Six weeks into the job, Liz Truss announced yesterday that she would resign as Britain’s Prime Minister. Whereas the process that resulted in Truss succeeding Boris Johnson ran from July to September, through the party’s usual process where the members of parliament winnow it down to a field of two who then face a ballot of the party membership, this time the matter will be determined within a week. The principles of the election will be broadly similar to before, but the narrowing down process will apparently be “accelerated” and the membership vote conducted online. Betfair’s highly fluid betting odds suggest the following clear front-runners (odds shown below at time of writing), followed by a long tail of dark horses:
Rishi Sunak ($1.94). Former Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current back-bencher, Sunak was the favoured candidate of the parliamentary contingent to succeed Johnson, Sunak was voted down in favour of Truss by a party membership that was displeased by his role in bringing down Johnson and unconvinced by his argument that the unfunded tax cuts advocated by Truss would not go down well with markets. Only later did it become apparent that, as our very own Peta Credlin put it in The Australian yesterday, the markets were “driven by woke hedge-fund managers who have never forgiven the Tories for engineering Brexit”.
Penny Morduant ($5). Morduant was an early front-runner during the previous leadership process, but finished third in a tight race in the final ballot of the parliamentary membership. She served as Defence Secretary under Teresa May but was dumped when Johnson became Prime Minister in July 2019, before returning to junior ministry positions the following February. Mordaunt won favour among the party membership as a long-standing Euroskeptic, but lost some of it for her progressive positions on transgender issues.
Boris Johnson ($5.90). The Times political editor Steven Swinford reports Johnson is “expected to stand”.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the UK situation. The general discussion thread continues here:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/10/18/essential-research-albanese-approval-and-tax-cuts-open-thread/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q31WY0Aobro
New Tory Rules to keep the dark horse, Another Fiasco, hemmed in along the rails:
“The leadership contest is clearly geared towards narrowing the field as quickly as possible.
With a threshold of 100 nominations, a maximum of three candidates can stand.
It also looks like the rules have been drawn up in the hope of MPs picking a winner without needing a final vote among party members.
Even if two remain to go head to head among members, there’ll be an “indicative vote“ among MPs, so the Tory grassroots will be in no doubt about the parliamentary party’s preferred leader in waiting.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-63309400
If the Tories were honest, they would admit they’ve buggered it big time and vote Larry.
For Ven’s Mug Collection
‘Anyone hoping to snap up one of the £14.99 Liz Truss mugs branded with “In Liz We Truss” from the Tory party’s official shop will be disappointed. They’ve been withdrawn in the wake of the prime minister’s resignation.
Potential investors going to the web page of the Conservative party shop which once hosted the items are greeted with a “404” message and an “Opps! Have no idea what just happened”.’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/oct/20/uk-politics-live-liz-truss-tories-turmoil-suella-braverman-resigns-fracking
An understatement from the continent:
‘It is hard for any of us to resist saying “I told you so”, and Michel Barnier, the former EU Brexit negotiator, is no exception. He posted this message on Twitter this morning. It came before Liz Truss announced her resignation, but the point applies all the same.
Michel Barnier
@MichelBarnier
No one should or can be happy about the political & economic turmoil in the UK. There are so many reasons today we must find stability and cooperate, across Europe. Not all of these difficulties are due to Brexit, I am simply convinced that Brexit makes everything more difficult.’
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
Labour leads by 36%.
Joint-largest lead for ANY party with ANY polling company since Oct. 1997.
Westminster VI (19 Oct.):
Labour 55% (-1)
Conservative 19% (-1)
Lib Dems 12% (+1)
Green 4% (-1)
SNP 4% (–)
Reform 4% (+2)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 16 Oct
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 53% (+4)
CON: 22% (-3)
LDM: 11% (=)
GRN: 5% (-1)
SNP: 4% (=)
Via @techneUK
19-20 Oct, Changes w/ 12-13 Oct
2 other polls today, for brevity:-
SavantaComRes has Labour 30% ahead, 52-22
Survation has Labour 29% ahead, 52-23
Whoever they elect as leader, they won’t go to an early general election, that’s for sure.
They will drag the process on to the very end with the new leader (and a couple more into the future if needed), hoping for a comeback in the polls.
In the meantime, the media will hammer Starmer and try to spread division within Labour (as per script).
Is there a “Sunak racial issue” among the party membership?
Dr D: ‘£14.99 Liz Truss mugs branded with “In Liz We Truss” …’
Hope the Victoria & Albert Museum acquired one for posterity.
Ray (UK), quoting Redfield & Wilton Strategies:
“Labour leads by 36%. Joint-largest lead for ANY party with ANY polling company since Oct. 1997.”
Charlie served an apprentice in our 1975 Dismissal.
Time now to exercise his royal prerogative?
so hunt would be obvious pick but looks like they will go for johnson he uis damaged all ready so its looking like a care starmer land slide only problim is no one seems to like him much johnson bacckers were prodicting this acording to a news report most of his backers e.g. jackob rese mog etc backed trus in the hope she would fail quickly making a johnson come back posible steve baker the brecksit mp admited brecksity was all ways going to be a disaster but the tories persued as ideology over comon sence
it turns out cameron was right when he warned brecksit would be a diaster the only problim was he caved in to the hard right to hold the referendum and johnson only backed brecksity so he could become pm johnson stands for nothing
it turns out cameron was right when he warned brecksit would be a diaster the only problim was he caved in to the hard right to hold the referendum and johnson only backed brecksity so he could become pm johnson stands for nothing dont think the media will be able to sucesfuly damage astarmer new corp tried the same tacdicks hear and it failed eventualy
”
Dr Doolittlesays:
Friday, October 21, 2022 at 4:49 am
For Ven’s Mug Collection
‘Anyone hoping to snap up one of the £14.99 Liz Truss mugs branded with “In Liz We Truss” from the Tory party’s official shop will be disappointed. They’ve been withdrawn in the wake of the prime minister’s resignation.
Potential investors going to the web page of the Conservative party shop which once hosted the items are greeted with a “404” message and an “Opps! Have no idea what just happened”.’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/oct/20/uk-politics-live-liz-truss-tories-turmoil-suella-braverman-resigns-fracking
”
Dr. D
Now Tories can sell mugs with inscription “In Liz we don’t Truss “. 🙂
They may sell like hot cakes. 🙂
”
Dr Doolittlesays:
Friday, October 21, 2022 at 4:42 am
New Tory Rules to keep the dark horse, Another Fiasco, hemmed in along the rails:
“The leadership contest is clearly geared towards narrowing the field as quickly as possible.
With a threshold of 100 nominations, a maximum of three candidates can stand.
It also looks like the rules have been drawn up in the hope of MPs picking a winner without needing a final vote among party members.
Even if two remain to go head to head among members, there’ll be an “indicative vote“ among MPs, so the Tory grassroots will be in no doubt about the parliamentary party’s preferred leader in waiting.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-63309400
If the Tories were honest, they would admit they’ve buggered it big time and vote Larry.
”
Dr. D
Extraordinary to say the least. It appears Tory HQ wants to allow membership voting via online.
“Mother of Parliaments” , my foot.
Markets, in which Tories around the world have complete faith in till they don’t, are now run by woke people (WB: our very own Peta Credlin put it in The Australian yesterday, the markets were “driven by woke hedge-fund managers who have never forgiven the Tories for engineering Brexit”). 🙂
Obviously, there is only one outstanding candidate: “ Johnson was said by MPs to be considering another tilt at the job,”. (The Guardian).
Ah! England: Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad.
Perhaps the lettuce will nominate?
Has proven longevity and green credentials.
”
Rakalisays:
Friday, October 21, 2022 at 8:33 am
Obviously, there is only one outstanding candidate: “ Johnson was said by MPs to be considering another tilt at the job,”. (The Guardian).
Ah! England: Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad.
”
Does UK remind you of Ancient Rome just before its complete collapse? But USA politicians consider themselves as true heirs of Rome and they may be on to something.
One Scottish poster said “it’s like living above a meth lab!” 🙂
Upnorth – Latey accused of Witchcraft, Heresy and Cartel like behaviour says:
Friday, October 21, 2022 at 10:20 am
Ray (UK) says:
Friday, October 21, 2022 at 5:44 am
2 other polls today, for brevity:-
SavantaComRes has Labour 30% ahead, 52-22
Survation has Labour 29% ahead, 52-23
中华人民共和国
How’s the popcorn supply in the UK Ray? Must be getting low now.
Liz Truss leapt in to make the biggest impact in the shortest time. We’d have to give her full credit for achieving that.
Luigi Smith says:
Friday, October 21, 2022 at 10:33 am
“Liz Truss leapt in to make the biggest impact in the shortest time. We’d have to give her full credit for achieving that”
Like cowsh!t hitting a fan.
Gold medal performance for political self immolation certainly goes to Truss.
I think the Queen foresaw something and choose to croak after appointing Truss. Could you imagine if that had happen during the market chaos that Truss and co caused?
Sunak will get praised to begin with and there will excitement about the first (or maybe second) non-white PM but fairly quickly it will become evident that he is just a toff in toffee skin.
I say maybe second because Robert Jenkinson, 2nd Earl of Liverpool who was PM in between 1812 and 1827 was probably a 1/16 Indian.
I’ve long said Rishi Sunak has the best odds of knocking off Sir Keir Starmer, but the Truss experiment may have made even him a long shot to stop the Blair like coronation of Starmer! In terms of the race card, I think that’s a part of it, certainly hard right tories have a problem with outsiders having success but the real problem for Sunak is he took out Johnson which amongst the hard right MPs and members is unforgivable.
I find it interesting that a lot of commentators think that the result in 2019 was a major endorsement of the Johnson agenda of a hard Brexit. They did win a big majority winning in the so called Red wall seats. But the truth is something both Tories and a big chunk of Labour deny; Corbyn was able to be portraited as being an 80s era hard leftist (whether his policies were or not this is how he ended up coming across) and this was simply not acceptable to the majority of the electorate and that is why the Labour vote cratered .
I’d agree with that assessment more if it weren’t for Jeremy Corbyn nearly knocking off Theresa May. 2019 was the Brexit election and Boris Johnson should get credit for his ability to brand the 2019 election as such
Is it time for a Pollbludger “Worst UK PMs (has to be plural!) ever” discussion?
My candidates include Neville ‘Peace for Our Time’ Chamberlain, Anthony Eden (architect of the Suez Crisis), David Cameron (who gave the Right the Brexit referendum, then prosecuted a hopeless Remain campaign) and Truss.
That’s just from the past century…
India should colonise Britain: Comedian Trevor Noah’s old video goes viral amid UK crisis
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/india-should-colonise-britain-comedian-trevor-noah-old-video-viral-uk-crisis-2287951-2022-10-21
I hope Mordaunt gets the job.
There’s no way I’d vote for her to run my country, but if it’s a puny island nation a couple of oceans away, we might as well have something easy on the eye to look at while we watch it going down the s-bend.
The Prime Minister will be chosen by the Tory membership between the final two chosen by the Parliamentary party. There’s no guarantee that there judgement will be any better this time.
If go down the BoJo again I can’t see them keeping their majority. The party will literally spilt and the anti-Johnson branch will be large enough to vote down the government on issues. Then he will be in exactly the same position that Truss was in – in Office but not in power.
Plus who is going to serve under him – All of those people who quit last time are probably not going to come back.
But then again, they are Tories have gone off the deep end like the GOP. But have not brought the public with them.
Tories’ existential conundrum:
Johnson?
Sunak?
Early general election?
Try mass suicide instead and solve all your problems!
“Steve777 says:
Saturday, October 22, 2022 at 9:42 am
The Prime Minister will be chosen by the Tory membership between the final two chosen by the Parliamentary party. There’s no guarantee that there judgement will be any better this time.”
They will just choose the white guy.
“Chris Gaskin says:
Friday, October 21, 2022 at 2:52 pm
I’d agree with that assessment more if it weren’t for Jeremy Corbyn nearly knocking off Theresa May. 2019 was the Brexit election and Boris Johnson should get credit for his ability to brand the 2019 election as such”
Without the help of friendly media, no branding works…. Just ask Jeremy Corbyn.
The question is: Has the situation in the UK deteriorated to such an extent that no media-rebranding will work for the Tories, thus leading them to lose the next general election even if Jack the Stripper leads the Labour party?
Has real-life disaster finally de-moronised the majority of the voters, just as it did in Australia in 2022?
…. Time will tell….
The next UK PM will be chosen by the types of people who feature in Midsomer Murders.
Actually, upon sober reflection, I’m now thinking Mordaunt is, in fact, a shoo-in.
Sunak will win the MP’s vote – again – but lose the party vote -again. There just aren’t enough party members with a strong enough grip on sanity for him to have a chance.
As for Johnson, they may be insane but they can’t be that insane, surely?
This has all made things in Northern Ireland complex.
The assembly elected in May has not met because the DUP has withdrawn until the Brexit protocol is abolished. Truss was going to do this unilaterally and presumably start a trade war with the EU. that has not happened and without effective leadership to resolve the problem the assembly will dissolve next week with fresh elections (probably wit the same result) in December
Some are seeing this as the end of the Good Friday agreements and Sinn Féin will not support direct rule from Westminster but has called for joint Dublin/London administration
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/london-stormont-chris-heatonharris-sinn-fein-british-b1034493.html
Who would have thought that borrowing money to give tax cuts to high income earners such that the benefit could trickle down would cause such commotion, among the wider population (see polling) AND across Financial Markets (traditional supporters of Capital and “free” markets)?
Right wing ideology questioned?
Surely not.
Where is Monty Python when you need a sensible appraisal?
Surely it is only a flesh wound for the Conservative forces, globally?
They will put on their amour and mount the good trickle down fight again, citing their opponents as “naughty boys – and girls”
Back to the polo fields to lick their wounds and mount their trusty steeds.
Tory newspapers warn against the return of Boris Johnson
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/22/tory-newspapers-warn-against-the-return-of-boris-johnson
If Boris stand and wins then he’s still going to lose the next general election and like Trump he can never be seen as a loser.
And like Truss there will be a huge number of Tory MPs who wouldn’t have supported him and won’t feel much compunction to be loyal to him a second time.
The novelty of the process this time is there will be a final vote of Tory MPs before it goes to the membership as their “recommended” candidiate.
Should he win the only thing Boris will be able to do is only lose the party 100 seats rather than 200 at the general election. Even with the former the Tories are out of office and Boris simply does not have the patience to be the Leader of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition for 4-5 years. He is well known for not putting in the work on reading his briefs so he’s not aware of detailed issues – hence the resorting to jokes and insults when he doesn’t know the answer.
And all the lies and sleaze that surrounds him will just emerge again. And it’ll be the Tories doing it this time rather than Labour.
Many ordinary voters who had previously seen him as a lovely man only castigated for having “a bit of cake” have had their eyes opened to the sort of man he really is and are suffering buyers remorse.
There have already been some Tory MPs saying they would resign the Tory Whip in the Commons rather than suffer the indignity as they see it of having to serve under this buffoon.
Well most of boris johnsons suporteers seem to admit that his not good on poluicy and doesnt know what he is doing but he is a friendly [personalty he could allways be a shock jock sort of like trump and morrison we should elect leaders that can dorun the country not good sailes men wallace or hunt would be good options but tories should call an early election and give starmer a go
the graas roots will be behind johnson it does not matter what the pappers say
IMHO: Rishi Sunak will not become PM if the racist Tory membership get a vote
David Speers interviews former BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg and host of ‘Sunday with Laura Keunssberg’ about the leadership tussle within the Conservative Party following the departure of Liz Truss as Prime Minister.
https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NN2204V047S00
Peter Osbourne view of Liz Truss
https://youtu.be/YPqDp90f6-Y
Aaron newton at 9.52 am
Wallace has endorsed Johnson. As Clown Chaos, he is most likely to cause an election.
Johnson camp does not inspire confidence even among its supporters. E.g.:
@MrHarryCole
‘Spoken to other senior ministers who claim they have told Johnson camp they are with them but are refusing to go public until they are sure there’s not going to be a deal. Lack of trust even amongst supporters is not great…’
Anyone who thinks the Tories can win under Sunak or any other leader at the next election is outright delusional. They may close the gap, but the main question is how big of a Labour majority.
I could see Mordaunt in the unlikely event she is PM by 2024, she could close the gap enough that Labour only wins a bare majority like in 1964. Or maybe a minority. But the chances of the conservatives remaining the largest party are 0 bearing a complete catastrophe from Labour.
Labour won’t win over 400 seats. But I see the Tories being reduced to around 200 seats or less. So a reverse 2019 in terms of seats is on the cards when it narrows. Sunak could stay on as leader and argue he saved allot of furniture and the situation could have been much worse. Or if Mordaunt holds her seat (which is doubtful if Labour is winning a comfortable majority considering her seat has gone with government since 1966) She could become the first Tory leader of the opposition since 2010.
I’ll also note that it has been a couple of centuries since a party won 5 consecutive elections. And remaining in power for 19 years is EXTREMELY unlikely for any party (this would be even longer than the previous Tory government)
P.S I am a British immigrant in Australia so I feel qualified to comment on British politics. Our electorate is very unforgiving and support for any party can evaporate in a blink of an eye. Sunak is NO John Major.
Looks like Boris has 100 signatures and will run again. The Tories are mad.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-23/boris-johnson-will-run-for-uk-leadership-and-has-numbers/101567766
Kier Starmer must be crying tears of joy. If he is wise he will shut, sit back, and watch the farce play out. Never interrupt an enemy while he is making a mistake…
The latest from The Guardian:
Mordaunt refuses Johnson request to drop out of contest – reports
As reported at 3:38pm, PA Media is reporting a line briefed out that Boris Johnson asked Penny Mordaunt to drop out of the leadership race and to back him.
“Sources close to the Leader of the House of Commons” told the news agency that Mordaunt refused, warning that most of her support would switch to Rishi Sunak if she did.
Kevin Foster, the MP for Torbay, has become the latest Conservative MP to back Rishi Sunak.
He told his local paper, the Torbay Weekly:
‘In the face of the global economic headwinds we now face, of the three likely candidates, Rishi appears best placed to ensure families and businesses across our bay and nation are protected, whilst ensuring financial markets have confidence in our plans to do so. I also know he will ensure our support for Ukraine remains resolute.’
He pays tribute to Boris Johnson’s stance over Ukraine, Brexit, coronavirus and support for measures in his Torbay constituency. But adds
‘Yet I believe we now need a fresh leadership to deliver the promise of a better Britain our 2019 manifesto set out, rather than a return to the arguments of the first half of this year which brought Boris’ administration down in July.’
Rishi Sunak has surged ahead in the race to be Conservative leader while Boris Johnson is was mounting a last-ditch scramble to shore up support among MPs, amid warnings his return as prime minister would lead to a political crisis within a week.
As more senior party figures cautioned that a Johnson comeback would lead to chaos and an early election, Sunak won the support of 150 MPs – just shy of the number needed to keep all but one other rival candidate getting on the slate.
And another for Rishi Sunak:
Jerome Mayhew, MP for Broadland in Norfolk