Anthony Albanese will today conduct Labor’s campaign launch today, a fact that I wouldn’t normally consider worth mentioning, such has been the decline of the ritual’s significance over the last few decades. However, Labor has increased the chances of the event being noticed by holding it in Perth, which will at least give his profile a badly needed boost in that city, where Labor is counting on picking up two or possibly three seats.
Elsewhere:
• The second leaders’ debate of the campaign will be hosted by the Nine Network next Sunday and moderated by Sarah Abo of Nine’s 60 Minutes, with questions posed to the leaders by Chris Uhlmann, David Crowe and Deb Knight, respectively of Nine’s television, print and radio arms.
• Labor’s how-to-vote cards can now be found on the candidate pages on its website. The Greens are second on all Senate tickets except Tasmania, where they are behind the Jacqui Lambie Network, presumably in the hope that the party will deprive a right-wing minor party of a place (or, less likely, third-placed Liberal Eric Abetz) while Labor and the Greens win three seats between them as before. As far as I can tell, Labor has the United Australia Party second last and One Nation last in every lower house seat with the curious exception of Dawson, where the United Australia Party is third behind Katter’s Australian Party and ahead of the Greens, which as far as I can see stands no chance of accomplishing anything other than compromising Labor’s national anti-Palmer message.
• Having spoken with “15 Liberal MPs in and outside the Morrison cabinet who are familiar with the Coalition’s election strategy and internal polling and who have campaigned in these seats”, James Massola and Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald report the party is “increasingly nervous” that it will lose Kooyong, Goldstein, North Sydney and Wentworth to teal independents. After spending the earlier part of the campaign in marginal seats in both Sydney and Melbourne, Josh Frydenberg will spend the remainder of it defending his own seat of Kooyong.
• Mark Ludlow of the Financial Review quotes Peter Beattie saying Labor has “lowered its expectations” in Queensland, and says Labor is “now working to ensure there is no net loss of seats in the state”. Labor nonetheless remains hopeful in Brisbane and Longman. Similarly, the previously noted Age/Herald report relates that “strategists on both sides now believe it’s possible no seats will change hands in Queensland”, and further offers that the Liberals are targeting Labor-held Blair, though perhaps in hope more than expectation.
• Liberal attacks ads portraying Anthony Albanese as a puppet of Dan Andrews reportedly reflect hopes that hostility towards the Andrews government over COVID lockdowns has damaged Labor enough in outer suburbia to put McEwen, Corangamite and Dunkley in play. Paul Sakkal in the Sunday Age reports that “internal Liberal Party research in seats stretching from Frankston in the east to Geelong in the west shows Andrews’ net favourability rating is between negative 10 and negative 20”. However, the report relates the view of Redbridge Group pollster Kos Samaras that the Liberals are “barking up the wrong tree because his polling suggests state Labor’s vote is, on average, 7% higher than federal Labor’s in seats with geographical overlap”.
• Josh Zimmerman of the Sunday Times reports that “internal polling” credits Labor with a “slight lead” in the key Perth seat of Pearce.
CU in full “Tomorrow Belongs to Me” mode.
Mackellar is in play for the Teals.
https://twitter.com/danilic/status/1520638472528474112?s=20&t=MUqX_PxuR2idnppImjYFww
My tip at this stage:
ALP 80
Coalition 62
Indpendents/Greens/Katter etc. 9
Latest thejuicemedia.
https://youtu.be/Gz4IkzM217U
Everyone seems to have forgotten the much reduced tax on EV’s that ALP has included in the package.
“CU in full “Tomorrow Belongs to Me” mode.”
Is that the song written by a Jewish couple to warn of the rise of Nazism and its emotional pitch to prospective recruits? Yes, that is explicitly what I’m trying to explain here.
TheMunz
An expensive (non Tesla) one
At this stage I am keeping an ICE for long trips and using the ev for around the place and charging at home
On a related issue I have tried to get a Tesla battery for the solar panels. I have a 5 KWh system but I am told you need a 7KWh system to charge the battery (not sure if true – getting a second opinion)
The road to zero emissions is coming but still a little way off
Commentariat Uprising @ #841 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 4:36 pm
I’ll never delude myself into thinking that some people won’t be angry at certain policy decisions. Can’t please everyone.
I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree on the number of those displeased. I do hope that some day they can move on and not be angry for the rest of their lives. Life is too short.
Re ‘stupid’ people. I’m not going to lie. Those who get sucked in to Clive Palmer and Craig Kelly and the like are… well.. not being kind to themselves.
The anti vaxxer, religious right who live in the Dandenongs in their hovels giving all their money to the Pentecostal Bible group (and paying their Liberal Party memberships to keep Sukkar in control of the Victorian Division) vote for who they are told to vote for
This is where the highest Covid infection rates are – by a long, long way
Fortunately of the overall population they are few on the ground
Families, including well to do neighbours of mine, have had their relationships with their children terminate at the parents decision, the children all about God and anti vaccine (along with everything else)
The only social circle of these people is their Bible Group
The God makes babies brigade
Apologies if posted before before but this is funny from Jason Clare……
https://twitter.com/SquizzSTK/status/1520613877188218880
Rex Douglas says:
I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree on the number of those displeased. I do hope that some day they can move on and not be angry for the rest of their lives. Life is too short.
__________
I think most of the real anti-Dan stuff was Liberal partisan produced. But I believe there was some measure of a similar sentiment in safe Labor seats that will be shown in the UAP vote there. Not enough to get Andrews thrown out of course.
All tinsel, no tree? Sounds familiar.
I am far more interested in Andrews and Crown Casino however, by the looks of things the tracks have been covered, the smokescreens deployed.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 4:04 pm
“Australians won’t thank Albo for a spendathon when interest rates are +3% in 18 months time”
As opposed to the LNP’s massive spendathon to date (and as promised – & soon to be)??
It’s 2019…Labor puts up some thoughtful polices….Policies decried by Liberals and media friends….
Labor loses the election…
Three more years of appalling Liberal-National government.
It’s 2022…Labor decides to keep policy cards close to chest…
Liberals and their media friends go troppo shrieking “Where are your polices? Where is the money coming from……… ad nauseum.
It’s still 2022 and Labor announces modest policy to help first home buyers…………………
Liberals and their friendly media……………”It won’t work…….because…………..well because………………..”
nath @ #856 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 4:57 pm
You might have to one day concede that Dan is clean.
That’s not to say some of those who hitch a ride with him are not though.
How to launch a political campaign 101!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1520646499264212992
i offered a “banked” ALP 78 result a couple of weeks ago just to gauge confidence levels here, no takers (ie most felt that was lowside). Just wondering if anyone would take it now if offered?
do we have a designated tipping contest author? this is going to be a doozie in terms of bragging rights i reckon. 2007 was one i remember being enthusiastically partaken in by many… since then not so much
Snappy tom
Autumn is quite lovely in melbourne town.
Scott Morrison on that text messaging SCANDAL!
https://youtu.be/WNKp3p6X-3E
That will work well. Our 5yo grandson knows more about my smartphone than I do.
“Australian’s will not thank Albo for the spendathon…………….”
Oh boy, and what is the current LNP debt from this so-called economically smart government?
*Inflation running at 5.1%
*Real wages stagnant and going backwards
*Cheap money soon to be at an end
*Defence policy in disarray in the Pacific and with China
*Five billion (not million) wasted on unwanted submarines
(Add to list……………………………)
You mean to say there are still people out there who think we are “doing well” under this very old and decrepit LNP government?
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 5:01 pm
nath @ #856 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 4:57 pm
I am far more interested in Andrews and Crown Casino however, by the looks of things the tracks have been covered, the smokescreens deployed.
You might have to one day concede that Dan is clean.
That’s not to say some of those who hitch a ride with him are not though.
_________
The reporting around Andrews and Crown was troubling. Ministers backgrounded that it was verboten to raise Crown in Cabinet.
What I would like, is a RC into Crown, covering it from inception, looking at all governments and their relationships with Packers’ entity.
There is plenty of evidence to suggest there are serious issues there. Labor is not immune. Starting from when Bracks accepted a 100k donation from Packer and suddenly dropped its promise to restrict Crowns’ operations back in 1999.
Expat I feel 78 is still about right – but I think there will be one Sophie mirabella – I lost my seat when we won govt winner.
I’m thinking Terri butler – but it could be kk or Michelle Rowland.
My revised prediction as of 1 May
Lab gain from Coalition: Chisholm, Boothby, Reid, Bass, Pearce, Swan
Coalition gain from Labor: Blair, Gilmore, Eden-Monaro
IND gain from Coalition: Wentworth, North Sydney, Kooyong
Coalition regains Hughes and Dawson
Totals: Coalition 70, Labor 72, others 9 (Katter, Sharkie, Wilkie, Bandt and 5 teals)
Hung parliament, no overall control, possible snap second election
In totally unrelated news, I watched the movie ‘Moneyball’ for the second time last night. Semi-biographical pic of a guy named Billy Beane and how he changed baseball with statistics. Took a low budget team (Oakland A’s) and made some really big records based upon the method. The Jonah Hill character is an amalgamation of a couple of characters, but one that had a specific part to play. Even the person it’s primarily about just says it doesn’t make him comfortable having other people play him, but he loved Hill’s take on it. Brad Pitt is great. Pretty much always is though.
Recommend it if you’re into that thing.
nath @ #866 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 5:06 pm
I think you’ve just got a single vendetta. 😆
Pi @ #869 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 5:09 pm
Excellent film.
Lars Von Trier @ #806 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 3:58 pm
L’arse, As if anyone gives a flying **** about anything you decide to say you think.
We are all awake to your your unctuous simulated rapport, your smarmy fake sincerity, your studied spurious concern, your odious false empathy, your dissembled trumped-up compassion, your nauseating sham bonhomie.
And, of course, your consistently demonstrated lack of analytical ability, and compulsive lying.
Rex Douglas says:
I think you’ve just got a single vendetta
____________
Not at all. I think the Andrews government has been pretty good. I’m just not going to roll over on important issues just because he’s keeping the Liberals out.
On the other hand, it’s clear that you have some bizarre fascination with him that is blinding your usual well justified cynicism. What happened to you man? Your ass used to be beautiful.
You just don’t use the same butter, Nath.
Expat Follower @ #865 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 5:02 pm
Are you kidding!?! I wouldn’t tip the sun to rise tomorrow morning after 2019. And anyone who ventures ‘educated guesses’ is having a lend of themselves.
Yabba employing his Mensa skills at copy and paste. well done sir.
Jan says:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 4:57 pm
All tinsel, no tree? Sounds familiar.
===================
Jan-Simon – are you on the mend digger? I think your week of Jan is nearly done. Unless you are enjoying it.
The real question of the day is not whether the commentators, or the attendees, or the viewers or voters liked The Launch but….what did Bluey think?
citizen says:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 5:04 pm
That will work well. Our 5yo grandson knows more about my smartphone than I do.
PM’s plan for stricter tech controls to help parents
Smartphones and tablets will have to come with parental controls that are easier to activate and harder for kids to get around. (DT)
Ya
Sorry grandpa Morrison has added a password that if you don’t know I can’t help. Like that is a good idea.
Eden-Monaro ain’t flipping Freystrodamus …
But it’s funny you’ve managed to twist things to make sure it ends up in minority, lol.
I said I wouldn’t engage with you, but that was it.
I said I wouldn’t make a strong call until the end of this week. My current feel is Labor wins majority – but too soon to determine the scale.
My own view is 2019 damaged people too deeply for many to see what’s before their eyes – and it’s been there for a while.
I won’t go “but 2019?!” – if you see something, say something.
Can boy people be Teals too?
Freya…For goodness sake, tell us which chooks entrails, tea leaves, crystal balls, playing cards, runes you are getting your rubbish from so we can do a fact check….What is wrong with the opinion polls?
Your “predictions” are about as possible of throwing a dart at a board – blind folded…..
nath @ #873 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 5:12 pm
It still is …!
Listen, Dan is a socialist leftie existing in a political bubble full of neo-libs. He has to ‘get things done’ is a very strategic way that doesn’t see him turfed out by those internal and external neo-libs.
Look at the big picture. Crown is being cleansed. Vic Labor is being cleansed. It won’t happen overnight, but it is happening.
Daniel Andrews ‘gets things done’ … eventually.
“ Coalition gain from Labor: Blair, Gilmore, Eden-Monaro”
Doubt the Libs will beat Kristy McBain in Eden-Monaro. Kristy McBain is well liked and the Lib candidate hasn’t had the time to build up his profile.
Sorry, should have said it makes him uncomfortable. But yeah, I think it was clear it was a mistake.
nath @ #880 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 5:15 pm
That’s not fair! I changed the order, just for you.
And you didn’t even notice. Ha!
There are plenty of new customers who deserve to be well informed about the self-appointed balloon prick.
I am sure L’arse appreciates his favourite sniffer jumping to his defence.
Why are you so intimidated by Mensa? All it indicates is an ability to think straight.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-01/rods-heroin-addiction-victorias-decriminalisation-debate/100937358
Not sure what this ABC journalist think, but you are going to struggle using a plastic spoon to cook up heroin.
Wot/ No gays in Mensa?
Day 20
Bluey thought that the MSM actually did some reasonable reporting of Labor’s housing policy.
There are possible candidate transgressions involve possible illegal endorsements of Freydenberg by charities. Bluey reckons that once might just have been a coincidence. Charities are one national area Bluey would like to see a root and branch clean out it is in the charity sector.
Amanda Stoker apparently promoting abortion restrictions at an anti-choice Rally.
Jo Dyer has disentangled herself from the toils of S44 and may now take her seat if elected.
Deves has done yet another runner from the remotest prospect of answering media questions. Bluey reckons smart move.
Bluey notes that there are an increasing number of opinionators doing a same-same Labor and Liberal/National same same end run. Bluey thinks that some of these idiots are well-meaning but reminds them that the Coalition is an incompetent Corruption of Crooks. Labor is not. It is that simple.
Dear readers you will have noticed that NONE of the ‘tests’ applied to the major parties are being applied to the Teals. Bluey has applied some of these tests to the Teals for his own amusement. (Bluey reckons he did this before his bosom buddy Hendo came out with the same line in the OZ.)
Gender balance: 18 out of 20 Teals are women. FAIL
Blond balance: 8 out of the 18 female Teals are blond. FAIL. FoxyWoxies?
Ethnic balance: no obviously Indigenous, Asian or African Teals. WONA. FAIL.
Age balance: one looks +65. The rest appear to be clumped around 35-40. FAIL.
Urban/non-urban balance: Extremely heavily concentrated in inner urban electorates. FAIL.
NESB. Overwhelming majority are anglophones from anglophone parents. FAIL.
Log Cabin test: None. FAIL.
Representative employment test: Overwhelmingly elite white collar. FAIL.
Polices costed. None. FAIL.
Policies budgeted for: None. FAIL.
Comprehensive suite of policies: None. FAIL.
Chris Kenny reckons that our political debate has turned mindlessly vicious. Bluey reckons mirror mirror on the wall.
Despite the positive coverage of the housing policy and a Good Launch, Bluey detects no movement at the station. He predicts within MOE movement in numbers for the next set of polls.
Score for today. Zero all.
Cumulative score: Morrison 2, Albanese 4, Joyce .5
Finally starting to see corflutes around the place now. Bondi is covered in Allegra Spender corflutes, and the Clive party corflutes are back along Bondi Road. They must get taken down only to be put back up again.
There was also a corflute for the Labor Wentworth candidate at Bondi. Perhaps more in hope than anything 😀
The longer this campaign goes on the less it looks like the Liberals will pick up any seats.
Oakeshott countrysays:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 4:44 pm
Good.
It is a pity we are at the end of a growing queue. I have committed myself to ordering a model Y when I can. My last car purchase I expect so intend to indulge.
Expect to see a lot of “made in China” before the others get their act together.
From your intended use, overnight charging at off peak rates will not be much of an issue.
ItzaDreamsays:
Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 5:17 pm
They’re probably more accepting of trans than the Liberals, but they are rebelling against the boys’ club.