Polls: Essential Research and JWS Research (open thread)

Essential Research finds Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings as strong as ever, but perceptions of the national direction have taken a knock.

Without bursting out of the confines of the error margins, the monthly prime ministerial ratings featured in the fortnightly Essential Research poll give Anthony Albanese his highest approval rating to date, up two points to 60%. His disapproval is up one to 27%, which leaves him one point shy of his previous best net approval rating. However, an occasion question on the national direction finds a five-point increase since September for “wrong” to 34% and a two-point drop for “right” to 46%.

Once a lengthy explanatory spiel was out of the way, 50% expressed support and 27% opposition to the government’s multi-employer bargaining laws, and has further results supporting industrial relations policies that strengthen the hand of low-paid workers. The poll also finds 43% of the view that it is inappropriate for politicians to use Twitter, compared with 16% favouring the option that it is a “vital channel” for politicians and 41% for a middle course. The full report is here – the poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1035.

JWS Research has also released its occasional True Issues survey on issue salience, distinct from the one a fortnight ago that focused specifically on the budget. Asked unprompted to name the three most important issues, 44% came up with a response the pollster categorised as “cost of living”, up from 38% in August and all the way from 11% a year ago. Housing and interest rates increased over the year from 10% to 19%, which environment and climate change was steady at 26% and hospitals, health and ageing fell eight points to 29%. The poll was conducted October 28 to 31 from a sample of 1000, and also features results on national direction and government performance in various policy fields.

Note that a dedicated thread for discussion of the Victorian election continues in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,788 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and JWS Research (open thread)”

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  5. Billy: “There is a reason the major parties are losing primary votes.”

    There’s a reason that the that primary vote of the greens is stuck below 15%. Maybe you should reflect on why 85% of Australians say never ever greens.

    Edit: Greentaur? Never heard of em.

  6. (from vic thread, but obviously national)

    I was reflecting on the ‘churn’ of Coalition PM’s, Premiers, and Chief Ministers in recent years. And here is a list of the last ones to have served at least five years in the top job, and the year they finished.

    Federal – John Howard – 2007
    NSW – Robert Askin – 1975
    Victoria – Jeff Kennett – 1999
    Queensland – Joh Bjelke-Petersen – 1987
    SA – Thomas Playford IV – 1965
    WA – Colin Barnett – 2017
    Tasmania – Will Hodgman – 2020
    NT – Marshall Perron – 1995
    ACT – Kate Carnell – 2000

    The closest any have got since these are Berejiklian (4 years 255 days), Marshall ( 4 years 2 days)

    Says something about factions and ‘brand’ I think.

  7. I was trying to be a more restrained less combative poster on the personal insult front before people realised who I was. I will of course continue on that front

    Good for you, Billy; welcome back.

  10. Pi @ #1655 Wednesday, November 23rd, 2022 – 2:51 pm

    Billy: “There is a reason the major parties are losing primary votes.”

    There’s a reason that the that primary vote of the greens is stuck below 15%. Maybe you should reflect on why 85% of Australians say never ever greens.

    These people never reflect on the fact that the Teals came out of nowhere to take seats The Greens would have had high hopes for. But The Greens didn’t win them. Don’t they ever ask themselves why that was?

  12. Pica @ #1653 Wednesday, November 23rd, 2022 – 2:46 pm

    Dandy Murray @ <a

    (Back to marking.)

    Can you please do mine for me…

    Written exams in Medicine are crap, since one cannot standardise answers. MCQs are only a little better. This is why I much prefer examining in Medicine with viva voce exams – preferably with real patients. After a while, it becomes recreational for both the candidates & examiners (“Nobody expects the FRACP Inquisition! Our chief weapon is Surprise! Surprise and Pedantry…and a fanatical devotion to Smiling Death. Talley & O’Conner!…”) – and the patients usually quite enjoy it (just like foxes don’tchaknow). I suspect it’s a form of Stockholm Syndrome for Ubernerds.

  15. “Can you please do mine for me…”

    Hell No!

    “Written exams in Medicine are crap, since one cannot standardise answers. MCQs are only a little better. This is why I much prefer examining in Medicine with viva voce exams ”

    As much as I agree with you in principle, 500 undergrads (~800 in semester 1) are not getting vivas in this particular course.

    The joys of a viva are reserved for those who fail the final exam hurdle, i.e. “please show me that you did not cheat on the assignments, and I’ll give you a pass.”

  17. A_E
    If still about
    re the Canberra Class discussion from a few days ago. Any truth that inter- service rivalry played a part in the final decision. If they were fixed wing capable the RAAF would have to give up 15- 20 of their F35a s for F35b s, and if they did who would fly them. Anyone can do helicopters even army but for jets it should be RAAF.

  21. well the ishue with shooters leader robbert borsack in nsw is interesting there seems to be a devide between there lower house mps and borsack and bernasiec in lower house even before dalton left in 2019 for example borsack was one of the loudist aponents of legalizing abortion when his lower house mps all three suporter iva butler or dunarto would be good leqaders especialy dunarto winning orange of the nationals we dont need borsacks mate bernasiac replacing himm if sff were serous they would take borsack of the number one spot on there ticket as his 8 year term is up for re election in march next year

  22. ”
    mimhoffsays:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 11:19 am
    Billy Kaplan

    The Teals represent rich inner-city electorates… Joe Manchin represents… West Virginia.

    They are nothing alike – in Australia Joe would be right-wing Labor backed by coal miners, much like he is in the USA.
    ”

    Joe Manchin is Greame Campbell of Australia ( ex-ALP MP (represented Kalgoorlie federal Electorate during Hawke -Keating years)

    Upnorth can provide more information on Campbell.

  24. for example in dec 2018 there well liked mp robbert brown was dumped after parliament rose meaning he could not even give a validictory borsack claimed he supported brown but the members thought he was to old borsacks coments egged on buy latham on dallton did not help him how ever the sff can not give him there winable spot in march when his term ends that will show there serous

  25. rhwombat at 3:07 pm
    😆 description of the process. Yes indeed re the answers, the ‘biological’ world tends to be ‘analogue’ rather than ‘digital’ .

  26. so sory did not read article so all his fellow mps are sick of him butler banasiak and dunarto are the other sff mps maybi the sff membership will have to dump borsack and they could sack him as leader

  29. ”
    Billy Kaplansays:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 2:30 pm
    Yes it’s guytaur. I was trying to be a more restrained less combative poster on the personal insult front before people realised who I was. I will of course continue on that front

    Off to take another break now.

    Thanks Dandy
    ”

    Billy
    Please don’t take a break. We need you. Forgive C@tmomma and come back. Other than C@tmomma nobody was combative with you. So come back. 🙂

  31. BW

    Comments like that from you finally convinced me to put some money into joining the Greens party.

    With your whining over Pocock I bet you wish the Green candidate not Pocock was the ACT member.

    I remember all your anti tram rants.

    Turns out the ACT government has been pretty good at being where most Australians are.

  32. Bring Back Craig.
    Wow – what a doozy, is the new member for Hughes, Jenny Wares.
    Given the opportunity to ask the same question – 3 times – by Speaker Milton Dick, she managed to ask the same, pre-prepared question in the identical manner, despite a little assistance from the Speaker.
    Then, she was directed, by a point of order, to resume her seat, which wasn’t the one from which she asked her question(s) initially.
    Once escorted by a Parliamentary Attendant to her correct, allocated seat, she was a given a further opportunity to ask her question – and still managed to stuff it up and being directed to resume her seat as she was out of order.
    Tony Burke, as Government Leader of the House, had the best response to this Opposition debacle.
    “The member for Hughes has asked me more questions today, than the Leader of the Opposition!”

  33. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 11:40 am
    Alpha Zero @ #1533 Wednesday, November 23rd, 2022 – 10:59 am

    Tomorrows Herald Sun Headline:
    Cookers BBQ Shanks.
    Comment of the Day!
    中华人民共和国
    Yes I am calling it early. Alpha Zero gets another one. BK his usual. With Taylormades left ball on the table as the prize anything can happen until the winner is announced.

    Captain Morgan hasn’t been kind to me this morning. So C@t I’m placing you in charge for the day whilst I fight the cursed Captain and his malignant effects on my good self.

  34. From the Guardian

    Robodebt inquiry to begin investigating former Coalition ministers’ roles in creating program

    The robodebt royal commission scheme is set to investigate how former Coalition government ministers and top public servants established the program through the federal budget process.

    It is one of several topics to be explored in a two-week block of hearings commencing on 5 December, according to a media statement released by the commission on Wednesday.

    The royal commission said the focus of those hearings would include the impacts of the scheme on individuals and the experience of representative bodies and the government’s response to identified shortcomings in the scheme.

    Other issues to be investigated include the role played by the budget process in establishing the scheme, including the involvement of portfolio ministers and top public service executives in this process. Former ministers with responsibility over the period include but are not limited to Scott Morrison, Christian Porter, Marise Payne, Alan Tudge, and Stuart Robert.

  35. BW

    Also just so you know. I am going to be voting yes to the Voice as some Green members have publicly stated on the record they are doing too.

    _____________________________

    Ven

    Thanks 🙂

  36. Rocket Rocket @ #1669 Wednesday, November 23rd, 2022 – 3:36 pm

    rhwombat

    Did you do any of the clinical exams via ‘computer’ or ‘phone’ in the last few Covid years?

    You lose a lot of face-to-face interaction even when you do have video connection.

    Both. Just like direct clinical practice, now and forevermore. Since it’s biology and individual variation does not follow standard distributions, you use whatever bandwidth you can get. Efficacy is more important than efficiency. Economics it ain’t.

  37. The Greens can’t get past 15% because they are a niche product. If they want to increase that they’ll have to talk about money and appeal to self-interest, but then they’d lose adherents to maybe a “real green” party on their left.

  39. Alpha Zero:

    ‘I flipped on to Dee Dee Mencha this afternoon, they were arguing about the statement from Dan Andrews that they had filled in something like 75,000 pot holes recently across the state … They also asked “Why did they count them?”’

    Now they know how many holes it takes to fill the Albert Hall …

  40. Ports lockout ‘engineered’ to rob unions of bargaining rights: FWC
    David Marin-Guzman

    Tug boat giant Svitzer engineered an extreme “economy-damaging” lockout of port workers so it could end its bargaining with unions, the Fair Work Commission has said.

    Explaining why it refused to terminate the three-year maritime dispute last week, opting instead for a six-month suspension, an FWC full bench said Svitzer’s lockout was not a “legitimate” way to deprive unions of their rights to collectively bargain.

    Svitzer had planned to lock out almost 600 critical port workers from last Friday in response to unions intensifying industrial action over the past month.

    The lockout would have stopped container ships coming in or out of 17 ports around the country

    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/ports-lockout-engineered-to-rob-unions-of-bargaining-rights-fwc-20221123-p5c0ml

  41. [‘Washington: The US Supreme Court has cleared the way for the imminent handover of former president Donald Trump’s tax returns to a congressional committee after a three-year legal fight.

    The court, with no noted dissents, rejected Trump’s plea for an order that would have prevented the Treasury Department from giving six years of tax returns for Trump and some of his businesses to the Democratic-controlled House Ways and Means committee.

    Donald Trump has been fighting to keep his tax returns private.

    Alone among recent presidents, Trump refused to release his tax returns either during his successful 2016 campaign or his four years in the White House, citing what he said was an ongoing audit by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Last week, he announced he would run again in 2024.

    It is Trump’s second loss at the Supreme Court in as many months, and third this year. In October, the court refused to step into the legal fight surrounding the FBI search of his Florida estate that turned up classified documents.

    In January, the court refused to stop the National Archives from turning over documents to the House committee investigating the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol. Justice Clarence Thomas was the only vote in Trump’s favour.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/court-clears-handover-of-trump-tax-returns-to-congress-20221123-p5c0ot.html

  42. @OC:

    “ A_E
    If still about
    re the Canberra Class discussion from a few days ago. Any truth that inter- service rivalry played a part in the final decision. If they were fixed wing capable the RAAF would have to give up 15- 20 of their F35a s for F35b s, and if they did who would fly them. Anyone can do helicopters even army but for jets it should be RAAF.”

    ______

    Massive inter service and some intra service rivalries were at play. Ultimately, however it came down to money: ie. within a 2% of GNP budget cap everybody in fort fumble feared that their particular pet project would be cut or compromised.

    Army boffins feared that the navy’s LHDs would be diverted away from the new amphibious warfare capability that the army had just spent 10 years (of an expected 20 year roll out) developing. Despite the massive increase in sortie tempo that even a small fixed wing squadron could provide in stand off close air support to a disembarked combat brigade if operating from a LHD in the littoral waters adjacent to the landing beach (when compared to the sortie rate from fixed wing conventional jets based at a FOB, perhaps hundreds of miles away – witness the strenuous and low sortie rates generated by the RAAF fighters based in Dubai combating ISIS in Iraq and Syria between 2015-19).

    Navy boffins were worried that they would be further shut out from operational command if the LHDs were divided between amphibious warfare (with army being responsible for overall control and command) and Air Defence operations (which the RAAF would have the whip hand IF the government te didn’t agree to the RAN reestablishing the fixed air wing of the Fleet Air Arm).

    The RAAF feared that they would lose 30 odd F35As to the navy, without any ‘compensation’ (and hence end up with only 3 operational strike fighter squadrons in total.

    However, the dog barks and the caravan moves on. IMO, those fears have largely abated and can be further mitigated in the current strategic environment.

  44. poroti @ #1688 Wednesday, November 23rd, 2022 – 4:27 pm

    Economics it ain’t.

    We’d all be farked if it was.

    Nah. Most of what we now call “Medicine” hasn’t been around that long. We got along with the same end-point and not much more extended suffering. The difference in the last ~60 years has been in many more of us surviving long enough to get new and interesting pathologies in later life. The embodied mind wears out. Most superficial medicine is rationed on non-economic bases. As Pasteur is reputed to have said “One does not ask of one who suffers: What is your country and what is your religion? One merely says: You suffer, that is enough for me…”

  45. The Global Times has gone 100% feral on Australia’s membership of AUKUS. A bit like Bandt and the Voice Busters have gone feral on First Nations.

  48. Ven,
    I’m only combative with commenters that come out with verifiably questionable, if not false, statements as if they are gospel. This place isn’t a Child Care Centre, it’s a place for robust debate about politics. Guytaur’s Bernie Bros-inflected suppositions and statements were proven wrong last time he was around and will always be challenged again if they need to be.
    What is wrong with that I don’t know.
    On the other hand, if guytaur says something I agree with I will be the first to say that I agree with him. You can’t be fairer than that.

  50. Cat

    For starters I supported Warren. Then switched to Sanders then switched to getting Biden to do better.

    None of this Bernie Bros crap applies to me. I stuck to the woke part of the woke President Biden.

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