Roy Morgan, Morning Consult and JSCEM (open thread)

A couple of polling scraps and the composition of the parliamentary committee that will shortly dive into the conduct of the May election.

Not a whole lot to report from within what this site regards as its wheelhouse, but past time for a new post nonetheless. Here’s what I’ve got:

• Roy Morgan continues to eke out polling information in an unpredictable fashion on its weekly update videos, the latest of which features a full set of voting intention numbers from polling conducted August 1 to 7. This has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing, apparently from a week previously, from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 37% (up one), Coalition 38.5% (up two-and-a-half), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3.5% (steady). They also had a second SMS poll of Victorian voting intention which I’ll cover in a state-specific poll later this week.

• US pollster Morning Consult’s tracking poll of global leaders’ domestic approval records little change in Anthony Albanese’s numbers – his approval rating of 58% is unchanged on a month ago and his disapproval is up three to 29%.

• The membership of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is now settled, with Labor’s Kate Thwaites as chair joined by party colleagues Karen Grogan, Shayne Neumann, Sam Rae and Marielle Smith; former chair James McGrath now deputy chair, joined by Coalition colleagues Darren Chester, Marise Payne and James Stevens; and Larissa Waters continuing to represent the Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,662 comments on “Roy Morgan, Morning Consult and JSCEM (open thread)”

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  1. Every Newspoll before the May election, Simon Benson would put the best spin on it for Scott Morrison and the readers of The Australian.

  2. “This year he is set to work alongside Mr McGirr when the firm defends NRL player Manase Fainu, who has pleaded not guilty to a stabbing in Western Sydney.”

    Presently in 2nd place on this one.

  4. So in summary the only evidence that we have that Scott Morrison didn’t use his powers while wearing various secret Ministers’ hats is the word of a known liar and fantasist.
    A judicial inquiry at the very least.

  5. Liz Cheney deserves the civlian equivalent of a Purple Heart for her courage in taking on Trump. I don’t think she’ll challenge him in the presidential primaries; she couldn’t be competitive, and moreover, if she were to stand as an independent, such would only advantage Trump. She’s done enough in the Jan, 6 hearings, her standing in history, her lasting testament. I rather liken her advocacy to Welch’s, who brought an end to the career of the repulsive dipso McCarthy:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svUyYzzv6VI

    Pepys.

  6. Hawke made one mistake

    After labelling Howard racist Hawke apologised and withdrew the description

    Howard is racist, always has been

    Racism wins elections in Australia

    And Howard fed off that, entrenching racism

    So why is Howard reported at this time as he is?

    On an issue which has racism at its core

    Then you get to Mat Guy, or whatever his name is

    The health system is under pressure in Victoria, as it is in all other States and Territories of Australia and, indeed, globally

    The reason being that we live in times of a Pandemic – and the presence of the virus also sees those employed in the health system absent from their place of work (no matter the protocols at hospitals and medical practices including testing before entry. I have first hand knowledge of these entry protocols from visiting a close friend, currently in hospital. You undergo a rapid test then wait 15 minutes before you can proceed past the front door)

    And that is before you get to increases admission numbers due to the Pandemic and it being winter

    The Pandemic is impacting across society – you don’t have to look far

    To use this fact for perceived party political advantage is beneath contempt and typical of Mat Guy

    In terms of the Morrison “government” which did play politics with the Pandemic, it has been reduced to a Queensland rump

  7. Boerwar at 6.28 pm, Cronus at 6.28 pm, Cat at 6.34 pm and Mavis at 6.52 pm

    B – do you remember the Rowe cartoon with Barnaby, Tip-Top McCormack, and Littleproud a year or so ago? Search under David Rowe + Chicken Little and up comes Mr Chicken Littlepround saying all is fine. Rowe fingered Littleproud as a lightweight. He’s one of the dynasty pollies who make few runs. Nothing like that nasty liar named Reith. Indeed, McCormack would have more bite as a naysayer.

    If Cronus is right and Dutton remains ambivalent as long as possible, or longer, that will help the Yes campaign, as Hanson will have pronounced the No memes and Dutton will be seen as aligning with her if he chooses No. This is a dynamic situation. I am impressed by Albo’s grasp of the tempo so far. Hopefully Pat Dodson will convince him that 27 May 2023 is the date, for reasons canvassed before.

    Don’t overestimate the influence of the small RW nutter groups. Hanson is around for 6 more years (and perhaps longer, as she will wish to emulate the GOP geriatrics in the US Congress) but her vote is going downhill, even in Qld. The Palmer rabble are a rent-a-crowd, or worse. The Shooters had their big win in the last NSW election, courtesy of Porky Barilaro’s incompetence. His replacement knows more about political campaigning (not pork-barrelling) than him, so Shooters may fizzle in March.

    In any case, Perrottet is committed to the Voice referendum, though Minns may be Premier in May. On 8 Aug the Dubbo paper reported a state minister saying Perrottet “genuinely” supports the Voice.

    Cat, one thing I share with Briefly is that I don’t have a TV, but I’m glad Albo visited the TS. Someone quite recently linked Ms Tingle’s Twitter feed, which had an Albo tweet from 15 Aug saying “On this day in 1975 Gough Whitlam gave back land to Vincent Lingiari. One hand was held out to another, and as the red earth flowed between them, it was a turning point – a unifying moment for our continent.” True words to accompany the photo by the remarkable Aboriginal photographer, Mervyn Bishop.

    Did any previous PM visit the TS? Did any previous Labor leader encapsulate any image so well?

  8. Mavis wrote, “Your argument falls flat when you refer to cat as “Crankmomma”, analogous to referring to you as Winston.”

    Crank is as Crank does! BTW, I could not care less what you call me.

  10. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/16/roy-morgan-morning-consult-and-jscem-open-thread/comment-page-32/#comment-3967728

    And all the GWOT successes for said RAR general (?) led to the Lodge/ GG … sounds like promote the useless ones away from where they can do only so much damage to do real damage.

    If not militia, Boer War to GWOT is quite the …

    Pretty sure new citizens swear to Australia and it’s people, pollyTICs or governors however?

    It seems common law for the have nots, and special privileges for the aspirationals/ courtiers/ acolytes/ haves/ merchant kings/ warlords is quite entrenched.

  11. Here we go again at 7.38 pm

    I presume you refer to Hawke’s response to the 1988 proposal by Howard for a racially discriminatory immigration policy. If so, Hawke’s apology may have been like Tanya Plibersek’s apology to Dutton.

    Why did J.W. Howard eventually change his racist immigration policy? According to his brother Bob, it was because he went to Singapore, and talked with the Tory leaders of that fine city (which has a fine for everything, so they say, but, beyond WA, it has won the Covid death prevention marathon).

    Of course, J.W. Howard remained a racist domestically. In the Kartinyeri (Hindmarsh Island bridge) case, his government argued that apartheid-style racial discrimination isn’t unconstitutional here.

  12. Dr D
    There was an excellent exhibition on Uncle Mervyn in the Sound and Film Archive. Inter alia, that pouring of the soil was a repeat after Mervyn told them that the inside shots had not worked.
    I think your posts on the Voice are on the money. The key is the leadership team of Albanese, Burney and Dodson. They seem to have shifted Bandt and Thorpe. The Sky After Dark Crew and the Oz will continue to Pivot off Price.

  13. VCT
    Your posts intrigue but the gaps require guesswork to fill. IMO Hurley was promoted by Morrison because he was incompetent.

  14. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/16/roy-morgan-morning-consult-and-jscem-open-thread/comment-page-33/#comment-3967772

    The Race Power (51xxvi) was originally put in the Constitution for reasons that definitely included making including racist laws and its extension to Aboriginal People in 1967 was removal of the exclusion from the original power, so it is not surprising that the Commonwealth argued it had the power to make racist laws and not surprising it won.

  15. Mavis at 7.35 pm and Steve777 at 8.51 and 9.04 am re Wyoming

    Covid deaths in Wyoming so far = 1,871 and in Tasmania 172. So, using Steve’s figures, that gives a per capita Covid death rate in Tasmania of 302 per million, and in Wyoming of 3,231, worse than almost all of Europe, except for Hungary, Romania and other eastern and central European countries. That is on official figures, which, according to health experts, may have missed another 500 or so deaths in Wyoming from the pandemic that occurred by the end of 2021. Southern US states are even worse.

    Whoever is the Democratic Presidential candidate in 2024 may hope that Mr Trump isn’t in gaol then.

  16. Conviction on mishandling classified documents does not require jailing to stop Trump. Conviction means an automatic exclusion from being eligible to run.

  17. The Age18/08
    The Solomon Islands has signed a $100 million deal with Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei to build more than 100 mobile phone towers, deepening its partnership with Beijing.
    _____________________
    Keep up the good work Wong.

  19. Taylormade @ #1465 Thursday, August 18th, 2022 – 8:29 pm

    The Age18/08
    The Solomon Islands has signed a $100 million deal with Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei to build more than 100 mobile phone towers, deepening its partnership with Beijing.
    _____________________
    Keep up the good work Wong.

    I see you’re not mentioning the alleged corruption of Manasseh Sogovare and members of his government, who seem to have been bought off very cheaply with chump change by the Chinese. But yeah, all Penny Wong’s fault. 🙄

  22. mckenzey is working hard to get rid off andrews buy using his so called investagive jernalist skills to attack victorias health system know his based in melberne was was not to concerned abbout ambalence ramping in sa under the liberals govermnet or the worst performing health system in the country the liberal government tasmania maybi we need a wider roil comition not just in to news corp but in to nine as well and hopefuly we can reverse the changes fifield rushed through to give costellow radio tv and print

  23. Boerwar @ #1616 Thursday, August 18th, 2022 – 11:26 am

    Conviction on mishandling classified documents does not require jailing to stop Trump. Conviction means an automatic exclusion from being eligible to run.

    That exclusion would not survive a court challenge on constitutional grounds

    Eligibility etc for Federal elected office is in the constitution, which is why for example neither Congress or the States can implement term limits for Senators or Congressmen

  24. desbite the defence of some people dont see how costellow does not have a conflict off interist as a former liberal treasurer and nine network chairwhen his mat hugh marks famously held a liberal party fund raiser back in 2019 and since somyurek mckenzey is leading the get andrews campaign doing a story on sukkar to keep his reputation butwhenandrews stoped ceruption in vick mckenzey only revealed home affairs failing letting in illegal imigrents only when the liberals lost and sbun anthony byrnes resignation as albanese not standing behind integrity

  25. his robberts smith stuff may or may not be good jernalizm but he failed to mention nellsons apointment as head of war memorial who is robberts smith chief suporter

  27. Aaron Newton. Don’t worry about McKenzie. He is just a friendly tool of the spooks and weirdos that occupy the Australian establishment.

    Nine is just as bad as News Corp. They just use more sophisticated language.

    Also, what are your thoughts about the various loser McKay (or really anyone they back and there have been many) forces using the Tele to try to blow up Labor when it is a strong chance of winning. Disgraceful.

  28. I don’t see the US Supreme Court ruling Donald Trump ineligible for the Presidency.

    I do see Scott Morrison spending several years before various inquiries, none of which the Federal Government is funding his legal fees for.

  29. plus benson andnewsother news corp hacks including the pontificating paul kelley did evry thing they can to help morrison win and dis credit albanese as a gaf prone mp with no expirence who was not a cross his brief desbite morrrisons many stuf ups and gafs and just like they inabled trumps activities they then want pomp[is olumns disoning trump and morrison and desbite being the reason whiy morrison and trump had power and tried to put a posetive sbinn onthere bad poleing they now triy to turn on them and escape there responsibility

  30. One criticism that can be made of Walter Secord is that there have been mass shootings in Sydney. Many deaths. The Libs are weak on crime. The Police are failing. Yet big Walter is nowhere to be seen.

    Carr was right. Law and order matters. The Libs are failing Sydney.

  31. most of morrisons staff iva came from news corp or crozby textors lobeying and pr ferm yarin finklestine coal mining kunkell with out news corp trump and morrison would never have been elected yet tnow its gone bad benson like war street tries to protend there not part of the problimaaron newton

  32. Did Morrison get paid extra for being Health minister, Treasurer and all the other god knows what portfolios on top of the Prime Ministers wage?

  33. And it is very revealing that I have yet to see one article or any other media report defending Morrison’s actions as reasonable. He is indeed a pariah. But what we need now is all his enablers to
    suffer a similar fate.

    Watch this space, like 1990 mafiosos, they will sing like a florid parrot given a suitable instrument of probing.

  35. Tom the first and best at 8.13 pm

    Read the Kartinyeri case. It was not decided on that point. Only Gummow and Hayne JJ argued clearly in support of the racist proposition made by the Howard government. Brennan CJ and McHugh J decided the case on a narrower point. Gaudron J in effect supported Brennan and McHugh but not Gummow and Hayne. The clearest judgment was by Kirby J, who saw ambiguity as an obvious result of the change to the Constitution as a result of the 1967 referendum. He argued that such ambiguity must be resolved in accordance with Australian’s obligations under the 1965 UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ratified in 1975). See in particular para 127 of Kirby’s judgment, where he quotes Brennan in a previous decision on the pertinent point about whether the so-called “race power” must be used for the benefit of people subjected to that power. (There were only 6 judgments because Callinan J very reluctantly excused himself from the case.)

    Now, if the Voice referendum succeeds then there will be much more constitutional reform needed. Mick Dodson especially has pointed out that it is archaic for Australia to have a “race power” at all. Historically, what has J.W. Howard achieved? He has delayed necessary reform by at least a quarter of a century. If he is true to himself, he will come out in support of Hanson and Jacinta Price for No. Note that Noel Pearson, who cares a lot about native title, never had much to say in support of Howard. He was sorely disappointed in Abbott (a naysayer) and Turnbull (who now supports Yes). Even if Mavis (at 6.52pm) is right and Dutton backs No (because that’s the majority LNP view), Yes could well win.

  37. @Wranslide:

    “Also, what are your thoughts about the various loser McKay (or really anyone they back and there have been many) forces using the Tele to try to blow up Labor when it is a strong chance of winning. Disgraceful.”

    Well, if they manage to blow up both the careers of both Minns and Bob Who within the next 3 weeks, then I’m all for it. Otherwise … geez it will be a shit Government if we win by default in March. Better than the Libs but faark …

  38. Andrew_Earlwood. Poor old Bingo Bob. Does anyone rate him? And Labor can’t put him into the Losers Lounge cause of da reforms. Where does he go? Maybe back to being an Indy perhaps.

  39. Player One says:
    Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 4:27 pm

    Whoever it was (Upnorth?) who said earlier that PB desperately needs some new polling to discuss was on the money.

    The PB trolls are beginning to eat their own.
    中华人民共和国

    True P1 and thus it was so and always shall be. And never ever get in the middle of a Mexican Knife fight.

    Please Newspoll can we have more?

  40. The long read: The China Trap

    “JESSICA CHEN WEISS is the Michael J. Zak Professor of China and Asia-Pacific Studies at Cornell University. She served as a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow on the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State from August 2021 to July 2022. The views expressed here are her own.”

    Competition with China has begun to consume U.S. foreign policy. Seized with the challenge of a near-peer rival whose interests and values diverge sharply from those of the United States, U.S. politicians and policymakers are becoming so focused on countering China that they risk losing sight of the affirmative interests and values that should underpin U.S. strategy. The current course will not just bring indefinite deterioration of the U.S.-Chinese relationship and a growing danger of catastrophic conflict; it also threatens to undermine the sustainability of American leadership in the world and the vitality of American society and democracy at home.

    Competition cannot become an end in itself. So long as outcompeting China defines the United States’ sense of purpose, Washington will continue to measure success on terms other than on its own. Rankings are a symbolic construct, not an objective condition. If the pursuit of human progress, peace, and prosperity is the ultimate objective, as Blinken has stated, then the United States does not need to beat China in order to win.

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-trap-us-foreign-policy-zero-sum-competition?

  41. “ Poor old Bingo Bob. Does anyone rate him? And Labor can’t put him into the Losers Lounge cause of da reforms. Where does he go?”

    Staffer in Canberra, before being managed out altogether.

  42. Cat at 8.34 pm

    Yes, I get others to do tedious stuff like watching TV (well qualified bludgers are very good at it). On the other hand, outsourcing reading can’t be done easily or reliably. Even Michael Kirby, who was (perhaps surprisingly for a Christian) once caught researching in chambers on Christmas Day (no doubt he did it often), said, some time in the 21st C, he thought that he had watched too much TV. And he has been very critical of the “Infotainment” that masquerades in the modern world as news.

    You may like an interview with Dr Fiona Hill from two weeks ago (before the attacks in Crimea) at:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZ3DQv5KNQE

    The interviewer is an English journo named Edward Lucas, author of The New Cold War: Putin’s Russia and the Threat to the West (2008). Even today I doubt there is really a new Cold War actually comparable with the classic one (1947-89), but Lucas and many others have sold many books on the assertion that such a thing exists. Lucas once claimed he was such a thorn in the Kremlin’s side that his book would never be published in Russia. Indeed it was. I have a copy of the 2009 Russian edition.

    At the risk of sparking another discussion, here are three reasons why Putin’s terrible war in Ukraine (i.e. in the country of Ukraine, not just on territory called Ukraine by others, which means in Russian using the preposition “v” = “in”, not “na” = on) does not fit easily into a new Cold War framework:

    1) from early on the classic Cold War was focused on Germany, with the main impact of the Korean War being to reinforce the armed division of Germany; and while Ukraine is a big country, it is not strategically anywhere near as important as a divided Germany was during the Cold War, and no amount of foreseeable US support for Ukraine will change that comparison. E.g. Kissinger in 1974 wondered “what on earth does strategic [i.e. nuclear] superiority mean?” That meant that it was not in the interests of the US to sacrifice US cities just to protect even western Europe. Under Biden the dilemma faced by Kissinger does not arise, but that does not mean a nuclear disaster won’t happen.

    2) Russia today is neither diplomatically, nor even militarily, anywhere near as apparently powerful as the USSR was (actually it was much less powerful than it appeared, but perceptions still mattered). The main area of Russian power, excluding its purely destructive nuclear capacity (note that is purely destructive, as nuclear weapons cannot effectively be used for bargaining, as Truman’s Secretary of State James Byrnes mistakenly believed) is its energy power, but the EU is very slowly, and with no preparation whatsoever, starting on the process of diminishing such Russian power as remains.

    3) Much of the rest of the world, beyond US allies (that include Japan and South Korea but not most of the countries in East Asia), does not believe it has to choose between supporting the US in Ukraine or not doing so, as a sort of existential choice. See e.g. the opinions of Kishore Mahbubani and others. Whereas the classic Cold War quite quickly became a global contest and lasted as such for 40 years, Putin’s war on Ukraine is primarily a terrible regional tragedy. Of course Lavrov went to Africa etc but he was essentially on a defensive tour and was no doubt told privately in Egypt: let the grain go now.

    Dr Hill seems very pessimistic in that interview about how long the war will last. She suspects that any cease-fire will just be seen by Putin as a pause before a new offensive. She might underestimate the scale of the domestic problems building up beneath Putin, as the bloody dictator himself does.

  43. “For now, the prospect of one-man rule reigns over us only as joke, a series of amusing memes and gags that never happened at which we laugh, not unlike the nervous laughter that accompanies those who walk away alive from a car smash.”

    “ For the first time in our history as a nation, we have been confronted with an example of how the shadow of tyranny might fall upon us. And we would be foolish not to reflect on that experience, we would be wrong to dismiss it as the past, and we must act to ensure that the catastrophe of tyranny never befalls our nation – or even the folly of a fool who perversely advises others to not trust in government.”

    “ In 1999, we were told there was a choice between a politicians’ republic or a monarchy. Perhaps the choice we now confront in the wake of this appalling scandal is between the possibility of a politician’s dictatorship or how we might make ourselves anew, wiser, better and stronger, as a democratic republic.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/jabberwocky-meets-captain-ahab-as-morrison-races-down-the-rabbit-hole-20220818-p5baxi.html

  47. poroti at 1.33 pm and the tandemites’ previous 40 years (+ Vic comparison)

    What would be an optimum ratio of Premiers to party leaders for effective rebuilding and refreshing?

    Since Charlie Court retired the WA Libs have had 3 Premiers (including his successor Ray O’Connor and his son Richard, as well as the almost-retired Colin Barnett) and 10 non-Premier leaders (Barnett gets counted in both lists). If you count only the past 20 years the ratio is 1 to 9 (Barnett in both lists). The WA Libs were much better at recuperating in the post-Charlie generation than in the Barnett era.

    For comparison, in those 40 years the Vic Libs have had only 10 leaders, three of whom as Premiers with one of those (Kennett) also a non-Premier (like Barnett). In the past 20 years the Vic Libs have had 2 Premiers out of 5 leaders (Guy counted only once as non-Premier).

    What is the common link between 5 of those 6 Lib Premiers in Vic and WA, the exception being Ray O’Connor who was gifted the job? All were first elected when a federal Labor government was in power, and, except for Barnett (whose election was a bit of a fluke given his imminent retirement and Alan Carpenter’s lack of political nous), had been in power for some time.

  48. “A man drives down a country lane and runs over a cockerel. He knocks at a nearby farmhouse door and a woman answers.

    “‘I appear to have killed your cockerel,’ he says. ‘I’d like to replace it.’ The woman replies: ‘Please yourself – the hens are round the back.’”

  49. The Solomon Islands deal with Huawei is the Chinese debt trap model used vs Sri Lanka all over again. Huawei is loaning the Solomons $97 million. This is 7% of GDP for the Solomons. They have no chance of paying it back.

  50. Well at least mckay seemed to attack the liberals unfortunatily not on crime but was strong secord has been uselis as has minns realy yes its disgraceful the teligraph who were the leadwere used buy minns allies to get rid of mckay now turning on labor noqw that were competative how ever minns is weak and has notis probaly one of the worst leaders labor should never liston to eamma and richardson secord and minns team have mostly seemed to have given up secord has not attacked the libs on the mas shootings in sydney

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