Fair bit of polling doing the rounds this week, as is generally the case in the wake of a budget:
• The Age/Herald had further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on Tuesday, including ratings for the two leaders, which had 57% rating Anthony Albanese’s performance as very good or good compared with 28% for poor or very poor, with Peter Dutton respectively at 29% and 41%. The poll also found 40% supported allowing multi-employer bargaining, with 24% opposed; 26% supported mandatory multi-employer bargaining, with 32% opposed; and an even 29% favoured higher wages at the cost of higher prices and vice-versa.
• This fortnight’s Essential Research survey features the monthly prime ministerial ratings, which now involves directing respondents to give Anthony Albanese a rating from zero to ten. Forty-five per cent gave him between seven and ten, down one on last month; 28% gave him from four to six, down three; and 20% gave him zero to three, up three. Questions on the budget turned up one finding missed by the others: 45% said they had paid it little or no attention, around ten points up on the last three budgets, while 55% said a little or a lot, around ten points down. Fifty-two per cent expect economic conditions to worsen over the next twelve months, up twelve since June, while 24% expect them to improve, down eight. Respondents were asked to pick first and second most important contributors to energy price increases, which had excessive profits and efforts to fight climate change leading the field, international circumstances and a worn-out energy network somewhat lower, and too many restrictions on exploration well behind. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 1058.
• Roy Morgan’s regular weekly video has included primary votes from its latest federal poll, conducted from October 24 (the day before the budget) to October 30, rather than just two-party preferred as per its usual form. This shows Labor on 38.5% (down half on the previous week), the Coalition on 37% (up one-and-a-half), the Greens on 12% (up one), independents on 6% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (down one-and-a-half). Labor led 55.5-44.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54.5-45.5.
• The quarterly-or-so True Issues series from JWS Research is a “special release” on the budget, as opposed to its usual focus on issue salience. It finds 14% of respondents saying the budget would be good or very good for them personally compared with 36% for average and 31% for poor or very poor; for the national economic impact, the respective numbers were 20%, 38% and 25%. However, respondents provided highly positive responses when asked about fifteen specific budget measures, all but one of which attracted a favourable response – the distinct exception being “axing” the low-and-middle income tax offset. The most popular spending measures involved health and the least popular (relatively speaking) involved parental leave and childcare subsidies.
• The University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has results of a YouGov poll it commissioned encompassing 1000 respondents in each of Australia, the United States and Japan, conducted from September 5 to 9. It found 44% of Australians would support responding with force if China invaded Taiwan, compared with 33% of Americans; 36% of Australians felt the US alliance made Australia more secure, with 58% of Americans holding a reciprocal view, up from 44% in December; 52% of Australians felt China was “mostly harmful” in Asia, with 20% rating it “mostly helpful”; an interestingly even 28% and 31% felt the same way about the United States, in dramatic contrast to results of 7% and 52% among Japanese respondents; 36% approved of the federal government’s handling of the relationship with China, with 19% disapproving; 52% supported the nuclear submarines plan, with 19% opposed; and “one in two”. Thirty-six per cent of Australians felt it would be good for the country if Joe Biden won another term compared with 19% for bad, while 50% felt a return of Donald Trump would be bad compared with 26% for good.
• In a rare bit of interesting polling news from Western Australia, a Painted Dog Research poll for The West Australian finds Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 70%, up two from March, and a disapproval rating of 18%, down seven, suggesting a consistency of popularity beyond any Australian politician I could name. David Honey, leader of what remains of the state parliamentary Liberal Party, had an approval rating of just 9%, with 31% disapproving, 40% neutral and 19% oblivious. The poll also found stage three tax cuts supported by 53% and opposed by 32%. It was conducted from October 19 to 21 from a sample of 637.
BK thanks for the roundup.
This article on the ABC about the systematic nature of far right church infiltration of the Liberal party is good. The fact they are doing this is nothing new. The article details how, including the targeting of pre-selections.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-07/religious-right-roadmap-infiltrate-liberal-party/101611840
Blessed are the branch-stackers
for they shall steal the earth.
Ohio opinion poll
https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/columbus/news/2022/10/24/dewine-voters-crossing-the-aisle-in-senate-race
20% Dewine voters will vote for Democrat for Senate.
@cronus (and also Socrates re: White)
“ I’m not yet half way through the Hugh White video (listening during my exercise) and nothing significantly controversial thus far. I note however the difficulties faced by strategists/commentators/historians when in even the five months since this talk, events occur.
In this case I’m referring to his comments (correct imo) regarding the importance of economic strength as a determinant. The Chinese response to covid has significantly undermined their economic momentum (GDP) and in addition to their long term demographic challenges may prove problematic into the future. The drought and energy problems although short-term in the grand scheme of things may also slow Xi’s progress somewhat.
Enjoying the video and looking forward to the second half.”
_________
I am yet to watch this video, but hope to this afternoon after I complete some court submissions.
However, there is one point I want to focus on in your response above, Cronus: namely the assumption that I’ve seen repeated in a number of different – usually anti-chicomm – sources – that because China faces demographic problems as a generational legacy of the one child policy, China’s economy might end up a basket case and will never exceed the size of America’s.
This assumption seems to be sorely misplaced IMO. For two fundamental reasons which the proponents of such theories gloss over or simply ignore.
Firstly, whilst China’s overall population is now fairly stable at around 1.45 billion and there is in fact an ageing bubble, the urban population is not static. It is in fact still growing rapidly. that is because, right now ‘only’ 60% of the gen.pop. Is urban. That will grow to 80% – just like with every industrialised country & probably within 20 years (although due to the various cyclical growing pains we are now seeing, and Xi’s heavy ‘command and control’ hand, that might take another 10 years to complete).
Moreover, whilst the one child policy was largely implemented in urban areas, it was less successful in rural areas. Of the 300 odd million that will ‘pack up and move to town’ over that 20-30 year period, the vast majority are under 30 NOW and it is not just ‘one child’ (per family) that is coming to town. By itself, that domestic migration will largely backfill any labour shortages because of the ‘one child’ legacy.
Secondly, China’s economic expansion has largely been manufacturing based. Like all manufacturing based economies the great disrupter of automation will mean that it will be able to produce more (productive output) with less (labour).
Because of both of these factors, having an ageing population is now great disadvantage to continued Chinese economic growth, because retiring manufacturing workers over the next 30 years are likely to be replaced by either a robot or a newly arrived domestic migrant. that is not to say that China doesnt face huge economic challenges, especially because of the long term effects of Xi-ism, put if history is any guide, even Xi-ism is likely to turn out to be a cyclical bump in the road, rather than a structural catastrophe that the anti Chicomm scribblers in the west are wish-casting for.
Andrew earlwood 11.25
Further to your comments on China, another factor that means it will not be so “all or nothing” is the variation from province to province. The problems are a lot worse than some of the more backward western provinces than coastal ones.
Overall, as many economists have forecast for a long time, China’s growth rate will drop back closer to western levels. But that does not mean zero. And their population ageing is still not as bad as has already occurred in many northern European countries that remain highly productive.
Having said that, some of the western provinces that have lost a lot of young people could really struggle in coming decades if they do not reverse policy. There is not a big stream of external immigrants like many western countries to make up the shortfall.
Whole thing should be scrapped.
Josh Taylor, The Guardian:
https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1589379887055646720
Crown Melbourne has been fined $120 million by the gambling regulator over breaches of its responsible service obligations.
The Victorian Gambling and Casino Control Commission [VGCCC] imposed the fines after it found the casino failed to prevent gambling harm by allowing customers to gamble for long periods without a break.
The VGCCC said customers were sometimes allowed to gamble for more than 24 hours at a time.
It also found the casino failed to comply with a statutory declaration to stop patrons using plastic picks and other devices to simulate “automatic play” on pokie machines. VGCCC chairperson Fran Thorn said Crown failed in its “legal and moral obligation” to minimise gambling-related harm to its patrons.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-07/crown-casino-fined-for-breaching-gambling-harm-rules/101623450
Back from the GP. All good. 🙂 Regarding my post earlier about a German gov Twitter alternative, this is where I saw it reported.
https://mstdn.science/@corneliusroemer/109298270704374835
Thoughts to follow.
Boerwar says:
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 10:07 am
Cronus
But they never say no to a shit sandwich promotion.
What is interesting is the degree to which the Wagner Group and its owner are setting up an army within and army. I assume that Putin will let this go until he has enough military oomph along most of the front… and then there will be another of those mysterious defenestrations that dog high profile Russians.
———————————————————————————————-
I’ve never yet met an army officer who has knocked back a promotion, it’s simply not in their nature. They’re full of self-confidence (which is useful in their line of work) and convinced that their predecessor was an idiot. It’s the nature of the beast.
The Wagner Group not only provide Putin with a ‘professional, willing and experienced’ (I use those terms loosely) fighting force but also with an excuse should things go belly-up. I think mercenaries (I say this objectively as I don’t agree with the concept) are successful and unsuccessful in equal amounts (they’re certainly better than inexperienced and unwilling conscripts) but I think they detract from the moral argument of the side that uses them and are inevitably difficult to control (if that’s even an issue). America’s use of Blackwater in Afghanistan is an example.
Also, they don’t play well in the sandpit with the rest of an army. They care little for command and control and treat those on the same side with disdain and contempt.
I thought this was a crime ? Wtf’s wrong with Dreyfus ???
Griff @ #1001 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 11:16 am
Also, latest reporting that many Long Covid sufferers need to be put on long term anticoagulant therapy. 🙁
Looks like Covid isn’t slowing Rex Douglas down. 😉
You get a chance to nail a scammer like Morrison and you produce a warm lettuce leaf. Hopeless.
So many interesting videos to view at the moment, it’s hard to keep up.
We have some Australian friends (Coalition voters) visiting Oklahoma at the moment so it will be interesting to hear their perspective of the mid-terms in a month’s time when they return. We emailed them that we’d just bought a Tesla and they replied asking “is it all-electric”? Seriously!
I thought this was a crime ? Wtf’s wrong with Dreyfus ???
There’s a certain degree of deference shown to former Prime Ministers, Rex Douglas. Whether you approve or not. Hence the Cease and Desist letter as the first course of action. Morrison is now warned. Any subsequent action will be viewed very dimly.
The lengthy consultation with my GP this morning (thank you Medicare) covered a lot of ground, but a comment she made on covid was interesting. “We still occasionally see patients who haven’t had covid.” Not having had covid, I was an outlier. That surprised me. Thinking about it, GP’s see sick people. But she didn’t say “with covid”, she said “had covid”, in the past, who have recovered. Do GPs see a representative sample of the population? She also recommended waiting on a 5th dose of covid vaccine. Hmm.
Socrates says:
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 11:18 am
BK thanks for the roundup.
This article on the ABC about the systematic nature of far right church infiltration of the Liberal party is good. The fact they are doing this is nothing new. The article details how, including the targeting of pre-selections.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-07/religious-right-roadmap-infiltrate-liberal-party/101611840
Blessed are the branch-stackers
for they shall steal the earth.
———————————————————————————————
Not so big on the separation of church and state after all.
Labor were better when they had a spine…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXRvhwrIpGg
Cronus @ #1017 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 12:00 pm
The Christian Nationalist Repugs in America are making it plain that there is no separation anymore.
Rex Douglas,
You are truly clueless sometimes. Playing a Keating video of some of his trademark snark proves nothing when it comes to legal matters. Especially involving former Prime Ministers.
No doubt you will ignore that and spend the rest of the day pretending that YOUR reality is the only one.
Dutton could do with a bit of this from Labor…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iF6teQSxtw
Andrew_Earlwood
Worthwhile points and I neglected to mention (not having yet finished watching) that in the part I have seen, White agrees with you. I see age demographics as important but not yet critical but I think it’s the unknown unknowns that a likely most problematic.
Perhaps they’ll be able to pick up economically and from a manufacturing perspective immediately where they left off post their covid lockdowns or perhaps not. Potentially the virus will cause significant interruptions because it will escape their attempts and start killing significant numbers once restrictions are lifted which will also have unknown ramifications. Many companies have left China and the impact of this will also be of interest. Their property market is a disaster and will also have significant economic and social ramifications for those millions who have lost savings.
I’m looking forward to hearing the rest of the video.
Rex
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 12:03 pm
Labor were better when they had a spine…
Would you prefer the spines of the multi-ministerial, non transparent, leaker and liar from the shire, dodgy homeboi Dutto or perhaps artful Angus, the water rights dealer and wheeler?
Get real!
The world’s social media platforms are concentrated in and controlled by a small number of states, USA and China. How do we feel about the misinformation and disinformation that can be spread by “foreign actors” using these tools? How do we feel about the vulnerability or fragility of these tools who have all our eggs in their single basket? That’s where federated platforms fit. It’s taken me a full week to get comfortable with Mastodon, and there’s more to learn, but I can see its advantage over a platform like Twitter or FB. Federated platforms give you a local presence, support, and management but you’re still part of the global system. And instances police each other, so any instances that become obnoxious find themselves disconnected.
I’ve often wondered why Australia Post, or some other Australian entity, doesn’t have a social media platform for Australians. But having a whole bunch of federated instances is even better. So, in that context, and with the inventor / developer of Mastodon being German, the German gov starting a German instance isn’t surprising. People enrolled and posting there are already appearing on the local Aussie instance where I enrolled. (There’s a surprising amount related to Ukraine, in English and German.)
Pollbludger could be thought of as a social media single instance, currently disconnected from the wider federation, and could no doubt be run from one. 😉
Meanwhile on the “bird site”:
(posted on Mastodon by emptywheel)
1. China’s population stats are dodgy. The chicommies have been updating public announcements. Downwards.
2. The one child policy not only resulted in a gross decline in the birth rate compared to what otherwise might have been expected, it gendered the decline. Something like 30 million female fetuses were aborted. Not only that but the one child policy delivered a generation of princesses.
3. Feeding into that, China now has the highest proportion of well-educated women on good incomes than in its entire history. One issue is that women want to marry up not down. There are several consequences. Women are marrying later. Women are having fewer children. There are various estimates but one is that around 7-10 million women are bailing up. (There does not seem to be a cultural place which says that single motherhood is fine.) This might lead to a later wave of births. But currently there are about 40 million women absent from giving birth. The marriage strike is feeding directly into China’s property crisis: when people get married they tend buy a flat.
4. China has just seen the biggest mass movement of people in world history: people moving from rural to urban areas. This will assist another large productivity reform agenda: expediting the lot sizes of farms enabling more automation. The move from rural to urban will depend on the urban economy continuing to grow jobs.
5. Around 100-150 million chinese will have to shift as sea-level rise increases. Xi has just authorized the mining of another 300 million tons of coal.
6. The move from country to urban help create the demand for the property boom. Stats are hard to come by but: 65 million units are empty; around 100 cities have seen demonstrations by out-of-pocket unit investors; maybe around a third of trillion US dollars is subject to mortgage strikes; a growing number of senior entrepreneurs are bailing. The chicommies are trying to engineer a soft landing for 15-30% of the economy.
7. Stats are subject but the youth unemployment rate is around 20%.
8. The Chicommies will try to turn China into a service/consumption economy. They may succeed. They may fail.
9. China has shown an ability to address some environmental issues. Tree planting to stop desert creep is an example. Cleaner air in the urbs is another. However it has not even begun to address the horrendous state of its fresh water.
10. The days of free and easy world trade seem to be coming to an end. This will not favour China’s economy.
The above is a bit of a gish gallop. There is no doubt that China’s demographic situation is terrible. Whether demography is destiny or whether and how demography feeds into all the other important variables remains to be seen.
I forgot to mention that Zeihan, for one, predicts that China’s population will fall by around 600 million by the end of the century. Whatever the truth of that, one of the issues is that a smaller number of young workers are going to have to carry an increasingly large proportion of senior cits.
Labor gifts $1.5B to this hush hush fossil fuel project…
C@t, further to your comment that Morrison has been warned, I would add that he has been warned publically.
Cronus at 12:00 pm
Such ‘take overs’ may have an up side. They were making headlines here in The Cave since about 2016 and……………………
2013 WA Legislative Assembly 2PP Liberal -57.29%
2017 WA Legislative Assembly 2PP Liberal- 44.5%
2021 WA Legislative Assembly 2PP Liberal -30.32%
Cronus
“Not so big on the separation of church and state after all.”
Only at tax time.
Late Riser @ #1021 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 11:24 am
But, but…free speech! 😆
“ Australian households and businesses are set to speed up the transition to renewables as energy prices soar and payback periods for solar and batteries shorten. Solar companies have reported a spike in inquiries, some by as much as 750 per cent, since the October 25 federal budget revealed electricity would jump 56 per cent and gas by 44 per cent over the next couple of years.”
Credlin is going to be apoplectic, so many stupid Australians (chuckling uproariously). She just doesn’t get it, the higher her ff buddies raise their prices, the quicker Australians turn to renewables, simples.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-07/solar-boom-accelerates-as-energy-prices-soar/101611880
I find cultural Chinese much more engaging with their elder folk and accepting of the fact that their task is to care for them. I find cultural anglo australians are less accepting of this fact. Massive generalisations in my comments of course. But just an observation albeit from limited data sources which I totally accept.
poroti says:
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 12:29 pm
Cronus at 12:00 pm
Such ‘take overs’ may have an up side. They were making headlines here in The Cave since about 2016 and……………………
2013 WA Legislative Assembly 2PP Liberal -57.29%
2017 WA Legislative Assembly 2PP Liberal- 44.5%
2021 WA Legislative Assembly 2PP Liberal -30.32%
——————————————————————————————
Now that’s a trend if ever I’ve seen one. I wonder if the state branches nationally are noticing the distinct lack of success of these attempted religious takeovers in an increasingly secular society?
wranslide says:
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 12:37 pm
I find cultural Chinese much more engaging with their elder folk and accepting of the fact that their task is to care for them. I find cultural anglo australians are less accepting of this fact. Massive generalisations in my comments of course. But just an observation albeit from limited data sources which I totally accept.
———————————————————————————————-
I had thought the same. I wonder though, is it truly cultural or is it because they can’t afford aged care or do they not have aged care because they genuinely wish to look after their elders regardless until death?
I’d be very interested to know (I assumed the same across numerous Asian cultures) having seen a couple of tv programs that had shown this assumption to be breaking down somewhat, due mainly to economics as I understand it and smaller families all needing to work so not having time to devote to elders.
a rsays:
Monday, November 7, 2022 at 12:31 pm
Verballing is not an example of free speech.
Cronus
Credlin is a dinosaur nowadays.
Rather than relying too heavily on the the poll musings of pro Democrat podcasters and DNC operatives for US midterm election day forecasting – how about checking the weather forecast? Snow in Nevada. If there is enough snow it will dampen election day turnout where early voting is slightly favouring the Democrats.
“ The above is a bit of a gish gallop. There is no doubt that China’s demographic situation is terrible. ”
Lols. Most of the things you talk about are cyclical and/or regionally structural (as Cronus points out). Their overall demographic situation is far from terrible. If you want ‘terrible’, just look at sub Saharan Africa. When I visited Ethiopia in 2017 the population was 99 million. Now it is well past 120 million. It is actually doing better than most other comparable African countries, civil wars / political corruption notwithstanding. Now that’s terrible.
The simple fact is that China hasnt seen (past tense) the biggest mass movement of people in world history: the migration from rural to urban china is still underway. Another 300 million people to go: most of whom are under 30, and have not been as affected in terms of birth rates and ‘gender genocide’ as their urban counterparts.
Bumps in the road notwithstanding (and there admittedly are a heap of them) the fundamental drivers remain. Unless Xi goes full cultural revolution and completely fucks up, these drivers will see the economy double, if not triple in the next 20 years.
If Xi pulls his head in and many of the economic challenges are actually addressed (and it is not too late for that to occur, by any means), then the economy will still likely double in the next 10-12 years. And double again by 2050. Even allowing the enivatble slowing growth phase as the great domestic migration comes to completion and China reaches full developed economy status.
Attitude to the aged is probably undergoing something of a transition for a number of reasons:
1. Shift from large peasant families to small urban families.
2. Wealth shift.
3. Change in the role and expectations of women.
4. Change in the proportion of old people to young people.
5. Shifting attitudes to the role of the state.
My grandparents expected to stay home and for the home to have adult caring children in it and for the grandparents to leave the home in a coffin. The chief carers were women who were not in employment outside the home. The latter cohort has almost entirely disappeared.
Somyurek and Bernie Finn heading up the Vic DLP.
What a joke.
Thinking about “free speech”
https://eupolicy.social/@akhmxt/109297657225235261
Also, re Mr Musk’s parody ban, I can imagine a host of accounts will appear with names like “Parody Boy”, “Parody Musk”, “Thin Skin Musk”. Mr Musk doesn’t get it. He doesn’t understand what he’s bought, and Twitter will be forever altered. How he keeps the advertisers on board while he does that will be interesting to watch.
Another trend I’m seeing is cross-posting apps. They can post your words on more than one platform. And people are working out how to reconnect on the different platforms. If the apps become popular and reconnecting becomes easier, then the barrier to leaving Twitter will reduce. Twitter will have to offer something unique to counter that. Interesting times.
Sure it is. It’s not illegal. And it’s not something Mr. “Free Speech Absolutist” ever indicated a problem with.
He was all for letting the trolls troll and the shitposters post their shit, and having faith that the accurate and truthful users would just sort of solve the problem on their own. Right up until he started ending up on the receiving end.
Furthermore there’s solid US legal precedent establishing that parody need not be labelled as such to be protected as free speech.
Boerwar @ Monday, November 7, 2022 at 7:52 am:
“ If USA policy makers believe that a negotiated settlement is inevitable then the next step is for them to make a national interest decision on the optimum timing. What has the USA got to gain from extending the war indefinitely? What might happen if Putin succeeds in using Autumn mud and Spring thaw to train and arm his conscripts? What happens if the Kharkiv Counter Offensive runs out of puff and the Dnipro Line, with its contested crossings, proves too expensive in men for Ukraine? What happens is the balance in the House and the Senate swerves to the GOP?”
======================================================
Thanks, Boerwar. Exactly these four questions you put have been keeping me up at night. All have premises which are extremely uncertain, and so have answers which are by no means likely to be helpful to Ukraine.
I hope US thinking is going like this:
1. Governments in EU/NATO are facing electorates tiring of experiencing hardship in the cause of helping Ukraine resist and then expel Russian military force;
2. Ukraine needs such support to continue resisting;
3. EU/NATO electorates will be more likely to maintain support for Ukraine if it Russia who they see as the roadblock to peace;
4. Ukraine has nothing to lose by proposing peace on such terms of mutual withdrawal of forces on both sides to behind UN recognised international borders. This is a very difficult proposition to paint as inherently unreasonable.
5. Ukraine might be persuaded to relinquish pursuit of war crime / genocide actions, as an offer to persuade Putin to cut his losses and accept this.
6. Russian rejection of such terms would demonstrate clearly who is dragging this war on, thus helping set information conditions to restore Western support for Ukraine.
Andrew_Earlwood
“ If Xi pulls his head in and many of the economic challenges are actually addressed (and it is not too late for that to occur, by any means), then the economy will still likely double in the next 10-12 years. And double again by 2050. Even allowing the enivatble slowing growth phase as the great domestic migration comes to completion and China reaches full developed economy status.”
———————————————————————————————-
IMO Xi is China’s biggest unknown. He seems happy to eskew all other issues in preference to seeking absolute control.
Notwithstanding the importance of China’s economic situation, he appears happy to suborn it to his clear priority of absolute control, not understanding or caring that he needs multiple elements (social, political, military, technology, manufacturing, economic etc) together to both achieve and maintain this. I’ve no doubt he can control the party, I’m less sure he can successfully control, grow and guide the nation.
Feeling very apprehensive about the likely outcome of the US mid terms, the prospect of the US being immobilised by political gridlock for at least 2 years and the global consequences of that. The only upside is that I can clear my podcast feed of the US politics related stuff that I no longer want to listen to and listen to more edifying stuff instead!
https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/KiOCSD0S
What did team Djokovic slip into his drink …?
Looks pretty dodgy …?
Anticipating good news from the US midterms.
Pollsters have all drastically changed their methodologies – they dress it up with a veneer of statistics but basically it amounts to “just chuck a R bias into the results because the polls have skewed D recently”.
Poll aggregators have put a second R bias onto it in their aggregation of polls, to compensate for this imagined D bias.
You can check the extent of this second bias on 538, by changing to the lite model, which fixes the 538 model by undoing their “but the democrats are going to do bad because it’s a midterm and polls overestimate democrats” fudge, but you can never find out the magnitude of the first bias.
Democrats and incumbents generally do poorly in midterms because they fail to turnout their base. But we know, from early and postal voting that turnout will be high.
We have seen, from recent special elections, that Democrats are performing well.
For the senate, I’m predicting 52 Democrats (i.e. 50 real democrats and 2 traitors).
I’m predicting no significant net loss of seats in the House for Democrats – maybe 1 to 3 seats lost net.
max @ #1045 Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 1:33 pm
Got to get past the anxiety of it all. No choice, just roll with the punches as best you can.
Xi started with a bang with the belt and road initiative. Western involvement has been crimped due to the last two successive White House administrations, and I think as a consequence Xi has lost his shit a little bit. Not a good sign in someone approaching 70 and having successfully centralised all power to himself domestically. Getting Xi to lose his shit seems to be the overarching ‘game theory’ of the Americans.
So, it is possible that he could single-handedly fuck this all up. On the other hand, China survived the cultural revolution and the fallout from the Tiananmen square massacres. So, I think the odds still favour ChiComm China surviving Xi.
Dreyfus has one rule for McBride, another for Morrison.