The Australian now has the full suite of projected seat results from the YouGov MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, conducted April 14 to May 7 from a sample of 18,923. Usings its data to model results based on electorates’ demography, rather than just the relatively small number of respondents from a given electorate, it projects Labor to win a clear majority of 80 seats, with the Coalition to win 63, the Greens one and others seven.
Seats projected as Labor gains are Bennelong, Lindsay, Reid and Robertson in New South Wales, Chisholm and Higgins in Victoria, Brisbane in Queensland, Pearce and Swan in Western Australia, Boothby in South Australia, and Bass in Tasmania. However, some of these are 50-50 calls on two-party preferred that are identified as leaning fractionally to either side. This includes Bennelong and Lindsay, with Longman, Ryan and Sturt identified as remaining with the Coalition, and Corangamite as a potential Labor loss.
As noted in yesterday’s post, the model also projects Kooyong and Goldstein as teal independent gains from the Liberals, and for all existing cross-benchers to retain their seats. While Brisbane is listed as a clear Labor win, its near tie on the primary vote between Labor on 29% and the Greens on 28% suggests either could be the one to ride over the Liberal National Party on 36% with the preferences of the other.
Rolling its results into state totals produces the following:
• In New South Wales, Coalition 36.4% (down from 42.5% in 2019), Labor 37.7% (up from 34.6%), Greens 9.3% (up from 8.7%), United Australia Party 3.5% (up from 3.4%) and One Nation 4.6%.
• In Victoria, Coalition 34.7% (down from 38.6%), Labor 36.5% (down from 36.8%), Greens 12.1% (up from 11.9%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.6%) and One Nation 3.8%.
• In Queensland, Coalition 39.1% (down from 43.7%), Labor 29.7% (up from 26.7%), Greens 11.9% (up from 10.3%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.5%) and One Nation 8.8%.
• In Western Australia, Coalition 38.1% (down from 45.2%), Labor 35.7% (up from 29.8%), Greens 12.7% (up from 11.6%), United Australia Party 2.3% (up from 2.0%) and One Nation 5.3%.
• In South Australia, Coalition 35.7% (down from 40.8%), Labor 38.5% (up from 35.4%), Greens 10.0% (up from 9.6%), United Australia Party 3.2% (down from 4.3%) and One Nation 5.2%.
• In Tasmania, Coalition 30.6% (down from 34.6%), Labor 32.4% (down from 33.6%), Greens 10.2% (up from 10.1%), United Australia Party 2.2% (down from 4.8%) and One Nation 4.2%.
These numbers for the most part line up reasonably well with BludgerTrack, except in South Australia where BludgerTrack has both major parties quite a bit higher on the primary vote. The Labor numbers are also lower than in BludgerTrack from the five biggest states, ranging from a 0.7% difference in New South Wales to a 2.9% difference in Western Australia.
zoomster re lizzie
No particular words from me, just please pass on the appreciation the Bludger community shares for her gracious presence among us.
“Firefox says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 6:08 pm”…
Given those Greens policies, it’s crystal clear that you are going to vote ALP2, Firefox…. isn’t it so?
Patrick Bateman –
My interpretation was that ‘build trust’ would mean sticking to action within their pre-election promises. Of course that includes stuff that they’ve been explicitly campaigning on – like FICAC, and the other things you mentioned.
They’ve also said they wouldn’t be raising taxes. So they’ll be sticking with that.
The areas of taxation/revenue saving that they have talked about is in terms of multinational company tax avoidance and significantly cutting back on public service outsourcing. Hopefully there is a bit they can do in these areas.
So there is stuff that Labor have promised to do, and they have a fair amount they can do within that, but … I agree with the ‘build trust’ argument that they will not step outside of what can clearly covered by what they have said in their election commitments, and that means keeping the stage 3 tax cuts. As frustrating as that is for almost all concerned.
How does the ALP approach taxation reform (or any other type of significant reform) now? I don’t know – take some sort of taxation inquiry/summit to the next election and somehow leaving open taxation increases? Make a strong enough case that can somehow survive the inevitable whole-of-media scare campaign? It’s tough.
Fuck me, I just got a David Coleman for Banks ad on YouTube – he looks to have aged ..
Here’s the link to tonight’s livestream (11pm AEST):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ws0iPDSqI4
Carson63000 – thanks mate, good to know your Dad switched over to the right side of the fence.
Interestingly in the seat of Berowra, there has been no letterboxing from the Liberals nor from the Greens. Julian Lesser probably thinks it is so safe that he doesn’t need to do too much, at least the young Labor candidate is having a go this time.
Zoomster,
It was an honour to have shared Lizzie’s thoughts over the years, and her presence is missed.
TIL that in 2021 tertiary fee debt comprised 2.1% of household debt.
I haven’t found information after a quick search of how much it has grown over the past 30 years or whether it comprises a greater proportion of that debt today than 30 years ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/video/2022/may/12/kevin-rudd-calls-peter-dutton-an-idiot-over-china-comments-video
@Trent Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 5:37 pm
Without an explanation from the desginers of the model we are just guessing here. But I would imagine they would have had one set of demographic-voting dataset to apply to ALP-LNP contests and another demographic-voting dataset to apply to LIB-IND(Teal) contests.
As for the apparent discrepancy in the voting intention ratings between Higgins and MacNamara, I don’t know. Maybe it’s because the independents in these seats are different in terms of what demographic profile would give them their greatest and least support.
zoomster @ #721 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 6:31 pm
Thank you zoomster. I’m sure there are Bludgers with better wordsmithing than me, but all I can say is that I wish I knew her in person rather than as just an anonymous person on a screen. She sure is missed. Bigly!
As sprocket mentioned at 6:24pm
Abbott comes out to bat for Deves
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2022/2022/05/12/tony-abbott-katherine-deves/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020220512
Watch the final nail being driven into the coffin.
How political parties manipulate the media | ABC News.
https://youtu.be/m7TJFzjlBO4
I’ve been watching him over the last few weeks and he has been unravelling big time as it becomes more and more clear that Albanese is going to win. He fancies himself as the saviour of the Liberal government and says as much at the beginning of every show. But with reality now beginning to bite he is obviously not coping very well. His type never do when they can’t get their way.
Not worth saying “this will be the issue that puts the final nail into @ScottMorrisonMP Govt’s political coffin”…
bc every single day there’s another situation that hammers in another nail. Sometimes several nails during one presser.
#TrevorSofield
https://t.co/eFGlHupjNQ
Paul Murray self-combusting live on Sky After Dark, yes please!
That blowhard idiot is a joke.
Zoomster
Lizzie is dearly missed. She was always a calming presence on the blog, despite her general anxiety as to the direction of politics and the environment, as well as her declining health.
RIP
The problem for Morrison is that he is the hammer driving each and every nail into his own political coffin.
How do you build trust in Government. It is not hard, actually. Except if you are a Corruption of Thieves:
1. Say what you are going to do and do what you said you were going to do.
2. If you bugger it up, admit it, apologize for it, and fix it.
3. Tell the truth.
4. Set up an independent ICAC.
5. Nail any crooks that have got through the cracks to the wall.
6. Operate transparent processes in programs and regulatory activity.
7. Acknowledge that some things are too hard either politically or practically.
8. Be upfront about the limits of government.
9. Have real empathy for real people.
10. Don’t abuse people.
11. Have some principles and do your best to operate according to those principles.
Here in the new electorate of Hawke the only party/candidate material we have received is from the ALP candidate. Don’t have any idea ofant other candidates
BK @ #637 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 4:34 pm
Thanks for that, BK..
I live in Mayo, and was somewhat disappointed to read the report that Rebekha was going to support Morison in a hung parliament. Glad to hear she was verballed..
Silver Bodgie at 7.07
I started watching the clip..seemed OK…but I couldn’t get my fury with the ABC’s participation in anti-Labor bias during this campaign out of my head, so I stopped for the sake of my stress level…
This is classic . The Ruddster is in Higgins with the Labor candidate, and is interviewed by SkyNews – hilarity ensures…
https://twitter.com/mrkrudd/status/1524667385243783169?s=21&t=devNqFM0deRbRzetAcb2Sw
It’s encouraging to know that in my House of Reps constituency in Queensland the Greens candidate, Libby Watson, is in a pretty good position to come second on primary votes and then defeat the LNP incumbent with the help of Labor voter preferences. I did some door-knocking with her during the 2020 Queensland state election campaign. I can say unequivocally that she’d be an effective MP who fights tirelessly for the people.
I love this comic strip about preferential voting:
https://www.chickennation.com/voting/?fbclid=IwAR2JmubIs3FyiKUkooUjUTdmk_Fzffyjz4Z4_AZy80kYi-5c7TvXHGTH4_4
Victoria @ #764 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 7:14 pm
Yes, a calming presence, a guiding hand, a good heart. Always interesting. I miss lizzie.
Snappy Tom @ #768 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 7:18 pm
Yes they all like to be on the drip.
Evan @ #763 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 7:11 pm
Yuk. Don’t fall for his schtick. Don’t click. Give him nothing.
“Given those Greens policies, it’s crystal clear that you are going to vote ALP2, Firefox…. isn’t it so?”
***
This question is an obvious troll considering how many times I’ve answered this already. Why do the Labor Right feel the need to play these silly immature games all the time?
Does being told that the Coalition are even worse than Labor really make it any easier to support a party that is making the climate crisis worse by backing coal and gas? Does it make it any easier to support Labor when they would rather team up with the Coalition to give tax cuts to the rich than join with the Greens to raise JobSeeker and the Pension above the poverty line?
Given those Greens policies, it’s crystal clear I’ll be voting for the Greens.
My preferences will be as follows…
GlenO says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 4:55 pm
And apparently you don’t understand how the system works, since you seem to think that supply is given in the Senate. It’s given in the House. But sure, keep making up nonsense.
Supply has to pass both the House and the Senate. I well recall what transpired in 1975 when the Lying Reactionaries in the Senate refused passage to the Supply Bills.
The Greens have promised not to oppose the passage of Supply in the Senate. This is the only thing that can be said in their favour.
Wow, Rudd’s interlocutor on that SkyNews clip is the complete knucklehead, what. Hilarious.
spr
The Ruddster taking the piss big time.
Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 7:25 pm
Evan @ #763 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 7:11 pm
Paul Murray self-combusting live on Sky After Dark, yes please!
That blowhard idiot is a joke.
Yuk. Don’t fall for his schtick. Don’t click. Give him nothing.
________
My teeth clench when the fat fool starts running his mouth. I want to fight him.
Boerwar @ #766 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 7:16 pm
Good comment.
The truth is missing re Australia enabling the biggest emitters with our fossil fuel exports.
There needs to be empathy shown to those living below the poverty line.
I wasn’t aware that Lizzie had died. She was a lovely person. Vale.
Firefox @ #775 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 7:25 pm
What are the three independents offering ..?
Time for a look at media ownership together with some clout to bring the “good ole boys” to heel.
What they do is called bullying!
Looking forward to the our new government treating Sky/Murdoch the same way as KRudd did today.
Nicholas at 7.22
Upnorth will be delighted that Libby is a hyphenator: Elizabeth Watson-Brown!
Not heard who will be on election night panels but if Paul Murray fronts Sky it might be worth watching for the LOL’s but last time he went to the LNP function.
From John Roskam’s article in the AFR:
Inevitably Australia will end up like the United States where the 10 wealthiest congressional districts are represented by Democrats.
New York’s 12th congressional district covering the east of Manhattan has one of the highest per capita incomes of any district in the US. In the 1950s, it was represented by a Republican. But the district has changed. At the 2020 election it voted 82 per cent Democrat and 16 per cent Republican.
Basically writing off Kooyong and Wentworth. I think he’s probably right.
Renshaw could be the first Labor member for North Sydney since Billie Hughes!
Mexicanbeemer @ #632 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 5:02 pm
That’s quite a different argument. And also irrelevant.
Look back at the link I provided again – specifically, look at Figure 4.5. It has the trends in voting patterns from year to year, for young people. In 2007, something like 35% of young people voted Liberal, and another 5% for “other”, so Labor+Greens was only 60% or so. That was in a landslide Labor victory election. In 2019, where the Liberals won, Labor+Greens got over 80%.
And pre-Greens, Labor tended to get around 47-55%.
So it’s pretty clear that the trend for young people is in favour of Labor+Greens. And note that this can’t be explained away as “young people be young people” – if that were valid, then the 18-35 group would consistently favour the left. Instead, it’s increasing pretty smoothly from one election to the next, and has been since 2004, with the one outlier instance of 2013 (if you remove that one election, it continues to grow, or at least doesn’t noticeably decrease in any election). Also note that the “others” in 2013 was much higher, not just because of right-wing parties, but also left-wing parties.
Got a nice call from Cathy on behalf of Catherine Renshaw
It’s interesting that 7:30 is doing a bit on Interest Rates.
I don’t think they will examine the personal responsibility angle of being leveraged up the wazoo.
Local taxes fund the local governments.
State and territory taxes fund the state and territory governments.
Federal taxes don’t fund anything but they are extremely important. They create massive demand for the federal government’s currency. They enable the Australian dollar to function as a currency as opposed to being a worthless thing that nobody needs.
The Australian dollar isn’t backed by gold or some other precious metal or commodity. It isn’t backed by another government’s currency. It isn’t backed by “trust”. It’s backed by the federal government’s enforcement of federal tax liabilities. Tens of millions of people and businesses have to get their hands on the currency in order to meet their tax obligations. That’s how the system works.
If the federal government stopped enforcing those tax liabilities the demand for its currency would disappear.
So please pay your federal taxes. But don’t claim that the federal government faces a financial constraint and needs to earn, save, or borrow its own currency. That is completely untrue and it gets in the way of good economic policy.
Joe2
@eatatjoe2
·
1h
The whole media campaign against ALP, by Liberals, has been based on rhyming the mispronunciation of
@AlboMP
surname. He says it here. Morrison makes a point of getting it wrong as part of his standard racist dog whistling. #auspol
https://twitter.com/i/status/1524606566074249217
“What are the three independents offering ..?”
***
Not much good, they aren’t Teals and all seem to be of the right. One of them (Sharples) is even a former dis-endorsed One Nation candidate… Enough said lol
And now 730 has some withering shithead narrating how campaigns are managed to look good in the media. FMD, 730 acting holy than thou. The quicker we see the back of Leigh Sales and her team the better.
Hopefully a real journalist takes over.
So smirko signed a document for the sale of darwin
Billy Hughes had already ratted when he represented North Sydney.
He was the member for West Sydney when an ALP member but had to go to Bendigo to get a safe seat in 1917
Woke-pc-thug,
Pitty that didn’t get a question at the debates.