Polls: Essential Research and JWS Research (open thread)

Essential Research finds Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings as strong as ever, but perceptions of the national direction have taken a knock.

Without bursting out of the confines of the error margins, the monthly prime ministerial ratings featured in the fortnightly Essential Research poll give Anthony Albanese his highest approval rating to date, up two points to 60%. His disapproval is up one to 27%, which leaves him one point shy of his previous best net approval rating. However, an occasion question on the national direction finds a five-point increase since September for “wrong” to 34% and a two-point drop for “right” to 46%.

Once a lengthy explanatory spiel was out of the way, 50% expressed support and 27% opposition to the government’s multi-employer bargaining laws, and has further results supporting industrial relations policies that strengthen the hand of low-paid workers. The poll also finds 43% of the view that it is inappropriate for politicians to use Twitter, compared with 16% favouring the option that it is a “vital channel” for politicians and 41% for a middle course. The full report is here – the poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1035.

JWS Research has also released its occasional True Issues survey on issue salience, distinct from the one a fortnight ago that focused specifically on the budget. Asked unprompted to name the three most important issues, 44% came up with a response the pollster categorised as “cost of living”, up from 38% in August and all the way from 11% a year ago. Housing and interest rates increased over the year from 10% to 19%, which environment and climate change was steady at 26% and hospitals, health and ageing fell eight points to 29%. The poll was conducted October 28 to 31 from a sample of 1000, and also features results on national direction and government performance in various policy fields.

Note that a dedicated thread for discussion of the Victorian election continues in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,788 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and JWS Research (open thread)”

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  4. Griff

    Yes pointing out real data results contradicting the centrist narrative despite their spinning is real entertaining.

    No matter what they say the reality is Universal Medicare is in the centre of politics except in the US.

    This being my point. This shows the Democrats failing to win the centre with a good policy begging to win votes for them.

    The whole centrist thing of no we cannot have Universal Medicare because its a unicorn in America just points to the failure of the centrist approach.

  7. Cat

    Yes you have proved this comprehensively.

    No looking at yeah the election results show the US is actually more left than political operatives and pundits said it was.

    Otherwise that red wave would have appeared. It is that simple of a comment I made

  10. Billy Kaplan @ #1599 Wednesday, November 23rd, 2022 – 12:29 pm

    Cat

    Another reminder for you. The Progressive Caucus members did not run on defund the police. Thats just a law and order scare campaign from the right.

    So we can see who is seeing unicorns

    Stop replying to me. You have proven you only have eyes for those who agree with you. You refuse to accede to any other perspective but your own narrow one. I’m not interested in that.

    Thank goodness I’m going to dinner tonight with thoughtful individuals from across the spectrum of the Left. Not monomaniacs like you.

  13. Granny Anny @ #1595 Wednesday, November 23rd, 2022 – 12:18 pm

    Taylormade, as a dedicated and influential liberal, I think you should back the Mormons.

    The Pentecostals took over the WA Branch and look what happened there.

    Another Mormon recommendation is that there is a synergy between them and the Liberals. Mormons wrote their own bible. The Liberals wrote bullshit also, African gangs, dictator Dan, IBAC referrals, bicycles running into cars, and stairs attacking Premiers for starters.

    I think I read Taylormade a few days ago essentially saying he was joining Boerwar’s Informal Party.

    Only the full-on cookers are standing by Matt Guy’s gaggle of ratbags.

  15. It has to be said, if Matt Guy gets enough support to become Premier, then we’ve got a LOT of disturbed people in the community and the country is in BIG trouble.

  16. I started following the 76ers because of Simmons.

    Normally my loyalty is available to the highest bidder but I have stuck with them. As well, Mrs Shellbell would like Aussies Matisse Thybulle to marry one of our daughters, although he could be an anti-vaxxer.

    Tough life choices.

  18. Just WOW. I had no idea just how many cookers were standing in the Victorian elections. If you have 30 minutes to spare jump over to the Pub and have a look at an entertaining youtube clip loaded by Leonetwo at 1139 this morning.

    There are cookers in The Cave, but I don’t think proportionally we have that many. Thank Dog for the Nullabor.

  19. Don’t need a committee to tell us to stop being an enabler of catastrophic climate change with our massive fossil fuel exports.

    Lambie calls for committee to assess preparedness for climate disasters
    Senator Jacqui Lambie says she been moved by the BoM and CSIRO report into Australia’s climate. She wants a committee set up to see how prepared Australia is to deal with the coming natural disasters:

    I’m not surprised the report says weather events are getting worse because of climate change. Everyone in Australia knows that we’re having more and more floods. Bushfire season is stretching out longer every year.

    This is why I’m setting up a Senate committee into Australia’s Disaster Resilience. We need to get a plan in place now to deal with these events. We can’t keep calling in the army to help. That’s not what they’re there for and it’s stretching their capacity to protect our national security.

    A committee will hear from people across the country. It’ll ask them about the best way to look after our communities before and after weather events hit.

    I’m optimistic we can get this committee up by end of the sitting fortnight. Time to get our skates on and get this moving.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/nov/23/australian-politics-news-live-updates-parliament-industrial-relations-workplace-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-interest-rates-cost-of-living-integrity-nacc

  22. [‘Why has the Victoria state election campaign turned so ugly?’]

    [“The Liberal party are preferencing people who are not just antisemites but they are Nazis, they are racists,” Andrews said last week, without naming candidates. The Liberals strongly rejected Andrews’ claims, with their deputy leader, David Southwick, saying the use of the term was “completely inappropriate and desperate” and the “last thing anyone wants is a Nazi in the parliament”.]

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/23/victoria-state-election-2022-why-has-the-campaign-turned-so-ugly

    The Americanisation of the Australian polity?

  23. Wranslide

    I agree with you on the punditry and a lot of the political operatives especially on the right.

    I disagree with you about the voters on the basis of those election results. The high polarisation is less than I feared.

    The political and media class have gone right back to that division. I don’t think the voters have.

  24. Shellbell says:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 1:18 pm
    I started following the 76ers because of Simmons.

    Normally my loyalty is available to the highest bidder but I have stuck with them. As well, Mrs Shellbell would like Aussies Matisse Thybulle to marry one of our daughters, although he could be an anti-vaxxer.

    Tough life choices.
    ———————————————————————————————

    I’m hoping he exhibits his full basketball potential, he’s fantastic. And with Thybulle and Giddey and others, Australia will be a force to reckon with.

  26. Billy Kaplan @ #1612 Wednesday, November 23rd, 2022 – 1:08 pm

    Cat

    I disagree with you. I did not go about insulting your mental state of health.

    Don’t resort to the Victim card, Billy Kaplan. My reflection upon your perspective in no way related to the state of your mental health. You’re just employing another easily-resorted to trope leaned on by the persistently-blinkered.

  29. Cat

    Nah you used monomaniac.

    You could have just taken a break instead of replying just because we disagree.

    And yes thats a two way street however the closest I came to an insult was you bought the American spin.

    A lot of very sane people have done that. Millions in the US. Edit: And to be clear I am talking about Democrats

  30. Why has the Victoria state election campaign turned so ugly?

    The Coals have no chance in a sober orderly campaign , a shit fight in the mud and hoping to land a lucky haymaker in the melee is about their only option. Their patrons in the Rupertariat are only too happy to shovel the merde, it’s a specialty of theirs

  32. A brief good afternoon all. Two comments from lunch time reading.

    First this article in Politico is interesting in that it covers something Australian media rarely report on these days – international politics that does not directly involve us.

    France and Germany are getting increasingly concerned about rhetoric and some actions from the Biden government that is seen as protectionist. The actions (subsidies for “green” manufacturing initiatives like EVs) is sold as “green” but is really protectionist. So France and Germany are correct, and Germany especially has a large share of the US car market.

    Of course, there is also hypocrisy at play because the EU itself has been highly protectionist (ask Aussie winemakers). The German car industry is also in deep trouble of its own making, having been far too slow to switch from diesels to EVs.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-biden-green-subsidy-inflation-reduction-act-robert-habeck-bruno-le-maire/

  33. https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/fire-at-friendlyjordies-house-causes-significant-damage-in-suspected-arson-incident-20221123-p5c0kj.html

    Where is the media outrage over this terrorist act?
    It is a terrorist act if it is political motivated violence and burning down someone’s house because of their social media output is certainly one.
    I have never been a huge fan of Friendly Jordies but this is a progression into dangerous territory.

  36. poroti

    Is there a media blackout rule to come into play in Victoria and end our suffering at the hands of Newscorp and its stable of fiction authors?

  37. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 1:37 pm
    Why has the Victoria state election campaign turned so ugly?
    Murdoch gaslighting.

    Murdoch just reacting to existential threat to both the (Vic) Liberal Party & News .. both are inexorably linked.

  42. Second point (sorry AUKUS again)

    There is another article from Marcus Hellyer of ASPIT today about AUKUS and its challenges. It makes some valid points.

    There is one theme though, which is repeated from previous ASPI articles, that again seeks to minimise the chance of any Australian SSN construction – suggesting Australia should focus on (US) SSN maintenance:

    “There are potential paths that will deliver jobs and industrial capability and support our AUKUS partners that don’t involve assembling entire submarines in Australia. We should identify the most productive division of labour rather than inefficiently duplicating production lines. For example, the US Navy is facing significant maintenance backlogs for its submarine force. Consequently, an Australian focus on the sustainment of both Australia’s and our partners’ submarines may in fact be of greater benefit to both our own and our partners’ submarine capability and will create enduring industrial demand signals.”

    It is true that the USN faces a huge SSN maintenance backlog. We should help but would be fools to offer to fix it all. We need to (re)build our own sub construction capability, and use it to replace our own sub force. This sort of thinking would signal the end of Australia’s own submarine force.

    Any benefits from AUKUS in terms of technology transfer would be greatly reduced, if we only did maintenance and never did any design or construction. And yes, Adelaide’s manufacturing industry would have been shafted (again).

    ASPI seems to pay almost zero attention to questions like cost, local jobs, and national sovereignty.
    https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ausmin-2022-defence-capability/

  45. It isn’t just Murdoch media here in Melbourne, flip onto Nine medias flagship talkback radio station for a laugh. I flipped on to Dee Dee Mencha this afternoon, they were arguing about the statement from Dan Andrews that they had filled in something like 75,000 pot holes recently across the state due to flooding, but this isn’t good enough as they don’t know the size of the holes that have been filled and they were concerned about the quality of the filling used in the holes in question (as if a VicRoads worker would use higher quality bitumen if the Libs were in power).

    They also asked “Why did they count them?” – gawd, you count them, so you know how material you use, how much the repair costs and so that the road workers are accountable for the job that they are doing…

    You seriously have to turn your brain to the off position to listen to this dribble…

  46. Yes it’s guytaur. I was trying to be a more restrained less combative poster on the personal insult front before people realised who I was. I will of course continue on that front

    Off to take another break now.

    Thanks Dandy

  50. Socrates at 2:05 pm
    I’m not sure what the story is in Victoria. If there is one The Hun will alert us a day before by turning their antiDan dial up to 11 .

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