Honeymoon polling and state by-election news

The first embers of polling since the election record strong support for the new Prime Minister and his agenda.

US pollster Morning Consult, which conducts monthly international polling on world leaders’ domestic personal ratings, has found Anthony Albanese with an approval rating of 51% and a disapproval rating of 25%. Its final result for Scott Morrison was 40% approval and 54% disapproval. The poll was conducted May 23 to 31 from a sample of 3770.

Essential Research published its usual fortnightly poll this week, which had nothing to offer on voting intention or leadership ratings, although it did find that 23% rated themselves more likely to vote Coalition with Peter Dutton as leader compared with 27% less likely. Questions on attitudes to Labor policies found 70% support for increasing the minimum wage and 69% support for a federal Independent Commission Against Corruption, with only 9% opposed in each case. Fifty-two per cent felt Labor should “look for opportunities to rebuild relations” with China, with only 19% favouring a more confrontational position and 12% favouring the current set of policies. Support for the Uluru statement was found to have increased significantly since November 2017, with 53% supporting an indigenous voice to parliament in the constitution.

Some notable state news that got lost in the federal election rush:

• A by-election will be held on June 18 for the Queensland state seat of Callide after its Liberal National Party member, Colin Boyce, moved to federal politics as the Nationals member for Flynn. This is a very safe rural conservative seat, but Labor has nonetheless endorsed Bronwyn Dendle to run against Bryson Head of the LNP, a 26-year-old mining industry geologist. Also in the field are candidates of One Nation, Katter’s Australian Party, Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice.

• The by-election to replace Vickie Chapman in the safe Liberal seat of Bragg in South Australia has been set for July 2. The ABC reports four nominees for the Liberal preselection: Jack Batty, adviser to the Australian High Commissioner in London; Sandy Biar, national director of the Australian Republic Movement and public affairs officer with the army; and Melissa Jones, a law firm director; and Cara Miller, former co-owner of a radiology business.

• Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff has announced he will introduce legislation this year to increase the size of the state’s House of Assembly from 25 seats to 35, reversing a change made in 1998. The move has the support of the Liberals, Labor and the Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,071 comments on “Honeymoon polling and state by-election news”

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  1. BW, sure, there’s no point to overthink it. It just feels like “little bully” carries an additional insult, like “little prick”.

  2. I hadn’t realised thar the UK fixed term legislation has been repealed.
    Boris can ask for a dissolution but would ER grant one?- after 70 years might she finally need to do something?

  3. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-06/boris-johnson-will-face-vote-of-no-confidence-tories/101130188

    “Prime Minister Boris Johnson will face a vote of no confidence on Monday evening local time, the Conservative Party has confirmed.

    Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee that represents the Tory parliamentary rank and file to the party leader, confirmed the vote in a note to Conservative MPs.

    “The threshold of 15 per cent [54] of the parliamentary party seeking a vote of confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party has been exceeded,” he wrote.

    “In accordance with the rules, a ballot will be held between 1800 and 2000 today Monday 6th June [3am to 5am Tuesday AEST] — details to be confirmed. The votes will be counted immediately afterwards. An announcement will be made at a time to be advised.”

  4. In my humble opinion, China is trying to take advantage of global instability at present. They know Brexit was a strategic mistake by Britain and now the fallout from that is hitting home, plus the Ukraine-Russia War factoring itself into the equation, I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if China attacks Taiwan from the air and the sea in order to give President Biden wars on two fronts and a rampant and lawless Republican Party in the US, to deal with.

  5. Late Riser @ #1951 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 5:50 pm

    BW, sure, there’s no point to overthink it. It just feels like “little bully” carries an additional insult, like “little prick”.

    Yes, the ‘little’ is more pejorative than ‘bully’. It’s an attempt to diminish our stature on the world stage.

  6. We have another Defamation case to watch!

    Pauline Hanson sent a “spiteful” and “malicious” text message to the wife of former One Nation senator Brian Burston claiming that he considered her to be an “old bag” and was “infatuated” with one of his staff members, a court has heard.

    A defamation trial brought by Burston against Hanson began in the federal court on Monday over a series of what he argues are allegations of sexual harassment made against him on social media, in interviews and in a text to his wife, Rosalyn.

    In the text, sent in February 2019, Hanson claimed Burston, a One Nation senator from 2016 until 2018 when he sensationally quit the party, was being “investigated for sexual harassment” against one of his former staffers, and was “infatuated” with another.

    “You won’t get to see the evidence [it’s] all on text from him to her because it will be a closed decision and she will get her pay out and [be] gagged,” Hanson wrote in the text.

    “They can’t all be wrong.”

    In the same message, Hanson also made what Burston’s barrister, Bruce McClintock SC, described as “intrinsically malicious”, “mean and spiteful” comments about what she claimed were the former senator’s feelings about his wife.

    “He considers you to be nothing but a winging (sic) old bag turning out to be just like your mother who he wants to drop dead,” she wrote.

    “He tells his staff he owns your home. Wake up to him. I have nothing to gain. I just believe you deserve to be treated with a bit more respect.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/06/defamation-trial-hears-malicious-text-message-pauline-hanson-sent-former-senators-wife

  7. Watching Albo’s presser in Indonesia, he is growing into the job. Which is good, because he has several terms in the bag.

  8. The vote of no confidence is the Conservative Party room; not the British House of Commons. It will be another Tory that replaces him if they give him the flick.

    If Bojo gets anything less than overwhelming approval he is on borrowed time. Since at least 15% of the backbench has said Nope to him already to have a meeting of 1922 committee called, then we can suppose that he has already lost that much.
    If he comes out with a 65% or 70% vote of No to the no confidence motion then the vultures will circle pretty fast. This is due to the fact that in theory the Cabinet and outer ministry have to support the leader. None have so far resigned but they will if there is a close enough vote.

  9. sprocket_ @ #1962 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 6:04 pm

    Watching Albo’s presser in Indonesia, he is growing into the job. Which is good, because he has several terms in the bag.

    A small point, but his glasses keep falling down his nose and it makes him look goofy when they do. I think he needs to buy some little adhesive pads or get them refitted closer to his head.

  10. Boris Johnson is to face a vote of no confidence on Monday evening after the threshold of 54 letters from Conservative MPs seeking his departure was reached.

    In a statement Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee that represents backbench Tories, said the threshold of 15% of MPs seeking a confidence vote, numbering 54, “has been exceeded”.

    “In accordance with the rules, a ballot will be held between 1800 and 2000 today, Monday 6 June,” it continued. “The votes will be counted immediately afterwards. An announcement will be made at a time to be advised. Arrangements for the announcement will be released later today.”

    To stay in office, Johnson needs to win the support of at least 50% of all Tory MPs plus one, totalling 180. If he does win he is theoretically safe from such a challenge for a year – although the rules can be changed.

    Asked about this on Monday, Brady confirmed to reporters that this was the case: “Technically it’s possible for rules to be changed but the rule at present is there would be a period of grace.”

    Brady would have told No 10 in advance of the announcement and liaised over the timing of any vote. The fact it is taking place so quickly is likely to be the choice of Downing Street, hopeful that disparate groups of rebels will be unable to coordinate or campaign.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/06/boris-johnson-face-confidence-vote-scores-tory-mps-call-on-him-to-go

  11. I particulary liked this quote from the ABC article on Boris’ woes

    “He has delivered on COVID recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made. We must now focus on economic growth,” Ms Truss said on Twitter.

    Now does that sound like anyone else? – maybe Boris need to post some photos in high vis cooking curries and rugby tackling the under 11s to cement his position.

    Would be a shame to see him go out in a common leadership spill, much better a resounding election defeat.

    As an aside, I am grateful to SfM to introducing me to the joys of Sri Lankan curries as have made 2 in the past week and just great – even the chicken was cooked.

  12. C@tmomma @ #1950 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 3:49 pm

    Cronus @ #1942 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 5:32 pm

    Steve777 says:
    Monday, June 6, 2022 at 5:13 pm
    Australia bullies China?
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2022/06/06/china-australia-fighter-jet/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020220606

    Very very poor form by China, not to mention potentially catastrophic. This is the sort of intemperate action that precipitates wars.

    I just read a story that the Chinese fighter jets menaced a Canadian airplane doing reconnaissance and maritime surveillance over international waters as well.

    Also, from the article China is taking a very belligerent stance towards Australia by expressing itself very offensively in the following way:

    “At least one thing is clear: No one can act as Washington’s ‘goon’ while making a fortune from China. It just doesn’t work that way,” it said.

    It’s obvious to me that China has calculated that it now possesses strategic military dominance over Australia (thanks, Scott Morrison for nothing, literally) and it is moving into an antagonistic phase.

    And I honestly don’t know where China gets off making the following sort of demand of Australia, when they haven’t reciprocated in kind:

    Beijing also took aim at the new Albanese government, calling on Canberra to take “actual actions” in improving China-Australia relations.

    I’m pretty sure that the US and others also play these games.

  13. The grace period is only as good as the rules that put it in place. Instead of a no confidence motion if he is in the grace period they simply have a vote to suspend the grace period rule, which by default would be a no confidence vote.

    A bit like how the leadership rules in the ALP could be subverted if more than 50% of the caucus wanted a change but not the required 75%. For example, caucus would just vote to oppose everything that the government tried to bring up in the party room.


  14. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, June 6, 2022 at 6:17 pm
    Confessions @ #1968 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 6:16 pm

    ajm @ #1966 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 6:11 pm

    It’s 6:10pm and still waiting for the report on Albo in Jakarta on Channel 7 Brisbane news.

    It was the second item on Ch9 news Sydney. Behind a payrise for frontline Health workers.

    Channel 7 has always been the laggard in support for Labor.

    As I said earlier Old habits die hard. Channel 7 was ready to broadcast Joyce because he got ‘Shadow Veterans affairs ‘ portfolio but are not willing to show an important foreign visit of PM Albanese.

  15. Max

    “ Dutton boasted of his shadow cabinet’s diversity on RN Breakfast this morning, citing the fact that, of 24 members, 10 are women. It’s telling that Dutton thinks this indicates some kind of equality – it is a higher proportion than the Coalition’s overall representation of women! ”

    This is a problem that Dutton, Lib men and even Lib women misunderstand. It’s not just about the numbers of Lib women. After all, frankly, many Lib women are little different from the men. The numbers are only a start, it is about the values that these women hold. If the values of Lib women (often brought up in paternalistic households and communities) don’t equate with those of broader society, they’ll be just as ineffective and out of touch.

  16. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1973 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 6:22 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1950 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 3:49 pm

    Cronus @ #1942 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 5:32 pm

    Steve777 says:
    Monday, June 6, 2022 at 5:13 pm
    Australia bullies China?
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2022/06/06/china-australia-fighter-jet/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020220606

    Very very poor form by China, not to mention potentially catastrophic. This is the sort of intemperate action that precipitates wars.

    I just read a story that the Chinese fighter jets menaced a Canadian airplane doing reconnaissance and maritime surveillance over international waters as well.

    Also, from the article China is taking a very belligerent stance towards Australia by expressing itself very offensively in the following way:

    “At least one thing is clear: No one can act as Washington’s ‘goon’ while making a fortune from China. It just doesn’t work that way,” it said.

    It’s obvious to me that China has calculated that it now possesses strategic military dominance over Australia (thanks, Scott Morrison for nothing, literally) and it is moving into an antagonistic phase.

    And I honestly don’t know where China gets off making the following sort of demand of Australia, when they haven’t reciprocated in kind:

    Beijing also took aim at the new Albanese government, calling on Canberra to take “actual actions” in improving China-Australia relations.

    I’m pretty sure that the US and others also play these games.

    Not at the moment they’re not and that’s the point. Also, it’s a false equivalence to use that argument to attempt to absolve China of blame.

  17. C@T

    “ And I honestly don’t know where China gets off making the following sort of demand of Australia, when they haven’t reciprocated in kind:
    Beijing also took aim at the new Albanese government, calling on Canberra to take “actual actions” in improving China-Australia relations.”

    Agreed. Actions speak louder than words and the actions of China’s pilots were deliberate, aggressive and dangerous. Re-engagement with China will be a long, slow process.

  18. Cronus @ #1977 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 4:39 pm

    Max

    “ Dutton boasted of his shadow cabinet’s diversity on RN Breakfast this morning, citing the fact that, of 24 members, 10 are women. It’s telling that Dutton thinks this indicates some kind of equality – it is a higher proportion than the Coalition’s overall representation of women! ”

    This is a problem that Dutton, Lib men and even Lib women misunderstand. It’s not just about the numbers of Lib women. After all, frankly, many Lib women are little different from the men. The numbers are only a start, it is about the values that these women hold. If the values of Lib women (often brought up in paternalistic households and communities) don’t equate with those of broader society, they’ll be just as ineffective and out of touch.

    The other thing with the Shadow Cabinet they seem to just mirror Labor female Ministers in many cases.

  19. Cronus @ #1977 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 6:39 pm

    Max

    “ Dutton boasted of his shadow cabinet’s diversity on RN Breakfast this morning, citing the fact that, of 24 members, 10 are women. It’s telling that Dutton thinks this indicates some kind of equality – it is a higher proportion than the Coalition’s overall representation of women! ”

    This is a problem that Dutton, Lib men and even Lib women misunderstand. It’s not just about the numbers of Lib women. After all, frankly, many Lib women are little different from the men. The numbers are only a start, it is about the values that these women hold. If the values of Lib women (often brought up in paternalistic households and communities) don’t equate with those of broader society, they’ll be just as ineffective and out of touch.

    You’ve just got to look at a few of them. Jane Hume, Karen Andrews, Michaelia Cash, Sarah Macdonald. All privileged white women. Where’s the ‘diversity’ in that? Also, Dutton is yet to learn that just because he says something, doesn’t make it so. He’s not in government anymore and it looks to me from the way he is behaving that he is finding it hard to adjust to that fact.

  20. Cronus @ #1980 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 6:43 pm

    C@T

    “ And I honestly don’t know where China gets off making the following sort of demand of Australia, when they haven’t reciprocated in kind:
    Beijing also took aim at the new Albanese government, calling on Canberra to take “actual actions” in improving China-Australia relations.”

    Agreed. Actions speak louder than words and the actions of China’s pilots were deliberate, aggressive and dangerous. Re-engagement with China will be a long, slow process.

    I was thinking about the Trade sanctions that China has thus far refused to lift as well. You know, ‘actual actions’.

  21. You might think the ADF would hold off on such flights given the inevitable provocation they cause given the election? It was in the day or so after the election wasn’t it? Seriously some nice moves by the establishment to lock in a bit of a confrontation to lock in the new Govt to the existing narrative. Worked nicely.

    The establishment couldn’t be that sophisticated could they?

  22. C@tmomma @ #1979 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 4:42 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1973 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 6:22 pm


    Not at the moment they’re not and that’s the point. Also, it’s a false equivalence to use that argument to attempt to absolve China of blame.

    And you know this.

    How?

    Absolving no one.

    It’s just bullshit marcho games that we normally never hear about until one side or the other fucks up and it might become news.

  23. If you are a female Liberal and didn’t make the shadow ministry, you must be either lacking in talent or really disliked by Dutton. Or both.

  24. Is there a list of the shadow ministry? None of the news outlets that I’ve seen have actually reported who they are outside the big names (Tudge, Taylor and Payne missing out etc).

  25. Evening all. I must agree with others that the Chinese Air Force actions to Australian aircraft are quite intimidatory, and the language of their government quite insulting.

    On Richard Marles:
    “Marles not ruling out ‘son of Collins’ to bridge Australia’s submarine gap
    He has very clearly left the door open to the option of Australia taking up a “son of Collins” to bridge the gap between the current ageing Collins class submarines and the nuclear-powered submarines that may be available around the 2040s.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/jun/06/australia-news-live-updates-albanese-dutton-indonesia-wong-china-security-aged-care-economy?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-629dafd58f084d9060b75950#block-629dafd58f084d9060b75950

    Aargh! Go and talk to the Chief of Navy for a briefing please Richard! Any option that involves designing a new sub adds five years to the delivery time. So “Son of Collins” was the right idea a decade ago, but it is the wrong idea now. We don’t have time to stuff around developing new designs. We need to build an “off the shelf” design, locally, as soon as possible. That is true whether we build a nuclear or conventional boat.

    If conventional the fastest solution now would be to adopt the German design for a large conventional sub just delivered to Singapore. Ironically, they designed it from the concept they submitted for Sea 1000 we rejected. TKM completed the design, sold the idea to Singapore and have built the first two boats in the time we took to stuff around with Naval Group achieving nothing.

    That being said, if the Chief of Navy thinks we ought to be building nuclear boats ASAP, then I don’t think Richard Marles’ qualifications as a solicitor should make him think he knows better than Admiral Noonan.

    Talk of a “son of Collins” design to “save time” is nonsense when the needed upgrade of ASC is not even in the current budget, only acquiring the land. There is two or three years of yard construction work to do before sub construction can even start. That gives us time to recruit the sub construction workforce in the mean time.

    Albo has grown into the PM role superbly since his victory. Hopefully Marles will grow into being Defence Minister. Days of Defence being an impressive sounding portfolio you could hide an ignorant minister in are long gone. Marles needs to hire a good defense advisor fast. Talk to Rex Patrick.

  26. Actually being a female Liberal Member and missing out on this shadow Cabinet could be a positive to be highlighted on your CV.

  27. until dutton defence was usually a portfoleo the prime minister would put a weakeror low profile ministerin eg Abbott first giving it to invisible David johnston turnbullto payne Howard to Robbert hill morrison renalds marles is a step up from duton if mike kelley was still arround would be labors best cchoice as a x solgier former edan monarow mp or peter khalill found a full list of shadow ministry on the dayley mail haistey may do okay in defence

  28. My take on recent Chinese actions are that they see Albo and Penny Wong suddenly being effective for Australias interests and are trying to take them down a peg

  29. I think the chances of Putin going to Bali are zero.

    If he survived the trip, he would meet up with SAM on the way back …

  30. I can see the LNP withdrawing to safe ground in Queensland, and letting the rest of the party of Menzies ‘wither quickly like grass and wilt like tender plants’…

    I was actually expecting more politicians to be in their cabinet from Queensland considering the numbers they have up there in seats. Its very underrated fact but despite the number of MP’s they have in Queensland their talent pool there is pretty shithouse.

  31. Wranslide @ #1984 Monday, June 6th, 2022 – 6:49 pm

    You might think the ADF would hold off on such flights given the inevitable provocation they cause given the election? It was in the day or so after the election wasn’t it? Seriously some nice moves by the establishment to lock in a bit of a confrontation to lock in the new Govt to the existing narrative. Worked nicely.

    The establishment couldn’t be that sophisticated could they?

    Hmm, just maybe the flights had already been planned ages ago? Strange concept to consider, I know, much more sexy to go with some sort of nefarious political bs instead. 🙄

  32. Newton Peter Khalil really? Marles chose his bag so you have to think he has something about him in the area. He has ambitions so he won’t want to stuff it up although I don’t think he will get there.

    Australia’s defence policy is a shambles. AUKUS for some subs in 50 years reliant on tech that by then will be how old? AUKUS is sadly an example where bipartisanship in defence/foreign policy does not always serve our nation well

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