Victorian election minus one day

A quick overview of what to expect tomorrow night and in the days to follow.

I’ll publish a round-up of late horse race news tomorrow evening, but for this post I will focus on the details of tomorrow evening – in particular my live results system, which I’m confident will survive the rigours of an especially challenging election after performing well enough during the Victorian Electoral Commission’s test the other night. For those unfamiliar with it, you can see the results from the federal election here – it features projections, probability estimates, easily navigable booth results tables which I’m pretty sure will be the only place you’ll find swings at booth level, and mapped results displays if you click the button at the bottom of the page.

Given the inordinately large number of candidates, peaking at fifteen in Point Cook and Werribee (with Daniel Andrews’ seat of Mulgrave just behind on fourteen), the progress of much of the counting tomorrow night could be very slow. The VEC is also unusually leisurely in updating its results feed only every five minutes, though I personally don’t mind this – it’s about as much time as needed to absorb each new update.

In addition to the election day booth votes, for which primary vote and two-candidate preferred counts plus first preferences for the upper house will be counted on the night, counting of pre-polls and postals for the lower house will begin tomorrow evening, with the upper house to follow over the next two days. Out-of-district pre-polls and absent votes will start entering the count on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

148 comments on “Victorian election minus one day”

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  1. john proccuto will be the opposition leader

    I presume you meant John Pesutto. I have no doubt it would be Pesutto but the catch is he has to win Hawthorn first which is no certainty.

    Its already been mentioned but the view its going come down between Pesutto and teal candidate Melissa Lowe for Hawthorn. The Labor incumbent Mp John Kennedy contracted covid on the eve of pre-poll it was reported.

  2. I would be surprised and disappointed if Altmann doesn’t even get into the TCP in South-West Coast. I don’t think the ALP candidate is very well liked and 2 former ALP state candidates are campaigning for Altmann over her. But she doesn’t have the funding of the teals (she said her campaign has cost about 20k). I think James Purcell only entered last minute (and directed preferences to the ALP) to try and stop her from getting in after she wrote articles about his interests in the horse racing industry years ago.

  3. Lukesays:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 9:35 am
    I do love the post election reactions from the losing sides in Aus politics. There’s the initial “this is not happening”, that turns into “how could everyone else be so stupid!” followed by picking the one or two scapegoats to pin the blame on. Matthew looks set to be the ‘fall guy’ again.
    I still have the ABC’s 2019 Federal election night coverage on my hard drive.
    Wong’s performance was hilarious. Anthony Green had called it but she was still in denial. She kept saying it was too early and she wanted to see more votes come in.
    Funny funny funny.

  4. My view on Hawthorn now is that if Melissa Lowe fails to overtake John Kennedy to make the 2CP count (a real possibility), then Pesutto will regain the seat for the Liberals as Lowe’s preferences will probably split more in Labor’s favour but probably only by about 60-40 which would still get Pesutto over 50% given his primary vote is likely to be around 40%.

    If Melissa Lowe manages to overtake John Kennedy, she will beat Pesutto off the back of Labor, Greens and AJP preferences which would flow more like 85-15, nowhere near enough for Pesutto to get from 40% to 50%.

  5. Guy will be cursing Morrison right now – the news could sway a few votes that make all the difference.

    Morrison’s secret ministries were ‘corrosive of trust in government’: report

    Scott Morrison’s decision to secretly swear himself in to five extra ministries was “corrosive of trust in government” according to a report handed down by a former High Court judge.
    8 minutes ago at 12:25

  6. Justin

    Probably easier for an independent in somewhere like Shepparton with one major population centre. Altmann I think is seen as too Port Fairy centred. People can be pretty parochial!

    There are a few other independents including at least one anti-vaxxer. A few candidates are ‘recycled’ from previous party incarnations I think. Purcell was in upper house 2014-18.

    I think in the medium term Labor could win this seat – there are strong Labor areas in Warrnambool and Portland, and Labor held the old seat of Portland a few times.

    I think it will be close at the 3CP stage but I narrowly favour Labor to be second then. The Liberals would maybe be more at risk if Altmann does finish second.

  7. Anthony Green had called it but she was still in denial. She kept saying it was too early and she wanted to see more votes come in.

    Election night panellists on the losing side always do this because it’s not their place to concede defeat.

  8. Interesting that Murdoch media (& abc) have done little to report Guy’s Thursday PM revelation that he’ll sell off the natural monopoly of sewerage treatment plants and lease them back. How will taxpayers not get screwed by this. The corporatised water treatment gov agencies pay an annual dividend to the government as well as build and maintain infrastructure from services charges, but the libs will now see that profit go to the private sector. Privatisation is electoral poison in Victoria, so why is this major announcement being overlooked?

  9. Altmann is seen to be too Port Fairy centered? She’s based in Warrnambool though, as was the federal independent Alex Dyson. It was her reporting that actually helped turf the ALP candidate and the rest of the Warrnambool City Council (they all got voted out in 2020) over credit card rorting and dismissing the CEO which both cost a ton of taxpayer money. Purcell is the one who is based in Port Fairy.

  10. Arky @ 8.50am.
    Although I thoroughly endorse your comments regarding the longevity, as Opposition Deputy, of Leyzy Sussan, it would be a pity to lose the gravitas to which she brings to Question Time, every day.
    However, I am trying to think of who, on the Opposition benches, could replace Mr Potato Head & Leyzy.

  11. Sustainable future

    I saw the dead tree version of Herald Sun at the supermarket. Front page had some words regarding a raid. I didnt bother to venture further.

    The herald sun triggers me. Lol

  12. citizensays:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 1:01 pm
    Guy will be cursing Morrison right now

    Guy should have been cursing Morrison well before now!

    Morrison has “brought the liberal party to its knees” and with every subsequent independent investigation into the goings-on of the Morrison liberal government, the liberal party will have to carry an increasing burden of mistrust and perform miracles to drag itself into a better place.

    The Victorian election most likely will only prove that the majority of Australians distance themselves from all things political and are probably stupid enough to believe that part of the dying tree media known as the Herald Sun.
    Thankfully, tomorrow will provide some answers.

  13. This is a tweet by the infamous journo Rachel.
    She writes for the Australian
    You gotta laugh

    Rachel Baxendale

    David Davis couldn’t say how much revenue will be lost from taking $10.2bn out of Victoria’s future fund yesterday. I asked him six times. Matthew Guy still can’t say today. Whoever wins tomorrow the state budget is not going anywhere good. #springst

  14. I have no doubt John Pesutto will be Liberal opposition leader if elected, and from the point of view of reducing the temperature in State politics there is merit to a world where Labor wins but Pesutto is elected in Hawthorn (not that I would vote for that). Down the path where Labor wins and Pesutto loses again we end up with a religious right cooker sympathiser as Opposition Leader in all likelihood (if Pesutto loses, then I can’t see Southwick winning, and Captain Vote Rigging Claims wouldn’t be an improvement either anyway).

  15. ‘Sussan Ley is asked about the Victorian election … Ley uses the question to stir up a bit of trouble questioning the Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, defying the tradition of casting his vote on election day. ….

    Ley: “By the way Patricia, did you not think it was odd that the premier voted I think two days before the election? What’s he hiding from?”

    Patricia Karvelas: “Matthew Guy has also pre-polled.”

    Ley rapidly moved on …’


    Imagine thinking anybody would give a shit about when a politician chooses to vote.

  16. Any clues if Newspoll will be available on line tonight. And Essential or Morgan? They will all have been in the field Tues, Wed, Thurs. And the chances of a single seat poll in Mulgrave?

  17. Al Pal – Newspoll is expected tonight, and will be in the Oz print edition tomorrow. No word on any other polls. Essential has not been heard from at all this election, and no hint one is planned. Roy Morgan’s SMS poll may be the last thing they do this week, they haven’t suggested any different. No one has suggested any seat polls are due, and one on the last day seems unlikely.

  18. I’m only expecting a Newspoll, and *maybe* a surprise Essential (I think they had one poll in September but that was it).

    My guess is that the Morgan poll a few days ago was its last.

  19. My plan tomorrow is voting in the morning in St Kilda, going to Thornbury in the afternoon for drinks, head back home by 6pm to watch ABC’s election coverage, with William’s live results up on a separate screen to track the booth-level swings in the key seats I’m interested in.

    Hopefully the night goes well and there are no nasty surprises.

  20. I don’t know who’d still pay for exit polls to be done (real exit polls I mean, not some cooker surveying the votes of 150 people willing to talk to him at a pre-poll and then declaring that that’s an exit poll). They are rarely accurate and they give you something to talk about in the news cycle for about 60-90 minutes max before being superceded by actual vote counts, doesn’t seem like a great investment.

  21. You’re assuming he paid? Or did he send out some of his volunteers to select people walking out the door for 10 mins?

    If he paid even a cent to someone who’d call a completely detail-free sample of 159 voters “an exit poll”, it was too much.

    If the figures are somehow accurate, it will be by coincidence.

  22. Kos has an interesting thread, where he makes the point that because it’s not a two-horse race (numerous seats won’t be Lab-Lib), f0r the Liberal Party to form govt they may need a uniform 10% swing across the whole state, including seats they’ve never won, and basically convince millennials to vote conservative en masse. Makes me feel a little better…

    Millennials are now the biggest voting bloc in Melbourne, and only 22% of them are voting for the Liberals.

    Jeremy was right at least that it’s “fascinating”, or at least, there’s a lot of crazy moving parts to discuss. And I guess he might be right that a minority govt is increasingly likely.

  23. Kennett is a tragic has-been seeking relevance. Murdoch is so desperate to attack Andrews that he gives this rant front page treatment

    Former premier Jeff Kennett has questioned whether Daniel Andrews’ social media team doctored an image of him voting with his family. (Hun online)

  24. @Expat: No, I’m assuming his “poll” was literally he asked 150 people who were willing to talk to him who they voted for (or one of his offsiders did it), with the obvious self-selection issue quite on top of all the other reasons why it wouldn’t be scientific . My comment about payment was to do with the prospect of having exit polls to look at tomorrow afternoon, I don’t know who’s willing to pay for such things to be done in this day and age where they have such short shelf-life and little accuracy.

    The Libs have zero chance, all their hope of Labor minority government involves Labor losing seats to people who aren’t the Liberal Party and in many cases are to the left of Labor, which isn’t a great recipe for the Liberals to get government back.

  25. I think their overall strategy is to pull off something of a 1922 Australian federal election result, where Billy Hughes’ Nationalists were reduced to a minority, and a key condition of support by Earle Page’s Country party was that he would resign as leader, which they got, and Stanley Bruce replaced him as Prime Minister.

    So their coordinated aim is to reduce Labor to minority, then have the crossbench give an ultimatum “We’ll only support Labor if Dan Andrews resigns as leader”, given that the Coalition gaining 18 seats seems too far-fetched according to the polling numbers.

  26. @citizen: More Murdoch Royal Commission fodder.

    This isn’t news, it’s just spruiking stupid conspiracy theories to try and turns parts of the Australian community into QAnon-type conspiracy nutters with misinformation just as Fox has done in the USA.

  27. @Kirsdarke: The trouble with that fantasy land scenario is that I can’t imagine either the Greens nor the teal-type of independents doing it. It’s pretty unlikely Labor would be so far into minority government that Labor + Greens wouldn’t have a majority by themselves.

  28. Hey all, will I receive confirmation that my postal vote has been processed by the VEC? Both myself and a mate posted our vote out a couple days ago but no text, email or update with the tracking number

  29. @Arky

    Yeah, that’s probably right. Even if Labor is reduced to minority, the overall result will probably be more like Queensland 1998 and 2015 where they only needed 1 from the crossbench for confidence and supply and they came to something of a comfortable arrangement (although Queensland’s 2015-17 term did have its unique difficulties).

  30. Has anybody who knows what they’re doing tried using Antony Green’s LC calculators to work out what’s likely to happen? I had a little play with them myself, but I’m a bit of a clue-free zone when it comes to guessing realistic numbers.

    I was hoping Kevin Bonham would give us the same kind of accurate insights he provided four years ago, but alas.

  31. @EightES

    I think pretty much everyone is holding their guesses at the moment for tonight’s Newspoll. After that, the experts will probably put down their predictions.

  32. Labor notionally holds 56 seats and the Green 3. There is no way the greens support a minority LNP government over a minority ALP government

    45 seats are needed for an outright majority. With 44 seats it would be extremely unlikely the ALP wouldn’t be able to get supply and confidence from at least Independent as to avoid a deadlocked parliament.

    For the ALP to not retain government, they would need to lose at least 16 notionally held seats (excluding any seats lost to the greens) and that is assuming none of those seats are lost to Independents that would support the ALP to from minority government and neither of the current Independents would support an ALP minority.

    An LNP government is extremely unlikely.

  33. Cook has come in from 5.50 three days ago, to 3 late this afternoon. And it’s moving quickly.( Just for the
    punt I took 5.75 last week)
    That does not mean a change of Government, but I would not rule out a new ALP Premier.
    I’m coming to the view that For Mulgrave voters it’s personal. I think Cook will be down to 2.75 early tonight and Andrews out to 1.50.

  34. Al Pal says:
    Friday, November 25, 2022 at 5:31 pm
    Cook has come in from 5.50 three days ago, to 3 late this afternoon. And it’s moving quickly.( Just for the
    punt I took 5.75 last week)

    I hope you bet big.

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  36. Oh puhleeze, there’s a snowball’s chance in hell of Andrews losing Mulgrave tomorrow. Those odds are just following the weight of money — not very much in the scheme of things — being plonked down the sorts of credulous rubes who read the Herald-Sun and bet online.

  37. Given Lotto returns around 55-60% of money spent I consider it a horrible waste of money.

    As I would betting against Dan on Saturday, but each to their own.

  38. This reminds me of the 2013 federal election when the betting markets were speculating Rudd was in trouble in Griffith, whereas in the end he held the seat, ditto in relation to Andrews and the seat of Mulgrave in 2022.
    OK, in the event that Andrews lost his seat but Labor stayed in government, albeit in a minority situation, who would be the next Premier? Jacinta Allen? Tim Pallas?

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