Week zero

The Coalition prepares to choose or confirm leaders, Section 44 rears its head once again, and a look at the aggregate two-party preferred numbers.

To allow for a separate thread for the late election counting, which can be found here, here goes my first post-election summary of relevant news to kick off a general discussion thread. Which is naturally less easy to do now that there are no polls or election horse race scuttlebutt to relate. Here’s what I’ve managed:

• Peter Dutton now appears certain to be elected unopposed as the new Liberal leader at the first meeting of the party room after the election winners have been confirmed. There appears to be strong support for the notion that the deputy position should go to a woman, names mentioned including Karen Andrews, Bridget Archer, Sussan Ley, Anne Ruston and Jane Hume. There were some suggestions that Andrews might seek the leadership, together with Dan Tehan, although it always seemed clear Dutton had the numbers.

• The Nationals party room will meet on Tuesday, which could see a challenge to Barnaby Joyce’s leadership from David Littleproud or Michael McCormack. However, the ABC reports it has been put to McCormack that it would be preferable to have a “fresh start”. Mike Foley of the Age/Herald reports Keith Pitt might put his name forward on the “off chance” that Joyce declines to stand, positioning himself as the heir to Joyce’s skepticism on net zero carbon emissions.

• Following her win over Labor’s Kristina Keneally as an independent for Fowler, it has been noted that Dai Le asserted on her Section 44 checklist as part of her nomination for the election that she had never been a citizen or subject of a country other than Australia. Queried by The Australian, constitutional law expert Anne Twomey offered the inuitively obvious point that this seemed unlikely given she was born in Vietnam in 1968 and remained there until her family fled in 1975. However, while a nomination may be rejected if a prospective candidate does not complete the checklist and provide supporting documentation is required, it would not appear a nomination is retrospectively invalidated if the information provided was later shown to be incomplete. The sole point at issue is whether Le does in fact have Vietnamese citizenship, which would appear unlikely based on the account of Sydney barrister Dominic Villa.

• The projections of both the ABC and myself are that Labor will win the final two-party preferred count by 51.8-48.2, from a swing to Labor of 3.3%. This is derived from two-candidate preferred counts between Labor and the Coalition in seats where one is available and estimates of other parties’ preference flows where they are not. I have Labor winning by 51.3-48.7 in New South Wales, a swing of 3.0%; 53.9-46.1 in Victoria, a swing of 0.8%; the Coalition winning 54.3-45.7 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of 4.1%; Labor winning 54.7-45.3 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.2% (their first win in the state since 1987 and best result since 1983); 53.9-46.1 in South Australia, a swing of 3.2%; and 53.8-46.2 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 2.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,000 comments on “Week zero”

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  6. “Here’s a collage from years ago when Malcolm Turnbull was PM called “Family Values:The Caymans” – with Dutton as Pugsley – http://political-geometry.blogspot.com/2016/04/family-values.html”

    Peter Dutton used to be an acceptable looking fella 10 years ago – certainly more handsome than Mio, but now? He makes me look like Clooney. I think the only pollie that I can think of who has physically deteriorated at a faster rate would have to be Viktor Yushchenko. But that was only after Putin poisoned him with TCDD Dioxin. I know Dutts caught a bad case of the rona off the Trump Whitehouse back at the beginning of the pandemic, but he had already nearly completed his Voldemort transformation by then.

  8. I just realised something when I looked at the Rowe cartoon. By having Susssan Ley and Angus Taylor in 2 of the foremost positions in the Liberal Opposition, it shows that hey truly think their future is not in the Exurbs but in the large regional centres, such as where the seats of those two are. It may also explain why they keep trying to pick off those seats, like Hunter and Gilmore, from Labor, and others via 3-cornered contests with the Nats. Those places are full of very socially conservative, religious capitalist types.

  9. The Bore’s stuff about Labor preferencing the Liberals instead of the Greens is, of course, total idiocy.

    Labor wants to govern. The Greens will always give them confidence and supply in the House. The Liberals obviously won’t.

    So the day that Labor preferences the Liberals is the day that they decide that they would prefer a Liberal government to a Labor minority government.

    And a Liberal government obviously means a Liberal-National government, so even if you are operating on the false notion that the Nationals are “extreme Right” and the Liberals are “centrist”, you’re not doing anything to keep the “extremes” out of government.

    Log off Bore.

  10. Hope everyone had a wonderful weekend. Long weekend here in Canberra so going to enjoy luxuriating with that extra day off. Going to be a bit wet tomorrow by the looks of it.

    Be kind to one another! I wish we could all just focus on the areas we agree rather than constantly arguing about the areas we don’t. Particularly given it’s the most stubborn posters who wont let it go – you’re never going to change each other’s minds!

  12. dave
    Teal readers?
    I was wondering what I would do were I a tactical voting Coalition MP. Would I support Dutton or somebody else?
    The problem when I surveyed the possibilities is that there does not seem to be anyone else who even looks vaguely prime ministerial material.

  13. “ The election is over, AE. Did you miss it?”

    Do you actually think anyone, other than L’arse, actually buys your cheap attempts at deflection? Perhaps you missed that late counting in Gilmore continues and the result of the election is still very much a live issue.

    So, P1. By now you know the question. So?

  14. I’m just going to say it right here : I was always under the assumption the at PD was of mixed asian and European ethnicity

  16. The Bore’s stuff about Labor preferencing the Liberals instead of the Greens is, of course, total idiocy.

    Labor wants to govern. The Greens will always give them confidence and supply in the Parliament. The Liberals obviously won’t.

    So the day that Labor preferences the Liberals is the day that they decide that they would prefer a Liberal government to a Labor minority government.

    And a Liberal government obviously means a Liberal-National government, so even if you are operating on the false notion that the Nationals are “extreme Right” and the Liberals are “centrist”, you’re not doing anything to keep the “extremes” out of government. On the contrary you are aiding them.

    Log off Bore.

  18. P1: “Not quite true – they can make demands on common sense and common decency.”

    You clearly have no idea what the IPCC is.

  19. Pi says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 3:54 pm
    “Gas extraction is going to continue in Oz if for no other reason than to wean the world off of coal. If you’re against gas infrastructure expanding to support the transition from coal for most of the world, you’re against action on climate change. Turning off our gas exports will simply mean that countries witout access to gas will use coal instead.”

    I stand to be corrected but I had a vague recollection that gas (methane) is even worse than CO2 in terms of its impact on climate change.

  20. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2812 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 6:43 pm

    So, P1. By now you know the question. So?

    I think we are all bored shitless of your question, AE.

    It is you who cannot seem to accept that you are not going to get an answer.

    Why? Because it clearly annoys you so much.

    Petty of me, I realize 🙂

  22. P1 if you really did preference Constance 2nd you may have directly contributed to Labor missing out on a majority. What the hell is the point in a preferential system like ours to give 1st and 2nd allocations to two candidates at complete opposite ends of the spectrum ??!’

  24. I expect Liberal And Labor to do deals and fight for the survival and best outcome for their parties. If the far left and far right are getting more than 10% each, a strategy to negate them should be looked for. Australians don’t want to move far from the middle, we have recently seen the reaction to a right leaning Govt. Imagine a far left Govt after it’s 1st term, particularly with the press putting the boot in.

  25. W
    There are plenty of Labor voter who would love to help the Liberals get rid of the Nationals. There are plenty of Liberal voters who would love to help Labor get rid of the Greens.
    The tactic of a targeted preference swap would help achieve this outcome.
    Now, I can understand why the Nationals and the Greens get abusive about this idea. After all, they like gaming the rules the way they are now.
    But, as everyone keeps saying, this election took all the old rules off the table.
    There is no sound reason for Liberals and Labor not to join to put a stop to the rot of the growing band of extremists threatening to run amok with their disproportionate, destructive and arrogant demands.
    Very appealing. Win win.

  26. For those who haven’t seen it yet the new series from Amazon Prime, “Reacher” – is pretty good.

    The first season, 8 one hour episodes does justice to the first book “The Killing Floor”.

    Reacher is played by Alan Ritchson who is 6′ 2″ but looks taller and bigger on screen and comes across more like the Reacher character in the books.

  27. I expect that Dutton will last longer than Nelson (that former union boss) as leader.

    If the Nationals stick with Joyce, a smart move by Dutton would be to break the coalition agreement. Firstly it would send a message that he is a changed man and the coalition as a whole needs to change direction.

    Secondly, all the paid shadow minister positions could be taken by the Liberals, so almost half of the party room would be beholden to him as leader.

  28. ‘ Alopecia’

    Baldness is not the physical deterioration I am referring to. He looks like a cancer survivor whose brief period of remission has come to an end. He looks like he’s about to check into palliative care. Definitely not healthy. However, he seems to have a lot of energy, so there is that.

  29. poroti says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 3:55 pm
    Cronus at 3:49 pm
    “The EU is in deep guano whatever happens. There is a shortage of ‘spare’ gas and the price they will have to pay for stuff from the US of A will be several 100% higher than the Russkiy stuff. Something that will sting the whole economy.”

    I noticed too that Germany, regardless of shortages, is moving as quickly as possible towards renewables rather than reverting to fossil fuels in the interim. I guess they’ve figured the long term gain outweighs the short term costs.

  32. Cronus: “I stand to be corrected but I had a vague recollection that gas (methane) is even worse than CO2 in terms of its impact on climate change.”

    Methane itself is a greenhouse gas, so if it is released, it is not good for the environment. But gas that is consumed has less greenhouse gas emissions than coal by about 50%. Transition from coal for energy to gas, and you reduce your emissions by about 50%. This is what the fringe lunatics want to stop.

  34. “ Australians don’t want to move far from the middle, we have recently seen the reaction to a right leaning Govt.”

    If this is the case, they won’t vote for other parties so there’s no issue.

  35. When Dutton had hair… I do find the fashion a bit weird, of shaving or waxing(?) off every last strand once some baldness has appeared, but he’s hardly the only one.

    Next election is the next time to propose a further increase to targets, as it becomes clear they’ll be overshot. And as people work out how to make a quid out of it, with 3 more years worth of anti-denialist young voters enrolled

  36. Victorians won’t forget Duttons racist attacks on our society no matter how much lipstick the MSM apply in order to create a contest.

  37. dave says:
    Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 6:52 pm

    ‘Boerwar @ #2811 Sunday, May 29th, 2022 – 6:43 pm

    dave

    I was wondering what I would do were I a tactical voting Coalition MP. Would I support Dutton or somebody else?

    Reports suggest Dutton will be unopposed.’
    =====================
    Yep. But were I to nominate someone else, who might it be? The options are thin.

  38. Boerwar

    “ I suspect we are both old enough to have seen numerous times when political triumphalism has come crashing down when reality hits.
    I agree that it would be difficult for the Coalition to return in 2025. It is certainly far from impossible.”

    Agreed, I wouldn’t be betting on any outcomes at this stage, too many unknown unknowns. The vagaries of life will see many twists and turns before 2025 and we can only hope that they are worse for the conservatives than for the progressives. I profess to be increasingly experienced but none the wiser.

  39. Outside left there has been some sort of ongoing comical and farcical drama over the last few weeks here between p1 and some others demanding to know who he gave his 2nd preference to after giving first to the greens. I think p1 implied that he gave Constance 2nd pref due to his perceived ability to get more pork and gravy to Gilmore. This revelation has enraged some fellow bludgers who would like to seem him hung, drawn and quartered lol

  40. Dave – So there is no truth that they are about to raise Menzies from the grave to take the leadership?

  41. As far as Liberals go, you could do a lot worse than Constance. He’s a moderate with very little time for Morrison (he put him right in his box after his moronic visit to Cobargo), and would probably end up in the shadow ministry before too long, given his experience at state level. Constance instead of some coal-worshipping troglodyte would be a good result.

    Leftie Brawler: Lib and ALP in Gilmore weren’t opposite ends of the spectrum. That honour would go to the anti-vax ex-Green indie and One Nation.

  42. Boerwar, the Liberals (who nobody in their right mind would these days consider “centrist”) have never, and will never, govern in their own right. They will *never* govern in coalition with Labor. They will only ever govern in coalition with the Nationals, and possibly ONP/PUP wingnuts. To assist in bringing to power a Liberal government (which is what preferencing them above the Greens means) amounts to empowering the extreme Right. (Which I imagine you probably think is “worth it”.)

  44. Lets hope these sentiments age well –

    ……………….
    Anthony Albanese on course for at least six years in power
    By David Crowe

    The prime minister has a much stronger hold on power than the election results suggest at first glance. Labor has 75 seats, and may get 76, but the prospect of 77 seats has receded. Albanese looks like he is holding on by his fingertips.

    Yet the defeat of the Liberals puts The Lodge out of reach for anyone else in this parliament for at least two terms – provided, of course, Labor learns the lessons of 2010 and gives its new prime minister its loyalty.

    The electoral pendulum shows Labor is within striking distance of winning more seats from the Liberals at the next election if it governs with competence and care.

    In fact, he is outlining an agenda that expects two terms. For all the talk about a “small target” strategy, Albanese is repeatedly emphasising his intention to seek a referendum on constitutional recognition of First Australians.

    The rejection of the Liberals in so many seats gives Albanese the gift of time. He does not appear to be worried in the least by the likely rise of Peter Dutton as opposition leader – someone he respects but someone whose political persona has set like concrete for many voters.

    More –
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/anthony-albanese-on-course-for-at-least-six-years-in-power-20220529-p5apdb.html

  45. Bird of paradox I was referring to the greens and libs who p1 apparently allocated 1st and 2nd in his ballot slip lol

  46. “ It is you who cannot seem to accept that you are not going to get an answer.”

    Sport, I worked you out about a year ago. I ask the question to emphasis your feckless hypocrisy: not in the expectation of receiving an answer.

    What annoys me is not that you choose to keep your vote private, which is your right, but the degree of chutzpah involved in your bloviating about “just vote 1: independent” when you wont fess up to how you would actually cast the real meaningful vote in Gilmore.

    What shits me is your Labor phobic ‘same-same’ denigration: parsing reviews of Labor’s climate policy as ‘perhaps’ a little better than the LNP’s (but not enough to vote FOR, obviously) even when experts call it a SUBSTANTIAL improvement over the LNPs.

    Your continual Labor gaslighting is completely at odds with how Albo was received by Biden at the Quad – when Albo defined Climate Change as also a critical Security Issue; OR how Penny Wong was received by the PI on her firs trip at FM, when she correctly framed climate change as a key challenge for the whole pacific family.

  47. just wondering is borwer realy a labor suporter or a liberal attacking the greens bandt got in parliament in 2010 on lib preferentsis liberals can only winn power with 15 nationals any way wonder when labor will anowse cabenit and who will replace thekenearley and butler in northcoat after bi election at following general election labor defeated lidea thorp if labor signed to preferents libs they would lose evry inner city seat

  49. “ The Bore’s stuff about Labor preferencing the Liberals instead of the Greens is, of course, total idiocy.”

    It’s pretty simple in my book: the splitters before the filth, every time.

    If Baa-Andt wasn’t to stunt and carry on lie a child, then labor will simply ignore him and present its own legislation and force the children to make a decision.

    If Baa-Andt wants to act like an adult, then the negotiating table should always be there: to improve legislation within the overall parameters set by the Government and to suggest other initiatives that aren’t country to the platform that Labor took to the election. But as soon as Baa-Andt starts throwing the toys out of the cot, its lights off and no more dinner for him.

  50. As for the utterly cooked Lib/ALP preference thing. Looking at it from a pseph angle for a second:

    ALP/Grn seats: so the Libs might preference Labor, huh? They already do. This is why Labor have just won the seas of Wills and Cooper (and possibly Macnamara). Meanwhile, Labor won Richmond on Nat prefs.

    Lib/Nat seats: there aren’t too many of those thanks to (a) the two parties not running against each other when there’s a sitting MP, and (b) the existence of the LNP in Qld. Breaking the coalition is unlikely to happen in Vic (where the Nats are a lot less crazy than their northern cousins, eg Darren Chester), and impossible in NSW, where the coalition is currently in government.

    As for the LNP, whether they want to demerge that depends on the complicated party system in Qld sate politics, beyond the Lib/ALP spectrum. Would a separate Liberal party win Noosa off the teal-ish independent, or Maiwar off the Greens? Would a separate National party win the three northern seats off Katter, or Mirani off One Nation? If they get a majority between them, who gets to be premier? There’s plenty more questions than that, but whatever happens: if the LNP is demerged it’ll be driven by state issues, not federal.

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