Honeymoon polling and state by-election news

The first embers of polling since the election record strong support for the new Prime Minister and his agenda.

US pollster Morning Consult, which conducts monthly international polling on world leaders’ domestic personal ratings, has found Anthony Albanese with an approval rating of 51% and a disapproval rating of 25%. Its final result for Scott Morrison was 40% approval and 54% disapproval. The poll was conducted May 23 to 31 from a sample of 3770.

Essential Research published its usual fortnightly poll this week, which had nothing to offer on voting intention or leadership ratings, although it did find that 23% rated themselves more likely to vote Coalition with Peter Dutton as leader compared with 27% less likely. Questions on attitudes to Labor policies found 70% support for increasing the minimum wage and 69% support for a federal Independent Commission Against Corruption, with only 9% opposed in each case. Fifty-two per cent felt Labor should “look for opportunities to rebuild relations” with China, with only 19% favouring a more confrontational position and 12% favouring the current set of policies. Support for the Uluru statement was found to have increased significantly since November 2017, with 53% supporting an indigenous voice to parliament in the constitution.

Some notable state news that got lost in the federal election rush:

• A by-election will be held on June 18 for the Queensland state seat of Callide after its Liberal National Party member, Colin Boyce, moved to federal politics as the Nationals member for Flynn. This is a very safe rural conservative seat, but Labor has nonetheless endorsed Bronwyn Dendle to run against Bryson Head of the LNP, a 26-year-old mining industry geologist. Also in the field are candidates of One Nation, Katter’s Australian Party, Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice.

• The by-election to replace Vickie Chapman in the safe Liberal seat of Bragg in South Australia has been set for July 2. The ABC reports four nominees for the Liberal preselection: Jack Batty, adviser to the Australian High Commissioner in London; Sandy Biar, national director of the Australian Republic Movement and public affairs officer with the army; and Melissa Jones, a law firm director; and Cara Miller, former co-owner of a radiology business.

• Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff has announced he will introduce legislation this year to increase the size of the state’s House of Assembly from 25 seats to 35, reversing a change made in 1998. The move has the support of the Liberals, Labor and the Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,071 comments on “Honeymoon polling and state by-election news”

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  1. Help me please on Julie Bishop’s accomplishments as foreign minister. All I can recall is her jogging with Boris Johnson, sitting at the tennis with Anna Wintour, and something about red shoes, which is very superficial of me.


  2. nathsays:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:23 am
    Marise Payne’s term was no doubt impact by the pandemic and not having a good relationship with Morrison. Things might have been different otherwise.

    Whenever Payne gave Press Conferences, which were few and far inbetween, her face was always very serious with no joy in being representative of this country on world stage. I wonder what could have been the reason for that. Also, she gave very few Press Conferences beside Morrison.

    I also noticed one more thing. Being part of a Power couple, she very rarely was seen in public with her husband.

  3. Joe Biden is going hammer and tongs on prime time TV on trying to get Congress to take action on guns, particularly assault weapons.

  4. BK says:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:29 am
    Ohio is poised to allow teachers and other school employees to forgo hundreds of hours of training normally needed to carry a gun at work under a bill awaiting the governor’s signature.
    ____________
    “What could POSSIBLY go wrong?”

    The failure of logic is bewildering yet unsurprising. A nation specialising in self-harm.

  5. The gas / energy crisis was a long time in the making but really exploded after the election. If the former Government knew what was about to break they and their media allies kept it well hidden while they banged on about trans people in sport or whatever. Or they didn’t know, which would have been grossly incompetent.

  6. Just asking for a friend…. if profitable gas companies can jack their prices up to the domestic market due to high global prices caused by supply/demand issues, why cant state and federal governments jack up their tax in the short term and distribute it households struggling with the rising costs? The tax will be on total profits (including those made from from exports), so it shouldnt impact significantly on local retail prices. And if the AFR is right, these global conditions are set to double Santos and Woodsides profits – the increase in tax should be easily absorbed. If not, nationalise the b@stards. They are a clear and present threat to the national interest.

  7. While China makes Pacific islands tour, US Coast Guard is already on patrol

    (CNN) As China’s foreign minister began a Pacific islands tour to promote economic and security cooperation with Beijing, the smallest of the US government’s armed services was already on the scene, reinforcing Washington’s longstanding commitment to the region.

    Reacting to a request from the Solomon Islands, the first stop in Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s 10-day regional diplomatic tour, the US Coast Guard diverted its cutter Myrtle Hazard to patrol the island nation’s exclusive economic zone after a Solomons police vessel needed repairs.

    The US cutter “helped to fill the operational presence needed by conducting maritime surveillance to deter illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing in the northern Solomon Islands,” a Coast Guard press release said.

    Wang Yi defended China’s intentions during the media briefing in Fiji on Monday..

    “Don’t be too anxious and don’t be too nervous, because the common development and prosperity of China and all the other developing countries would only mean great harmony, greater justice and greater progress of the whole world,” he said.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/02/asia/us-coast-guard-pacific-islands-china-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

  8. It’s been a fine speech from Biden, but I have faith in the Republican party to prevent any of the proposed actions to get up.

  9. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:37 am
    “Surely Dutton will honour his Deputy’s right to the Shadow Treasury, and dismiss out of hand the failed energy minister Angus Taylor’s claim for the job?
    An early test for Dutton’s leadership ..”

    IMHO, certain positions require gravitas. Due to her significant political credibility failures, I’m dubious as to whether Ley naturally displays gravitas.

  10. Ohio is poised to allow teachers and other school employees to forgo hundreds of hours of training normally needed to carry a gun at work under a bill awaiting the governor’s signature.

    Well, considering the chances of any gun restriction legislation and considering how long that would take to actually make a difference to the number of guns in the system…. it kinda makes some sense. So long as it doesnt supplant the big picture long term solutions.

  11. This is an interesting story about USA and South Korea cooperating on nuclear technology… of a type very similar to that which could be used to build reactors of a type suitable for SSNs
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/u-s-and-south-korean-cooperation-on-nuclear-technology-positive-sign-for-k-ssn/

    South Korea has developed its own quite efficient domestic submarine construction industry starting with German assistance in the time since Australia started building the Collins class and then disastrously did nothing for twenty years. They are quite cost efficient too.

    It might pay Richard Marles to keep tabs on what they do.

    Have a good day all.

  12. Never saw any sign Bishop was any good at doing anything but fund-raising from Liberal donors and attending the polo.

    All Ministers complain when funding is cut to their area. Bishop complaining about foreign aid being cut doesn’t make her good at the gig.

    Sure, it can’t help when buffoons like Morrison and Dutton and Melissa Price are out there demonstrating your government’s lack of respect for other countries, but I really can’t recall an achievement in her time in office or a relationship strengthened, while I could name several that got worse.

    I will also always remember that the Coalition attacked the Gillard government bid for a UN security council seat but Bishop was happy to use the seat for grandstanding and photo ops once in government.

    (I also remember Tony Abbott bashing Gillard for going to New York for the UN pitch, saying she should be going to Jakarta to see SBY, only for Gillard to sit next to SBY at the UN in New York what with the fact he was attending the UN too… imagine if Albanese in opposition had said something so bone headed about foreign affairs and the media screaming he’s not across his brief enough to be PM, and the complete free pass given to Abbott. Still makes my blood boil)


  13. nathsays:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:07 am
    C@tmomma says:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:03 am

    nath @ #68 Friday, June 3rd, 2022 – 9:02 am

    How good is Penny Wong? Already done more in Foreign Relations than the whole last term of government.

    And the one before and the one before that.
    _______
    Julie Bishop was a good Foreign Minister.

    As a titbit
    Julie Bishop appeared to have had good personal relationship with ex-Foreign Minister Ms. Sushma Swaraj of India. The reason I am saying it is because I saw a photo where Swaraj put her arms around Bishop while Bishop was sitting. And no Swaraj was not gay.


  14. sprocket_says:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:30 am
    The Morrison/Dutton/Payne period has been dreadful for Australia’s standing in our region.

    Sucking up to Trump, ignoring and insulting the Pacific, megaphone diplomacy with China, being outcast at COP and undermining action on Climate Change, pissing off the French over submarines….

    And No relationship worth mentioning with another European economic Super power i.e. Germany, causing lot of anxiety in our neighborhood with AUKUS. For example, Indonesian President didn’t want to meet Morrison after AUKUS deal was signed.

  15. ‘dave says:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:44 am

    While China makes Pacific islands tour, US Coast Guard is already on patrol

    (CNN) As China’s foreign minister began a Pacific islands tour to promote economic and security cooperation with Beijing, the smallest of the US government’s armed services was already on the scene, reinforcing Washington’s longstanding commitment to the region.

    Reacting to a request from the Solomon Islands, the first stop in Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s 10-day regional diplomatic tour, the US Coast Guard diverted its cutter Myrtle Hazard to patrol the island nation’s exclusive economic zone after a Solomons police vessel needed repairs.

    The US cutter “helped to fill the operational presence needed by conducting maritime surveillance to deter illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing in the northern Solomon Islands,” a Coast Guard press release said.

    Wang Yi defended China’s intentions during the media briefing in Fiji on Monday..

    “Don’t be too anxious and don’t be too nervous, because the common development and prosperity of China and all the other developing countries would only mean great harmony, greater justice and greater progress of the whole world,” he said.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/02/asia/us-coast-guard-pacific-islands-china-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
    ==========================
    I thought the ‘Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere’ concept had already been tried.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_East_Asia_Co-Prosperity_Sphere

  16. There was not complete consensus on the Statement of the Heart, there was a dissenting view and it is ok for Lidia Thorpe and Dorinda Cox to support that view.

    My point is that that people should be aware of how Blackfella politics operates and that it is not to override other Mob’s point of view. Hence why it is not accurate to say that the Greens will block the voice due to their Aboriginal senators, but they will argue the view arguing for treaty and truth telling. I don’t hear Linda Burney being as adamant about how this will play out like some claim here.

    As for Jacinta Price, check the link Catmomma posted above to see why her views are problematic to many Aboriginal people. It is not hypocrisy to point out that Jacinta likes to put down other Aboriginal people, Lidia does not.

    Lots of evidence from Jacinta that she does, and I think it is fair to be critical of her past statements, but yes she does have her supporters.

    There is a lot more support for Lidia’s viewpoints than is acknowledged on this forum from the grassroots. Let’s acknowledge that the debate amongst First Nations people needs to be had amongst themselves and is still ongoing.

    There is conflict between ” the grassroots and those that speak to government” and this has been historical. There are strong views on Aboriginal sovereignty that are very wary of treaty with government due to the colonial injustices.

    Non-Indigenous people need to learn more about how Aboriginal legal and customary systems work as part of conciliation with First Nations. Recognising there are a diversity of opinion between and within mobs.


  17. nathsays:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:37 am
    Sucking up to Trump.

    No doubt. But nothing could replicate the sucking up of Hawke to Reagan.

    Or Blair and Howard sucking upto George Bush Jr.

  18. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #73 Friday, June 3rd, 2022 – 9:09 am

    Freya Stark @ #49 Friday, June 3rd, 2022 – 6:30 am

    When is the shadow ministry being announced? Also, when will there be the first formal poll with voting intentions and approval ratings for both the PM and Dutton?

    It’s not easy when they have so much “talent” to work with.

    I’m sure that Sgt Major Dutton is handpicking his squad by telling the volunteers to step forward and giving them a ceremonial headband and a sip of sake…


  19. Arkysays:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:47 am
    Never saw any sign Bishop was any good at doing anything but fund-raising from Liberal donors and attending the polo.
    ……………
    ……………
    … imagine if Albanese in opposition had said something so bone headed about foreign affairs and the media screaming he’s not across his brief enough to be PM, and the complete free pass given to Abbott. Still makes my blood boil)

    Your blood must be boiling for a long time now. 🙂

  20. zoomster,

    Thorpe’s position is that truth telling and treaty should come before a voice.
    That is a matter of sequencing of the process, not a rejection of any of the components.

  21. ItzaDream @ #101 Friday, June 3rd, 2022 – 7:38 am

    Help me please on Julie Bishop’s accomplishments as foreign minister. All I can recall is her jogging with Boris Johnson, sitting at the tennis with Anna Wintour, and something about red shoes, which is very superficial of me.

    She certainly didn’t have much to work with. 😆

  22. nath says:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:37 am
    Sucking up to Trump.

    No doubt. But nothing could replicate the sucking up of Hawke to Reagan.

    Johnny Howard’s ‘deputy sheriff in Asia’ boast to George W Bush could be a replica

  23. Vensays:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:57 am

    nathsays:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:37 am
    Sucking up to Trump.

    No doubt. But nothing could replicate the sucking up of Hawke to Reagan.

    Or Blair and Howard sucking upto George Bush Jr.

    _________________________________________________________

    The big difference was Hawke looked like a giggling school kid. Cringy stuff.

  24. Cronus @ #104 Friday, June 3rd, 2022 – 7:40 am

    BK says:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:29 am
    Ohio is poised to allow teachers and other school employees to forgo hundreds of hours of training normally needed to carry a gun at work under a bill awaiting the governor’s signature.
    ____________
    “What could POSSIBLY go wrong?”

    The failure of logic is bewildering yet unsurprising. A nation specialising in self-harm.

    How can you come to a sensible solution when you refuse to consider an obvious option?

  25. Challenge for the day:
    Rank the following Foreign Ministers in order of degree of competency, ignoring your partisan leanings.

    Gareth Evans
    Alexander Downer
    Stephen Smith
    Kevin Rudd
    Bob Carr
    Julie Bishop
    Marise Payne
    Penelope Wong

  26. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #126 Friday, June 3rd, 2022 – 10:08 am

    How can you come to a sensible solution when you refuse to consider an obvious option?

    They’ve considered it. The courts have determined that the Constitution rules that option out.

    Because the preamble about “a well-regulated militia” is nothing but meaningless window-dressing. 🙄

  27. Freya Stark @ #128 Friday, June 3rd, 2022 – 10:10 am

    Challenge for the day:
    Rank the following Foreign Ministers in order of degree of competency, ignoring your partisan leanings.

    Gareth Evans
    Alexander Downer
    Stephen Smith
    Kevin Rudd
    Bob Carr
    Julie Bishop
    Marise Payne
    Penelope Wong

    If we’re going all formal, then it’s Penelope Ying-Yen Wong.

  28. Tom @ #120 Friday, June 3rd, 2022 – 8:00 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #73 Friday, June 3rd, 2022 – 9:09 am

    Freya Stark @ #49 Friday, June 3rd, 2022 – 6:30 am

    When is the shadow ministry being announced? Also, when will there be the first formal poll with voting intentions and approval ratings for both the PM and Dutton?

    It’s not easy when they have so much “talent” to work with.

    I’m sure that Sgt Major Dutton is handpicking his squad by telling the volunteers to step forward and giving them a ceremonial headband and a sip of sake…

    What, no dagger?

  29. bakunin @ #122 Friday, June 3rd, 2022 – 8:06 am

    zoomster,

    Thorpe’s position is that truth telling and treaty should come before a voice.
    That is a matter of sequencing of the process, not a rejection of any of the components.

    One problem with that approach is, who do you negotiate a treaty with?

    The voice provides a focus for those negotiations.

  30. A Voice needs to come before a Treaty, to establish who you’re negotiating with.

    A diversity of voices will to lead to poorer outcomes – ‘divide and conquer’.

  31. a r @ #129 Friday, June 3rd, 2022 – 8:13 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #126 Friday, June 3rd, 2022 – 10:08 am

    How can you come to a sensible solution when you refuse to consider an obvious option?

    They’ve considered it. The courts have determined that the Constitution rules that option out.

    Because the preamble about “a well-regulated militia” is nothing but meaningless window-dressing. 🙄

    The courts haven’t ruled out limiting certain types of weapons.

  32. Driving home after the old dog was helped along to a Better Place, I heard a female Democrat on RN despairing about the killing of children, while at the same time vigorously defending gun ownership for self defence and going huntin and shootin, and more importantly noting that Democrats were also funded by the killing of children industry, and anyway, would loose their seats if they dared interfer with gun ownership laws. All she seemed to be able to offer was an increased tightening of the requirements and checks around buying guns.


  33. According to Mike Foley and Nick Toscano, major manufacturers are warning that thousands of local jobs are at risk unless gas is held back from being exported as the Albanese government calls emergency meetings with Queensland’s gas producers and state ministers to address spiking energy prices.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/manufacturers-warn-thousands-of-jobs-at-risk-unless-gas-held-back-from-export-20220602-p5aqlf.html

    Albanese government is mugged by reality.
    If it had been LNP government in power you would expect MSM scrambling to defend the indefensible or bury the story in back pages. Albanese government should not expect any quarter from MSM or Dutton opposition.
    Bandt already demanded all gas production to be stopped. So expect no support from Greens.
    So Albanese government is in uncharted territory and scrambling to do something.
    The Australian people will not blame LNP or Angus Taylor for hiding the situation. They will blame the Albanese government if things go wrong in their lives because of this energy crisis.

  34. US President Biden calls for tougher gun control including raising purchase age limit to 21 and banning sale of assault weapons.


  35. Steelydansays:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 10:06 am
    Vensays:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:57 am

    nathsays:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 9:37 am
    Sucking up to Trump.

    No doubt. But nothing could replicate the sucking up of Hawke to Reagan.

    Or Blair and Howard sucking upto George Bush Jr.

    _________________________________________________________

    The big difference was Hawke looked like a giggling school kid. Cringy stuff.

    How do you know that? Were you into your 20s to notice that kind of stuff or you just making stuff up as usual? 🙂

  36. From 2001 on ABC AM…


    MARK WILLACY: By his own lofty standards it’s been an ordinary week for Australia’s Foreign Minister, Alexander Downer. … with revelations that while attending the Forum for East Asia Latin America Cooperation in Chile, our top man in Foreign Affairs referred to less well off nations as “busted arse countries”. While dismissing the claims as “tittle-tattle” Alexander Downer is not denying that he may have used the offending phrase in private.

    MINISTER ALEXANDER DOWNER: Well you have probably said all sorts of things in private and I have said all sorts of things in private. And all Australians have said all sorts of things in private and I’m not going to canvass any of the things that I’ve said in private, because ipso facto — they’re comments that are made private.

    REPORTER: Are you concerned now that this has got out, that the rumour is going around, that these countries will be offended?

    ALEXANDER DOWNER: Of course not. This is just, this is just gossip and tittle tattle. It’s not a serious issue.

    MARK WILLACY: Far from tittle tattle, Labor warns that Mr Downer’s alleged use of the term “busted arse countries” could cause a deal of diplomatic affront. And always one to stick up for the little guys, the ALP spokesman on foreign affairs Laurie Brereton, is positively mortified.

    LAURIE BRERETON: They now all know that in private Alexander Downer refers to them as the “busted arse countries”. I’ve been told that in private the expression “BAC” was used so often that people were commenting on it as being “boorish behaviour”. It was offensive in Santiago, it is now offensive around our region and quite frankly it is inexcusable.

  37. JAN: “Ohio is poised to allow teachers and other school employees to forgo hundreds of hours of training normally needed to carry a gun at work under a bill awaiting the governor’s signature.

    Well, considering the chances of any gun restriction legislation and considering how long that would take to actually make a difference to the number of guns in the system…. it kinda makes some sense. So long as it doesnt supplant the big picture long term solutions.”

    I guess the problem of the shooter targeting teachers first would arise.

  38. Respected First Nations film maker Rachel Perkins, in her strong statement the other day advocating for a voice to Parliament, respectfully acknowledged dissenting views amongst First Nations people too


  39. Freya Starksays:
    Friday, June 3, 2022 at 10:10 am
    Challenge for the day:
    Rank the following Foreign Ministers in order of degree of competency, ignoring your partisan leanings.

    Gareth Evans
    Alexander Downer
    Stephen Smith
    Kevin Rudd
    Bob Carr
    Julie Bishop
    Marise Payne
    Penelope Wong

    You cannot rank Wong because she just started her innings.

    1. Gareth Evans
    2. Stephen Smith
    3. Kevin Rudd & Julie Bishop
    5. Alexander Downer
    6. Bob Carr
    7. Marise Payne

  40. The long listen

    Skipped ahead to the ~30 minute mark. Gave up after one of the commentators said that mass-shootings are analogous to plane crashes. Couched in a context roughly like “mass shootings will always happen and there’s no way to change that, but they probably won’t happen to you, so best to just not even think/talk about it; just like plane crashes”.

    One of those things is always a deliberate act that a person chooses to do, the other is almost always random bad luck (possibly amplified by incompetence/pilot error, but only very rarely done on purpose). Can’t compare the two and argue that they should be approached from the same philosophical standpoint, imo.

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