Victorian election minus two weeks

129 comments on “Victorian election minus two weeks”

1. 2 weeks and counting.

2. To quote a regular poster in the Victorian stream, this will be a fascinating election. Now that the ALP are firmly backed in as favourites what will happen? The libs referencing the Greens in 3 key seats will have interesting ramifications, for the Libs.

   The LNP will lose more seats than Labor do.

   See you on the hustings.

3. Snippets of an article in The Age this morning:

   Greens boosted by Libs preference plan: VICTORIA’S AGENDA
   The Age; Melbourne, Vic. [Melbourne, Vic]. 12 Nov 2022: 5.
   CREDIT: Annika Smethurst, Sumeyya Ilanbey and Lachlan Abbott

   “ The Coalition will send preferences to the Greens and put Labor last on its how-to-vote cards in a decision that will hurt Labor’s chances in three battleground seats and boost the likelihood of a hung parliament…

   …Opposition Leader Matthew Guy said, “while the Greens are bad, Daniel Andrews and Labor are worse”.

   “It is incumbent upon us to do everything possible to rid the state of Mr Andrews and his administration,” he said.

   The only exception would be in seats where candidates had “significant character or policy issues”.

4. So the Right Wing shrill, Le Grand, is now promoting sympathy for Guy as the reason to vote for him

   Guy makes unsubstantiated allegations

   This time that Andrews was not gracious when Guy rang him to concede after the last election.

   Andrews has been in the public eye including daily during the worst of the Pandemic, when numbers were driven to ZERO before furniture removalists introduced the virus to a high rise apartment building then to a community including a school

   He was hectored as he was by media, media we know has a party political bias

   And his response was there for all to see (assisted as he was by Public Health officials)

   And he stayed until the last question from a baying media pack

   I think the public may have a view of who and what Andreew is

   Further, thru National Cabinet, Andrews has the relationship he has with the NSW Premier, a Liberal

   By contrast, Guy is at best petulant

   And at worst name calling and childish

   So should Guy be Premier because that is what he has wanted to be since in primary school and wrote it on his school books (never then entering the World of commerce or industry as education)?

   And then the reference to Ukraine

   If Guy wants to fight a one Party State, perhaps he should return to Ukraine

   Because it is his hero Kennett and he who see Labor and its program dominant in Victorian politics

   Victorians handed government to Kennett, and then kicked him out

   Victorians also voted for Baillieu who was defeated in the Party Room as elected Premier hence a one term government

   Compare Ted Bailliue with Kennett and Guy

   Compare Andrews with Kennett and Guy

   Would Andrews tell Victorians to toughen up when they had no hot water due to a gas supply failure or throw a spade full of sand at journalists?

   He would not and dos not

   Andrews fought for Victorians when Morrison gave advantage to NSW in the distribution of vaccines

   Andrews was articulate and accurate in prosecuting his argument on behalf of Victorians – and successful

   Therein lies the difference

5. MABWM, l believe that Liberals(doubtful) could lose seats and we still end up with minority Labor. Over 30% non Labor/Coalition vote could elect plenty Greens/independents. Andrew’s is corrupt. Heath system stuffed. We got locked up. Media waging war against Andrew’s. Cost of living. Interest rates. Duck shooting/logging. Education. Broken promises. The list could go on endlessly. I just can’t see a swing to Labor. I still believe 52/53 2pp to Labor and this will most likely elect a minority Labor government which will be magnificent for transparency and stop the corruption.

6. MABWM, l believe that Liberals(doubtful) could lose seats and we still end up with minority Labor. Over 30% non Labor/Coalition vote could elect plenty Greens/independents. Andrew’s is corrupt. Heath system stuffed. We got locked up. Media waging war against Andrew’s. Cost of living. Interest rates. Duck shooting/logging. Education. Broken promises. The list could go on endlessly. I just can’t see a swing to Labor. I still believe 52/53 2pp to Labor and this will most likely elect a minority Labor government which will be magnificent for transparency and stop the corruption.

7. Does anyone have information on the Greens recommending preferences to Independents above Labor in electorates that have a competitive independent candidate, including Brighton? And how to vote cards in Melton and SW Coast will be interesting. Fascinating election.
   Footscray, game on!!!

8. Look I’m a Qlder but I can totally dig the situation in Vic with an extremely hostile partisan anti ALP media the only thing the useless LNP has going for it. In Qld the local Murdochcracy has it in for Labor as well ( surprise surprise) the problem with this constant attack on unreasonable grounds is that real sensible scrutiny gets lost in the fog of Murdoch ideology. I really hope Albo and co have some media legislation up their sleeves down the track as Murdochcracy leads to autocracy and eventually a Putin style setup.

9. Macca RB – 707am

   Even losing those three seats in NSW would drive the Coalition into minority government. This seems to be the current problem for the Coalition – losing blue ribbon seats is making it impossible for them to win majority government any more. And the Nationals in NSW versus SFF party contributes, from the ‘other’ side and the Coalition can’t pivot to both ends of the spectrum to save seats at both ends.

   I had forgotten about optional preferential voting in NSW. It always reminds me of Aesop’s Fable of the stork and the fox. Because in Queensland from memory Labor introduced it knowing it would harm the then separate Liberal and National Parties, especially with the ‘spoiler’ vote of One Nation. But Labor became rather less keen on it as the Greens vote grew, and the LNP became one party!

   I imagine Terrigal itself is a bit like Victor Harbor in SA – lots retirees who will vote Liberal forever.

   I suppose you are in the Federal seat of Dobell which at least has gone both ways over the years.

   Watching some coverage of the US elections I was reflecting how right wing commentators always say things like “Why do people in these big Democratic cities keep voting for more crime etc?” (possibly they vote Democrat because the alternative would strip out more social spending and make things worse!) – yet these same commentators never say of the poorer Southern States “Why do the voters of Mississippi and Alabama keep voting in Republicans for more poverty, poor health, poor education and poor employment opportunities?”

10. You have to think that if the Greens win seats off Liberal preferences, a substantial portion of the right-wing commentorati will be a tad upset to say the least. Your average Sky News viewer probably hates Daniel Andrews more than the Greens, but those with newspaper columns don’t seem to agree with that.

11. Agree GodlessHeathen, which is the better. A minority Labor government or a few right wing commentators upset for a day or two? Decision to preference Greens could(everyone have a go at me. I’m a loony, no idea, trolling erc etc) make it a minority Labor which in turn make it a lot easier to be a majority Coalition government in four years. Thinking strategically them libs are, unlike a lot of posters on this site.

12. At this stage of the 2018 election, Labor was polling 40% on primaries, the Coalition 36, the Greens 10% and Others 12.5%. (Wikipedia lists the polls leading up to 2018).

    So the Morgan poll suggests that – as in the Federal election – the increased Others vote is at the expense of the Coalition, and is hardly making a dent on Labor.

    Based on these figures (and I admit it’s not like with like, and is Morgan), Labor’s primary on the day should be a couple of percentage points higher than now, ditto the Coalition (e.g. around 30%), and the Greens (who are, interestingly enough, not doing their usual list of seats they think they’re going to pick up, which suggests that either they’ve learnt something or they don’t think there ARE any seats they’ll pick up).

    The only change likely (on current polling) is that the Coalition will lose seats, probably to the Teals.

    The cookers were never going to vote Labor. They’re just less likely to give their first votes to the Coalition.

    (Caution: polls are only indications of voting intention at a particular point in time. There are still two weeks where Things Can Happen but – on current performances – this seems unlikely).

13. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/greens-hopes-boosted-as-liberals-plan-to-preference-labor-last-20221111-p5bxln.html?btis

14. Anyone hearing who Greens are recommending their preferences go in seats where their is a competitive independent(Melton, Bellarine, Point Cook, Caulfied, Hawthorn, Werribee, even Brighton)? Was a dirty deal done between Greens and Liberals to try and get minority Labor(or Coaltion minority) government? Fascinating election.

15. Greens wouldn’t do a “deal” with Liberals, that’s always trotted out and false.

    Greens may preference left-wing/progressive independents above Labor in seats like Hawthorn and Kew, but why would they preference angry cookers and conservative right-wingers in seats like Melton, Werribee, Point Cook and Brighton? Helping Labor lose seats to conservatives would only piss off their base and deter Labor/Greens swing voters in competitive seats.

16. We will see soon enough Trent. Dr John likes a wager. A friendly little one on who Greens preference in your seat of Brighton. You back Labor, I’ll back the independent?

17. Trent, do you think Dr Joe Garra and Dr Ian Birchall are cookers??? Or you referring to them as conservative right wingers??? WOW, I’m a socially progressive and they are to the right of me but, conservative right wingers……………….
    What are MP’s like Bernie Finn???

18. The Greens have preference the Liberals in the past but on an informal bases and the Greens refusal to work with the Liberals is why the ALP hasn’t had to worry too much about them and is why they have not made the gains the Teals have.

19. They’re right of Labor, and clearly tapping into anti-lockdown sentiment in the outer west for support (even if they aren’t explicitly anti-lockdown candidates themselves), therefore why would the Greens’ base prefer the Greens to help move a swag of seats further to the right, and elect MPs less likely to support Greens policy than Labor MPs?

    Labor could easily weaponise that and use it for scare campaigns against the Greens in ALP v GRN contests.

    The Greens have already made clear they’re preferencing Labor and “progressive independents”. So while that doesn’t tell you who they will preference in seats like Hawthorn, Caulfield and Kew, Birchall & Garra are far from “progressive independents”.

    Bernie Finn is nothing short of a damgerous, extreme far-right fascist who stood alongside people calling for the Premier to be murdered.

20. “You back Labor, I’ll back the independent?”
    ____________________________
    The Brighton independent is a Liberal whom has stood for Liberal preselection on 3 recent occasions. Where do you go there?
    Labor is $12 even though they nearly pulled it off last time, you’d better save.

21. Here’s an interesting nugget.

    The Age are reporting that Family First are looking to preference Labor over the Liberals in all but 9 lower house seats to send a message that the Liberals can’t rely on them for support unless they field candidates they consider to be conservative enough, trying to make a point that moderate Liberal MPs are no different to Labor.

    That pretty much guarantees that in close seats like Brighton, Caulfield, Hawthorn etc where the Liberal is considered “moderate” FF will almost certainly preference Labor.

    That said, will they even hand out HTV cards at all or even most polling places? Probably not so it could be a meaningless gesture.

    On another note, Liberals preferencing Greens could backfire.

    Firstly, it reinforces that the only two options are majority Labor, or minority Labor.

    The only likely configuration of a minority government is a Labor-Greens government.

    So, what will Labor/Liberal swing voters
    in marginal ALP/LIB seats who hate the Greens do? Vote Liberal to increase the chance of an ALP-Greens government or vote Labor to not risk a minority?

    Every election, talk of minority government drives voters to the party most likely to win. This strategy just emphasises the minority narrative and will help Labor. They must be loving it.

    Yeah they’ll lose Northcote and Richmond (probably would have anyway) but it’ll help them in Bayswater, Ringwood, Croydon, Brighton, Glen Waverley, Eildon, Polwarth, Sandringham, etc.

22. EXCLUSIVE! Andrews’ Secret Underground Exposed!!

    We can reveal that Daniel Andrews has been cultivating a secret underground movement, as the picture shows.

    This underground has been hidden away at his home, not seeing the light of day at any time.

    We are not implying that Andews has done anything improper or illegal.

    On being asked about this matter by journalists, Andrews said: “This is a personal matter that stays at home. I will not be answering any further questions about it. It is not relevant to the election, nor to the governance of this state.”

    Despite journalists stating that this matter was in the public interest, Andrews refused to answer follow-up questions, saying that he had already given his response.

    When journalists asked if this cover-up was indicative of a secretive government, despite the ALP’s proclamations of transparency and honesty, Andrews again refused to answer any questions on the matter.

    The picture was obtained from a confidential source, but seems that it was taken from a drone over-flying the Andrews’ home. Experts suggest that the garden bed is probably growing potatoes.

    ——————————————————–

    Apologies if this gives anyone conniptations, but while assisting in the garden earlier today, it came to me that potatoes are a secret underground movement, and this sprang “article” into the vacant area between my ears. I now await it being picked up by the HeraldSun and the Age.

23. Dr John. You a real doc??? Because you can’t read!!! l knew docs had terrible hand writing. I said I’d back the Greens preferencing Independents on “how to vote cards”. You back Greens preferencing Labor. This for your electorate of Brighton. Don’t believe any bookies offering odds on this. Just offering you a “gentlemens” wager between friends. That’s if you’ll be my friend.

24. It says the poll bludger guides feature full candidate lists for the lower house but I don’t see them?

25. Justin

    Click on the electorate you’re interested in.

26. Trent, Greens stated ambition is to get Labor into minority needing them to pass legislation. This is the best outcome to stop duck shooting, old growth logging, gas exploration near twelve apostles etc etc. Also why Labor taxing electric cars per km but those using dirty diesel Vline engines travel same price from Melton or Traralgon. Pissed off if l lived in Melton. Wouldn’t vote Labor if l did.

27. In order for the Liberals preferencing the Greens above the ALP to have effect that have to get a how to vote card into the hands of voters in seats where it matter. There are very few seats (probably only Prahran) where the Liberals will be going hard with manning booths where the Greens might need those preferences over Labor. I can’t see the Liberals going hard for example, in Northcote or Richmond, where it could also have an impact. But for those voters who do follow the card it might cause those seats to fall.

    From the federal election, Liberal voters were the most likely to follow the HTV card but even then it was only a small majority of voters.

28. “Finally, Roy Morgan has an SMS poll showing Labor leading 57-43 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 40%, Coalition 29%, Greens 11.5%, “teal independents” on 4.5% and fully 15% scattered among various other contenders. Forced response leadership questions had Daniel Andrews at 58.5% approval and 41.5% disapproval and leading Matthew Guy as preferred premier by 65.5-34.5. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1030.”

    Well, what can I say: Would you like some mayo on your Lobster?

    Bon appétit!

29. “Jeremy says:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 1:45 pm
    …. Wouldn’t vote Labor if l did.”

    Yes, Jeremy, we already know that… But the vast majority of Victorians disagree with you, have you ever asked yourself why?

30. “Trent says:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 12:56 pm
    Here’s an interesting nugget.

    The Age are reporting that Family First are looking to preference Labor over the Liberals in all but 9 lower house seats to send a message that the Liberals can’t rely on them for support unless they field candidates they consider to be conservative enough, trying to make a point that moderate Liberal MPs are no different to Labor.”

    Well, when the widespread expectation is that the Liberals will fall apart in Victoria, of course expect “righter-wingers” to come forward hoping to harvest some votes from the collapse.

31. One thing not talked about enough is that the Coalition may well be completely screwed in the upper house where all the cooker parties are running full slates. Almost all of the previous right wing parties are still on the ballot, and now add Family First, UAP, One Nation, Freedom Party, Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews, Angry Victorians none of which stood last time. These parties will decimate the Liberal primary and then transfer among themselves likely putting one of them in, unlike in the lower house when most of the votes will transfer back. And Legalise Cannabis is on the ballot this time too, one of the easiest targets for a protest vote from voters of any political stripe.

32. Jeremy

    So you wouldn’t vote for Labor if you lived in Melton.

    I assume that means that, as you don’t live in Melton, you’re going to vote Labor.

33. The Victorian Government should seek to legalise, tax and regulate cannabis in the next term. I don’t know why major parties don’t pick up on this issue in 2022.

34. The Greens were not always supporters of lockdowns.

35. Jeremy your dead to me.

36. I think the Greens would need to hold the balance of power in Legislative Assembly for legalisation of cannabis.
    Even then it’s a long shot.
    But yes the major parties should really take the lead on that issue.

37. Jeff seriously considered decriminalizing cannabis.

38. There was no Liberal on the booth I worked in Northcote at the federal election. They polled 10.7% in Northcote in 2018 (and it wouldn’t surprise me if they do even worse this time), so there probably won’t be that many Liberal preferences to distribute there.

    The Liberals are running quite an energetic campaign (largely self-funded by the candidate from reports) in Richmond, but have been totally invisible in Northcote.

39. The VEC is forcing “teals” to number all preferences on HTV cards.

    That will give voters an insight into who they’re more likely to support on the floor of parliament if elected, and therefore stunt their vote. Eg. They are unlikely to swing Labor/Greens voters if their HTV card indicates they’re more likely to align themselves with Liberals if elected, and vice versa.

    On top of that, there are politically illerate voters who would think their preference might end up with that party and it wod deter them.

    This is likely to hinder their chances of making it into a 2CP count.

40. Zoomster, we might not agree on a lot of things, but l do respect your knowledge and expertise on a lot of things political. Ideally l want Labor party re-elected with Greens or ideally a Teal(s) needed for passing legislation. Not much chance(1%) of minority Coalition or majority Coalition. Thus, yes minority Labor l see as a damn good chance(30% plus). Both major parties are corrupt and a cancer on democracy and my taxes. Labor has no respect for my personal freedoms and the environment. Liberals are unelectable and l hate the religious right fringe that has taken over the party. I’m hoping Teals and Greens eventually(four election cycles) will form a coalition government. I also think independents(go Jacquie in Benambra, your electorate l think) are way better to represent the constituency than any party. Vote independent or Greens as Labor DO NOT deserve to be returned in a majority government and Coalition are a pathetic remnants of the Menzies era. All the best Zoomster, l do appreciate your posts and knowledge and expertise of politics. What a fascinating night 26th will be. Unlike most Labor luvvies on this site you bring a decent discussion. Keep it up.

41. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/no-blanks-allowed-teal-candidate-in-hawthorn-weighs-legal-challenge-on-how-to-vote-cards-20221112-p5bxp9.html?btis

42. Anyone(Trent???) have an idea if resolve in the field. Methinks a resovle in the Age on Monday is a possibility. Any other polls including Morgan(pfttttt) expected next two weeks.

43. The teals won’t preference anyone on their HTV, they will just say to mark all the boxes with no visual. And for whatever reason, this only applies to election day, they are allowed to use blank boxes in early voting, which means they have to make two separate HTV’s, costing the campaign money. Completely ridiculous by the VEC.

    “Candidates are not required to register the design of their how-to-vote cards with the VEC for use during early voting, but must have them approved for election day” from the ABC article

44. Justin

    Every party has to have two sets of HtVs. We’ve been told to destroy the prepoll HtVs before election day, so that we don’t accidentally hand them out.

45. Justin says:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 6:18 pm
    The teals won’t preference anyone on their HTV, they will just say to mark all the boxes with no visual. And for whatever reason, this only applies to election day, they are allowed to use blank boxes in early voting, which means they have to make two separate HTV’s, costing the campaign money. Completely ridiculous by the VEC.…….
    *********
    It may or may not be ridiculous, but the VEC is simply applying the Victorian Electoral Act, which has had the requirement for Election Day card registration since 1985, in response to the Nunawadding by-election.
    (For what it’s worth, the distinction between pre-poll and on the day cards is because of the difficulty in preventing the impact of ‘misleading’ cards on Election Day, a much more manageable problem at pre poll).

46. And I’ve just noticed from the Age on line article that Melissa Lowe is chasing the Star Wars vote – “A new hope for Hawthorn”.

47. Alpo. Do you understand the English language. Labor polling approximately 35 to 40%. Majority is 50% + 1. Vast majority in my opinion would be 75% +. About double of what Labor is currently polling. Some commentators on this site…………………..

48. Alpo
    After the Jeremy virtually illiterate vomit directed at you at 6.57 pm I recommend don’t engage and like myself earlier today keep your dignity (and PB’s) and give him life.

49. Dr John says:
    Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 7:17 pm

    Alpo
    After the Jeremy virtually illiterate vomit directed at you at 6.57 pm I recommend don’t engage and like myself earlier today keep your dignity (and PB’s) and give him life.
    中华人民共和国
    Did you have a punt today cobber?

50. I have witnessed some old, rusted on Liberals spitting out “You are a traitor to your class” at those campaigning for Independents (and following those campaigning around)

    They have not all died off yet!!!!

    Class warfare is still alive and well – hence the response to the likes of Fox and Pratt engaging with ALP politicians by our “Independent always” media

    A better class of person and all that