Ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday, to be followed on Monday by the start of two weeks of early voting. The Poll Bludger election guide pages now feature full candidate lists for the lower house in ballot paper order, and will be further updated in the odd idle moment over the fortnight to come. As always, Antony Green has a summary of candidate nominations which startlingly illustrates the record-smashing 740 lower house candidates, 454 upper house candidates and 178 upper house groups. Some noteworthy points: Daniel Andrews will be among a field of 14 in Mulgrave, although little or nothing became of businessman Andrew King’s plan to enlist 50 independents, beyond King nominating himself; Catherine Cumming, Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party-turned-independent upper house member for Western Metropolitan, will run with the Angry Victorians party; and former Greens MLC Nina Springle is the Reason Party candidate for North-Eastern Metropolitan region.
The next big event will be the publication of group voting tickets on Sunday. The Liberals it seems have abandoned their practice over the past three elections of directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, and will at least be doing the reverse in the Northcote, Richmond and Albert Park. When the Liberals switched to putting the Greens last, the Greens share of overall preference flows fell from about three-quarters to two-fifths, suggesting the move could boost their two-party share compared with last time by well over 5%. The Australian reported on Tuesday that “some Labor figures” were looking to prod the Liberals into such a move by directing preferences to them ahead of teal independents in Kew and Hawthorn, albeit that the notion had been met by “internal reluctance”.
Finally, Roy Morgan has an SMS poll showing Labor leading 57-43 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 40%, Coalition 29%, Greens 11.5%, “teal independents” on 4.5% and fully 15% scattered among various other contenders. Forced response leadership questions had Daniel Andrews at 58.5% approval and 41.5% disapproval and leading Matthew Guy as preferred premier by 65.5-34.5. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1030.
Jeremy, try to comment without the insults. It’s not hard!
You accuse others of bullying, yet can’t resist snide put downs, in every comment you make. It is tedious, dull, unimaginative and boring.
Btw, Alpo has a very firm grasp of the English language.
I expect to see you here on 27/11 genuflecting.
Alpo – 205pm
With regard to Family First’s ‘decision’ to preference against Liberals – I’ve seen this movie before. Family First have read the tea leaves and can see that Labor is likely heading to another big majority win. So anything FF do will have no impact this time. Thus they are thinking about the ‘long game’ and trying to influence the Liberals to go further to the right by doing this.
Of course this tactic is likely a certain loser – if they did influence the Liberals to go further right they would likely be contributing to Labor winning an uncommon 4th term in 2026, and if they didn’t influence them then FF will come back cap in hand preferencing the Liberals anyway in 2026 in what is likely to be a closer election. Thus revealing their 2022 ‘threat’ as hollow and transparent.
Jeremy says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 6:57 pm
Alpo. Do you understand the English language.
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If you did, you’d realise that asking a question is grammatically ended with a ?
You’re tedious and post nothing of value.
Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatismsays:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 7:19 pm
Dr John says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 7:17 pm
Alpo
After the Jeremy virtually illiterate vomit directed at you at 6.57 pm I recommend don’t engage and like myself earlier today keep your dignity (and PB’s) and give him life.
中华人民共和国
Did you have a punt today cobber?
———————
Only a couple of bets on gallopers at Cranbourne and even one bet upnorth way on trainer mate horse at Doomben R9 got beat.
However, still assiduously involved this evening (with Peroni in hand) worming around Victorian election market arbitrage as is norm.
Dr John says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 7:32 pm
Upnorth – Be Proud of your Pragmatismsays:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 7:19 pm
Dr John says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 7:17 pm
Alpo
After the Jeremy virtually illiterate vomit directed at you at 6.57 pm I recommend don’t engage and like myself earlier today keep your dignity (and PB’s) and give him life.
中华人民共和国
Did you have a punt today cobber?
———————
Only a couple of bets on gallopers at Cranbourne and even one bet upnorth way on trainer mate horse at Doomben R9 got beat.
However, still assiduously involved this evening (with Peroni in hand) worming around Victorian election market arbitrage as is norm.
中华人民共和国
Nice cobber. Had mates in the Melb Cup winner Syndicate. They are off to Italy for Christmas. Deep pockets though.
中华人民共和国
Nice cobber. Had mates in the Melb Cup winner Syndicate. They are off to Italy for Christmas. Deep pockets though.
———————————-
19 owners in Gold Trip including many syndicates as is norm these days.
My family horse won the Cup Day hurdle (and hit every jump in run) 45 years ago, they virtually concluded jumps at Flemington around that time.
Dr John says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 7:53 pm
中华人民共和国
Nice cobber. Had mates in the Melb Cup winner Syndicate. They are off to Italy for Christmas. Deep pockets though.
———————————-
19 owners in Gold Trip including many syndicates as is norm these days.
My family horse won the Cup Day hurdle (and hit every jump in run) 45 years ago, they virtually concluded jumps at Flemington around that time.
中华人民共和国
My Greyhound won three races at the Townsville Showgrounds. We made more money from “Stud” fees than winnings.
MAWBM, l think the only certainty on election night will be Coalition can’t form government. A few close results won’t be known for at least a few days and hopefully those results go against Labor. So I’ll probably be around until December. Also, why would l take the insults and name calling and not give it back to the bullies. Bullies don’t like being called out. Self respect MAWBM. You should get some.
Antony Green will call the election for the ALP at 7.03pm with 7% of the vote counted.
Even LNP shills masquerading as Greens/Independents voters know it.
I will be barely back from the booth when the result is confirmed.
Who is this MAWBM of whom Jeremy speaks? I hope he/she is feeling ok after that vicious takedown!
MABWM says:
Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 9:02 pm
Who is this MAWBM of whom Jeremy speaks? I hope he/she is feeling ok after that vicious takedown!
————————
Surely can’t be feeling OK and/or liberated as repeatedly now playing the victim!
Dr John, are you implying I am playing the victim?
If so, I will modify my behaviour. – Dr’s orders.
This victorian election campaign seems to be a big failure by the corrupt media.
Could it be the lib/nats are going to end up in the low 20’s or high teens number of seats
Kevin Bonham has a detailed wrap up of current Vic polling and context here:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/11/victorian-lower-house-not-all-that-much.html
No telephone voting on election day for those with COVID, meaning that early voting is encouraged. I suspect that many people with mild symptoms would vote in person anyway, in the absence of a mandatory isolation rule, if only to avoid a fine (though a fine can also be avoided by registering a RAT or PCR test result on or around election day , for anyone diligent enough to get tested).
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/how-to-vote-or-avoid-a-fine-if-you-get-covid-19-20221109-p5bwum.html
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-13/our-vanishing-old-growth-forests/101641964
Jeremy , you sound like a desperate 12 year old .
when the very comfortable labour win is called before 7.30 you can drift away like a fart in the wind.
Oh and double triple no returns , infinity.
The Kevin Bonham article cited by Max, above is mandatory reading.
Thank you Max and Dr Kevin.
Kevin Bonham’s assessment is excellent I think, great article!
On another note, Crikey’s Sunday email had a very astute summary of the Victorian Liberals in a article about the differences between the NSW and VIC Liberals and direction of the party. An excerpt:
“What’s happening in the Victorian Liberal Party ahead of the state election this month? It’s running ads attacking COVID vaccinations and siding with extremist protesters, using offensive language to describe Premier Dan Andrews — one of its candidates called for Andrews to be “brought to justice” for murder.
The party has been infiltrated by far-right religious groups that attack LGBTIQA+ people and women’s reproductive rights. The Liberals have previously encouraged lurid conspiracy theories about Andrews, which News Corp is trying to revive, and multiple MPs have joined protests at which extremists demanded the murder of the premier.
This matches in every way the descent of the Republican Party into fascism in the United States: the embracing of extremism and conspiracy theories; the parallel activities with parts of News Corp to promote conspiracy theories; the mainstreaming of violent rhetoric against opponents and aggressive political tactics by religious fundamentalists. It’s at an altogether earlier and far smaller stage, but it copies in miniature what is occurring in the US.”
Kelta, nice of you to join the conversation and insult me. Join the herd and get in on the bullying. I actually feel sorry for a lot of the sheep on this site. Those bullied as children often becomes bullies themselves. Kelta, get help.
Trent, l believe the Kevin Bonham assessment made it clear “minority Labor” still a distinct possibility.
“low but realistic chance of Labor minority”. Not that far off from my circa 30% chance. My main difference is that l believe we will have more than the “at least five” independents. I’m in the more 10 plus camp along with six or seven Greens.
Anyone watch Insiders this morning?
Talk about a stacked panel – everyone of them Newsltd hacks having cracks at Labor especially over IR reform and energy.
So, in my humble opinion, anyone that has disagreed with my assessment(and insulted me) that a Labor minority government is a distinct possibility also thinks the same as Kevin Bonham as they do of me. Hope you all get on his site and post vitriol comments directed at him as you have to me. A.lot of you are hypocrites.
Will you ever stop whingeing Jeremy?
Toby Esterhase, do you just post on this site to be cruel to me. Pathetic and mean person you are.
Toby Esterhase @ #74 Sunday, November 13th, 2022 – 10:40 am
How to deal with a troll.
It isn’t going to change,so the best way to deal with it is to starve it of oxygen ,just block it or ignore it.
Jeremy, you have completely invented a fictional narrative that somewhere I said there is no possibility of a minoroty government.
Let me repeat for you real slow because you clearly struggle to read.
Minority…… government…. is….. possible….. but…. no…. evidence…. points… to… it… being… the… most… likely….. outcome.
Got it???
That’s been my consistent position the ENTIRE time. It’s consistent with Kevin Bonham’s article, everyone else is saying the same, and even you’re saying the same now (originally you said minority was more likely). I never once said it’s not a possibility. I challenge you to find where I did.
If you can’t, then can you finally shut the f**k up for a while, stop trolling, and stop trying to pick fights where there isn’t one? Everyone is sick of you constantly posting 4 comments in a row saying the same thing.
Repeatedly saying “Vote Greens or Independent” and advertising for Sportsbet isn’t psephology talk.
It’s highly likely the Greens’ vote will fall a smidgen at this election.
Why? Because Animal Justice is contesting every seat this time, instead of only half of them. Last time, AJ’s vote share rose by 1.6 percentage points, which is twice the amount by which the Greens’ fell. I’m expecting a similar result again.
I’m also expecting one or two posters on this blog to see this as evidence that the Greens are in decline.
EightES, progressive independents like the Teals will also eat into the Green vote. However with an increased AJP, Victorian socialist and progressive independent l still see the Greens increasing vote to circa 14%. How many extra % would the Greens have got at Federal election if not for Teals.
My best guess is the statewide Greens vote will be between 15-20%. 80% of that will still go back to the ALP as high preferences. This makes a complete mockery of the argument that Primary Vote is the only issue in town. It isn’t. We have mandatory and preferential voting. We should thank our lucky stars for that every day. It is the one thing that saves us from the political wiles of fringe lunatics a la the US Repug party/ US ‘democracy’.
The Teals are a whole different beast to the Greens and they are by no means progressive. By and large they are the Liberals of the Menzies era as opposed to the current LNP who are the political love child of the Murdoch rags, the business uber alles consortium, and fundamentalist right wing ultra conservative “Christians”. The collapse in the Liberal Party vote is merely a realignment. The RWNJ have successfully run the ‘moderates’ out of town.
The people of Victoria have largely woken up to the fact that the Liberal Party is liberal in name only.
On the hustings these last few weeks the glaringly obvious thing has been that save for the LNP candidate in our electorate himself, his political compadres have been balding late middle aged white men in undersized and il-fitting blue T-shirts. They have not engaged the net generation. The Greens have.
Middle aged balding white man. The thing is with the increase of Green vote, Independents vote, this could well elect one of the Greens or independents before the vote would’ve transferred to ALP. Thus ALP miss out on a seat they would’ve got if Greens and independents vote not so high. Fascinating election and l think we’ll see a record vote for Greens, independents, AJP and Victorian socialists.
You are 100% correct regarding Liberals being “dinosaurs”. The old are dying and the young don’t have assets to “conserve” thus vote Greens who care about house prices, rents, climate change, free education etc etc. Why would they vote for anybody else.
MABWM
Recently stuck in slow traffic in Glenferrie Rd Hawthorn for some time I noted the people canvassing for the Teal were also mostly over 50. As you said – a lot of these candidates (and their canvassers) would be Liberals if their party hadn’t gone so nuts.
Jeremy says:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 12:41 pm
You are 100% correct regarding Liberals being “dinosaurs”. The old are dying and the young don’t have assets to “conserve” thus vote Greens who care about house prices, rents, climate change, free education etc etc. Why would they vote for anybody else.
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That doesn’t explain the Liberals problems in its heartland and the Greens were only growing in those areas because there wasn’t an alternative before the Teals and if it was true that rent was the big issue then the Andrews government would be picking up big swings because of its tenancy reforms.
@Rocket Rocket,
The LNP have been “taken over”, as my old friend Rodney Cavalier used to say “Lock, stock and dividend stream” by the RWNJs. *
It has taken a while but the masses have caught on. This is no longer the party of Menzies, or even Mal Fraser. Possibly, not even Mal Turnbull.
The result is the ‘nice’ liberals have been drummed out or fled. Only the reactionaries remain. And they are horrid.
It is interesting that Lyle Shelton, who used to be the face of “Christians” is hiding behind Family First this election.
Our local Fredumb upper house candidate was on the hustings the other day. He was very keen to chat to me for some reason (I thought the green T-shirt and badge might have been a deterrent, but Wodeva). He told me two things that were of interest:
1) He supported family values.
2) He was all in favour of ‘conservative’ supply side Jesus types taking over the LNP. (“We have to get this country back on track!” – he MAGAed.)
A little scratching revealed he was a climate change denying homophobe in a nice suit with a good haircut.
Now I am in a quandary as to who to put last on my ballot paper. The Liberals are actually going to be about 4th on my ballot of 8 (Green, Labor, AJP, Liberals, RWNJs, joke independent who is in fact a cranky ex-lib, racist homophobes). I will probably stick with One Nation last, out of habit.
I am one of those voters the ALP loathes. They get my vote in the end but it deflates their primary vote. Muwahahahaha! The only downside is the Murdochracy get a non-sensical talking point.
We will see a record low Lib/Lab vote, no doubt. But at the end of the day we are still, on the current polling, on track for Danslide II.
* (Sir Rodney was speaking of careerists taking over the ALP, but the expression applies.)
Mexicanbeemer, ALP no friend of the tenant. Public housing in Victoria is a disgrace, worse in Australia. ALP have had 16 of the last 20 years to fix. ALP no friend of the tenant or those that need public housing. Greens their friend. ALP look after developer mates. Teals, socially progressive, economically conservative.and are no religious nutjobs.
Jeremy says:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 1:46 pm
Mexicanbeemer, ALP no friend of the tenant. Public housing in Victoria is a disgrace, worse in Australia. ALP have had 16 of the last 20 years to fix. ALP no friend of the tenant or those that need public housing. Greens their friend. ALP look after developer mates. Teals, socially progressive, economically conservative.and are no religious nutjobs.
————————–
The Greens talk about public housing but when they get control they oppose it and in the Teal areas public housing is not the big issue hurting the Liberals.
Jeremy says:
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 1:46 pm
Mexicanbeemer, ALP no friend of the tenant. Public housing in Victoria is a disgrace, worse in Australia. ALP have had 16 of the last 20 years to fix. ALP no friend of the tenant or those that need public housing. Greens their friend. ALP look after developer mates. Teals, socially progressive, economically conservative.and are no religious nutjobs.
中华人民共和国
Geez cobber you sure you aren’t backing “The Angry Victorians Party”? You got a lot of shit on your liver. Wasn’t going to jump into this Mexican knife fight but hey you are one cranky camper.
MABWN – I would argue that the Victorian Teals Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel are much more progressive than the Teals in Sydney. I wouldn’t call the Teals in Melbourne like the Liberals of Menzies at all.
The betting odds have moved in Labor favour again, after a brief period of tightening following the Newspoll 54-46 result. Liberals have gone from $8 to $11 on bet365 and from $7.50 to $9.00 on Sportsbet.
This has to be the most lackluster election campaign that I can remember. Everyone thinks the result is a foregone conclusion. Labor is for the most campaigning on their record without offering anything particularly new or exciting and the Liberals are just phoning it in.
Mexicanbeemer, concur regarding Greens opposition to new developments. Understand Teals opposition. NIMBY’s. Also if Greens cared about environmental they would be anti immigration. UP NORTH. Up yours. I’m middle aged and angry at all political parties. Some are better(a lot better) than others. You just jump on this site to kick me also UP NORTH??? Everyone needs to get off their parties bandwagon, it ain’t football. I’m a Hawthorn supporter and outraged at their treatment of indigenous players but suppose it’s my religion and I’ll barrack for em anyway. Politics different. How can people on this blog unreservedly vote ALP despite their huge failings.
Hornberger, Coalition won’t form government, their odds should be 50 to 1. Minority Labor huge chance with 15 to 20 crossbenchers.
@Jeremy, “Also if Greens cared about environmental they would be anti immigration.”
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Gotta pull you up on this one. The impact population has on climate and environment is global, not local, and immigration doesn’t increase population, it moves it.
That’s a false link usually not made by those who are environmentally conscious, but by those trying to justify not being environmentally conscious by deflecting to a perceived (but not real) hypocrisy. Nothing more than a “Well you’re in no position to lecture me!” line.
Adam, Victoria is known as the Massechutis( sorry, I’m drunk) of Australia for a reason. Or is that Melbourne. As l said apologies I’m drunk
Trent, you bring a human from a low emissions country to a high emission country that ain’t good for environment. Plus you bring doctors and other skilled professionals into Australia at the detriment of their home country. We should educate our own. Yes, I’m in favour of family reunions and those immigrants seeking asylum. 8 billion people on this planet as of next Tuesday. That’s not good.
And sorry moderator but good news. Democrats win Nevada to ensure control of Senate.
I dont watch TV and have adblocker for youtube.
How is the ad campaign going on between the parties?
@ Jeremy
It appears that the Dems will hold the Senate, yes.
What is now interesting is whether the Repugnants will get to a majority lead in the Congress.
Maybe, but barely so. So much for the Red Wave…. but of course Humpty Trumpty will blame everyone for the fuckup he’s caused- his rigged SCOTUS team and their anti- abortion ruling.
Will someone in the Repugnants finally wake-up that he’s the cause of their failure?
Much maligned and ridiculed Joe is having the last laugh.
Back home, will the Vic Libs likely massacre at the end of November create a wake-up call ?
Much maligned and abused Dan will have the last laugh.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/11/firing-blanks-victorian-teal-open-how.html
Firing Blanks: The Victorian Teal Open How-To-Vote Cards Dispute
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/11/victorian-lower-house-not-all-that-much.html
Victorian Lower House: Not All That Much Narrowing Here
Maybe it’s just my seat, but the Greens seem less engaged than normal.
Last election, the polls before Der Tag had the Greens pretty well pegged, so I’d be surprised if they get more than 12%.
Of course, if that 12% is centred on certain seats, that might mean they pick up a couple.
If the Teals pick up a couple of seats – and they are unlikely to do more than that, there’s not the same vibe to this election – it will most likely be at the expense of the Liberals (they do have a chance in Hawthorn).
Can’t see the numbers to get Labor anywhere near minority government.