I’ll publish a round-up of late horse race news tomorrow evening, but for this post I will focus on the details of tomorrow evening – in particular my live results system, which I’m confident will survive the rigours of an especially challenging election after performing well enough during the Victorian Electoral Commission’s test the other night. For those unfamiliar with it, you can see the results from the federal election here – it features projections, probability estimates, easily navigable booth results tables which I’m pretty sure will be the only place you’ll find swings at booth level, and mapped results displays if you click the button at the bottom of the page.
Given the inordinately large number of candidates, peaking at fifteen in Point Cook and Werribee (with Daniel Andrews’ seat of Mulgrave just behind on fourteen), the progress of much of the counting tomorrow night could be very slow. The VEC is also unusually leisurely in updating its results feed only every five minutes, though I personally don’t mind this – it’s about as much time as needed to absorb each new update.
In addition to the election day booth votes, for which primary vote and two-candidate preferred counts plus first preferences for the upper house will be counted on the night, counting of pre-polls and postals for the lower house will begin tomorrow evening, with the upper house to follow over the next two days. Out-of-district pre-polls and absent votes will start entering the count on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.
They don’t start to count upper house votes until Sunday?
Has that always been the case?
I was more looking forward to that.
Thanks William
The info about the leisurely VEC 5 minute updates is also useful for armchair amateurs, to avoid desperate refreshing of screens amid the confusion of election night
In the meantime another day, another Liberal right wing religious nutter scandal . As they say, it’s often not the scandal itself that gets you, it’s the cover up:
Shame on you’: Liberal figure caught using 007 pics and fake identity for dirty tricks
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/shame-on-you-liberal-figure-caught-using-007-pics-and-fake-identity-for-dirty-tricks-20221124-p5c10j.html
It will be a fascinating election night , thanks again to William for his hard work on this site.
Andrews is certainly a polarising figure, you either love him or hate him with a passion, I agree with previous posters in other threads that the media have been successful in linking the man to the lingering anger about the 2020 and 2021 lockdowns. Of course if the Premier hadn’t locked down Melbourne, more people would have died, a fact the anti Andrews media pack ignores
Generally electoral commissions tend to be cautious at including non-incumbent Greens or independents in the preference count… that may mean a handful of seats can’t be called on election night and thats without factoring in postals. Especially in seats where the primary is going to be sloshed all over the place like Melton, South-West Coast, and the many 3 cornered contests in Southern Metro… also including the 5 seats where there are two coalition candidates
“Evan says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:12 am
…Andrews is certainly a polarising figure, you either love him or hate him with a passion”
Yeah, Andrews is VERY “polarising”:
Latest 2PP from opinion polls
Roy Morgan………………….55% ALP
Resolve Strategic………….52.7% ALP
Freshwater Strategy…….56% ALP
What about Better Premier?
Pollster…………………………….Andrews……….Guy
Resolve Strategic………………48%……………..34%
Morgan………………………………65.5%…………..34.5%
Freshwater Strategy…………..40%…………….28%
Newspoll…………………………….52%……………..33%
So, yes there is a significant degree of “polarisation” in the electorate, with a majority strongly supporting the ALP and Andrews as Premier and a minority supporting the Coalition and the Lobster!!
Victorians are ready to vote now….. 🙂
So basically by the end of today half the state will probably have voted.
Daily updates on postal and early votes for the 2022 State election. The early voting period runs from Monday 14 November to Friday 25 November.
Date Early votes Postal votes returned
Monday 14 November 115,065 0
Tuesday 15 November 154,829 0
Wednesday 16 November 131,631 0
Thursday 17 November 154,663 669
Friday 18 November 141,212 9,069
Saturday 19 November 120,502 15
Sunday 20 November 48 0
Monday 21 November 166,225 43,581
Tuesday 22 November 186,114 57,488
Wednesday 23 November 200,013 97,017
Thursday 24 November 263,849 64,940
Total 1,634,151 272,779
Former Liberal party member Sally Capp won’t be popular with Matthew Guy et al or cookers, with her blasphemies about COVID being good for Melbourne:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/lockdown-to-boomtown-lord-mayor-says-covid-was-good-for-melbourne-20221124-p5c13v.html
After tomorrow who will be replacing Matt/Matthew Guy as the liberal party and opposition leader
I have just been looking at the Greens, Cookers and Teals costings. Most illuminating!
Boerwar says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:45 am
I have just been looking at the Greens, Cookers and Teals costings. Most illuminating!
—
Cookers can count?
It’s amusing to watch The Age finally remove the stick from its arse and admit that even though they hate Andrews there’s no way in good conscience they can recommend a win for Guy (bonus points for editorially calling out News Corp propaganda, and for acknowledging that it is Guy who is promising the greater debt and deficit for all his bluster about Labor spending).
I don’t think The Age’s endorsement moves the needle but it’s still fun.
I feel like Bachelard probably did not consult Le Grand or Smethurst on the writing of that editorial (I have often wondered, whenever someone from The Age does a callback to the African Gangs scare, whether they avoid Le Grand in the lunchroom seeing as he was part of it and worked at News at the time).
Must otherwise be awkward. “Hey Chip, what was it like helping Matthew Guy do racist dog whistles? Was it like when you were a chief cheerleader for the cookers breaking COVID restrictions?”
It’s telling that first Chip then yesterday Bevan Shields at the SMH both deleted their twitter accounts.
Losers gonna lose.
Whats the prediction for how many TCP will feature a non-major? Last time there was 1 LIB v GRN, 2 LIB v IND (Suzanna Sheed), 1 NAT v IND (Ali Cupper), 5 ALP v GRN, 4 ALP v IND (Darryn Lyons, Oscar Yildiz, Russell Northe, Joe Garra)
“Scott says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:43 am
After tomorrow who will be replacing Matt/Matthew Guy as the liberal party and opposition leader”
Impossible to say now, we have to wait to see how many Liberals will survive this election….
Just saw a Trade’s Hall Utube addvertisment tying the liberal party to US election denial. A fair sprinkling of trump statements along side the VEC calling out the Liberal’s bad behavior.
The closing statement “The Liberals have lost the plot”.
Evan says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 7:12 am
…Andrews is certainly a polarising figure, you either love him or hate him with a passion
Only in the mind of the press. And for sure their behavior has made the cookers angrier.
The last time the Coalition actually won a seat off an incumbent (that didn’t defect from them) was the Northern Territory election…
George Megalogenis on AM, stretching a “parties like it’s 1999” comparison past breaking point.
Just something to put out there… Tim Wilson’s primary on the near 11000 vote Brighton pre poll dropped 13.6% with Zoe Daniel in the running. ALP dropped 15.9% and GRN 6.2%. With Felicity Frederico’s history, she will attract less primaries than Daniel did from the ALP and Greens but possibly more from James Newbury, who nobody really seems to like.
I’m wondering if the usual anti-everything protest in the CBD tomorrow will try and disrupt voting at the city booths.
Last Saturday’s gathering was a significantly larger crowd than usual and included the utterly charming Catherine Cumming.
Guardian blog:
‘Sussan Ley is asked about the Victorian election … Ley uses the question to stir up a bit of trouble questioning the Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, defying the tradition of casting his vote on election day. ….
Ley: “By the way Patricia, did you not think it was odd that the premier voted I think two days before the election? What’s he hiding from?”
Patricia Karvelas: “Matthew Guy has also pre-polled.”
Ley rapidly moved on …’
Ley won’t still be deputy by the next election, she’s a bad enough performer on script, her political instincts are dire.
Newspapers publish their election editorials
By Daniella Miletic
Both News Corp newspapers the Herald Sun and The Australian have backed the Coalition to win the election on Saturday, stating that Premier Daniel Andrews has an autocratic style that has tested the bounds of democracy.
This masthead said that while there are dangers in returning Labor for a third term, the Coalition is simply not ready to govern.
Traditionally, endorsements by Australian newspapers are made on the eve of an election.
Here’s a snapshot of the election editorials so far:
The Age:
The Age believes the opposition is simply not ready to govern. It has done little real renewal of personnel or policy in the past four years and has not made a compelling case for change. On most of the policy issues that matter to Victorians, Labor’s are stronger and more coherent.
Herald Sun:
Given the manifest failures of the past four years, Victoria cannot – financially or politically – afford another term of Labor and Mr Andrews’ divisive leadership.
The Australian:
Mr Andrews is a known quantity. His autocratic style has been terrible for Victoria and will leave lasting economic and emotional damage.
Oliver Sutton says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 8:51 am
Guardian blog:
‘Sussan Ley is asked about the Victorian election … Ley uses the question to stir up a bit of trouble questioning the Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, defying the tradition of casting his vote on election day. ….
Ley: “By the way Patricia, did you not think it was odd that the premier voted I think two days before the election? What’s he hiding from?”
Patricia Karvelas: “Matthew Guy has also pre-polled.”
Ley rapidly moved on …’
———
This was Ley who, mere minutes before, when asked for her reaction to Frydenberg’s comments on Scomo’s amazing , albeit covert, ministerial multi tasking, said WTTE: “PK, That would be getting into political commentary. I’ve never done that”. Not unless it would seem it involves sledging Dan Andrews- in this case ineptly and ineffectively.
It’s certainly emotionally damaged The Australian. Can you imagine the Australian’s mockery of anyone who complained a Coalition politician damaged them emotionally?
Sorry for being unclear — that was specific to postals and pre-polls. First preferences for election day votes will be counted tomorrow night.
“… the Herald Sun and The Australian have backed the Coalition … stating that Premier Daniel Andrews has an autocratic style that has tested the bounds of democracy.”
On the very day of the release of the report into Morrison’s Multiple Ministries. Such chutzpah!
Oliver Sutton says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 8:20 am
George Megalogenis on AM, stretching a “parties like it’s 1999” comparison past breaking point.
——————————
If the ALP holds its regional seats its eastern suburb seats and it Frankston trainline seats then there’s comparisons to be made with 1988 and 1996.
Indeed, max. The Deputy Leader of Australia’s putative alternative party of government declares “I am not a public commentator!”
[checks job description]
Both Murdoch papers are endorsing Matthew Guy – hardly a gigantic shock, when was the last time any Murdoch publication told its readers to vote Labor in a federal or state election?
What opinion polls can be expected to be published today? Newspoll would be a given. Will there be a Essential/ the Guardian or Freshwater/ AFR poll?
I may even tune into Insiders on Sun morning to hear that blowhard Campbell talk about how Victorians got it so wrong.
What Murdoch is really saying is that ‘Dan’s social media team tuk all ur jobs !!!’
The Sun/Herald editorial is fully inline with the Liberals campaign.
I think “We hate Dan” is a better campaign then” Black Gangs”. Not a compelling message but it will upset less people.
I do love the post election reactions from the losing sides in Aus politics. There’s the initial “this is not happening”, that turns into “how could everyone else be so stupid!” followed by picking the one or two scapegoats to pin the blame on. Matthew looks set to be the ‘fall guy’ again.
40 of the 88 MPs got elected on a primary of over 50% last time. How many seats will have a primary of 50 this time? A lot less than 40 I suspect. Several of the seats are in areas that swung heavily against ALP this year, and a bunch of others have a retiring MP. Darren Chester was the only federal Victorian MP to achieve it this year.
Grimesays:
I know who reads the papers.
The Heralds-Sun is read by people who can’t read and The Australian is read by people who can’t think.
Justin says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 9:40 am
40 of the 88 MPs got elected on a primary of over 50% last time. How many seats will have a primary of 50 this time? A lot less than 40 I suspect. Several of the seats are in areas that swung heavily against ALP this year, and a bunch of others have a retiring MP. Darren Chester was the only federal Victorian MP to achieve it this year.
——————————
The last election was lopsided and that seems to be why people are getting spooked.
It should be noted that the Herald Sun’s editorial this time is a significant step up from 2018, when it stated that “on balance, we recommend a change of government”.
I have signed up to hand out in the seat of Eureka (Ballarat East). Apparently it is in play, if you believe the soothsayers circulating in the state. I don’t even think Nostradamus would make a prediction that it’s changing hands.
@ Justin
“Whats the prediction for how many TCP will feature a non-major?”
New non-traditional TCP seats
Footscray – ALP / GRN
Melton – ALP / IND
Point Cook – ALP / IND
Kew – LIB / IND
Brighton – LIB / IND
Southwest Coast – LIB / IND
Changing TCP seats
Pascoe Vale – ALP / GRN (previously ALP / IND)
Prahran – GRN / ALP (previously GRN / LIB)
Seats reverting back to traditional TCP
Werribee – ALP / LIB (previously ALP / IND)
Geelong – ALP / LIB (previously ALP / IND)
Morwell – ALP / LIB (previously IND / ALP)
Seats to remain as traditional TCP seats
Albert Park – Increases in the Greens primary vote will come at the expense of the ALP. Greens primary vote is too far behind Libs to reach the final two. Libs move to preference the Greens ahead of the ALP won’t matter.
Caulfield and Hawthorn – It is hard for an Independent to make the final two where both majors are seriously competing. Most non-traditional TCP contest happen where one of the major parties make a strategic decision not to compete.
“Both Murdoch papers are endorsing Matthew Guy – hardly a gigantic shock, when was the last time any Murdoch publication told its readers to vote Labor in a federal or state election?”
Kevin Rudd, 2007.
Before that? Buggered if I know. I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Terrorgraph editorialised for Bob Carr at some point.
“Caulfield and Hawthorn – It is hard for an Independent to make the final two where both majors are seriously competing. Most non-traditional TCP contest happen where one of the major parties make a strategic decision not to compete.”
It’s interesting, as someone in Hawthorn. I’ve never felt the Lowe campaign had a 10th of the zeitgeist that the Monique Ryan campaign had and I still believe that, and in theory with a sitting Labor MP Labor voters should be reluctant to tactical vote for a teal, but 4 weeks ago I think Labor was running hard here to try and retain the seat, more recently it has felt like they’ve conceded Hawthorn and withdrawn resources. Maybe between the Ryan campaign being fresh to mind, media pushing of the teal barrow and Labor appearing to run dead in the seat, Lowe will make the final 2 after all against Pesutto. However, if so I don’t think she’d have any chance to win. Most likely Hawthorn will go Liberal.
Caulfield I agree entirely, the indie is no chance, the battle between the majors there is too fierce for the indie to make final 2.
@Luke: Surely the “Matthew Guy. He’s the Liberals’ Fall Guy” ad parodies are already primed and ready to go as soon as they drop him…
I wouldn’t expect teals to have the kind of campaign that they did federally, not only because of the funding but now they are a known brand in the seats they are running in. It was completely new for the federal election, now someone can just go “oh she’s the Monique Ryan candidate”
@hornberger – I pretty much entirely agree with your non-traditional 2CP predictions there, every single one of them, and the reasons why.
Out of Hawthorn & Caulfield, I do think Hawthorn might have a chance of being LIB v IND because Labor don’t seem to be campaigning too hard and there seems to be a bit more momentum.
Living very close to Caulfield, my observation is that it appears to very much be a traditional Labor v Liberal contest.
@Justin – I also agree with your assessment of Brighton. Given Felicity Frederico’s history, I can’t see her benefiting from anywhere near as much of a swing off Labor & Greens voters (other than the ex-Liberal voters who may have swung to Labor in 2018) compared to Zoe Daniel.
I noted the observation about the pre-poll at the border of Brighton & Sandringham yesterday too, and that it didn’t seem too good for Newbury but lots of people were taking Labor HTVs. Being in the south of the seat, that’s not even where Labor’s vote generally comes from in that seat (they are strongest in the north). Newbury is really disliked and I think could definitely be a “surprise” Labor gain.
Trent says:
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 10:23 am
Newbury is really disliked and I think could definitely be a “surprise” Labor gain.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Hi Trent, I hope you are proven right (left).
I saw only the 2nd Labor for Brighton sign yesterday (1st in Dendy St removed weeks ago). One very plain letterbox pamphlet. Campaign very lacklustre if anything.
Frederico now has extensive signage coverage but still trails Newbury of course.
Still awaiting my postal vote papers in the mail so voted at a early voting centre in the Melbourne CBD.
Well organised but very long queues. Took all HTV from the volunteers outside for the State Library’s Riley Political Ephemera collection.
The VEC official was very surprised that I had not yet received my postal vote but did say once I had received the ballots from him I would be marked off (all staff had a laptop) automatically which obviously reduces the possibility of voter fraud.
There was a disagreement at a pre-poll centre when a prominent MP arrived and turned the environment political and toxic – and was invited to leave, which she did.
This is the same prominent MP who promotes the social media allegation that there was no fall on the steps – but the injuries were occasioned by the father of a 16 year old disabled girl who was sexually abused by the person who claims to have slipped and fallen on stairs physically assaulting the person who claims to have slipped and fallen on stairs.
This is where “politics” has got to – and an disgrace.
Who would want to go into politics when it is so toxic and damaging?
Then you have the likes of Murdoch promoting in support of such an outrageous allegation, an allegation doing the rounds on social media.
We live in a very sad and dangerous society.
We just trust that society does not become more sad and dangerous after Saturday.
The attacks of Sutton, as a mid ranking Public Servant, out of his depth, also originated from the same sources.
And these individuals ask us to vote for them!!!
john proccuto will be the opposition leader
Last note before leaving South-West Coast.
Carol Altmann (Independent) will not win. I’m not even totally convinced she will get into the 2CP last pairing.
I think the Liberals will retain it – after a big swing last time it looks like a ‘bridge too far’ for Labor to get that extra 2.3%.