Honeymoon polling and state by-election news

The first embers of polling since the election record strong support for the new Prime Minister and his agenda.

US pollster Morning Consult, which conducts monthly international polling on world leaders’ domestic personal ratings, has found Anthony Albanese with an approval rating of 51% and a disapproval rating of 25%. Its final result for Scott Morrison was 40% approval and 54% disapproval. The poll was conducted May 23 to 31 from a sample of 3770.

Essential Research published its usual fortnightly poll this week, which had nothing to offer on voting intention or leadership ratings, although it did find that 23% rated themselves more likely to vote Coalition with Peter Dutton as leader compared with 27% less likely. Questions on attitudes to Labor policies found 70% support for increasing the minimum wage and 69% support for a federal Independent Commission Against Corruption, with only 9% opposed in each case. Fifty-two per cent felt Labor should “look for opportunities to rebuild relations” with China, with only 19% favouring a more confrontational position and 12% favouring the current set of policies. Support for the Uluru statement was found to have increased significantly since November 2017, with 53% supporting an indigenous voice to parliament in the constitution.

Some notable state news that got lost in the federal election rush:

• A by-election will be held on June 18 for the Queensland state seat of Callide after its Liberal National Party member, Colin Boyce, moved to federal politics as the Nationals member for Flynn. This is a very safe rural conservative seat, but Labor has nonetheless endorsed Bronwyn Dendle to run against Bryson Head of the LNP, a 26-year-old mining industry geologist. Also in the field are candidates of One Nation, Katter’s Australian Party, Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice.

• The by-election to replace Vickie Chapman in the safe Liberal seat of Bragg in South Australia has been set for July 2. The ABC reports four nominees for the Liberal preselection: Jack Batty, adviser to the Australian High Commissioner in London; Sandy Biar, national director of the Australian Republic Movement and public affairs officer with the army; and Melissa Jones, a law firm director; and Cara Miller, former co-owner of a radiology business.

• Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff has announced he will introduce legislation this year to increase the size of the state’s House of Assembly from 25 seats to 35, reversing a change made in 1998. The move has the support of the Liberals, Labor and the Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,071 comments on “Honeymoon polling and state by-election news”

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  1. The Prime Minister was riding the bike with his boots on. Still at least the photos showed him looking very trim. I hope he keeps that up. He needs some other suits though. Nice to have a fit well presented leader on the global stage representing Australia.

  2. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, June 6, 2022 at 10:09 pm

    Can I just say that it looked like Joko Widodo seemed comfortable riding a bicycle and the PM didn’t. ”

    I know we have a pm who actually listens to awesome, but little known local indie rock legends like The Hummingbirds and the Celibate Rifles (i never expected that).

    Joko is actually a metal head, he even likes death metal bands. Perhaps they discussed the sad death of Eddie Van Halen.

    Albo went on a bike ride with Briggsy.

    Albo accuses Scomo of making up his own nickname, Briggsy accuses Albo of wanting to fight him about it.


  3. C@t,

    Can I just say that it looked like Joko Widodo seemed comfortable riding a bicycle and the PM didn’t.

    I looked at the link, but did not see the footage you saw.

    It is possible that Albo is not comfortable on a bike, but it would surprise me.

    Growing up near Golden Grove, bicycles were an important mode of transport. Most kids of our era (you me and Albo were all born within a few years of each other), quickly learnt to ride bikes – either ours or friends.

  4. Ar, well the NDIS is spiralling to the black hole, can we salvage it, do we value what it can do? There is a fair bit of starting from scratch to do, as the implementation over it’s first 9 years had led to poor foundations.

  5. Earlwood

    218SG will work–and will be ideal due to tropical adaptation–from FOB in Brunei (which will have to be the major RN base in the Pacific per AUKUS) and also (if we can get our act together) possibly from Manus. And even from Singapore…

    They need only 28 crew, partly addressing the crewing problem. Unlike Attack and any SSN they don’t need to integrate with USN as the whole point is to operate silently on single boat missions. They are not for protecting surface assets or chasing submarines around the place, but instead for covert surveillance (particularly in littoral waters), in/ex-filtration and both forward and coastal defense.

    Someone in the RAN always wants to dick around, so have a plan to get the latter half of them with the vertical airlock to keep such people distracted. Bang!!!

    And keep it going – expensive and highly capable SSN plus silent SSK, in the long term built in AU (Korea now has independent design and build capability).

  6. @Player One

    The gas is exported to major trading partners in East Asia (who are running low on gas themselves) to not fulfill the contracts would not only be expensive but damage Australia’s reputation as a reliable player in the market.

    What Labor could do is introduce a super profits tax on the gas companies who are raking it in at the moment and use the revenue to compensate low and lower middle income earners for the sharp rise in their energy bills , but I doubt the ALP have the stomach for that.

  7. Voodoo Economics:

    AU is exporting about 65% of the relevant gas production under long term contracts, then all the rest (excepting the 15% of WA based projects wisely reserved for WA) into the spot market to make a killing. Commonwealth just needs to reserve 15% of the 35% going onto the spot market, per the WA experience.

    Those jokers even had the Duke of York as their front man at one stage, before he was completely disgraced. They’ll fold.

  8. Can do capitalism

    The Saudi’s increase supply to mitigate the Ukraine/Russia impact – but also increase the price

    So windfall profits

    At whose expense?

    Excuse the pun but we are really being put over the barrel and screwed – and this has been going on for a lifetime

    With the gas position, no doubt pressure will be bought to bear it being a matter of how long can do capitalism will resist before putting the circumstances of Australians first at a cost to their Balance Sheets and Retained Profits, which Retained Profits are after tax

    Perhaps a tax concession could be on offer as a one off incentive – with no impact on the tax contribution the offset being the tax impost on the “windfall” profit

    There are many ways to skin a cat

    The objective here being supply and price

    As they say, everything is on the table

    In 2019, my view has always been that Shorten did not pay respect to Capital and the contribution of Capital to the well being of Australia and Australians

    Under Albanese that mistake has not been replicated (so the horses have not been scared with the result we have seen)

    This is where and why the Greens are the danger they are (they have no regard to the real world)

  9. @EG Theodore.

    Who will fold the energy companies? Why would they do that when their making a killing for their shareholders?

  10. AE, seems you have been doing more work than me on keeping up with the subs thing. Collins LOTE is still planned as far as i know??

  11. Voodoo Economics

    Who will fold the energy companies? Why would they do that when their making a killing for their shareholders?

    Alan Carpenter did it for WA, in 24 hours

    Little Johnnie could have had the same deal for AUS, but he wasn’t on our side.

    They can try to claim “sovereign risk”, but everyone knows they lied.

  12. Re the SNP/Green coalition in Scotland ..

    ‘The SNP’s War on the Public Sector .. this week, the SNP announced plans to shrink the public sector and cut tens of thousands of jobs – exposing the myth that the party offers an alternative to neoliberal orthodoxy .. Scottish Finance Minister Kate Forbes announced her spending review .. the London Tory journal The Spectator hailed her as ‘the McMilton Friedman of Scottish nationalism’ .. and if you are wondering where the Scottish Greens are in all this—having joined the Scottish Government last year—they are lockstep behind SNP leaders’


    ‘McMilton Friedman’ 🙂

  13. @ChrisBurn_Post

    Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month’s by-election

    Lab 56%
    Con 33%
    Ind 3%
    REFUK 3%
    Lib Dem 2%
    Greens 2%
    Yorkshire Party 1%
    Britain First 1%

    Survey of 519 voters in Wakefield carried out between May 24 and June 1

    Lab + 16 and Con – 14 vs. 2019 GE

    4:41 PM · Jun 6, 2022·Twitter Web App

    ps Survation have been bragging on Twitter that they got the Hartlepool by election right in their seat poll

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