YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8

All revealed from the YouGov MRP poll that was teased yesterday, suggesting Labor is on track for a fairly comfortable parliamentary majority in its own right.

The Australian now has the full suite of projected seat results from the YouGov MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, conducted April 14 to May 7 from a sample of 18,923. Usings its data to model results based on electorates’ demography, rather than just the relatively small number of respondents from a given electorate, it projects Labor to win a clear majority of 80 seats, with the Coalition to win 63, the Greens one and others seven.

Seats projected as Labor gains are Bennelong, Lindsay, Reid and Robertson in New South Wales, Chisholm and Higgins in Victoria, Brisbane in Queensland, Pearce and Swan in Western Australia, Boothby in South Australia, and Bass in Tasmania. However, some of these are 50-50 calls on two-party preferred that are identified as leaning fractionally to either side. This includes Bennelong and Lindsay, with Longman, Ryan and Sturt identified as remaining with the Coalition, and Corangamite as a potential Labor loss.

As noted in yesterday’s post, the model also projects Kooyong and Goldstein as teal independent gains from the Liberals, and for all existing cross-benchers to retain their seats. While Brisbane is listed as a clear Labor win, its near tie on the primary vote between Labor on 29% and the Greens on 28% suggests either could be the one to ride over the Liberal National Party on 36% with the preferences of the other.

Rolling its results into state totals produces the following:

• In New South Wales, Coalition 36.4% (down from 42.5% in 2019), Labor 37.7% (up from 34.6%), Greens 9.3% (up from 8.7%), United Australia Party 3.5% (up from 3.4%) and One Nation 4.6%.

• In Victoria, Coalition 34.7% (down from 38.6%), Labor 36.5% (down from 36.8%), Greens 12.1% (up from 11.9%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.6%) and One Nation 3.8%.

• In Queensland, Coalition 39.1% (down from 43.7%), Labor 29.7% (up from 26.7%), Greens 11.9% (up from 10.3%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.5%) and One Nation 8.8%.

• In Western Australia, Coalition 38.1% (down from 45.2%), Labor 35.7% (up from 29.8%), Greens 12.7% (up from 11.6%), United Australia Party 2.3% (up from 2.0%) and One Nation 5.3%.

• In South Australia, Coalition 35.7% (down from 40.8%), Labor 38.5% (up from 35.4%), Greens 10.0% (up from 9.6%), United Australia Party 3.2% (down from 4.3%) and One Nation 5.2%.

• In Tasmania, Coalition 30.6% (down from 34.6%), Labor 32.4% (down from 33.6%), Greens 10.2% (up from 10.1%), United Australia Party 2.2% (down from 4.8%) and One Nation 4.2%.

These numbers for the most part line up reasonably well with BludgerTrack, except in South Australia where BludgerTrack has both major parties quite a bit higher on the primary vote. The Labor numbers are also lower than in BludgerTrack from the five biggest states, ranging from a 0.7% difference in New South Wales to a 2.9% difference in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

989 comments on “YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8”

Comments Page 15 of 20
1 … 14 15 16 … 20

  3. What’s with the ageism, Lars?

    Rupert is 91 and still leading the Liberals around by the nose like a steer at the abattoir..

  4. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 6:11 pm
    What’s with the ageism, Lars?

    Rupert is 91 and still leading the Liberals around by the nose like a steer at the abattoir..
    ____________________________________________________
    It’s a well known fact billionaires are more virile than ordinary mortals like you and i sprocket. Sumner Redstone was throwing a leg over his care nurse at 95 years of age apparently…

  5. jt1983 @ #699 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 6:07 pm

    @Rex – gotta want to hope if Labor is in Government they’ve got a big enough majority, a la Howard.

    Chalmers will announce an ‘independent tax review’ 12 months in.

    Report will come back recommending an increase/broadening of the GST along with offsets for lower income earners/welfare.

    Chalmers will take it to the next election.

  6. Apologies if already posted –

    Australians rate Morrison, Albanese out of 10 for trust, competency

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-12/vote-compass-party-leader-trust-competency-ratings/101056946

    ‘Australians were asked to rate the leaders out of 10 on trust and competency.
    Mr Albanese had an overall rating of 5.1, while Mr Morrison had an average rating of 3.3.
    Greens leader Adam Bandt scored an overall average of 4.
    Mr Albanese’s rating is the highest of any leader over the previous Vote Compass surveys run in the previous four federal election campaigns since 2013 but is only slightly higher than Malcolm Turnbull (4.8) during the 2016 election campaign’.

  9. Evan at 5.28

    I’m not sure why Q&A initially didn’t have a Labor person for tonight…seems suspicious…but definitely a courage award to Catherine King for swimming with these sharks!

  11. Lars
    Tomorrow is the day
    The bells will be rung for the MLAs to meet in the House of Commons chamber at Stormont (until a second ago I didn’t realise why the benches are blue) at 1 pm
    The father of the house will call for nominations for the Ceann Comhairle and some clown from the DUP will announce that they will not take part in the election.
    As the speakership requires cross community support, the house will then adjourn until the ringing of the bells.

  12. My friend in Lindsay says the Labor candidate Trevor Ross is well regarded, and doing ok on the ground. But it would appear that it is not on the possible column.

    Still, she and her circle of friends are voting Labor because they can’t stand Morrison. None of them have ever been polled.

  13. Looks like Labor has decided to smear Dai Le in Fowler. Good on Dai Le for fighting back against the bully boys.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=DTWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailytelegraph.com.au%2Fnews%2Fnational%2Fkeneally-cops-lawyer-letter-from-independent-over-misleading-ad%2Fnews-story%2Fa05e760fe93e32cb96fe53dcd828a654&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-hot-test-score&V21spcbehaviour=append

    Amazing – one of Labor’s safest seats will go to preferences.

  15. Aaron Newton’s comment at the start of the thread really makes me think. He makes the point that “Half of MPs are not trying with the talk of NDIS gaffe – thought Morrison would put it in an ad. This is the opposite of 2019, where Morrison had all the good lines [e.g.] ‘The Bill you can’t afford’ and Labor could not compete”.

    Why is Morrison floundering so badly this time? Does he just not have a choice (“it’s the economy, stupid”)? Does he have some mistaken belief about why he won last time, and he’s reproducing the wrong bits of last campaign instead of the right bits?

    How much can a campaign actually change things? It seems the media think the campaign is some sort of a chance to test out the opposition leader, but there’s no evidence the voters are reacting to Albo’s alleged gaffes that they love to make so much out of. So do gaffes ever make a difference? Like, I thought Latham lost because of gaffes, but then he went on to become an insane far right character so maybe I was just blinded by the color of his shirt and the average voter was more clear-eyed. And does the fact that Albo seems more authentic than Morrison help him out?

  16. Speaking of Sumner Redstone
    What of J Howard Marshall who married Anna Nicole Smith at age 89
    Apparently he said to his son who had previously contested his competency
    “Who’s the loony now”

  17. Lars
    “ It’s a well known fact billionaires are more virile than ordinary mortals like you and i sprocket. Sumner Redstone was throwing a leg over his care nurse at 95 years of age apparently…”

    ROTFL! I’m sure none of their partners are attracted by anything other than billionaires’ manly physiques. Clive Palmer must have to knock the chicks back like flies 😀

  18. That’s the beginning of the play, but how does it end OC?

    My guess:

    1) UK govt does a deal on protocol (which everybody but DUP + TUV endorses)
    2) NI assembly rules changed to have voluntary coalitions / joint chief ministers.
    3) DUP is presented with a choice of staying out and a SF + UUP + APNI coalition for the executive or SF +DUP
    4) Sir Jeffrey retires sometime in 2023 as joint chief minister

  19. Awkward …

    “Sky News presenter Paul Murray unleashed a foul-mouthed tirade against Labor off air, calling the opposition leader “fucking Albo”, and directing his audience to vote for the Coalition.

    “An audio recording from the Eatons Hill Hotel in Brisbane on Tuesday night has the Sky After Dark host making offensive remarks about senior Labor figures and demeaning comments about trans people, while defence minister, Peter Dutton, waited to be interviewed.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/may/12/sky-news-host-paul-murray-in-expletive-laden-anti-labor-tirade-to-audience-before-petter-dutton-interview?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  20. Boerwar @ #559 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 3:17 pm

    And then the young grow old. Twas ever thus.

    That would be relevant, if it weren’t for the vote patterns remaining pretty consistent in the groups as they’ve grown older, among the more recent age groups. That is, those who were 18-24 in 2013 are now in the 25-34 bracket (and were in 2019, too), and that bracket is actually voting more strongly for Greens than the 18-24 bracket did in 2013. So rather than moving away from the Greens (and Labor), they’ve moved towards them.

    It’s more along the lines of “older people tend to have more wealth, so they tend to be more protective of their wealth…”, except that we’re now talking about generations that have seen the devastation that that logic can have on society, and will actively fight against it.

  21. Here we go again at 5.55

    It may have been you (days ago) who posted about Howard’s measures to soften the shock of the GST being the root cause of the housing price explosion.

    If so, do you have a reference or link to an article on that?

    I’ve never heard of this viewpoint and would be interested to read more.

    It seems the “Howard good on economy” might be one of the great lies…

  22. Nath

    Instead of sitting in front of a screen, get out and about a bit (with both eyes open)

    It has been put that the underlying reason Australia was not in recession prior to the Pandemic was the infrastructure spend in Victoria

    Where was the Cash Rate, and why?

    Because that is the confirmation

  23. Lars, without revealing too much, the Marconi Club in Bossley Park is in the heart of Fowler and the spiritual home of the Italian community in Sydney (along with the Leichhardt crew).

    Think Carlton and Collingwood – nobody lives there anymore – but the family roots stretch across generations and across Australia.

    So who is doing a big event by invitation at the Marconi Club next week? Albo. And he will be introduced by your bête noir…

  24. Something on my mind tonight, what would be the odds of the results for the Senate in Victoria this election?

    Going into it, there’s 3 Coalition seats, 2 Labor seats and 1 Green seat defending.

    Would there be much chance of Labor picking up a seat from the Coalition? I don’t see the Greens losing theirs, and the 3rd Coalition seat might be under threat if their vote goes down in the teal-contested seats. Although personally I can only see Labor winning a 3rd if their Senate vote is above 35%.

  25. OK, folks.

    I’m travelling down on Saturday morning to attend the sprinkling of lizzie/Zoe’s ashes.

    If you want to contribute a few words, I’ll collate them and read them out.

  28. Snappy Tom says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 6:19 pm
    Evan at 5.28

    I’m not sure why Q&A initially didn’t have a Labor person for tonight…seems suspicious…but definitely a courage award to Catherine King for swimming with these sharks!

    ______________________________________

    I’m not suspicious. They probably approached a few shadows who were otherwise occupied. Rather than continuing to ring around, they went with who they had. Labor then found someone to turn up.

  30. ‘GlenO says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 6:30 pm

    Boerwar @ #559 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 3:17 pm

    And then the young grow old. Twas ever thus.

    That would be relevant, if it weren’t for the vote patterns remaining pretty consistent in the groups as they’ve grown older, among the more recent age groups. That is, those who were 18-24 in 2013 are now in the 25-34 bracket (and were in 2019, too), and that bracket is actually voting more strongly for Greens than the 18-24 bracket did in 2013. So rather than moving away from the Greens (and Labor), they’ve moved towards them.

    It’s more along the lines of “older people tend to have more wealth, so they tend to be more protective of their wealth…”, except that we’re now talking about generations that have seen the devastation that that logic can have on society, and will actively fight against it.’
    ——————————————
    I get where you are going, but mate, it is all relative. For me anyone who is younger than 60 is young!

  31. Once seen, the sight of an Australian diplomat bouncing off a rock at the hand of the PM’s minder cannot be unseen.

    Not one for calling election outcomes but if there’s a turning point this might be it.

    Jeepers.

  32. Absolute nonsense that Labor would do nothing but “build trust” if they win. They have a bunch of things they would need to immediately get cracking on, many of which involve no tax changes etc. Start with ICAC, robodebt royal commission, national energy plan, climate change targets. Plenty to get on with

    Working on the assumption of multiple terms would be arrogant and stupid.

  34. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 6:30 pm
    Lars, without revealing too much, the Marconi Club in Bossley Park is in the heart of Fowler and the spiritual home of the Italian community in Sydney (along with the Leichhardt crew).

    Think Carlton and Collingwood – nobody lives there anymore – but the family roots stretch across generations and across Australia.

    So who is doing a big event by invitation at the Marconi Club next week? Albo. And he will be introduced by your bête noir…
    ____________
    Sprocket – please do try and keep up. I revealed the Albo emergency visit to save KK hours ago on this site!

  37. 1 a Boris doesn’t want a trade war – border stays in the Irish Sea with some minor face saving
    1 b SDLP and UUP ( who agreed to power sharing 50 years ago) disappear before next election
    2 a DUP and TUV make themselves irrelevant as they continue boycott
    2 b Boris is given free hand to reform Good Friday
    2 c Sinn Féin and Alliance form voluntary coalition
    3 Cross border institutions are strengthened
    4 Serious discussion on what a united Ireland would look like (the adults will agree to a loose confederation) but poll is 20 years away

    Interesting article from the Irish Times lamenting the end of the Freestaters (SDLP) and UUP

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/sdlp-and-the-ulster-unionists-sacrificed-their-political-future-at-the-altar-of-peace-1.4875885

  39. zoomster

    lizzie was a bright steady light. Sharp when she wanted to be, but kind with it. I was thinking of her this morning as I made my breakfast. I think I knew lizzie and I wish I’d known Zoe.

    (Thank you for allowing us into your grief.)

  40. I ran the numbers on the YouGov poll. It comes out as a 52.5/47.5 2pp vote in favour of Labor. This is a tighter race than the other polls have been picking (currently averaging 54/46 on this site).

    It’s worth noting that the polling was done from mid april to early may when the polls were slightly tighter than they’ve been in the last week.

    My thinking is that the tight races will probably fall in Labor’s favour.

    Also, I think 2-3 extra teals will win for two reasons:
    1. They have a strong ground game and good momentum, meaning that the old nature of these polls won’t capture the late run.
    2. The way that the yougov poll works is it distributes the mood of different groups across the country, but it doesn’t capture local issues due to only having 125 respondents in each electorate.

  42. ‘GlenO says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 6:30 pm

    Boerwar @ #559 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 3:17 pm

    And then the young grow old. Twas ever thus.

    That would be relevant, if it weren’t for the vote patterns remaining pretty consistent in the groups as they’ve grown older, among the more recent age groups. That is, those who were 18-24 in 2013 are now in the 25-34 bracket (and were in 2019, too), and that bracket is actually voting more strongly for Greens than the 18-24 bracket did in 2013. So rather than moving away from the Greens (and Labor), they’ve moved towards them.

    It’s more along the lines of “older people tend to have more wealth, so they tend to be more protective of their wealth…”, except that we’re now talking about generations that have seen the devastation that that logic can have on society, and will actively fight against it.’
    ————————————————–

    When I was young most of us expected to start poor and most of us did. It simply did not occur to us that his was a fundamental social injustice. When we were young we ate dirt cheap food and scrimped and saved and pooled and copped it sweet. We bought a cup of coffee only very, very rarely. Never saw an avo. New all the cheap bulk food tricks. Slept three to a bedroom. All those trucs. Were we unhappy?

    Today’s young are being encouraged to think they should start rich by people who are doing so for party political purposes. It is easy to make people dissatisfied with their lot, is it not?

    First set up your tall poppies. Billionaires!!!

    BTW, you would not believe what the billionaires’ tax is going to pay for, for example. But we all know that in a multi trillion economy a billionaires tax might raise a bit but it will not nearly pay for all the free stuff that the Greens are going to shovel out to young people.

    BTW I have yet to see whether the Greens are going to favour foreign billionaires over native billionaires and how they are going to handle that. We all know, because the Greeks, the Venezuelans and the Argentinians have shown us how it is done, that punitive taxes on billionaires will cause Australian billionaires to bugger off with whatever money they can shift. A bit of the old bitcoin rollover and no-one will even see it go.

  44. Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 6:13 pm
    jt1983 @ #699 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 6:07 pm

    @Rex – gotta want to hope if Labor is in Government they’ve got a big enough majority, a la Howard.

    Chalmers will announce an ‘independent tax review’ 12 months in.

    Report will come back recommending an increase/broadening of the GST along with offsets for lower income earners/welfare.

    Chalmers will take it to the next election.

    That would be one way of getting thrown out after one term.

  45. qasar and Silver Budgie

    Because I had it open I was just able to do a complete cut and paste. It will be interesting to see the final as compared to the original.

    Here is a taster:

    ‘…
    Murray laughed at Swan for coming to the defence of Albanese, when he accused the media of “disgusting” gotcha journalism. “And again, what about Wayne Swan the other day, screaming and moaning because of course ‘the press has been mean to Albo, too mean to Albo’”, Murray said.
    He called the opposition leader “fucking Albo” when relating a story about two Labor leaders Albanese and McGowan owning poodles; and he said shadow foreign affairs spokesperson Penny Wong looked like a “mean girl”.
    “Have you heard about how Mark McGowan has a poodle like fucking Albo?,” he said.
    “We got mean girl Penny Wong pretending to be nice but still looking like a mean girl.
    “We got Albo promising to own 40% of people’s houses. How good is that idea? Albo Bank? Fair dinkum.”
    …’

  47. ST

    The RBA issues 10 year data detailing private and government borrowings

    I would imagine they are accessible

    What I do retain is an article from The Age by Tim Colebatch, then Economics Editor, Canberra titled “In the red, our mortgage burden soars to $1 trillion”

    Date i do not know

    The RBA data appended showed household debt on 1st January 2010 at $1.226 Trillion, up from $118 Billion in January 1990 and $355 Billion in January 2000

    Total private debt went from $320 Billion to $662 Billion to $1.923 Trillion

    Government went from $39 Billion to $37 Billion to $73 Billion being debt to financial institutions

    This sheer level of private debt and its escalation was on the table at Xmas 2007 when the work shopping was undertaken courtesy of certain short selling activities in the USA, and the warning signs of what was the GFC

    Hence go fast and go hard – including remitting $1,000- to all who had actually remitted tax instead of the consideration of tax cuts, which would have dripped into the economy

    Plus there was the longer term to consider, having inherited Howard’s bribe tax cuts

    So there you go!!

  50. Looks like the Guardian article on Murray wasn’t shown to their lawyers first.

    Perhaps someone at the venue has a video?

Comments Page 15 of 20
1 … 14 15 16 … 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *