Australia Institute gas industry poll (open thread)

A finding of strong support for gas export gaps and windfall profits taxes offers the only relief amid a post-budget polling trough.

The only recent poll I’m aware of is an Australia Institute survey on gas industry policy, which finds overwhelming support for export caps (52% strongly in favour, 28% somewhat so, 5% opposed and 2% strongly opposed) and a windfall profits tax (39%, 31%, 7% and 5%). However, the setting of the questions, which noted that the proposals had been made by former ACCC chair Rod Sims, might be thought encouraging to favourable responses. The poll was conducted November 1 to 4 from a sample of 1001, using an online panel licensed from Dynata. Such a poll wouldn’t normally be enough for me to hang a post on, but a new open thread is needed and I’ve been too consumed by the Victorian election to look into anything else. So there you have it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,412 comments on “Australia Institute gas industry poll (open thread)”

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  1. @cronus from a few days ago – been too busy to post until now

    You’re welcome RE the suggestion for a 15amp circuit

    It amazes me how many posts on a Tesla FB group I’m in from people who just ordered a car and are fretting about getting a charger installed. Unless you’re a salesperson or someone who regularly drives really long distances it just isn’t needed, as no doubt you’ve realised

    If I was able to work from home more often a smart charger like a zappi might make sense to soak up all excess solar into the car, especially with FiTs now so low, but at least with a tesla it’s easy enough to dial back the charging rate on days I am WFH and can charge off my solar, so the benefits aren’t there for me at this stage

    I have however ordered a Tesla Powerwall, both for bill savings given the projected energy price increases, but moreso for blackout protection as the supply in my little coastal village isn’t great, especially when there are storms

  3. Dandy Murray says:
    Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 5:31 pm
    “Makes you feel ‘all warm inside!’”

    Ah, that’be reflux
    Today’s winner!

  4. @socrates:

    “ Hello and yes I did see it briefly. I don’t know much about the pallet system but that does not mean I disagree with it. I agree with the rest your list. The general principle (A2AD) you outline I also agree .

    The extra AWDs and fitting Tomahawks to them and Collins is obvious.

    I also agree we need corvettes, and the A100 looks good. I would prefer we went to a conventional tender system with that purchase as their are several good candidates. Defence has gotten in trouble too often not going through proper tender processes.‘

    _____

    re: rapid dragon: there are plenty of You Tube videos reviewing this system, but below are the two most recent (and I haven’t yet watched them, but here they are: FYI).

    The bottom line is that the USAF will be able to turn their C-17 Globemaster fleet into long range strategic bombers without any modification of the planes. With effectively twice to three times the payload of LRSAMs can be delivered when compared to any of America’s actual strategic bombers (B52s – can only take 20 (12 under the wings, and 8 in the bomb bay), and the B-1 lancers and the B1 can both carry 24 internally).

    This system is very rapidly going through all of this development phases and is actually very likely to be fully operational by the end of next year. Therefore the RAAF could have the equivalent of 24 B-52s (when measured by total weapons load out) within a couple of years by simply pulling its finger out and making an incredibly modest investment in this palletised system.

    Consider this: a flight of eight C-17s (which the RAAF actually has now), each fully laden with 6 x 9 missile pallets could fly from Tindal to say 350-500 nm south of Hainan Island (with say two air to air refuels along the way – one just off the NT coast and the next at the other-side of the air sea gap on the far side of the Arafura Sea), drop a combined missile swarm of over 400 LRSAMs and completely destroy fully half of the PLA-N’s fleet and port facilities and be home for tea and medals the same evening.

    Until the B-21 comes into service, this system should give countries that operate it a decisive strategic advantage over strategic rivals and potential enemies.

    https://youtu.be/a0jL1d7MscM

    The latest test off the coast of Norway (one live missile, 3 inert dummies – NATO proof of concept testing in a C-130J using a 4 missile pallet just last week), FYI, late last year the USAF live tested one 9 pallet missile drop in a C-17 and an inert 3 x 9 missile drop (but its will eventually be able to have two 3 x 9 missile pallet trains roll out the back for a total of 54 missiles per plane):

    https://youtu.be/d-ep1tbiEGs

    Ps. We have been promised tomahawks for years: I’m starting to think that there is such a backlog in orders that we may not get them anytime soon. Hence my suggestion that we pivot to the French Naval Strike Missile (which is a derivative of the joint BAE-French storm shadow missile & uses the multi sensor guidance system that BAE developed that both the LRSAM and Tomahawks are supposed to be upgraded to). Anyway, we need heavy naval stroke missiles. Lots of them. ASAP!!!, and we shouldn’t be picky. If that means shopping with the Americans, brits and/or Europeans then so be it.

  6. Further response to Socrates:

    “ I also agree we need corvettes, and the A100 looks good. I would prefer we went to a conventional tender system with that purchase as their are several good candidates. Defence has gotten in trouble too often not going through proper tender processes.”

    _____

    Normally I’d agree, except time is of the essence. Hence going with three more Hobart Class AWDs because they are a mature platform which the RAN is now familiar with – building, maintaining and operating.

    Similarly the MEKO A-100 (and I’d prefer the light frigate variant over the corvette) is very similar in many ways to the MEKO A-200 Frigate … which is the ANZAC class, except with heaps more automation and hence a requirement for only half the crew to comprise the ship’s company. These ships should be able to take our phased array radar. System, SAAB combat system, an 8 missile NSM canister, 2 x 2 light torpedo tube system, a towed sonar array, 1 medium helicopter (and garage), 1 rolling frame short range air defence missile /Phalanx canon CIWS and some sort of main gun (maybe the 40mm Bofors that the Arafura class was supposed to get, but I reckon a navalised variant of Rheinmetall’s Lance turret with a 45 mm auto canon is the way to go). The light frigate variant may even be big enough for one or even two Mk41 eight cell tactical length VLS for even more missiles (perhaps even some heavy strike missiles – LRSAMs if not fully blown tomahawks). …

  7. “ More Republican mega-donors, including Blackstone founder Stephen Schwarzman, have refused to back Donald Trump’s bid to reclaim the US presidency, saying it’s time for the party to move on. Other high-profile donors have also abandoned the former president since the midterms, Citadel hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin calling Mr Trump a “three-time loser” and declaring Mr DeSantis the fresh blood the party needed.
    Ronald Lauder, the billionaire New York cosmetics heir and longtime Republican donor, also said he would not back Trump. Mr Peterffy, who contributed $US250,000 to Mr Trump’s 2020 campaign, told Bloomberg a “fresh face” was needed.”

    https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/big-donors-dump-trump-after-comeback-bid-20221117-p5byzo

  8. PageBoi says:
    Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 5:32 pm
    @cronus from a few days ago – been too busy to post until now

    You’re welcome RE the suggestion for a 15amp circuit

    “It amazes me how many posts on a Tesla FB group I’m in from people who just ordered a car and are fretting about getting a charger installed. Unless you’re a salesperson or someone who regularly drives really long distances it just isn’t needed, as no doubt you’ve realised”
    ———————————————————————————————

    Again, many many thanks, PB really comes into its own in such situations. Your advice was spot on and entirely practical. In our circumstances, a weekly round trip to the GC of not more than 300km, the 15 amp socket is perfect. We don’t actually ever expect to need a supercharger (might try one for fun) but it has also been a good opportunity for us to sit down and assess our actual travelling needs rather than just the thumb-in-bum assumption of requiring more than is necessary.

  11. Dandy Murray says:
    Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 5:31 pm
    “Makes you feel ‘all warm inside!’”

    Ah, that’be reflux
    中华人民共和国
    I shouldn’t have had the grilled field rat yesterday. Feel a bit crook now

  13. HH

    Where did you hear that? Great news if yes but so far I thought Macron had offered diesel subs to be built quickly in France to overcome any gap.

    I must be off. Shiraz to drink.

  14. My Solar was shut down today by SA Power networks….Made a few calls and was informed that SA is still cut off from the National Grid and that all solar and wind generation was halted as we were producing too much and had no way of exporting it east

  15. yes but who in the house is leadership material adam shiff orrasgin mckonal is 80 and leader of republicans i think pelosie should retire as she has been house leader since 2003 but a lot of us leaders are very old

  16. good news with nsw election finaly after 40 years the biget fred nile is finaly retiring on the myth making about searle he is not a huge los was probaly behind the undermining of walt secord one of labors moore effective mlcs noticed secord thanked most of his coleagues but searle was absent from that list there is a lot of baristers in parliament dreyfuss speakman soon unfortunatly searle was a very boreing speaker inteligents but with his boreing delivvery he couldnot have been a senyor minister any way if any thing secord dsesbite being overly abrumpt was mor effective in a attack dog mold searle seem to think he was smarter theen any one else labors great hope desbite being best mates with daley

  17. plus he quoates friendley jordies who has been premoting searle off late labor will have legal skills with larwence minns has been very fair tothe mckay suporters

  18. to use rex analigyminns should manage out lynch primrose and donnelly yes primrose has until 2027 but give his lack of contrabution to politics i assume his can continue to waste time in upper house because searle thanked him in his speech he seems to be following the former aterney generalwho he worked foor who his soft left faction prefered a back bencher called jan burnswood over him leaving him in an unwinable possition he retired a year later justbtw reordin etu is good friends with robertson

  20. dave says:
    Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 5:33 pm
    David Crowe takes apart dutton’s lies on China –

    Australia’s China syndrome: one big lie distorts our expectations

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-s-china-syndrome-one-big-lie-distorts-our-expectations-20221116-p5bypb.html
    ———————————————————————————————

    Not really anything new in Crowe’s article which makes me wonder therefore why he didn’t highlight the major underlying lie (not to mention the many other lies on this issue) twelve months and more ago. It was obvious to Bludgers so why not to an experienced journalist? This unwillingness to deal with these issues as they emerged under the Coalition is deeply troubling and has impacted the public’s trust in our media.

  22. Cronus

    Stating the bleeding obvious I know but up until six months ago, criticising the LNP lies and misrepresentations was simply not done in the Fairfax and Murdoch and Stokes press.

    This week we have had Hartcher and Massola telling is how the Liberals knew a year ago Morrison was leading them to disaster but nobody had the guts to move to turf him.

    I find the idea that Massola, who has long been a cheerleader for the Liberals and seemed to have the inside running on most of their activities, did not know the level of disquiet.

    They say that war history is written by the winners. In Australian politics the people backing the losers seem to be writing that that they knew all along Morrison was a fraud but couldn’t say anything at the time.

    Pathetic.

  23. Rossmcg,
    The only thing I’ll say in defense of Massola is that, up until about a year ago he was the Asia correspondent for Fairfax. After he returned from that assignment and began reporting on local politics again, his coverage of Morrison was more sceptical and I do think he broke a couple of big negative stories about the Morrison government. He could have done more, obviously, but journos too often ‘balance’ their coverage with thoughts that the government may well win the election that is upcoming as well and pull their punches.

  25. Gad. You are full of merde Aaron. Secord’s one claim was disloyalty. “Senior Labor source’ (dumping a bucket it of shit on Jodie McKay) was always Walt. Useful … for Alex Smith … and no one else. Lazy with it as well.

    If you think Searle is a boring speaker (and as if one needs to be Cicero to be an effective minister anyways, lols), then what to make of Minns?: a bloke who looks like a newsreader, and has the same sharp uselessness about him, but speaks like a jockey.

  26. c@t

    I’ll bow to your memory of Massola. I don’t necessarily share it.

    The reports this week revealed that the Fin Review’s Cooorey, an unashamed LNP cheerleader, was threatened by a PM staffer he’d be cut off if he wrote that Morrison had gone to Hawaii.

    I would liked to have read that at the time. The threat I mean.

    I’ve known a few journalists over the journey, sadly too many give the nod and wink and say ‘if only I could write what I really know”

  28. Rossmcg @ #1376 Thursday, November 17th, 2022 – 8:06 pm

    c@t

    I’ll bow to your memory of Massola. I don’t necessarily share it.

    The reports this week revealed that the Fin Review’s Cooorey, an unashamed LNP cheerleader, was threatened by a PM staffer he’d be cut off if he wrote that Morrison had gone to Hawaii.

    I would liked to have read that at the time. The threat I mean.

    I’ve known a few journalists over the journey, sadly too many give the nod and wink and say ‘if only I could write what I really know”

    Very much so. It’s all relative at the end of the day though, isn’t it? In an ideal world the CPG would be honest brokers. Never going to happen I think. For example, who’s ever going to tell the Christopher Pyne/James Ashby story? There’s a million more stories like that. We’ll never know them.

    However, one thing I am looking forward to is the release of Niki Savva’s book. It has to be coming soon and I’m sure it’ll be a doozy! 😀

  30. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 7:53 pm
    Rossmcg,
    The only thing I’ll say in defense of Massola is that, up until about a year ago he was the Asia correspondent for Fairfax. After he returned from that assignment and began reporting on local politics again, his coverage of Morrison was more sceptical and I do think he broke a couple of big negative stories about the Morrison government. He could have done more, obviously, but journos too often ‘balance’ their coverage with thoughts that the government may well win the election that is upcoming as well and pull their punches.
    —————————————–

    Massola fluff piece propaganda , “If Jenny Morrison could meet 50.1 per cent of voters, Scott Morrison would be prime minister for life” ,
    Out did Phil Coorey’s fluff piece propaganda Gladys the woman who saved Australia

  32. Although not overly familiar with Vic politics, Guy appears to be gormless; adding to his woes is the referral to the IBAC by the VEC – this on the cusp of the election. No matter what the HS and SNAD throw at Andrews, he’s ostensibly embued with the non-stick qualities of Wran, N. I think the only way Matty can make political headway is to invite Dutton down south to campaign with him.

  34. China reported 23,276 new COVID-19 infections on Nov. 16, of which 2,388 were symptomatic and 20,888 were asymptomatic, the National Health Commission said on Thursday.

    That compared with 20,199 new cases a day earlier – 1,623 symptomatic and 18,576 asymptomatic infections, which China counts separately.

    Excluding imported infections, China reported 23,132 new local cases, of which 2,328 were symptomatic and 20,804 were asymptomatic, up from 20,059 a day earlier.

  36. Macarthur

    “For most eastern Europeans, the war in Ukraine is seen not as a single event but a process of creeping and always escalating Russian aggression. This view reflects a particular fatalism and distrust of our western allies. And while the reaction of the Polish government has been profoundly measured, social media reactions show that many citizens are convinced that the situation has just turned their fears into facts. Anxieties that lives could be lost because of the war, including those living on Polish territory, have now proved tragically justified.”
    ————-
    The Eastern European distrust of their “western allies” is totally understandable.

    Britain, and its Empire, went to war in 1939 because of the German and Russian invasion and occupation of Poland and, in the case of Russia , the Baltic States.

    Yet at the end of the war, the western nations handed Poland and other Eastern European countries over to continued Russian subjugation.

    The westerners had lost their enthusiasm for the original casus belli.

    The possibility of a repeat cannot be discounted.

  37. Holdenhillbilly @ #1384 Thursday, November 17th, 2022 – 9:32 pm

    China reported 23,276 new COVID-19 infections on Nov. 16, of which 2,388 were symptomatic and 20,888 were asymptomatic, the National Health Commission said on Thursday.

    That compared with 20,199 new cases a day earlier – 1,623 symptomatic and 18,576 asymptomatic infections, which China counts separately.

    Excluding imported infections, China reported 23,132 new local cases, of which 2,328 were symptomatic and 20,804 were asymptomatic, up from 20,059 a day earlier.

    The Covid Zero thang doesn’t seem to be going too well. 😐

  40. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, November 17, 2022 at 10:05 pm
    Holdenhillbilly @ #1384 Thursday, November 17th, 2022 – 9:32 pm

    China reported 23,276 new COVID-19 infections on Nov. 16, of which 2,388 were symptomatic and 20,888 were asymptomatic, the National Health Commission said on Thursday.

    That compared with 20,199 new cases a day earlier – 1,623 symptomatic and 18,576 asymptomatic infections, which China counts separately.

    Excluding imported infections, China reported 23,132 new local cases, of which 2,328 were symptomatic and 20,804 were asymptomatic, up from 20,059 a day earlier.

    The Covid Zero thang doesn’t seem to be going too well.
    ____________________________
    Has President Xi got a North Face Jacket?

  41. Any way alix smith is starting to write the story of the libs in criciss weve known this for a year at least i disagree that masola was ballenced even when laborwas leading in the poles he kept on writting that aukus morrisons wife and even this weeks story includes a few myths like the fact that frydenberg being the most popular mp that is debatable duton would be for the conservatives frydenberg did not seem to have any real leadership qqualities did not seem to have any core beliefs earlwood minns will be premier in march labor would not be a winable position with the failed daley if daleys ggroup disliked minns so much whiy did they undermine mckay to bring daley back

  44. buy far the worst pease of rubish Masola wrote obveously a leak from pmo thatwhen the solamon islands signed the china security agreement he quoated senyor soursis blaming solely marise payne for the failure to stop the deal and said her low key media performents and her lack of internashanal travel were to blameobsolving morrison of responsability also said when frydenberg released his election budget that the cash splash would produce an other miracle or words to that effect masola was nelly as bad as coorey yes he did a few strories on higens but was one of the leading premoaters of the mean girls given since election there is noleaks claiming marles is to close to china it is prity clear who the labor leaker was

  47. One last post for Socrates to read at his leasure: this is a popular science article explaining the ‘Rapid Dragon’ palletised missile delivery system more fully. The author hypothesises that the C-17 will actually stack in 5 x 9 missile pallets, but I’ve read elsewhere that 4 x 4 pallets (16 missiles) are under consideration and that the USAF could end up going for 4 of these per plane (64 missiles in total). Other configurations include side by side stacking in the wider C-17 – so something like two ‘trains’ of 3 x 9 missile pallets (or 54 missiles in total). However any way you slice it a C-17 should be able to carry up to 3 times the missile load of a conventional strategic bomber (B52, B1 or B2s).

    The introduction and max production of the B-21 was supposed to make the B-52 finally obsolete, but palletised munitions in cargo planes may actually do that this decade. …

    Which begs the question, doesnt it? Why are the Americans and we thinking about basing B-52s at Tindal again? Sounds sus to me: an empty sabre rattling gesture if ever there was one (and the complete absence of planning for Iron Dome type missile defence systems really gives the game away doesn’t it? B-52s in australia is really an exercise in aerial Potemkin Villages).

    https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a38584553/air-force-turns-cargo-plane-into-bomber/

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