic Labor to be seriously dragged down, and this might be the last election they win unless they change leader. (Honestly, I think this is probably already supported: the polling has never been so bad for Labor that it should really be called dragged. We consider it bad only because it shows no evidence of being a wipeout for the Libs. Federal drag just can’t be imputed to an election where the overwhelmingly most likely results are sameparty majority or sameparty minority.)
I think there’s lots of reasons to argue against these kinds of abstract positions that have nothing to do with the campaign or the specific circumstances of this election. But I want to see how they do, and therefore they’re my predictions for Saturday night. To make it measurable, let it stand as: closer to 55.8, Bonham’s early campaign aggregate, than whatever his final aggregate is.
If I were to say something specific about the campaign, it’s got to be that the media is dead, Jim. Is there a way out of this deathspiral for journalism? We’re theoretically a liberal democracy but our professional journalism and media would be make Orban and even Putin blush.
Lots of interest in the Vic election. No surprises. The provenance of the following image, I think, is:
-Printed in The Age.
-Posted on Twitter by @gizmosudo
-Reposted on Mastodon by Van Badham
https://twitter.com/gizmosudo/status/1595939397093904386
https://mastodon.social/@vanbadham/109403963357806864
54.5 from Newspoll, it seems. Now that is scary!
Thanks to Kevin Bonham Newspoll ALP 38 L-NP 35 Green 12 others 15 TPP 54.5% ALP
HELL YEAH.
GO DAN
Newspoll Victoria
TPP: ALP 54.5 (+0.5) L/NP 45.5 (-0.5)
Primary: ALP 38 (+1) L/NP 35 (-2) GRN 12 (-1) OTH 15 (+3)
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/victorian-election-despite-a-swing-newspoll-puts-daniel-andrews-on-track-to-win/news-story/e14d47a0f60223d09d05c124a620a48a
Load up the truck convoy with scrubbing brushed and soap. Mercy dash to Murdoch and Nine HQs!
A lot of egg on faces needing to be cleaned off.
When will the media learn, victorians aren’t falling for their shit any more.
Spin that, Chip!
Newspoll points to a 3% swing against labor from the last election and that’s roughly what people in the government have been telling me for 18 months.
Excellent! That increases my confidence in my prediction, and it has moved in the right direction since the last one.
Rod Harradine @ #135 Friday, November 25th, 2022 – 9:39 pm
The Newspoll on 2018 election eve was 53.5.
“… that’s roughly what people in the government have been telling me for 18 months.“
But … but … “Labor’s heading for minority government”!
That’s what the media chuckleheads have been telling us for months.
New thread.
What I would suggest is that instead of ranting on sites such as this you use the email function alongside the “journalists” such as Le Grand et al to email them calling them out
The more who do this the better
Better still is that you will get an abusive response calling out your parentage etc etc
The response makes the effort of emailing directly all the more rewarding
So go to it people
They get to publish what THEY think but do not tolerate what others may think in response
Bystander says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 10:07 pm
Trent
I have appreciated your insightful comments here over the last couple of weeks. It was obvious from your first post that you had a good feel for the situation and knew what you were talking about. This Newspoll has now proven that you were absolutely right.
____________
+1
I note also Work to Rule’s observation that Newspoll’s 2018 Vic election eve ALP 2PP was 53.5 – the election yielded 57.3.
Whilst I don’t expect it, I would absolutely love to see 58.3 (i.e. Newspoll underestimate of 3.8) tomorrow night!
Does the ALP guy who almost won Brighton last time have a driver licence now?