US pollster Morning Consult, which conducts monthly international polling on world leaders’ domestic personal ratings, has found Anthony Albanese with an approval rating of 51% and a disapproval rating of 25%. Its final result for Scott Morrison was 40% approval and 54% disapproval. The poll was conducted May 23 to 31 from a sample of 3770.
Essential Research published its usual fortnightly poll this week, which had nothing to offer on voting intention or leadership ratings, although it did find that 23% rated themselves more likely to vote Coalition with Peter Dutton as leader compared with 27% less likely. Questions on attitudes to Labor policies found 70% support for increasing the minimum wage and 69% support for a federal Independent Commission Against Corruption, with only 9% opposed in each case. Fifty-two per cent felt Labor should “look for opportunities to rebuild relations” with China, with only 19% favouring a more confrontational position and 12% favouring the current set of policies. Support for the Uluru statement was found to have increased significantly since November 2017, with 53% supporting an indigenous voice to parliament in the constitution.
Some notable state news that got lost in the federal election rush:
• A by-election will be held on June 18 for the Queensland state seat of Callide after its Liberal National Party member, Colin Boyce, moved to federal politics as the Nationals member for Flynn. This is a very safe rural conservative seat, but Labor has nonetheless endorsed Bronwyn Dendle to run against Bryson Head of the LNP, a 26-year-old mining industry geologist. Also in the field are candidates of One Nation, Katter’s Australian Party, Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice.
• The by-election to replace Vickie Chapman in the safe Liberal seat of Bragg in South Australia has been set for July 2. The ABC reports four nominees for the Liberal preselection: Jack Batty, adviser to the Australian High Commissioner in London; Sandy Biar, national director of the Australian Republic Movement and public affairs officer with the army; and Melissa Jones, a law firm director; and Cara Miller, former co-owner of a radiology business.
• Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff has announced he will introduce legislation this year to increase the size of the state’s House of Assembly from 25 seats to 35, reversing a change made in 1998. The move has the support of the Liberals, Labor and the Greens.
‘Pi says:
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 4:27 pm
BW: “large population increases.”
Our population in Oz is decreasing without immigration. We are becoming more urban, true. But without immigration, and a fair amount of it, Australia’s fertility-rate, like almost all western nations, is going backwards.’
———————-
The context of the discussion is the ACT. We are a an very desirable destination with a growing population. Even the Prime Minister lives here now.
Hh
Alpha Zero’s selected cartoons are devastating, IMO. If the rest of the political commentary is similar then BJ is gone. There is some speculation that he will go the nuclear option and call a general election just to spite those who are intent on rolling him.
Classic ‘Gimme the Job or I’ll Wreck the Joint!’
I’ll be pleased if Boris is thrown out in disgrace.
Rex Douglas @ #1897 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 2:26 pm
A more accurate reflection of events, Rex.
Fortunately this didn’t happen, unfortunately Hussar said she wouldn’t stand at the next election and Labor had already preselected a new candidate when she changed her mind.
maybi susix street could of traind her on runing her office workmans article was pritty bad similar to news corps treatement of kenearly and Wong moris yemma who was the closist premier to obead tripodi is treated as a hearow by siman benson and news corp becaus of his lack of labor values pushing eilectrisity privatization yet kennearly is attackt it was unfair nathan rease discribing her as tripodies girl which is an example of sexist phramingof media and mps refering to powerful woman as pupits of men for example the teels as pupits of holmes a cort or discribing strong woman as mean girls
First day at the office for conquerers…
Noise machine alert. Neither have around 19 others.
Aaron Newtown – what is your opinion of Obeid and Tripodi? Unfairly maligned?
an other example of murdockrasy kenearly was attackt for years for being installed buy tripodi and obead yet rease and yemma escaped and gillard attackt being insstalled by the so called facelis men yet morrisons facelis man allex hawke mislead dutton and turnbull to help morrison win and no mention the media tends to use sexist phraming painting woman as pupits of men dutton does this a lotincluding on sunday workman at buz feed was very left wing pro labor regulaly attackt michaelia cash broke the afp tip off when her staffer quit and conie wells faction but since joinging australian attackt charlton and albanese constantlysimilar to maiden left at new dayley different at news corp
Interesting. Thanks BW. A couple of quotes.
His thesis is that China’s population decline is irreversible and will be rapid.
http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/FCA//2022/650.html
For reading pleasure or not
The beauty of geopolitics and demographics is you make sexy predictions which are decades out. Zeihan is likely to be long retired or dead before they are realised.
In 2070 no one is going to remember to say “that Zeihan guy he was way off the mark”
‘Late Riser says:
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 4:42 pm
Take a gander at this:
https://twitter.com/peterzeihan/status/1444292206865657862?lang=en
Interesting. Thanks BW. A couple of quotes.
The most expensive thing you can do to your country is retire before dying
Most of us will live to see China collapse by the numbers…assuming nothing else destroys it first.
His thesis is that China’s population decline is irreversible and will be rapid.’
———————————–
I take him with a grain of salt. But one of his major strengths is demography.
Shellbell
Is this a judgement that might have major international implications for Googles and other platforms?
BW: “I would not for a nanosecond believe a single official statistic from China.”
Data doesn’t matter. Got it.
LVT
Only true in part. Some of his short run predictions have been on the money, as they say. Which is how Zeihan makes a living off the major corporates who pay for his futurology.
And which is more than anyone can say about any Bludger.
What IS interesting is this. Inveterate amateur China watchers such as moi meme have been fascinated by the resolute rigidity with which Xi and the ChiCommies have stuck with zero Covid. Over the past two months this has cost China astronomical sums in lost production as Shanghai went into lockdown, for example.
Why?
Zeihan suggests, on the demographic data, that they may have been lying big time about covid deaths earlier in the pandemic. We know that covid deaths in the US is knocking years off life expectancy.
Just maybe the Wuhan+ story is far, far worse than anyone outside China knows.
And maybe this is why China struck hard and viciously at Australia for having the temerity to call for an independent investigation of the Wuhan Labs…
Who knows?
”
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 2:37 pm
Soothes the tension to see the two leaders engaged liked that in a bike ride. Wonderful.
Albanese is gonna kill it on the international stage.
”
I am pleasantly surprised that Albanese is getting warm reception from fellow leaders. I like that.
Leaders at QUAD were joking with him and now President Joko.
Morrison would have loved this kind of publicity.
Pi says:
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 2:27 pm
If anyone needs a reminder about why renewables are the future for Oz.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/acts-electricity-prices-to-fall-as-renewables-provide-shield-from-energy-market-chaos/
“Electricity users in the Australian Capital Territory will see average electricity costs fall by at least 1.25 per cent come 1 July, as the capital territory’s extensive contracts for 100 per cent renewable electricity shield its consumers from the chaos rippling through Australia’s energy markets.”
And that means if QLD decided to do this, we could be in the same place in ten years time (face palm). Oh for a little forethought.
‘Pi says:
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 4:53 pm
BW: “I would not for a nanosecond believe a single official statistic from China.”
Data doesn’t matter. Got it.
….’
——————-
Of course data matters. Sarcasm is wasted here, I am afraid.
I suggest you listen to the Zeihan links I have posted. And take note about the difference between ‘data’ and ‘official statistics from China’.
If you prefer something a tad more nuanced:
https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/how-reliable-are-chinas-statistics/
We might let all youse feckless and hapless gas and coal burners have some of our surplus cheap renewable energy.
If you play nice.
Cronus @ #1918 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 4:59 pm
Pocock should have some sway amongst the rugby fans in Queensland …?
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 3:23 pm
Wherever sprocket goes , Ven is sure to follow.
”
Lars
But where will I be without you? You keep my the grey cells busy. 🙂
Finally we’ve got some heavy hitters about to set foot in Canberra who will overpower the fossil fuel cartel members sitting in the Lib and Lab party rooms.
Ted O’Brien appointed as shadow energy spokesperson is a signal from the Libs that the parliamentary fossil fuel cartel has been weakened.
Boerwar says:
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 3:33 pm
There is a pattern, is there not?
“Think hard, Johnson says. Come up with something. So their latest brainwave is to target an imaginary Waitrose woman. You can see why, as under Johnson the Tories have a “huge” woman problem, says Patrick English of YouGov. Forty-five per cent of women back Labour, only 29% the Conservatives.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/06/boris-johnson-tory-cult
I think the best thing for England would be for Johnson to pull the nuclear option. This would allow the massive clean out of Johnson and his cabal. Accordingly therefore, Johnson will do the opposite and fight to the bitter end leaving England worse off.
”
Voodoo Bluessays:
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 3:38 pm
@ Ven
I would say Lindsay is more analogous to Essex than it is to the red wall seats.
Essentially Essex is overspill from the East end of London that went Tory under Thatcher partially returned to Labour under Blair but once he left became rock solid Tory..
”
Thanks VB for correcting me.
But my point was that Lindsay was permanently lost for ALP (or became ‘rock solid Tory ‘ although Wranslide and Rex beg to differ.
As Sprocket opined as long as it is solid base for Tradies, it is lost for ALP. Nothing structural about it.
Australia bullies China?
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2022/06/06/china-australia-fighter-jet/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020220606
”
Watermelonsays:
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 3:53 pm
Bludging could you please accompany your posts with a glossary of terms so that the casual reader can decipher wtf you’re talking about?
”
LOL. 🙂
Boerwar says:
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 4:03 pm
“I note that in the reporting on Albanese’s visit to Indonesia that no prime minister has visited Indonesia since 2019.
Indonesia is arguably far more important to Australia’s long term future than Australia.
Another Morrison ‘gift’.”
After all, how could 300 million people to our immediate north be of any benefit to us? What a dolt Morrison was, politically, economically and militarily.
”
Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 4:09 pm
Boerwar @ #1882 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 2:03 pm
I note that in the reporting on Albanese’s visit to Indonesia that no prime minister has visited Indonesia since 2019.
Indonesia is arguably far more important to Australia’s long term future than Australia.
Another Morrison ‘gift’.
Knowing Morrison, he probably considered it visiting, every time he flew over it.
”
I read that After AUKUS deal and UN talkfest in September 2021, Morrison wanted to meet President Joko on his way back home.
Reportedly Widodo was not interested at all because of AUKUS deal and Morrison flew over Indonesia.
Cronus
Yep. I should have written ‘Indonesia is arguably far more important to Australia’s long term future than the US.’
”Ted O’Brien appointed as shadow energy spokesperson is a signal from the Libs that the parliamentary fossil fuel cartel has been weakened.”
He’s an advocate of nuclear energy. He’s also a former Chairman of the Australian Republican movement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_O'Brien_(Australian_politician)
BW
Guessing but I don’t think so as Google appeared to have raised the white flag.
The contempt stuff is interesting but I doubt it will amount to much
Rex
‘Finally we’ve got some heavy hitters about to set foot in Canberra who will overpower the fossil fuel cartel members sitting in the Lib and Lab party rooms.’
Who and how?
Shellbell
Thanks. Did the judgement turn on failing to act once alerted to a problem?
Steve777 @ #1927 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 5:13 pm
When I read that Australia is a “little bully” it comes across as either a bit of gas lighting or “look what you’ve made me do”. But on reflection could “little bully” be a Chinese cultural reference? In other words, is there an additional message there?
‘the desired statistic’. Love it!
‘…
In providing an obviously faulty statistic for China’s population, it is possible the statistics chief simply made a mistake. My experience with the CCP and PRC suggest this is unlikely: its apparatchiks tend toward the punctilious. It is more likely there was some confusion as to the desired statistic and the director attempted to paper over it.
…’
https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/how-reliable-are-chinas-statistics/
Re Boerwar at 4.58 pm and Covid deaths in PRC
Estimate by global health metrics experts for Covid deaths in Hubei until end 2021 (i.e. pre-Omicron) is a range from 5,700 to 15,500. See p 1527 at:
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821%2902796-3
Those figures don’t count deaths in 2022 which could be significantly higher (as in Australia).
Covid deaths in Belarus to end 2021 estimated at 85,600. The reality might be that Covid deaths in PRC are still even now well below total in Belarus, but Omicron is likely to increase deaths in PRC a lot.
On official figures, per capita death rate in Taiwan now 123 per million and rising sharply (124 deaths yesterday). Hong Kong now worst in Asia officially (1233 per million). New Zealand (236) has just exceeded Singapore (235). Australia now 336. South Korea 472 but not rising as fast as Australia. The best EU country is Finland, officially at 833 (but health experts say that is understated; see p 1521 at above link).
Ultimately it will be hard for PRC to hide deaths demographically. Putin hasn’t managed it. Estimate for actual Covid deaths in Russia to end 2021 is just over one million (officially now “only” 380,000).
For an early article on fake Russian Covid death figures see:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8013319/pdf/SIGN-18-16.pdf
LR
The message is quite clear: ‘GAGF’.
DrD
Thanks. China’s official population figures are, as who might say, rubbery. The question in your post is, ‘When might ‘ultimately’ actually happen?
no larz kieth pit also backed neucliar bermingham will becontradicted by dutton and haistey on foreign affairs dont think hill have any influence should of put james paterson in foreign afairs unles dutton considers it a secondary position which is evidence buy him not mentioning it in his pres conference other move was duniam geting environment plus foristry
Steve777 says:
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 5:13 pm
Australia bullies China?
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2022/06/06/china-australia-fighter-jet/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020220606
Very very poor form by China, not to mention potentially catastrophic. This is the sort of intemperate action that precipitates wars.
This are grim for the once proud Liberal Party in WA, now edging closer to the knackery…
Michael Bennet
WA reporter
Jun 6, 2022 – 2.35pm
Nigel Satterley calls them “happy clappers” – the “offbeat religious groups” he believes are taking control of the Liberal Party and costing it votes, particularly among women.
In the property magnate’s home state of Western Australia, where the Liberals were decimated at the federal election, he says the party failed to curb the power of a faction, dubbed “the clan”, whose members include conservative Christian MPs.
Satterley, a Rich Lister and Liberal Party member, is so dismayed he thinks the Liberals could become a spent force in WA as its base and the business community turn elsewhere.
“I’ve been on this case since 2017 and, basically, there’s been no changes, they had a review after the state election wipeout and nothing’s changed, the clan is still in full control,” he tells The Australian Financial Review.
“The business community will give no money to the WA Liberal head office because it’s controlled by the clan and friends of the clan.
“If there’s no changes quickly, in six months, there’ll be a new conservative party start up … that will become the mainstream for good Liberal people to consider voting for.
“And you can leave the happy clappers – Globalheart Church and Kingdomcity – and the clan, which will be one Liberal Party where whatever they stand for no one knows.”
Asked if he’d set up a new party, the Satterley Property Group founder says: “I’ve got a business to run, I won’t be leading it, but there will be some good people they can go to.”
https://www.afr.com/politics/the-clan-is-still-in-full-control-why-the-liberals-lost-wa-20220603-p5aqzh
BW
That appears to be part of it along with asserting various defences and then abandoning them all.
Mr Barilaro gave evidence “at the BP service station in Edgecliff and at Woolworths Double Bay he experienced distressing incidents…”
Seeing their prices there could have had that effect.
It is on like Donkey Kong in the UK.
Albo might never meet BoJo as PM.
This analysis from the Schwarz Media politics email is fun to read. I take some of it in the same way as I’d take a Murdoch opinion piece on the Labor front bench, but enjoyable nonetheless.
—————
Liberal leader Peter Dutton announced his new shadow cabinet over the weekend. “We have an incredible depth of talent,” he said, “not just on the front bench, but on the back bench as well.” But the list itself indicates rather the opposite. The Coalition’s ranks have never been so thin. Major portfolios have gone to MPs who in other circumstances would be deemed totally inappropriate, experienced former ministers have been axed, the number of “moderates” remaining is negligible, and Dutton has guaranteed himself further factional strife in the future by cutting key Morrison supporters out of the major portfolios. Alex Hawke is out entirely, and Stuart Robert has been relegated to shadow assistant treasurer. Dutton boasted of his shadow cabinet’s diversity on RN Breakfast this morning, citing the fact that, of 24 members, 10 are women. It’s telling that Dutton thinks this indicates some kind of equality – it is a higher proportion than the Coalition’s overall representation of women! But usually when people speak of diversity they are referring to other things too. Not Dutton. His shadow ministry is 100 per cent white.
”
B.S. Fairmansays:
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 5:41 pm
It is on like Donkey Kong in the UK.
Albo might never meet BoJo as PM.
”
What was reportedly said by Albanese spokesperson after he had talks with BOJO on his way to QUAD?
“THEY HAD FRANK DISCUSSION “.
I can see the LNP withdrawing to safe ground in Queensland, and letting the rest of the party of Menzies ‘wither quickly like grass and wilt like tender plants’…
The Happy Clappers will appreciate that quote, Psalm 37.
Cronus @ #1942 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 5:32 pm
I just read a story that the Chinese fighter jets menaced a Canadian airplane doing reconnaissance and maritime surveillance over international waters as well.
Also, from the article China is taking a very belligerent stance towards Australia by expressing itself very offensively in the following way:
It’s obvious to me that China has calculated that it now possesses strategic military dominance over Australia (thanks, Scott Morrison for nothing, literally) and it is moving into an antagonistic phase.
And I honestly don’t know where China gets off making the following sort of demand of Australia, when they haven’t reciprocated in kind:
Beijing also took aim at the new Albanese government, calling on Canberra to take “actual actions” in improving China-Australia relations.