Week zero

The Coalition prepares to choose or confirm leaders, Section 44 rears its head once again, and a look at the aggregate two-party preferred numbers.

To allow for a separate thread for the late election counting, which can be found here, here goes my first post-election summary of relevant news to kick off a general discussion thread. Which is naturally less easy to do now that there are no polls or election horse race scuttlebutt to relate. Here’s what I’ve managed:

• Peter Dutton now appears certain to be elected unopposed as the new Liberal leader at the first meeting of the party room after the election winners have been confirmed. There appears to be strong support for the notion that the deputy position should go to a woman, names mentioned including Karen Andrews, Bridget Archer, Sussan Ley, Anne Ruston and Jane Hume. There were some suggestions that Andrews might seek the leadership, together with Dan Tehan, although it always seemed clear Dutton had the numbers.

• The Nationals party room will meet on Tuesday, which could see a challenge to Barnaby Joyce’s leadership from David Littleproud or Michael McCormack. However, the ABC reports it has been put to McCormack that it would be preferable to have a “fresh start”. Mike Foley of the Age/Herald reports Keith Pitt might put his name forward on the “off chance” that Joyce declines to stand, positioning himself as the heir to Joyce’s skepticism on net zero carbon emissions.

• Following her win over Labor’s Kristina Keneally as an independent for Fowler, it has been noted that Dai Le asserted on her Section 44 checklist as part of her nomination for the election that she had never been a citizen or subject of a country other than Australia. Queried by The Australian, constitutional law expert Anne Twomey offered the inuitively obvious point that this seemed unlikely given she was born in Vietnam in 1968 and remained there until her family fled in 1975. However, while a nomination may be rejected if a prospective candidate does not complete the checklist and provide supporting documentation is required, it would not appear a nomination is retrospectively invalidated if the information provided was later shown to be incomplete. The sole point at issue is whether Le does in fact have Vietnamese citizenship, which would appear unlikely based on the account of Sydney barrister Dominic Villa.

• The projections of both the ABC and myself are that Labor will win the final two-party preferred count by 51.8-48.2, from a swing to Labor of 3.3%. This is derived from two-candidate preferred counts between Labor and the Coalition in seats where one is available and estimates of other parties’ preference flows where they are not. I have Labor winning by 51.3-48.7 in New South Wales, a swing of 3.0%; 53.9-46.1 in Victoria, a swing of 0.8%; the Coalition winning 54.3-45.7 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of 4.1%; Labor winning 54.7-45.3 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.2% (their first win in the state since 1987 and best result since 1983); 53.9-46.1 in South Australia, a swing of 3.2%; and 53.8-46.2 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 2.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,000 comments on “Week zero”

Comments Page 56 of 60
1 … 55 56 57 … 60

  1. Bodie @ #2749 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 5:42 pm

    I think the liberals will try to make amendments to weaken any FICAC, like whats happened in South Australia which can only look at criminal matters now. I expect they will be already have plans in place after seeing Zali Icac proposal in the leadup to election. They can then vote against any legislation that exceeds criminal level of corruption. Labor should be prepared and working with greens to ensure that FIcac can look at all levels of corruption.

    Depending on budget situation , Labor might be amenable to some expansion to dental to low income persons into medicare.

    Labor have no option but to negotiate with the progressives on the FICAC legislation.

    If they do a deal with the L/NP for a weak FICAC that would be electoral suicide.

    Re dental, I’d be pleasantly shocked if Labor found a way to expand Medicare to dental.

  2. Oh, and if albo, bandt and Thame various teals are on PB right now, this one’s yours for free.

    Adopt labor’s two inadequate targets and legislate them. Instead of bringing labor’s targets up by making the number closer to what it needs to be, the greens and teals should amend the legislation to include a carbon budget equivalent to a linear trend to labor’s 2039 target and then a second linear trend to the 2050 target. This allows labor to keep their election commitment while also actually doing something meaningful on climate change. A carbon budget is the thing that stops governments simply kicking the can down the road, doing nothing and making the targets the problem of whoever is in government on the last day. A carbon budget will require labor to actually do stuff instead of procrastinate.

    And then, once labor are required to actually do something, the greens and teals will happily fill the policy void labor is leaving by with their absence of a real plan to reduce emissions.

  3. P1: “If you had been here long enough, you would have known I was strongly in favor of using gas as a transition fuel to move away from coal … about 10 years ago, when we had time for such measures. Now, we do not.”

    It is completely and utterly irrelevant whether you’ve had some epiphany about whether gas is no longer suitable for weaning countries off of coal. It is being used for that purpose whether you like it or not. If you’re against it, you’re for wrecking the environment so you can virtue signal. If you stop Australia exporting more gas, countries will burn more coal to compensate. Fact.

    Other more intelligent people than you see it as a choice between wrecking the environment, and managing the change away from coal. Thankfully, it’s irrelevant what the lunatic fringe thinks. Tie yourself to a truck if you think it’s important to you. That’s what you lot do, isn’t it?

    Coal is being phased out. Gas will be phased out after it. Using more gas and less coal reduces emissions. Fact.

  4. Gallagher repeated it on Insiders this morning.
    Labor has learned from the RGR years.
    Labor will introduce its climate package as promised and as it has said it would do dozens of times during the election campaign.
    The Greens will have a clear choice.
    Stop Labor’s climate action or support climate action.

  5. Boerwar @ #2713 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 2:04 pm

    ‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 3:54 pm

    ….

    I’m sorry, but it seems you have a major problem accepting and dealing with change.

    The political landscape, like society has changed since you were a boy and as such we have to deal with it.

    Some things are of benefit, some not so much, but with what ever happens, we need to accept the new reality and deal with it.’
    —————-
    Please spare me from the pop psychology.

    I have seen the extremes on both right and left gain vote share in this election. The extreme right got at least 13% of the primary vote. The extreme left, that is to say the Greens, got around 12% of the vote. If you include a percentage of the remaining indies and minors then you could probably roughly argue that right and left extremists each got somewhere around 15% of the vote.

    My view is that that this change to the extremes is accelerating. That is not ignoring change. That is recognizing it and seeing what it is bringing with it.

    My view, as a centrist, is that this move to both extremes is neither inevitable nor desirable. The ability of the right extreme to drag the Liberals off centre for 9 years has had disastrous consequences.

    Let’s say that the Greens do the same to Labor with the Greens extreme and often nonsensical policies. Once again that would be bad for the nation. Beyond any shadow of a doubt.

    So, what are the options for the centrist parties? More of the same is not going to work for them or for Australia. So, they must adapt for the good of Australia. In that context, using a preference swap to wipe out the Greens and the Nationals can only be a positive.

    Doesn’t your argument collapse considering the success of the teals?

  6. Nicko @ #2750 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 5:48 pm

    If you had been here long enough, you would have known I was strongly in favor of using gas as a transition fuel to move away from coal … about 10 years ago, when we had time for such measures.

    Now you moved onto nuclear of all things!!!

    Well, again – if you had been here at the time, I was also in favor of nuclear in principle, but I accepted that Australia had missed the boat. We also don’t have the technological base or time to develop a domestic nuclear industry.

    But now things have worsened by a long way, and I think it may have to be put back on the table as an option. If necessary, we should import the technology holus-bolus from other countries more experienced in it. Which, by the way, is exactly what we are now talking about for nuclear submarines.

  8. BITJ
    I regard the Teals as pragmatic centrists. Most of them will, IMO, turn out to be centre right in practice.
    Once ICAC, gender equity and some action on climate action happens they will be all over the shop.

    The key to understanding what the Teals will really achieve is how much additional taxation they support.
    They were silent on this during the campaign.
    They inhabit anti-tax seats.
    Not a single one has proposed a wider tax base as a necessary pre-requisite for social equity.

  11. People think incorrectly that labor needs to have a high target to change the economic picture on climate change.
    By simply having a government that wants to legislate a target and provide funding, decision assistance and timely government help to CC causes and green energy the scales will tip in favor of a climate friendly future.

    I know the thinking on the labor side is to not spook the horses with a big target but to have a happy accident and easily exceed it.

    No one is building new coal plants and most of the coal mines are starting to become unprofitable. Labor doesn’t need to be liable in their shuttering, the markets will manage that all on it’s own.

    But it’ll be interesting to see how the greens and teals play it. For bot the sad fact is, that effective climate action was required the world over in the 90’s. The future is going to be extreme for all that survive and those harbor side mansions in Sydeny are going to eaten by the sea, regardless of who is voted in.

  13. south @ #2761 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 6:02 pm

    But it’ll be interesting to see how the greens and teals play it. For bot the sad fact is, that effective climate action was required the world over in the 90’s. The future is going to be extreme for all that survive and those harbor side mansions in Sydeny are going to eaten by the sea, regardless of who is voted in.

    So, too late to act, you reckon? This is famously the last stage of climate denial. I had not realized we had reached it already 🙁

  14. south
    Agreed.
    In addition, Labor was smart. It put together a set of policies that were costed and pragmatic. They added up to 43% so it adopted 43% as a doable pragmatic target.
    They formed government around that 43%.
    It is not about to abandon that just because Bandt demands that Labor closes down the oil, gas, coal and uranium industries tomorrow.

  18. Boerwar @ #2764 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 6:05 pm

    It is not about to abandon that just because Bandt demands that Labor closes down the oil, gas, coal and uranium industries tomorrow.

    What about when the IPCC demands it? Would you act then?

    Oh, and no-one is “closing down” the industry – at least not just yet. Just stopping unnecessary and dangerous new extraction projects like the Beetaloo basin.

    Having a target of 43% reduction and then supporting a project that will – all by itself – lead to a 13% increase. Can you reconcile that? Because I cannot.

  21. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 4:47 pm
    When a polite political adult meets a political toddler.

    🙂
    … I can’t see the Libs lite agreeing to completely disregard what remains of the air sea gap.
    Greens’ Bandt’s demands or not.
    Though that seems quaint anyway in an era of drones, AI, cyber, without … civil defence.
    Another southern resources area as a stepping stone to the riches of Antarctica, in WW5?
    Or move the Brisbane line, turning Reichspotato with Littleproud into Quislings, north of the border, I guess, to say Coffs Harbour to Perth.
    Given the messaging on taxes, it does sound they’ll cut from Fibs/ Nats fav initiatives, and redirect, nbn/ NBN included, and may be do something creative with income tax (payroll tax, stamp duty, …) and GST through COAG.
    I’d like to see them move on holistic regional development.
    More incentives to non fossil fuel initiatives, fewer dollars to blowing up humanity, clearing land, climate change resources.
    In the meantime perhaps the ABC or similar can put up PromiseWatch again.

  22. is exactly what we are now talking about for nuclear submarines.

    Yeah in like 20 years or something, that won’t help us get to our emission reduction targets

  23. Player One,
    Climate change is grim, and I work close in the field so I’m exposed to the information about it a lot.

    If we’re really lucky, humans will create fusion power which can be used to sequester carbon on mass. In addition we need to plant ALOT of forests. And close the loop on plastics, We can have plastics we just need to stop using oil to produce them.

    It’s a mega downer topic.

  28. I’m just enjoying having adults in charge for once. Katy Gallagher spoke very well on Insiders this morning, and while I didn’t see the interview, the grabs replayed on the news of Albo on Sky this morning were also clear and without the emo drama we’ve become acustomed to with the coalition.

  29. south @ #2759 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 6:02 pm

    People think incorrectly that labor needs to have a high target to change the economic picture on climate change.
    By simply having a government that wants to legislate a target and provide funding, decision assistance and timely government help to CC causes and green energy the scales will tip in favor of a climate friendly future.

    I know the thinking on the labor side is to not spook the horses with a big target but to have a happy accident and easily exceed it.

    No one is building new coal plants and most of the coal mines are starting to become unprofitable. Labor doesn’t need to be liable in their shuttering, the markets will manage that all on it’s own.

    But it’ll be interesting to see how the greens and teals play it. For bot the sad fact is, that effective climate action was required the world over in the 90’s. The future is going to be extreme for all that survive and those harbor side mansions in Sydeny are going to eaten by the sea, regardless of who is voted in.

    This has been exactly my line of thought. Set the targets as promised, create an environment which allows business to get on with the job of putting in place the mechanics of emissions reduction and then watch as Australia meets and beats the new target. 😀

    Upgrade the target as we do so.

  32. VCT Et3e says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 6:11 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 4:47 pm
    When a polite political adult meets a political toddler.

    … I can’t see the Libs lite agreeing to completely disregard what remains of the air sea gap.
    Greens’ Bandt’s demands or not.
    Though that seems quaint anyway in an era of drones, AI, cyber, without … civil defence.
    …’
    ===========================
    It is time that folks realized that old fashioned heavy weaponry still has a core function.
    The Russians are killing and wounding 200-400 Ukrainian soldier a day using heavy artillery.
    They are advancing.

  33. Confessions @ #2776 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 6:21 pm

    I’m just enjoying having adults in charge for once. Katy Gallagher spoke very well on Insiders this morning, and while I didn’t see the interview, the grabs replayed on the news of Albo on Sky this morning were also clear and without the emo drama we’ve become acustomed to with the coalition.

    Also without the deflection and ignoring of the question in order to get the pre-ordained talking points out.

  35. Boerwar seems even more desperately unhinged than usual today.

    Labor have just won their first election in a decade. Boerwar is obviously upset by this unfortunate state of affairs, but never fear – he has a solution! Enter into an informal coalition with the party they just beat, to ensure it never happens again. That should work.

    (To all the Labor ultras of PB: you do realise you won the election? Right?)

  37. Rowe has perfectly captured the essence of those Nationals. Right down to the slightly confused look Chester usually carries.

  39. For fifteen years the Greens and the Coalition wedged Labor on climate. The result was two fifths of fuck all progress thanks to the Coalition and the Greens
    Those parties are still trying the wedgie but Labor has stonkered them.
    Next, please.

  42. Have post election discussion threads turned all loopy lol?

    Observing participants posting seriously about the prospect of the liberals and the ALP creating an alliance to wipe out the Nats and the greens haha god

  43. BK @ #2774 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 6:16 pm

    Bring it on!

    AFR readers cold on Dutton leadership

    Only one in three readers surveyed by The Australian Financial Review think Peter Dutton is the best person to lead the Liberal Party, with respondents calling on the opposition to try and win back teal seats by moving to the left.

    Mr Dutton is expected to be named Liberal leader on Monday when the party meets for the first time since its election loss.

    While the former defence minister is likely to be elected unopposed, the poll of 583 Financial Review readers found 57 per cent of respondents thought Mr Dutton was not the best person to lead the Liberal Party.

    Twenty-four per cent of readers said Mr Dutton was the best person to lead the Liberal Party but only because he was the sole viable candidate. Just 11 per cent of respondents said Mr Dutton was the best person to lead the opposition without qualification.

    “If the Liberal Party appoint a right-wing conservative like Dutton to lead them it will be clear that they have either learnt nothing or chosen to ignore what they learnt from the recent election,” one reader said.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/afr-readers-cold-on-dutton-leadership-20220527-p5ap4x

  44. Behold, the work of a genuine fucking idiot:

    “ Well, again – if you had been here at the time, I was also in favor of nuclear in principle, but I accepted that Australia had missed the boat. We also don’t have the technological base or time to develop a domestic nuclear industry.

    But now things have worsened by a long way, and I think it may have to be put back on the table as an option. If necessary, we should import the technology holus-bolus from other countries more experienced in it. Which, by the way, is exactly what we are now talking about for nuclear submarines.”

    Labor’s ‘inadequate’ climate change policy will actually deliver the built infrastructure for renewables to power the whole economy well before 2050.

    What. The. Fuck. Does “ we should import the technology holus-bolus from other countries more experienced in it” actually entail? Do you really think that any nuclear capable country out there actually has the spare human resource capacity (let alone the spare industrial capacity to build the reactors) to fast track an Australian civilian nuclear industry to roll out large scale nuclear power within 20 years?

    When you stop being pitiful and generally pathetic could you at least answer this question: who was it? did you preference Constance over Phillips in Gilmore? Well?

  46. Bird of paradox says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 6:25 pm

    Boerwar seems even more desperately unhinged than usual today.

    Labor have just won their first election in a decade. Boerwar is obviously upset by this unfortunate state of affairs, but never fear – he has a solution! Enter into an informal coalition with the party they just beat, to ensure it never happens again. That should work.

    (To all the Labor ultras of PB: you do realise you won the election? Right?)
    =============================
    It is practically a universal characteristic of Greens posters that they revert to personal abuse when confronted with some reality or other that does not conform to cult rules.
    Once again I am being verbaled.
    I do not like minority government.
    I do not like a situation in which the Greens wedge Labor and gradually take Labor seats over.
    I do not like a situation in which the extreme right and the extreme left (in about equal proportion, incidentally) are taking a greater and greater proportion of the national vote.
    I do not like extreme right policies. I believe that many of the Greens policies are stupendously wrong-headed and would be completely destructive of the national interest.
    I do not like it when the extreme right in the form of the Nationals drag the Liberals to the right. This has had terrible repercussions for the past nine years.
    I do not like it when Bandt demands to do the same thing to Labor.
    The obvious solution is for the Liberals and Labor to do a preference swap. The benefit to the centre more generally is that the extremists lose their seats.
    This is a perfectly rational solution that can only benefit Australia.

  47. A-E
    Anything-but-Labor just has to be a Constance Groupie.
    She’s had more positions on climate than the Liberals.
    And they have all always been right.

  49. FYI on the great Gilmore second preference scandal that has engulfed a few of the bludgers here:

    I was blooded into the Gilmore Country Labor party (it was still called country Labor at that time) community without any choice in the matter due to an active mother who is a long standing member of the local branch.

    If some idiot did really preference Constance 2nd after giving 1st to the greens I must say you truely are a dumb fk. The margin is so wafer thin you may have directly contributed to the liberals regaining the seat

Comments Page 56 of 60
1 … 55 56 57 … 60

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *