Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Newspoll continues to present a stable picture on voting intention, crediting Labor with a two-party lead a few points stronger than ahead of the greater pollster failure of 2019.

The Australian reports on an unusually timed release from Newspoll, although the field work period from the poll of Tuesday to Friday is only slightly different from the usual Wednesday to Saturday. The poll finds no change since last week on two-party preferred, with Labor retaining a lead of 54-46 from primary votes of Labor 38% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady), Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 6% (up one) and United Australia Party 3% (down one). Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 42% and down two on disapproval to 53%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 38% and up two to 49%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 44-42 to 43-42. The sample for the poll was 1532.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,184 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 18 of 24
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  1. Catching up on today’s news I see that Labor has rightly complained about Scomo politicising the AUKUS announcement.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-14/labor-accuses-scott-morrison-of-politics-on-aukus-deal/101067110

    I would agree with this criticism and add a second major way it is continuing to be politicised. That is the actions of the AUKUS working group since.

    The AUKUS working group has been given 18 months to work out a feasible path to deliver SSNs for Australia and report back. This will also include the choice of sub to be built, and how many.

    Yet there are two concerns with this:
    1. Some technical aspects (e.g. which sub) can probably be determined in 18 days. As soon as we know who can supply SSN reactors to Australia in time, that country will get the contract; we can make everythign except the reactors.

    So why keep this secret for 18 months? As soon as you know which sub we are building, industry can start planning for it, firms team up etc. Delaying the announcement delays the start of the building capability to deliver the project.

    2. Some policy aspects should be discussed outside defence, but this is not happening.
    – which options is cheapest? there are tens of billions at stake in the differences.
    – how many subs are being built? Will it form a “continuous build” for ASC, ending the constant fear of another “valley of death” for workers.
    – how much do we integrate into the US defence forces? Do we buy/build subs with missile launch tubes? Are are neighbours happy with which sub we build?
    – which east coast city gets the new sub base? Are they happy with it?

    All of these questions have a legitimate political dimension, that merits public debate. Yet we are not getting any of this, except to wedge Labor (the base choice). Dutton is keeping it internal, under his control, so he can release information selectively, when it suits him.

  2. Arky @ #840 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 6:47 pm

    @Rex – I’m sure you and your extreme humility make sure to update your voter registration on the same day you move house, and also your drivers’ licence address and everything else, but less perfect people than you forget things occasionally.

    If you’re running for parliament you double check everything is in order.

    Not sure about this bloke.

  4. puffytmd says:
    Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 5:49 pm
    ……
    In one episode, the white guy was swanning around as royalty when he found out there was a princess in his bloodline. In the end, he was informed that Princess was a black African
    —————————————————-
    Decades later, the Bridgerton series on Netflix has made a virtue of this, making Queen Charlotte (George III’s wife) of black descent, and many of the main characters of black and Asian origin. It just barely rates a mention in the series.
    Times sure do change.

  5. This hoo ha about Charlton is ridiculous. It has nothing to do with his candidacy, he just forgot to update his address on the voter roll. There isn’t even a penalty for not updating. It’s just the legislation says you have to do it.
    Any discussions of referrals to the AFP are legally incorrect.

  7. Parramatta Labor candidate could be referred to the Australian Federal Police according to Nine News.

    Are the AFP in the business of investigating offences for which the penalty is a $200 fine?

  10. More to the point is that Biden was led to believe that the French knew of the arrangements the Australian government was making – and apologized to Macron.

    Then Biden was led to believe there was bi-partisan support in Australia.

    So twice Morrison has deliberately misled Biden

    And that is Australia’s reputation

  13. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 7:04 pm

    WB,

    I haven’t banned anyone from contributing lately.

    __________
    You did infer my wife was a pig the other day. Doesn’t matter to me of course, she’s pretty hot. You demonstrate who’s a pig every day.

  15. Keep young people in jobs

    Walking around with sandwich boards earning $30- an hour, which is $10- an hour more than the lowest wage.

  16. Player One says:
    Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 7:09 pm

    Is it too early to start a “Bring back GG” campaign?
    ________
    No one would get behind that.

  17. Ah Rex

    If only we all had your Torquemadaesque ability to determine moral correctness the world would be a perfect place to live in (unless you qualify for a cleansing auto da fe).

  19. Charlton will win Parramatta I have no doubt.

    But Albo might have to have a quiet word to him to remind him he’ll be in the spotlight as a star candidate and Labor can’t afford any extra bad press.

  25. Socrates

    Morrison has a bad habit of lying even to our allies. We can now add the USA to France on the world stage. He’s simply incapable of telling the truth.

  26. “Is it too early to start a “Bring back GG” campaign?”

    So, who is going to be P1, Constance or Phillips? Who are you preferring above the other on your HOR ballot paper?

  29. I had a gigantic cocktail, which came in one of those large wine glasses, tonight when I went out for dinner. It was called a Nudy and it contained Dry Gin and sparkling wine. So, I’m a little bit tipsy too!

  31. ShaneB says:
    Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 2:25 pm
    WB

    Can i not block anyone ??
    —————

    I’ve never blocked anyone ever.

    I don’t see the need nor do I know how to. 🙂

  34. Evan at 7.17

    Morrison’s housing policy: to avoid rent-stress, buy a house!

    Woohoo! Vote Liberal!

    Repeat for 347 pages and call it a policy.

  39. As I go to sleep tonight, with Sportsbet offering $4.10 (+10 cents) I will sleep safely knowing Those Morrison Men (FFS!) will be keeping me safe…

  41. BeaglieBoy says:
    Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 7:16 pm
    Half political blog, half bareknuckle boxing
    中华人民共和国
    Oath. They are doing the stump very well. I am up at Kanchanaburi on the Kwai. Local jungle juice and I am half cut. It’s 38 degrees in the shade and I am watching PB back and forth. This time next week the The Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club will be having its Inaugural Meeting. Can’t wait.

  42. Good evening Evan….I’m in the feeling crap Covid club at the moment….But being entertained royally atm with the footy on and Geelong losing, but its not nearly as combative as PB

  44. Evan @ #180 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 7:17 pm

    Morrison to announce a housing policy tomorrow, says the ABC. Wonder what it will be?
    _______________
    It will be interesting considering their lack of interest in the issue. I suspect woke pc thug is correct, more incentive for investors.

  45. “My reading of Qld currently is in three tranches. Brisbane / Longman / Leichhardt. Then Ryan / Dickson / Forde. Then the rest – like Flynn, Petrie, Bonner. I do not believe Bowman in play. I am hopeful that things are around the second group.”

    Margins:
    Brisbane…………………..4.9
    Longman………………….3.3
    Leichhardt………………..4.2
    Ryan………………………….6.0
    Dickson…………………….4.6
    Forde……………………….8.6
    Flynn………………………8.7
    Petrie………………………8.4
    Bonner……………………7.4
    Bowman…………………10.2

    The current Bludger Track overall swing to the ALP in Qld is: 8.8%

    So, if the swing is real, Labor may win all those seats except Bowman = 9 seats. That alone would mean a clear win for the ALP, positive results from other states will just add to the size of the win.

    If we are conservative and correct the swing by 3% (margin of error), then we have 5.8% and Labor may win 4 of those seats. That win alone will already get the ALP to 73 seats against 72 seats for the Coalition, then we will have to add the additional seats won from the Coalition in other states.

    This assumes that the ALP doesn’t lose any seat, of course, which looks quite likely given the current anti-Scomo, anti-Coalition “vibe”…..

  47. Evan says:
    Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 7:17 pm
    Morrison to announce a housing policy tomorrow, says the ABC. Wonder what it will be?
    中华人民共和国
    He is moving out of the Lodge.

  49. Firefox says:
    Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 7:24 pm

    “Have you seen Bushfire Bill lately?”

    ***

    How about Pegasus?
    _______
    A lovely lady. Hello Pegasus if you are out there!

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