Sunday’s best: campaign launches, leaders debates, how-to-votes and more

Including a fair bit of second-hand inside dope on where the parties see their main threats and opportunities.

Anthony Albanese will today conduct Labor’s campaign launch today, a fact that I wouldn’t normally consider worth mentioning, such has been the decline of the ritual’s significance over the last few decades. However, Labor has increased the chances of the event being noticed by holding it in Perth, which will at least give his profile a badly needed boost in that city, where Labor is counting on picking up two or possibly three seats.

Elsewhere:

• The second leaders’ debate of the campaign will be hosted by the Nine Network next Sunday and moderated by Sarah Abo of Nine’s 60 Minutes, with questions posed to the leaders by Chris Uhlmann, David Crowe and Deb Knight, respectively of Nine’s television, print and radio arms.

• Labor’s how-to-vote cards can now be found on the candidate pages on its website. The Greens are second on all Senate tickets except Tasmania, where they are behind the Jacqui Lambie Network, presumably in the hope that the party will deprive a right-wing minor party of a place (or, less likely, third-placed Liberal Eric Abetz) while Labor and the Greens win three seats between them as before. As far as I can tell, Labor has the United Australia Party second last and One Nation last in every lower house seat with the curious exception of Dawson, where the United Australia Party is third behind Katter’s Australian Party and ahead of the Greens, which as far as I can see stands no chance of accomplishing anything other than compromising Labor’s national anti-Palmer message.

• Having spoken with “15 Liberal MPs in and outside the Morrison cabinet who are familiar with the Coalition’s election strategy and internal polling and who have campaigned in these seats”, James Massola and Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald report the party is “increasingly nervous” that it will lose Kooyong, Goldstein, North Sydney and Wentworth to teal independents. After spending the earlier part of the campaign in marginal seats in both Sydney and Melbourne, Josh Frydenberg will spend the remainder of it defending his own seat of Kooyong.

Mark Ludlow of the Financial Review quotes Peter Beattie saying Labor has “lowered its expectations” in Queensland, and says Labor is “now working to ensure there is no net loss of seats in the state”. Labor nonetheless remains hopeful in Brisbane and Longman. Similarly, the previously noted Age/Herald report relates that “strategists on both sides now believe it’s possible no seats will change hands in Queensland”, and further offers that the Liberals are targeting Labor-held Blair, though perhaps in hope more than expectation.

• Liberal attacks ads portraying Anthony Albanese as a puppet of Dan Andrews reportedly reflect hopes that hostility towards the Andrews government over COVID lockdowns has damaged Labor enough in outer suburbia to put McEwen, Corangamite and Dunkley in play. Paul Sakkal in the Sunday Age reports that “internal Liberal Party research in seats stretching from Frankston in the east to Geelong in the west shows Andrews’ net favourability rating is between negative 10 and negative 20”. However, the report relates the view of Redbridge Group pollster Kos Samaras that the Liberals are “barking up the wrong tree because his polling suggests state Labor’s vote is, on average, 7% higher than federal Labor’s in seats with geographical overlap”.

Josh Zimmerman of the Sunday Times reports that “internal polling” credits Labor with a “slight lead” in the key Perth seat of Pearce.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

982 comments on “Sunday’s best: campaign launches, leaders debates, how-to-votes and more”

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  1. Finally getting my ev next week after ordering in July 21
    The nearest public charge station is 70 kms away

  2. Sexy Rexy:

    “ That’s nice.

    But EV’s are unaffordable for most and unavailable anyway.”

    ______

    Time for you to get out of the bludger cave. EV’s are already ‘this close’ (imagine Maxwell Smart holding thumb and forefinger together) from a shoving price party. Tesla’s ‘model 2/hatchback’ is likely to go into production within 2 years and will retail at USD $25K. But the Chinese owned MG EV SUV already retails for AUD $44K NOW.

    Within 2-3 years EV’s are predicted to reach price parity with ICE equivalents, and not just at the luxury end of the market. Want an EV equivalent of a Toyota Corolla or Mazda 3 for $20K drive away? 2024-25 will see them driving out of showrooms by the tens of thousands.

  3. MB,

    If you actually think Labor are ignoring the problem, then you are as dumb as your posts.

    Health Care is core business for Labor. Always, has been. Problems arise from time to time.

    But no one is actually ever going to be in a position to say the problems in Health service delivery have been delivered in full.

  4. As for Dan Andrews, the people who dislike him were Liberal voters even before the pandemic. I am not sure that an anti Dan Andrews campaign in Victoria will gift Morrison Corangamite or Dunkley or McEwen, it certainly will not help in Goldstein and Kooyong.

  5. Charging infrastructure is pretty bad but you can get by at the moment due to the low number of people that have EVs.

  6. Tazzasays:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 3:51 pm
    “For all the Bludgers pessimising about Labor not winning ANY seats in QLD, I just wanna give you some stats real quick

    1943: Amount of QLD Labor seats won – 60% (6/10 seats) No change
    1972: Amount of QLD Labor seats won – 44.44% (8/18 seats) +1 seat
    1983: Amount of QLD Labor seats won – 52.63% (10/19 seats) +5 seats
    2007: Amount of QLD Labor seats won – 51.72% (15/29 seats) +9 seats

    According to the BludgerTracker, Labor at this stage would win 50% of QLD seats (15/30 seats) by picking up 9 seats (Longman, Leichhardt, Brisbane, Dickson, Ryan, Bonner, Herbert, Petrie and Forde). With this type of track record whenever they win office, IMO I think that Labor winning a TPP of 50.2% is not a fantasy, but maybe a reality.

    But who knows? We’ll just find out on Election Day.”

    Yes, yes, but. Queenslanders love PC Plod – apparently!

  7. Sorry to burst your balloons – thought Albo was ok only.

    Too much I’m gonna spend heaps and everybody is getting a wage rise and not enough about how he would manage the economy and taxes.

    Prob won’t matter at this stage – but bodes badly for his term in government.

  8. “ For all the Bludgers pessimising about Labor not winning ANY seats in QLD, I just wanna give you some stats real quick

    1943: Amount of QLD Labor seats won – 60% (6/10 seats) No change
    1972: Amount of QLD Labor seats won – 44.44% (8/18 seats) +1 seat
    1983: Amount of QLD Labor seats won – 52.63% (10/19 seats) +5 seats
    2007: Amount of QLD Labor seats won – 51.72% (15/29 seats) +9 seats

    According to the BludgerTracker, Labor at this stage would win 50% of QLD seats (15/30 seats) by picking up 9 seats (Longman, Leichhardt, Brisbane, Dickson, Ryan, Bonner, Herbert, Petrie and Forde). With this type of track record whenever they win office, IMO I think that Labor winning a TPP of 50.2% is not a fantasy, but maybe a reality.

    But who knows? We’ll just find out on Election Day.”

    Thanks Tazza.

    I dont think Labor will get anything like 50% of the 2PP in Queensland, but even with something resembling a national swing of say 5%, then IMO most of those 9 seats would be in play (and a few more as well like Flynn), but the question remains: how many – and which ones – will Labor likely pick up? I’m saying anywhere between 2 and 4 gains is a reasonable guess. Buggered if I know which ones will actually fall though.

  9. Evan
    The only poll for Dunkley had a big swing to the ALP.

    Health isn’t a problem in Dunkley because the state government has announced an upgrade of the Frankston Hospital.

  10. Labor has a history of underperforming their polling in Queensland, most dramatically so at the last election.

  11. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 3:41 pm
    Australian Labor
    @AustralianLabor
    ·
    1h
    Today I announce that Labor will build more electric vehicle charging stations so we can close the gaps that are there in the network

    And that means you’ll be able to drive an electric vehicle across the country


    @AlboMP
    #auspol #AusVotes22
    That’s nice.
    But EV’s are unaffordable for most and unavailable anyway.
    …………….
    So let’s do a Morrison, sit on our hands and not do any planning or development for the inevitable expansion in EV’s over the next 10-20 years. (And then use that as an excuse to stay with IC vehicles)

  12. “ Prob won’t matter at this stage – but bodes badly for his term in government.”

    he hasn’t even been swarm in and L’arse is already gaslighting his government.

    I actually think avoiding saying much more than necessary gives him a lot of latitude when in government to set the house in order, without the sense of betrayal that accompanied the 2014 budget for instance.

  13. Hat tip to the poster who invented the practice of “pessimising”.

    It’s a very PB sort of word.

  14. “Yes, yes, but. Queenslanders love PC Plod – apparently!”

    ***

    I remember a Lib leadership poll (don’t ask me which lol) actually said that Morrison was preferred over Dutton in QLD but that Frydenberg was favoured over both of them everywhere else.

  15. To those having a go at MexB, all he is really saying is that any long term incumbent government will be blamed (held accountable) for whatever the current problems are. At the moment Victorians can blame either Federal or State, but it seems likely they will be only be able to blame State in a month’s time. Doesn’t mean Andrew’s will lose, but margins are likely to be trimmed.

  16. Labor aren’t proposing a spendathon as far as I’m aware. The Morrison Government provided a whole pile of handouts just a few weeks ago.

  17. Zwaktyld

    The nation’s hospital system is struggling. And not just due to the pandemic. State Vic Labor invest in the system, but not there are systemic issues which have their genesis at the federal level.

  18. “ Prob won’t matter at this stage – but bodes badly for his term in government.”

    He hasn’t even been sworn in and L’arse is already gaslighting his government.

    What do you expect from that unctuous, self-abasing character? An improvement?

  19. Zwaktyld says:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 4:06 pm

    To those having a go at MexB, all he is really saying is that any long term incumbent government will be blamed (held accountable) for whatever the current problems are. At the moment Victorians can blame either Federal or State, but it seems likely they will be only be able to blame State in a month’s time. Doesn’t mean Andrew’s will lose, but margins are likely to be trimmed.
    ——————————-
    Exactly and i expect the Andrews government will be easily returned with about 50 seats.

  20. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 3:53 pm
    “Finally getting my ev next week after ordering in July 21
    The nearest public charge station is 70 kms away”

    Well done, what did you buy?

  21. “Jim Chambers floated the idea of a late year budget.”

    I’d say it is a certainty if Labor wins government. The current Frydenberg budget does not fix inflation, raise wages or prevent an $80 billion deficit while letting untaxed oil and gas profits sail off into the sunset. It has zero fiscal reforms. It was a shameless vote-buying exercise and everyone knew it.

    Besides, the current budget was cynically brought forward to a historically early delivery date to sneak in one more round of pork before a May election. What mandate did they have to do that? The current budget is a Liberal abuse of office, and Labor is perfectly entitled to replace it as soon as they win office.

  22. I’m a Dunkley resident, Labor should hold this seat pretty easily. Peta Murphy is very visible – does a lot of visits to local schools, community events, markets etc. Coombs has done a couple of token ones too, but at least one recently at a local market ended up with her and her troops getting into a shouting match with locals, wasn’t a good look.

    The Sharn Coombs campaign are spending money on billboards, but the organic signs-in-frontyards are all for Murphy. Other than the farm on Frankston-Dandy Rd that always has a Lib trailer, no matter what election.

    That’s even with the Frankston City mayor trying to force his staff to run Lib events…

  23. Lars Von Triersays:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 3:58 pm
    Sorry to burst your balloons – thought Albo was ok only.

    I can’t see how your opinion bursts anyone’s balloon.

  24. @Itep – it’s one of those things people keep saying and assuming it’s real.

    There are two points re: QLD. Federal Labor has issues in QLD and has for decades.

    Labor over-performed expectations in 2016, even 2007.

    Plus if there’s any historic habit – it’s QLD tends to break hard RIGHT at the end, which has made it very hard to call state and Federal results from polling which usually misses the last minute swing.

  25. Geez the Mexicans are at it full chop today. Like watching a knife fight.

    I blame the cold weather and the odious Daylight Saving, lack of cane toads the fact that they don’t have enough Lord Mayors.

  26. B.S. Fairman says:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 4:19 pm

    Dan Tehan didn’t want to be seen taking a knife to Peter Dutton’s relatives?
    ====================
    I will pay that

  27. Commentariat Uprising @ #762 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 3:28 pm

    Victoria

    “Hatred for keeping covid at bay until enough people were vaccinated?”

    Frankly, yes. Because what that entailed was unprecedented restrictions (including literally the first curfew the city has ever had) and a more threatening police presence, especially in lower income areas.

    I don’t know if you saw the inside of public housing at the time, but it was absolutely apocalyptic. The post stopped working, residents weren’t getting essential medicines sent in, there was screaming and banging on the walls 24/7. It’s easy to blame comfortable suburban middle class people for radicalizing over having to sit inside for a bit, but that’s not really taking into account what a lot of people actually had to go through.

    No-one here would argue that being locked in those public housing towers wouldn’t be absolutely terrible.

    But it just wasn’t an option to let covid spread into an unvaccinated city. Letting it rip at that stage would have seem Melbourne collapse in total dysfunction. Everyone just had to stay home to protect each other.

    State health workers and officials did the absolute best they could to manage everything.

  28. Labor’s help-to-buy housing scheme — in which the government would fund partial equity in new homes (40%) and existing homes (30%) for a maximum of 10,000 low and middle-income applicants a year — will in effect return the federal government to mortgage financing, albeit via equity not lending, and in a limited form (in 2021 there were around 140-50,000 first home buyer loans). Applicants would able to buy out the Commonwealth’s equity when they choose to. Returns from the scheme — which would see the Commonwealth part-own a substantial stock of property — would be directed to social housing construction.

    The scheme will merely add more Commonwealth-funded demand for housing without adding supply, although the one positive design element is that it significantly incentivises the purchase of new housing rather than existing housing stock, meaning applicants could save 10% of the purchase price of a home if they opt for a new build.

    To address the supply side, Albanese also announced a state-local-Commonwealth housing supply council, thought that promises little more than talk about land supply.

    It’s an old-fashioned, economically irrational solution — and likely to be popular exactly for that. It was also of a piece with Albanese’s pitch for a nation that, as he incessantly reminded us, “can do better”.

    His five-part pitch centred on energy investment, including a new commitment to expand electric vehicle charging stations across the country; more investment in manufacturing — including $1 billion to be spent on value-added manufacturing in areas like lithium and nickel; more and more independent infrastructure investment; addressing the gender pay gap and improving tertiary education, including by using local procurement in Commonwealth infrastructure investment; and Labor’s “care” package involving already-announced support for aged care and child care, plus an outbidding of the government on reducing PBS costs, with all PBS scripts to be capped at $30.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/01/albanese-unveils-old-school-labor-platform-in-a-stark-choice-with-the-coalition/

  29. FWIIW- attended forum with Mark Butler and Kristy McBain yesterday. Very impressive, he has the health portfolio covered and was very good with questions from the floor.
    Largely Boomer audience and only saw one (very dejected looking) LNP stallwart/property developer/grazier in attendance…looking forward to locking horns with him giving out HTVs at pre-polling.
    One side issue (given our area/town is set to expand by around 5000 houses in the next 10 years) was that the LNP has no regional developement plan beyond making sure Barnyard gets the nod about any new rail corridors that might be going through any of his future land purchases.

  30. Some nobody, earlier on, suggested that Dutton would come into speculation re Liberal leadership….
    One thing the Liberals are not, is stupid….
    Even they, and their media friends, could sell not sell him, let alone give him away……
    Where do some people invent these fairy tale? Clearly, Fantasy Land……..
    At least Morrison is your bog standard, run of the mill, mongrel Liberal leader, but Dutton?

  31. Victoria at 4.20pm re loving Melbourne’s weather…

    I lived there for a couple of years. Loved the city, the cultural variations, the arts & comedy scenes etc.

    Could not cope with the weather.

    I grew up in central west NSW, used to seriously hot summers and cool, clear winters. We holidayed a lot on NSW mid north coast – mid-autumn days of mid-20s and the same temperature in the water!

    As much as Melbourne’s winter was cold, it was the spring/autmumn I found most disappointing, in addition to the high percentage of overcast days.

    I concluded that I’m solar powered, or reptilian.

  32. Victoria says:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 4:20 pm

    Upnorth

    I actually love Melbourne weather. Unless it gets really hot. Lol
    ========================
    Good on you mate. That’s the spirit. When life gives you lemons make lemonade.

  33. This is the first election since 2007 where the Australian voting public have a chance to eject a PM they “elected” and I think they’re going to take it.

  34. Rex Douglas

    “But it just wasn’t an option to let covid spread into an unvaccinated city.”

    Yes, I know it wasn’t an option. I lived through the thing. You don’t have to tell me it was good policy, it was. But at the same time, it created a general sense of collapse and a significant minority of people were radicalized, and their online presence is the most active right-wing campaigning of the whole election cycle.

    If you want to say these people are stupid, that’s fine and a lot of them are. If you want to write them off as a lost cause, that’s fine too. But certainly don’t delude yourself into thinking that saying “it was good policy” is going to make a lick of difference to people who got shafted in the name of good policy. Different rhetoric is needed to counter this than the condescension that they’ve been exposed to for the last 2 years, in purely practical terms it has not worked.

    And believe me that this isn’t going to die off with this election or even the inevitable Labor win in the state election, this is a long term partisan issue that’s been created, especially with how it’s permeated foreign echoboxes as much as local ones.

  35. Lars running lines on PB to see how they go before unleashing them on an unsuspecting conservative audience.

    They’ll play well to your rusted on base I’m sure Lars. Not sure any swing voters listening today took out it what you are though.

    Lars PB focus group respondent

  36. Well, if the swing ain’t big enough for a seat to change hands in Qld, then it must be massive elsewhere based on the TPP outcome. Either way the current polling points to Labor winning easily, and tbh Morrison and his crew look like beaten favourites right now. Increasingly forlorn and desperate.

    Albo was fine today. Good mix of passion and stability. Home and hosed barring a war here or a terror attack throwing it all into disarray

    ALP 90 plus.

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