Victorian election minus two weeks

Candidates finalised and ballot paper draws conducted; preferences lined up ahead of Sunday’s publication of group voting tickets; and Roy Morgan joins the campaign poll consensus of a big Labor win.

Ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday, to be followed on Monday by the start of two weeks of early voting. The Poll Bludger election guide pages now feature full candidate lists for the lower house in ballot paper order, and will be further updated in the odd idle moment over the fortnight to come. As always, Antony Green has a summary of candidate nominations which startlingly illustrates the record-smashing 740 lower house candidates, 454 upper house candidates and 178 upper house groups. Some noteworthy points: Daniel Andrews will be among a field of 14 in Mulgrave, although little or nothing became of businessman Andrew King’s plan to enlist 50 independents, beyond King nominating himself; Catherine Cumming, Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party-turned-independent upper house member for Western Metropolitan, will run with the Angry Victorians party; and former Greens MLC Nina Springle is the Reason Party candidate for North-Eastern Metropolitan region.

The next big event will be the publication of group voting tickets on Sunday. The Liberals it seems have abandoned their practice over the past three elections of directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, and will at least be doing the reverse in the Northcote, Richmond and Albert Park. When the Liberals switched to putting the Greens last, the Greens share of overall preference flows fell from about three-quarters to two-fifths, suggesting the move could boost their two-party share compared with last time by well over 5%. The Australian reported on Tuesday that “some Labor figures” were looking to prod the Liberals into such a move by directing preferences to them ahead of teal independents in Kew and Hawthorn, albeit that the notion had been met by “internal reluctance”.

Finally, Roy Morgan has an SMS poll showing Labor leading 57-43 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 40%, Coalition 29%, Greens 11.5%, “teal independents” on 4.5% and fully 15% scattered among various other contenders. Forced response leadership questions had Daniel Andrews at 58.5% approval and 41.5% disapproval and leading Matthew Guy as preferred premier by 65.5-34.5. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1030.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

129 comments on “Victorian election minus two weeks”

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  1. Labor is very much the tenants’ friend, so much so that my landlady sister is outraged. Her tenants have more rights than she has (she feels).

  2. Yeah Greens outside their target seats have been very invisible. Seen material from other minor parties, random independents and socialists but nothing from Greens. Don’t know what to think of it.

  3. Adam says:
    Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 2:18 pm

    MABWN – I would argue that the Victorian Teals Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel are much more progressive than the Teals in Sydney. I wouldn’t call the Teals in Melbourne like the Liberals of Menzies at all.
    the Liberal Party and earlier conservative parties had a Deakin Liberal faction so its possible for Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel to have been Menzies era Liberals and Menzies was popular with professionals and educated voters and women.

    There is a difference between Melbourne and Sydney Teals that might reflect the cultural difference between Melbourne and Sydney.

  4. Jeremysays:
    Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 2:52 pm
    Hornberger, Coalition won’t form government, their odds should be 50 to 1. Minority Labor huge chance with 15 to 20 crossbenchers.

    Hang in there Jezza!
    Huge chance like winning powerball perhaps.
    If the independents make some progress it will be at the expense of both the Liberals and the Greens.

    Simply, the voters in Victoria are “as happy as” under the circumstances.
    The MSM is becoming more and more irrelevant and the “jackboot: days of the Liberal right and their partners in business is now completely unacceptable.
    The Liberals will need to re-invent themselves.

  5. goll at 3.02 pm PB today that guy Jeremy did declare that –

    “Adam, Victoria is known as the Massechutis( sorry, I’m drunk) of Australia for a reason. Or is that Melbourne. As l said apologies I’m drunk”

  6. Gettysburg1863, you do know congress is referred to as both houses. At this stage Democrats will control the Senate(might need VP to cast decididing vote). The “house” is yet to be determined. The commentators on this site have no idea about politics. Go back to grade six and repeat politics 101. And I’m drunker than 3ish. WOW, the imbeciles that commentate on this blog.

  7. So the facts are that Guy’s teacher, hero and role model, Kennett, is leaving Hawthorn Football Club in the same circumstances he left Victoria in

    A rabble

    The election at Hawthorn FC is about who can distance themselves from Kennett by the greatest distance

    Look at the comments of Gowers, a Presidential candidate

    Kennett has left a black hole (before we get to the other matters which have substance and will have a consequence)

    Guy obviously subscribes to aligning with Kennett being a vote winner

    So who wants a Premier who uses Kennett as his mentor?

    Not even Hawthorn FC want Kennett

  8. @William

    I’ve got a question about the Group Voting Tickets. Would you be able to calculate the outcome of the Upper House election of 2022 if the numbers were exactly the same as the 2018 election? I’m somewhat curious about that and what changes would be made in party representation there, if any.

  9. @ Kirsdarke

    I don’t think you could do a precise calculation because of the different parties contesting and because of BLT voting, however you could point to outcomes that would likely have been different. For example, the ALP, Greens, Legalise Cannabis, the Animal Justice Party, Vic Socialists and Reason Party are effectively acting as a progressive bloc. With each of the 5 parties putting each other into their respective top 5 in most of regions.

    In the Southern Metro Region in 2018, the ALP, Greens, the Animal Justice Party, Vic Socialists and Reason Party collectively got 3.07 quotas (Legalise Cannabis didn’t contest in 2018). With the 2022 GVT, it would have meant the Greens winning the 5th spot ahead of the Transport Matters.

  10. Kevin Bonham also tweeted a link to the GVT sheets.

    I had a look before, obviously I haven’t done the maths, but it jumped out to me that in my region (SE Metro) Legalise Cannabis seem to be featuring pretty high in a bunch of tickets, across the spectrum. Everyone else was kind of up and down. Maybe Druery’s deal is for LC to get a seat here, in return for others snowballing in others?

    And as I mentioned on the Tallyroom as well, I found it amusing that the “Sack Dan Andrews” Party in SE Metro has preferenced Labor ahead of both the Libs and the Greens…

  11. Top ends of Labor and Animal Justice preference orders run as follows.


    EV: Legalise Cannabis, Reason, Animal Justice, Victorian Socialists, Shooters, Greens
    NEM: Reason, AJ, LC, VS, Transport Matters, Greens
    NM: Reason, VS, LC, AJ, Greens
    NV: AJ, LC, Reason, VS, Greens
    SEM: LC, AJ, VS, Reason, Justice, Greens
    SM: LC, AJ, VS, Reason, Greens
    WM: LC, VS, Reason, AJ, Greens
    WV: AJ, Reason, VS, LC, Justice, Shooters, Greens

    Animal Justice:

    EV: Legalise Cannabis, Victorian Socialists, Reason, Labor, Greens
    NEM: Reason, VS, Greens, Labor
    NM: VS, Reason, LC, Greens, Labor
    NV: VS, Reason, LC, Labor, Greens
    SEM: LC, VS, Reason, Greens, Labor
    SM: Greens, VS, Reason, LC, Labor
    WM: AJ, VS, LC, Reason, Greens, Labor
    WV: Reason, LC, Greens, Labor

  12. Kirsdarke – 1001pm

    Antony Green usually produces an online calculator on the ABC elections site (and this time it will be a MASSIVE amount of work to do). Much as we hate GVT’s it does make these calculators more accurate than say the Federal Senate predictors. I have spent many hours in past elections tweaking various micro-parties by parts of one per cent and you can get some weird outcomes – as in fact happens in real life!

  13. I had a look at Southern Metro.

    I see that ALP, AJP, Reason, Socialists, Greens and Legalise Cannabis have all put each other as the top 6 groups which should help shut out any of the nuttier groups and hopefully help the Greens chances of winning the 5th seat back.

    I noticed a lot of the populist/freedom type parties put Sustainable Australia very high, probably hoping they beat the Greens again, but last time I believe Reason and AJP preferenced them over the Greens too (strangely) which really made the difference.

    Also interesting to note is Liberals and UAP putting each other second. Says a lot about the Libs pandering to anti-lockdown populists.

    I think the Greens should win the 5th seat quite easily this time.

  14. AJP have Reason third behind the Victorian Socialists in Northern Metro too.

    With both ALP and Greens having them second (and AJP and VS having them third) I think Fiona Patten has a great chance to hold.

  15. Trent

    Yes there often seems to be a tendency for parties to look at what they did last time (e.g. helping elect Sustainable Australia) and then trying to make sure they at least avoid that mistake again.

    You would think those exchanges in Southern Metro (you must be more patient than I am – it is like sorting through a Dog’s regurgitated breakfast looking at these!) would make it reasonably likely that Labor/Greens +/- one of those other four will end up with three of the five seats.

    Looking forward to Antony’s calculators (no pressure!) and trying to model what may happen.

  16. Northern Met is interesting.

    In 2018 Labor, Greens, VS, Reason and AJP had more than 4 quotas between them (in that order of primaries) with Legalise Cannabis joining the left bloc, I can only imagine that will ensure a safe 4 quotas, keeping Somyurek out, who the Druery group appear to be preferencing in that region.

    The balance between LC, Green over quota and AJP will determine the three corner contest between the remaining Labor quota, VS and Reasons. Reason wins if in 1st or 2nd, (which isn’t guaranteed!), but if 3rd, then VS wins.

    Out of the 3, VS does the best off the preferences from the collection of freaks, but would those votes ever reach them? I imagine they’d likely get stuck in the (hopefully) doomed Somyurek quota, so Reason would likely end up winning, but you never know, especially with the very substantial campaign VS is running this time.

    If VS are ahead on primaries, Reason can only catch them on Greens over quota and LC, but AJP go to VS.

    If Labor drop just .2 of a quota, Reason should be pretty safe, but if Labor and Greens both drop a little (presumable to LC, Reason and VS), then it’s possible Reason gets distributed to get Greens over the line (assuming AJP and LC have reasonably similar vote shares and VS repeat their larger primary than Reason), then VS wins the 5th seat.

    On the other hand, if Greens build more over quota, that would help Reason’s chances.

    On top of all that, I think it’s the region with the highest BLT vote, making it even more complex!

  17. The corrupt media are the ones in hiding , if things were improving for the corrupt media on the propaganda attack against Labor/Andrews there would have been opinion polls galore released

  18. So, so many people I loathe in my region (Western Metro). It’s a toss up between Catherine Cumming, Moira Deeming and Bernie Finn on who is the most detestable.

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