Honeymoon polling and state by-election news

The first embers of polling since the election record strong support for the new Prime Minister and his agenda.

US pollster Morning Consult, which conducts monthly international polling on world leaders’ domestic personal ratings, has found Anthony Albanese with an approval rating of 51% and a disapproval rating of 25%. Its final result for Scott Morrison was 40% approval and 54% disapproval. The poll was conducted May 23 to 31 from a sample of 3770.

Essential Research published its usual fortnightly poll this week, which had nothing to offer on voting intention or leadership ratings, although it did find that 23% rated themselves more likely to vote Coalition with Peter Dutton as leader compared with 27% less likely. Questions on attitudes to Labor policies found 70% support for increasing the minimum wage and 69% support for a federal Independent Commission Against Corruption, with only 9% opposed in each case. Fifty-two per cent felt Labor should “look for opportunities to rebuild relations” with China, with only 19% favouring a more confrontational position and 12% favouring the current set of policies. Support for the Uluru statement was found to have increased significantly since November 2017, with 53% supporting an indigenous voice to parliament in the constitution.

Some notable state news that got lost in the federal election rush:

• A by-election will be held on June 18 for the Queensland state seat of Callide after its Liberal National Party member, Colin Boyce, moved to federal politics as the Nationals member for Flynn. This is a very safe rural conservative seat, but Labor has nonetheless endorsed Bronwyn Dendle to run against Bryson Head of the LNP, a 26-year-old mining industry geologist. Also in the field are candidates of One Nation, Katter’s Australian Party, Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice.

• The by-election to replace Vickie Chapman in the safe Liberal seat of Bragg in South Australia has been set for July 2. The ABC reports four nominees for the Liberal preselection: Jack Batty, adviser to the Australian High Commissioner in London; Sandy Biar, national director of the Australian Republic Movement and public affairs officer with the army; and Melissa Jones, a law firm director; and Cara Miller, former co-owner of a radiology business.

• Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff has announced he will introduce legislation this year to increase the size of the state’s House of Assembly from 25 seats to 35, reversing a change made in 1998. The move has the support of the Liberals, Labor and the Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,071 comments on “Honeymoon polling and state by-election news”

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  1. Wranslide @ #1999 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 7:23 pm

    Newton Peter Khalil really? Marles chose his bag so you have to think he has something about him in the area. He has ambitions so he won’t want to stuff it up although I don’t think he will get there.

    Australia’s defence policy is a shambles. AUKUS for some subs in 50 years reliant on tech that by then will be how old? AUKUS is sadly an example where bipartisanship in defence/foreign policy does not always serve our nation well

    You really don’t know what you are talking about, do you?

  2. Wranslide @ #1984 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 6:49 pm

    You might think the ADF would hold off on such flights given the inevitable provocation they cause given the election? It was in the day or so after the election wasn’t it? Seriously some nice moves by the establishment to lock in a bit of a confrontation to lock in the new Govt to the existing narrative. Worked nicely.

    The establishment couldn’t be that sophisticated could they?

    I would think Albo would have been receiving briefings on these sort of activities at least since the beginning of the caretaker period.

  3. C@tmomma I am sorry you are right. I did read about 500 year Chinese invasion plans found in a secretly discovered document. In fact I think you posted it last week. My apologies. I should have remembered.

  4. Oh by the way c@tmomma I was saying that Australian defence policy has been a shambles. I thought you agreed with that?

  5. During the election we had Chinese spy ships off the WA coast, and soon after Australian spyplanes over the South China Sea. Not surprised at the reactions.

  6. Gas story on ABC 730. The AWU ran a decent campaign a few years ago about reserving some gas for local use. It did get a little traction at the time. It’s a shame it didn’t get more traction given the current situation. The gas crisis is the Liberals making. The media framing it as a Labor crisis is disgusting.

  7. https://theaimn.com/it-is-hard-to-fathom-what-a-hateful-place-australia-has-become/

    sprocket_ @ #1949 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 5:18 pm

    I can see the LNP withdrawing to safe ground in Queensland, and letting the rest of the party of Menzies ‘wither quickly like grass and wilt like tender plants’…

    The Happy Clappers will appreciate that quote, Psalm 37.

    More appropriate for them is Psalm 137.
    “8…doomed to be destroyed,
    blessed shall he be who repays you
    with what you have done to us!
    9 Blessed shall he be who takes your little ones
    and dashes them against the rock!”

    A bit extreme, maybe, but I agree with the general sentiment.
    A lovely little book, the bible. A quote for every situation.

  8. Let’s be real here.

    The entire parliamentary fossil fuel cartel is at fault for this energy crisis for not allowing Australia to transition to renewables sooner.

  9. Wranslide @ #2007 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 7:28 pm

    C@tmomma I am sorry you are right. I did read about 500 year Chinese invasion plans found in a secretly discovered document. In fact I think you posted it last week. My apologies. I should have remembered.

    I advise you to read this:


    It speaks of the current 100 year plan. However, it also references Chinese plans of unification under the Qin Dynasty, that were two and a half centuries in their execution, to finality.

  10. Yabba, I don’t think there is any redemption for the Liberal Party. They seriously need to look at closing down the remaining chapters, repenting, and seeking enlightenment.

    Cause the Liberal Party as it is, is knocking on heaven’s door.

  11. Individuals and families I work with have expressed relief that there is a change of government and hopeful for some improvement in the crisis situation for people with mental illness struggling to access housing, decent income, and NDIS support.

    A lot of work needs to be done, many people living on the edges of survival in our society.

  12. Gas

    Can do capitalism

    And, scanning this site (whilst 7.30 is on so there is a commentary!!), so many experts, so little knowledge

    It is noted that the Indonesian pm has informed that Indonesia does not wish to be put in a position of choosing between China and other Nations – China being Indonesia’s largest trading partner (sound familiar?) and does not wish to see a Cold War in the Region

    This replicates the views of other Nations in our Region and globally

    Before you get to business leaders

  13. C@T

    “ Not at the moment they’re not and that’s the point. Also, it’s a false equivalence to use that argument to attempt to absolve China of blame.”

    Agreed. The Hainan Island incident of 1 Apr 2001 (for anyone interested) was a previous example of Chinese airforce aircraft belligerence with fatal results and a major diplomatic incident. China has form even in international airspace. Remembering too that the Chinese Navy recently aimed a laser at an Australian airforce aircraft.

  14. I have at times criticised Labor on this blog when I think they get policy wrong.

    Nevertheless, to suggest Labor is causally responsible for any of Australia’s current crop of crises, after nine years in opposition is laughable. This is especially the case for Angus Taylor’s deliberately designed gas-led robbery of Australian energy consumers.

    Labor hasn’t even had the opportunity to block questionable Liberal bills in the Senate thanks to some sell outs like Hanson.

  15. Good to see keir Starmer not letting a crisis go to waste:

    Starmer says tonight’s vote will be ‘beginning of end’ for Johnson even if he wins

    Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, told LBC during his “Call Keir” phone-in this morning that, even if Boris Johnson wins the vote tonight, it will mark beginning of the end for him. He told LBC:

    I think the mood has changed. I think the public have made their mind up about this man. They don’t think he’s really telling the truth about many, many things – not just partygate – but just the general sense that this man doesn’t really tell the truth, [he] can’t be trusted.

    We’ve got a prime minister trying to cling on to his job and most people would say ‘your job is to help me through the cost-of-living crisis and you’re not doing it because you’re distracted’.

    I think history tells us that this is the beginning of the end. If you look at the previous examples of no confidence votes, even when Conservative prime ministers survived those, he might survive it tonight, the damage is already done and usually they fall reasonably swiftly afterwards.

    There are 359 Conservative MPs and so Boris Johnson needs at least 180 votes to be sure of winning. But, as Starmer points out, a technical win is not necessarily a political victory, and the last Conservative prime minister to win a vote of confidence like this (Theresa May, on 12 December 2018) was out of office less than eight months later.

    At the weekend Tim Shipman from the Sunday Times produced some benchmarks that would show whether or not Johnson is doing worse than May in 2018, John Major in 1995 and Margaret Thatcher in 1990. (The latter two are not exact parallels because they were facing a leadership challenge, not a no confidence vote.)

    Tim Shipman

    CUT OUT AND KEEP: I’ve been crunching numbers in case of a vote of no-confidence to compare results
    If the rebels get:
    121 votes: Johnson will have done as badly % wise as John Major in 1995
    133 votes: Worse than May in 2018
    147 votes: Worse than Thatcher v Heseltine in 1990


  16. zoomster @ #2019 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 7:52 pm

    So we’re up from a 100 year plan to a 250 year plan?

    Getting closer to 500 by the day.

    I really don’t get what’s got up your nose lately, zoomster. Doesn’t bother me, of course.

    Anyway, I’ve already admitted that 500 years was incorrect, but you do you. 🙂

  17. Really a bit stupid for anyone to be laying any blame on the Albanese Govt for the current difficulties about Gas supply and price. Its not like we haven’t had one for several years now as far as manufacturing and industry are concerned. The strong possibility of something like the current situation has been well telegraphed and indeed discussed already. Why does anyone think the Turnbull put in their “trigger”??

    That was something that has proved inadequate, but it was definitely an acknowledgment by that Govt that there was a problem. The idiot wing of the Libs focused on the political use of this by pretty much declaring that the only answer was increasing supply…most of which would have been exported to their mates profit anyway and i reckon that focus was also seen as a mechanism to undermine action on Climate Change and de-carbonisation of the economy.

    This problem didn’t come up overnight and it wont be solved soon enough to mean people wont suffer financially. ALP …. yup…they now have a responsibility to deal with it as best they can since they are in Govt. But, they shouldn’t be letting anyone forget who dumped this on all of us.

  18. C@T

    “ Not at the moment they’re not and that’s the point. Also, it’s a false equivalence to use that argument to attempt to absolve China of blame.”

    Agreed. The Australian plane is a recon aircraft that is a modified 737 airliner airframe. The Chinese jet fighter is literally twice as fast and far more manoeuvrable. The Aussie plane simply couldn’t hassle the Chinese plane.

    Aaron Newton

    I saw your post earlier and share your view of most of our defence ministers. Beasley was good way back. But for most of the period from the end of the cold war till Xi came to power it hasn’t mattered. Since Xi (2013) came to power and declared himself leader for life, we have needed a competent Defence Minister.

    (I think the whole war on terror was a giant police action gone wrong. A tragic waste.)

  19. Really is a bit stupid for anyone to deny that both the L/NP and Labor have both been financed by fossil fuel interests to preserve their dominance in the energy market.

  20. So, who was the Oz PM a few weeks ago?
    According to those in the press pack during the election campaign, ‘Albanese was not up to it’, and/or did not “sound or look like a PM”.
    He has sure looked the part to me in the short time he has been in office
    Apart from showing totally immature behaviour in the campaign, the media hacks have no judgement at all……

  21. Jeremy Hunt PM?

    Jeremy Hunt, the former foreign secretary who is one of the favourites to succeed Boris Johnson as Tory leader, has said he will vote against the PM in tonight’s no confidence vote. In a statement posted on Twitter as a thread he said:

    The Conservative party must now decide if it wishes to change its leader. Because of the situation in Ukraine this was not a debate I wanted to have now but under our rules we must do that.

    Having been trusted with power, Conservative MPs know in our hearts we are not giving the British people the leadership they deserve.

    We are not offering the integrity, competence and vision necessary to unleash the enormous potential of our country.

    And because we are no longer trusted by the electorate, who know this too, we are set to lose the next general election.

    Anyone who believes our country is stronger, fairer and more prosperous when led by Conservatives should reflect that the consequence of not changing will be to hand the country to others who do not share those values.

    Today’s decision is change or lose. I will be voting for change.

  22. I wonder if Labor is trying to avoid pulling the domestic reservation gas trigger simply because it was a policy in place by Turnbull? I m happy to be corrected on this, but I seem to recall that the support for it at the time was quite bipartisan, and (again from memory) Labor have actually criticized the Liberals in the past for not using it themselves during a previous issue with gas supplies.

    If it is the case that Labor simply don’t want to see the Liberals get any credit, then they should have a rethink, and be quick about it – because we are the ones who will suffer for it if they don’t 🙁

  23. Tricot says:
    Monday, June 6, 2022 at 8:21 pm

    So, who was the Oz PM a few weeks ago?
    According to those in the press pack during the election campaign, ‘Albanese was not up to it’, and/or did not “sound or look like a PM”.
    From memory Murphy was still trying to figure out who he was.

  24. NDIS forcing vulnerable people to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal over even basic support co-ordination needs.

    No accountability. And new record partisan liberal party hack appointments stacked the tribunal this year.

    They are sending vulnerable people to the AAT as they can’t acknowledge basis support needs for people in crisis.

    In this context, it must be remembered that the National Disability Insurance Scheme took ALL responsibility away from ALL STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT FUNDED PROGRAMS ACROSS AUSTRALIA. This is the level of responsibility. When it fails, there is no OTHER SUPPORT OPTION AVAILABLE at any level of government to support vulnerable people with disability.

    Time for change in this space, this is impacting vulnerable people with debilitating disabilities.

    Anxiety is often an extra bonus for people with various cognitive, mental health and physical disabilities.

    NDIS is adding extreme anxiety to people attempting to navigate this system.

    Many people cannot afford expensive medical assessments and miss out.

    The money the NDIA is paying lawyers to fight vulnerable clients on their basic support needs, would be better spent on effective advocacy programs to support them access their actual support needs.

    The NDIS builds the workforce and economy, and skills up many people to help others.


  25. Re subs, Socrates: V-A Noonan and former Senator Patrick are part of the problem, not the solution. Marles would too well to stick clear of both gentlemen, IMO.

    “Off the Shelf” anything as relevant submarine options is an oxymoron unless we are talking about either:

    Virginia class block 4s or block 5s;

    Attack Class; or

    Suffrens with with the ‘front of boat’ design work from the attack class (ie. the American combat and weapons systems incorporated).

    It is now simply too late to explore any other option without a yawing capability gap emerging. That includes both the German option (the Singaporean boats are actually different from the design concept pitched to us in the competitive evaluation process back in 2015, they would need to be enlarged again AND have American combat and weapons systems incorporated: boom – that’s 5 years design work THERE) and any ‘son of collins’, Japanese, Korean or Swedish options. Patrick should know this, but he is still blathering on about ‘off the shelf’ options. Maybe he means short range boats with ZERO modifications, but sufficient to patrol the SI form a base in Townsville. OK. That might work. Just. But for oceanic work BEYOND the SI, or the other side of the Indonesian archipelago (even if operating from a FOB in Darwin)? No way: every single SSK option bar the Attack class would need significant design reworking and … that pesky 5 year delay before we start to cut steel on the first boat is unavoidable.

    Long story short: if we need an interim SSK until we go nuclear then the only option on the table that is remotely relevant to our need is the just cancelled Attack class. But that would tie up Osborne for a 15 years just for the first 4 boats.

    We are simply better off finding a contracting partner for a concurrent build of nuclear boats if we are truly committed to the nuclear propulsion option: either the Americans if they are prepared to compromise their own order book and build us 2-4 Virginia class subs over the next 15 years as we get our ducks in a row to build the remainder of the fleet in Adelaide OR … the French. Did you read my long post from around 9-10am yesterday morning Socrates?

  26. “ NDIS forcing vulnerable people to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal over even basic support co-ordination needs.”

    This is another very good reason why Labor should scrap and replace the appallingly stacked AAT. It isn’t just being used to stymy Labor politically and protect Liberal mates. It will be used to harm low income families.

  27. A question studiously avoided by all real parties is whether it is actually possible to fund the NDIS or whether it will need to be rationed in some way.

    Other social spends are rationed. Pensions are kept low. Veterans are waiting ages for their claims. Waiting lists for surgery are at extremely high levels. Children in some NSW government schools are having their face time rationed. People are waiting for rationed ambulances. People are waiting in casualty. Legal aid is strictly rationed. Social housing is rationed. Policing is rationed. Disaster aid is rationed.

    In short, just about every single social and public spend is de facto rationed.

    Can the NDIS be the only uncapped, unrationed, unqueued social spend?

    The last figure I saw was that the NDIS alone was heading for a $64 billion annual bill.

    Most other social spends will suffer similar growing paints as the Boomer Budge dodders towards its logical conclusion.

  28. AE

    I agree we should stick to the nuclear sub build. I said it is too late to run off with any interim design.

    And as I said it should be an existing design. Anything else causes delay. Beyond that we are both guessing.

    Marles does need an advisor though. If he is falling for the Son of Collins spin he is out of his depth.


    Sorry I was working this morning and will go back and reread. Night all.

  29. “Marles does need an advisor though. If he is falling for the Son of Collins spin he is out of his depth.”

    Son of Collins was a great idea back in 2010. But then Gillard happened. The rest his history.

    Maybe I should give Sir Charles Marles a call?

    Nah. I prefer the cheap seats, lol.

    But seriously. …

    Nah. Blood pressure rising just thinking about it.

  30. Defence Minister Richard Marles says he doubts Australia will be able to build its first nuclear submarine by the previous government’s deadline of 2038, accepting an interim fleet of conventional boats may be needed to avoid a serious capability gap in the nation’s defences.

    Former defence minister Peter Dutton maintained that the first of the nuclear submarines under the AUKUS agreement would likely arrive before 2038 when Australia’s Collins-class submarines are expected to start being taken out of service.

    But the defence minister and deputy prime minister suggested that timeline wasn’t a realistic expectation.

    “I think in reality as the former government left office, the projection of most was that [delivery] was more likely to be in the mid-2040s,” Marles told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, which could leave a major capability gap.

    Asked whether he would order Defence to look into building a conventional fleet of submarines, Marles said: “We need to look at how we bridge the gap. That’s all I can say. And my mind is open about how we do that.”

    … Marles has returned to the defence portfolio, having served as Labor’s defence spokesperson from 2016 to January last year, and says he won’t be owned by the Department of Defence.

    “I intend to be an activist defence minister,” he said. “I feel like I’ve been lucky to have the benefit of spending five years as the shadow minister for defence. I don’t come to this having just started to think about defence policy, I’ve been thinking about it for a long time.”

    In a strong sign he wants to lead the department, Marles has set up an office in its Canberra headquarters and intends to mostly work from there, rather than Parliament House, when he is in the nation’s capital.


  31. C@t: all that posturing by Dutton about how surprised people will be when the final AUKUS subs deal was announced: implying we’d have a fleet (not just one) of nuclear subs well before 2038 appears to be … 100% bullshit. Marles has obviously gone through the ‘red book’ (or is it the blue book? i cant recall) containing all the important briefings that an incoming, newly elected government receives upon being sworn in.

    Dutton should be made to wear this like a crown of thorns. So should V-A Noonan who should be managed out asap.

    As I long surmised, the only way that AUKUS could deliver a fleet of subs for us before 2038 was if the Americans started building some for us by the middle of THIS decade whilst simultaneously teaching us how to build our own and assisting with getting all the plant, equipment and personnel up to speed. The Americans could do that and with Dutton blathering about our subs having VL capabilities I half suspected that Dutton had gotten Biden to sign off on that for an American build of ‘Aussie Virginias’.

    The problem is that for America to do so would seriously compromise their own order book. I’d say from Marles comments that there is no such deal on the table. Nor is there likely to be. Neither AUKUS partner is in a position – or willing – to help us get the next generation of subs until the 2040s, as I said from day one when I labeled the whole idea as ‘catastrophe’. And it is.

  32. I should clarify that I work with people trying to access support on low incomes through the public system (though not directly working within the public system). Bulk billing health professionals are very limited in the mental health space. People with chronic mental health conditions seem to be increasingly missing out on the limited mental health supports you can access under the NDIS.

    A fit for purpose scheme that provides adequate bulk billed psychology and counselling, social work advocacy, and allied health professionals to address other co-morbidities, where needed, under Medicare or NDIS is needed

    I don’t have a preference or understanding where mental health would be easier to locate between the two, but we can afford to look after people properly and acknowledge their right to a decent life, while reducing other expensive social and economic costs overall: Crisis mental health, emergency departments, jails, etc.

    Also, watch as people that are supported effectively are able contribute back (along with the NDIS/Mental Health workforce) to their community!

  33. “Also, watch as people that are supported effectively are able to contribute back (along with the NDIS/Mental Health workforce) to their community!”

    It could be a beautiful thing if we fix supports for chronic mental health conditions. If people can be supported and treated in a more holistic way, they can live lives like everyone else.

    That was the whole framework idea behind the NDIS.

  34. Earlwood,
    Interesting to also note that time’s up for the Chief of Defense in 1 month. I doubt Marles will keep Angus Campbell on.

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