Sunday’s best: campaign launches, leaders debates, how-to-votes and more

Including a fair bit of second-hand inside dope on where the parties see their main threats and opportunities.

Anthony Albanese will today conduct Labor’s campaign launch today, a fact that I wouldn’t normally consider worth mentioning, such has been the decline of the ritual’s significance over the last few decades. However, Labor has increased the chances of the event being noticed by holding it in Perth, which will at least give his profile a badly needed boost in that city, where Labor is counting on picking up two or possibly three seats.

Elsewhere:

• The second leaders’ debate of the campaign will be hosted by the Nine Network next Sunday and moderated by Sarah Abo of Nine’s 60 Minutes, with questions posed to the leaders by Chris Uhlmann, David Crowe and Deb Knight, respectively of Nine’s television, print and radio arms.

• Labor’s how-to-vote cards can now be found on the candidate pages on its website. The Greens are second on all Senate tickets except Tasmania, where they are behind the Jacqui Lambie Network, presumably in the hope that the party will deprive a right-wing minor party of a place (or, less likely, third-placed Liberal Eric Abetz) while Labor and the Greens win three seats between them as before. As far as I can tell, Labor has the United Australia Party second last and One Nation last in every lower house seat with the curious exception of Dawson, where the United Australia Party is third behind Katter’s Australian Party and ahead of the Greens, which as far as I can see stands no chance of accomplishing anything other than compromising Labor’s national anti-Palmer message.

• Having spoken with “15 Liberal MPs in and outside the Morrison cabinet who are familiar with the Coalition’s election strategy and internal polling and who have campaigned in these seats”, James Massola and Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald report the party is “increasingly nervous” that it will lose Kooyong, Goldstein, North Sydney and Wentworth to teal independents. After spending the earlier part of the campaign in marginal seats in both Sydney and Melbourne, Josh Frydenberg will spend the remainder of it defending his own seat of Kooyong.

Mark Ludlow of the Financial Review quotes Peter Beattie saying Labor has “lowered its expectations” in Queensland, and says Labor is “now working to ensure there is no net loss of seats in the state”. Labor nonetheless remains hopeful in Brisbane and Longman. Similarly, the previously noted Age/Herald report relates that “strategists on both sides now believe it’s possible no seats will change hands in Queensland”, and further offers that the Liberals are targeting Labor-held Blair, though perhaps in hope more than expectation.

• Liberal attacks ads portraying Anthony Albanese as a puppet of Dan Andrews reportedly reflect hopes that hostility towards the Andrews government over COVID lockdowns has damaged Labor enough in outer suburbia to put McEwen, Corangamite and Dunkley in play. Paul Sakkal in the Sunday Age reports that “internal Liberal Party research in seats stretching from Frankston in the east to Geelong in the west shows Andrews’ net favourability rating is between negative 10 and negative 20”. However, the report relates the view of Redbridge Group pollster Kos Samaras that the Liberals are “barking up the wrong tree because his polling suggests state Labor’s vote is, on average, 7% higher than federal Labor’s in seats with geographical overlap”.

Josh Zimmerman of the Sunday Times reports that “internal polling” credits Labor with a “slight lead” in the key Perth seat of Pearce.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

982 comments on “Sunday’s best: campaign launches, leaders debates, how-to-votes and more”

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  1. It’s hard to see Labor doing worse in Queensland, but it’s quite damning of the party if they’re even in the position that this could be the case.

  2. I think Labor is in with a reasonable chance in Brisbane (my seat). Longman maybe, but it’s actually quite a conservative seat in terms of its attitudes. I don’t know why Dickson is always ignored. Would not at all be surprised to see Dutton struggle. Other than that, there are all the ‘usual suspects’, Flynn, Carpenteria, Forde etc. Absent a really strong national trend, it would take a Qld leader to get them.

    If I had to put my life on it, at this time anyway, I’d say Labor gets 0 to 2 seats.

  3. Jeebus Itep

    It’s hard to see Labor doing worse in Queensland, but it’s quite damning of the party if they’re even in the position that this could be the case.

    So, Queensland is totally dominated by Murdoch media, the ABC has been captured by Murdoch – they read the Murdoch papers headlines out in the morning each day to set the agenda – and well-known Liberal toff Peter Costello controls Nine Entertainment (including the formerly independent media formerly known asFairfax -and yes, it is true that Fairfax, after being bought by Nine Entertainment, never did sign up to the independent media code of conduct).

    So, despite this very evident and unchecked media bias, the problem is that the ALP cannot get their message through?

    I would encourage you all to go and look at what happened to Leon Blum in 1936 when he tried to institute a fair and equable society in France:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Front_(France)

    Look at what happened to Salvatore Allende in Chile when he tried the same: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salvador_Allende, and Bill Clinton was honest enough to tell the world that, yes, the USA had deposed Allende.

    Think things have changed now?

    Rupert Murdoch instigated the same-same campaign in the late 1970s, to disenfranchise any young people who though that their vote might mean something? It has been incredibly successful.

    The young people from Liberal voting families go quietly to the polling booth, and cast their vote for the Liberals, while avowing that they are apolitical.

    The other young people, who are not endowed with inherited wealth, are proud of not voting for either of the bastards.

    Who wins from this scenario?

  4. ‘Net Loss in Qld’ likely also includes the chance of the Greens winning in Griffith? So possibly not as unbad for the LNP as it sounds? Also the three way contest in Brisbane.

  5. Is Howard really a help or a hindrance to the Liberals? Comments like these just beg the question that if there really is no housing crisis why is the coalition funding schemes to help people buy a house?

  6. Further to how badly the media odds are stacked against Labor in Australia:

    I was an early teenager at time, but from a very politically aware family, and I really remember the “It’s Time” campaign.

    To get Whitlam and Labor elected, after 23 years of increasingly shambolic Coalition governments, the whole entertainment industry had to get behind Whitlam, notably in 1972, but also in 1974 to ensure he won the double dissolution election (by 4 seats!) to ensure that Medibank was legislated.

    Those entertainers have ensured that the universal health care system, Medicare, destroyed by Fraser, but reinstated by Hawke, is something that Australians care about, and will vote to protect.

  7. Something that may influence marginal non metro seats is the COVID migration out of cities and into the regions.

    Coastal suburbs and towns within marginal electorates to Sydney’s north and south have gained a significant share of the pandemic-related population drift.

    Australian Electoral Commission enrolment data shows the hotly contested south coast seat of Gilmore where MacCulloch now lives (held by the ALP with a 2.6 per cent margin) has added 5250 voters since the last election. The Hunter Valley seat of Paterson (ALP, 5 per cent) has added 9200, while the neighbouring electorate of Hunter (ALP, 3 per cent) now has almost 7000 more voters than at the last national poll. The perennial marginal seat of Eden Monaro, adjacent to Canberra, (ALP, 0.8 per cent) also experienced robust population growth last financial year – it now has 2300 more voters than in 2019.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/thousands-of-voters-moved-seats-in-a-pandemic-seachange-will-it-affect-the-election-20220427-p5agow.html

  8. I’m still not seeing any seat losses by the ALP in QLD but it’s hard going making gains except in exceptional circumstances (2007 Rudd/QLDer factor). This is an extremely conservative state and a retirement haven for so many and of course the effect of the greying population and conservative voting has already been discussed.

    Additionally, there is the nutcase factor which abounds in QLD (the list of names is too long) which further dilutes the ALP vote and most often returns to the Libs.

  9. Both parties pay lip service only to the housing affordability issue because “solving” it creates more losers than leaving it as is.

  10. “Liberal attacks ads portraying Anthony Albanese as a puppet of Dan Andrews reportedly reflect hopes that hostility towards the Andrews government over COVID lockdowns has damaged Labor”

    Siri, show me ‘own goal’.

  11. The question, though, is if not Queensland, where? Labor need to not only scrape through in a single election but to build a lasting coalition of voters that allows them to win and hold government for a substantial enough period to actually make a difference.

    And whining about the media won’t do a thing.

  12. Lib/nats hold 23 seats in QLD

    They need to find another 53 seats across Australia , with combined primary vote of around 36%

    it will be a early federal election night with the election being called Labor majority government

  13. So, the It’s Time campaign:

    The advertisement: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4RbVFXjJf4

    The supporters of the campaign: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_Time_(Australian_campaign)

    The slogan “It’s Time”, around which the three-stage campaign[2] was built, was conceived by Paul Jones, at the time creative director at Sydney ad agency Hansen-Rubensohn–McCann-Erickson which was handling ALP’s advertising account.[1][3][4] The goal of the campaign’s first stage was to popularise the phrase while the television commercial served as the core element of the second stage. Conceived by Jones, copywriter Ade Casey (then known as Adrienne Dames) and art director Rob Dames, it was directed by Ric Kabriel and produced through Fontana Films, Sydney.[3] The song[5] was written by Jones and advertising jingle writer Mike Shirley, it was arranged as well as produced by Pat Aulton.[4] Lead singer Alison McCallum laid down the foundation track at ATA Studios, Sydney.

    The chorus comprising a “Who’s Who” of Australian entertainment and sport personalities, including Tony Barber, Barry Crocker, Lynette Curran, Chuck Faulkner, Jimmy Hannan, Brian Henderson, Col Joye, Graham Kennedy, Dawn Lake, Bobby Limb, Little Pattie, Bert Newton, Terry Norris, Hazel Phillips, Judy Stone, Maggie Tabberer, Jack Thompson, Jacki Weaver, Kevin Sanders, Ade and Rob Dames, among others, was recorded one day in early spring at either the Hordern Pavilion or Supreme Sound in Sydney’s Paddington with Joye conducting.[1][4] The TV spot mainly shows McCallum and the other singers performing the song, intercut are pictures from Whitlam’s private photo collection. As well as reaching its target demographic—loosely speaking, women and young people—, “the ad reached a far wider and probably quite unexpected segment of the electorate.”[1]

    Fantastic campaign, but think about what an incredible effort was needed to elect a Labor government in Australia in 1972?

    It is no different today, and to all those who say “Labour knows the media is biased against them, and we will not bother voting for them unless they can find a way to cut through to the electorate against the media bias”, then I say: “You are very lazy people. Back in 1972 we did not expect that some political party would magically enact what we wanted, with neo input from “We the people”.”

    So for those of you who want change, and are posting here that the change Labor proposes for this election is not good enough for you, get off your lazy arses and work for change.

    I think it was Barry Jones who recently suggested that the best thing people who think the political process is broken can do is join a political party, any political party, and work for the change they want.

    So stop bloody complaining about how our democracy is broken unless you are willing to get off the couch on the weekends and actually do something to fix the problem.

    And, living in France at the moment, having watched the very real possibility that Marine Le Pen could become president, any of you thinking of voting informal are helping to destroy democracy, by refusing to take part in the process.

    You think something better will come along? No, it will be a “Boot stamping on the Human Face Forever” (ref George Orwell, 1984).

    So get of your precious high-horse and choose a side.

    If you want to vote for government by vested interests and the wealthy, then by all means do so, that is your choice.

    But if you are abstaining from voting in this election, this will ensure that Morrison is re-elected . Hoping something better comes along is incredibly naive.

    If Morrison and friends are in government for the next three years, given the lack of scrutiny and accountability that they have been able to get away with in the last three years, there will be precious little ofAustralia’s democracy left by the time they are finished.

  14. Douglas and milko points out that young people from liberal families March off to the polling booth to vote LNP. I would contend after doing this duty they also often go off to their jobs in the media. It seems now its virtually impossible to hear a left leaning voice on TV. The print media also seems to be stacked with the sons and daughters of the well endowed. Just have look at the high school brigade on the ABC none of them would be familiar my battlers background. It’s well known that being rich is not just about having money it’s also about having connection, when I left school I had myself and very little else.

  15. Cronus:
    “… there is the nutcase factor which abounds in QLD … which further dilutes the ALP vote and most often returns to the Libs”

    Queensland’s nutcase candidates very often *originate* from the Libs (and Nats):

    Hanson
    Palmer
    Katter
    Campbell Newman

  16. ltep @ #9 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 6:44 am

    Both parties pay lip service only to the housing affordability issue because “solving” it creates more losers than leaving it as is.

    That is debatable.

    What’s not in question is having a former Liberal PM out there (and one supposedly as beloved within the party as Howard is, no less) claiming there is no housing crisis not only undermines his party’s own policies inferring there is, but makes him and his mob by association look out of touch.

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Anthony Albanese will promise to slash the cost of buying a home for tens of thousands of Australians as part of a policy under which a Labor government would pay for up to 40 per cent of new houses. The policy will form the centrepiece of Labor’s campaign launch in Perth today as Albanese looks to highlight cost-of-living pressures as a key plank to getting elected.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-announces-policy-to-buy-40-per-cent-stake-in-private-homes-and-tackle-housing-crisis-20220429-p5ah8z.html
    Katherine Murphy has more on this Labor initiative.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/30/labor-to-help-low-and-middle-income-earners-buy-home-with-shared-ownership-scheme
    Mark Kenny opines on what the independents are revealing about government and media failure. He says that, for an objectively failing operation, this big-spending, policy-lite government gets plenty of latitude from its mainly male media pals, and such latitude that was conspicuously short-lived when Labor circumnavigated the global financial crisis just months after it was installed. I give this “Article of the Week” status.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7719077/teal-is-telling-what-independents-reveal-about-government-and-media-failure/?cs=9676
    Neither party has the stomach for hard conversations – and that hurts, says Jacqui Maley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/neither-party-has-the-stomach-for-hard-conversations-and-that-hurts-20220429-p5ah9d.html
    “Morrison’s ‘miracle’ only delivered us pain; now, put your hand up to say he must go”, urges Michael Springer.
    https://theaimn.com/morrisons-miracle-only-delivered-us-pain-now-put-your-hand-up-to-say-he-must-go/
    Greg Barnes tells us that if he were the Attorney General in the next government, he would have three priorities.
    https://johnmenadue.com/if-i-was-the-attorney-general-in-the-next-government-i-would-have-three-priorities/
    The Inclusion Foundation is at the centre of the evolving scandal involving figures from charities endorsing Josh Frydenberg’s re-election campaign, writes Anthony Klan who argues that Frydenberg’s ‘charity endorsements’ likely violate the law.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/frydenbergs-charity-endorsements-likely-violate-the-law-exclusive,16312
    Jon Faine calls for the commercial vultures to be booted from the NDIS, aged care and home care “industries”. He concludes his contribution with, “Unless the rent seekers and commercial vultures are shown the door, none of the essential changes to restore customer-centric care can be made”.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/commercial-vultures-must-be-booted-from-the-ndis-aged-care-and-home-care-20220429-p5ah6i.html
    Paul Sakkal writes that the Coalition has dragged Daniel Andrews into the election campaign – a move the Coalition believes can help unexpectedly snatch three seats in what is shaping as a tight poll.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/is-andrews-a-drag-on-federal-labors-vote-in-the-outer-suburbs-20220429-p5aha1.html
    The SMH tells us that Liberal MPs are increasingly nervous that a teal wave of independents could knock out four high-profile MPs – including Josh Frydenberg – and seriously damage Scott Morrison’s re-election chances.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/frydenberg-under-fire-as-liberal-mps-fear-key-seat-losses-to-teal-independents-20220429-p5ahcr.html
    The Conversation explains how disinformation could disrupt the Australian election.
    https://theconversation.com/heres-how-disinformation-could-disrupt-the-australian-election-177629
    Vulnerable Australians are missing out on adequate healthcare because the Medicare rebate is failing to keep up with the costs of providing services, leading to a critical GP shortage, community health organisations are saying.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/01/vulnerable-australians-missing-out-on-healthcare-as-insufficient-medicare-rebate-drives-gp-shortage
    Rising out-of-pocket health costs are a worry. But the major parties have barely mentioned it, aments Anthony Scott, a professor of health economics.
    https://theconversation.com/rising-out-of-pocket-health-costs-are-a-worry-but-the-major-parties-have-barely-mentioned-it-181595
    The international standards body on human rights has found that the Australian Human Rights Commission should be downgraded in its standing, reports Binoy Kampmark.
    https://johnmenadue.com/political-appointments-and-downgrading-the-australian-human-rights-commission/
    The model of parliamentary democracy which the modern world inherited from Britain is obviously not working properly any more, because the major parties today don’t stand for coherent and reliable policies which reflect fundamental social divisions and opposing interests in our society, argues Jan Bruck.
    https://johnmenadue.com/jan-bruckthe-crisis-of-representative-democracy-bd-23-4/
    Karl Quinn looks at the pressure the ABC and several of its presenters are under.
    https://www.smh.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/biased-against-the-left-or-right-the-social-media-onslaught-targeting-the-abc-20220429-p5ah5k.html
    Peter FitzSimons shares his interview with American crime writer Don Winslow who says he is retiring to dedicate his time to fighting Trumpism and help save democracy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/best-selling-author-quits-to-fight-the-metastasising-cancer-of-trumpism-20220429-p5ah8u.html
    Garbage filled footpaths and spilled into gutters along one of Melbourne’s busiest streets during the week as Moreland City Council workers refused to empty street bins as part of their industrial action over a “rubbish” pay offer.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/rubbish-pay-offer-leaves-garbage-filling-streets-20220429-p5ah9i.html

    Cartoon Corner – sorry, but there are no NineFax cartoons available

    Mark Knight

    From the US






  18. Mark Kenny opines on what the independents are revealing about government and media failure. He says that, for an objectively failing operation, this big-spending, policy-lite government gets plenty of latitude from its mainly male media pals, and such latitude that was conspicuously short-lived when Labor circumnavigated the global financial crisis just months after it was installed.

    Unfortunately I cannot access that article. 🙁

  19. BK

    Thanks as always.

    Another plus for Labor this election, due to Albo’s covid situation, has been the opportunity to show a very strong and also united team to lead the country for the next three years. The leadership disparity between the two parties couldn’t be greater and the vacuum in the Coalition must be genuinely disheartening for them. Labor is in good hands.

  20. “the party is “increasingly nervous” that it will lose Kooyong, Goldstein, North Sydney and Wentworth to teal independents. After spending the earlier part of the campaign in marginal seats in both Sydney and Melbourne, Josh Frydenberg will spend the remainder of it defending his own seat of Kooyong.”…

    … Indeed…
    This election will be remembered by the Liberals as the “Double Whammy”: Bashed by Labor, bashed by the Teals.

  21. Feck off Itep

    Both parties pay lip service only to the housing affordability issue because “solving” it creates more losers than leaving it as is.

    The housing policy announced by Labor last night will help many people on lower incomes enter the housing market: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-announces-policy-to-buy-40-per-cent-stake-in-private-homes-and-tackle-housing-crisis-20220429-p5ah8z.html

    Are you worried about the people who will not be eligible for this scheme, and who will struggle to put a roof over their head?

    Or are you worried that the people who have invested in rental properties to provide their income stream in retirement will be disadvantaged?

    Can you be very specific about what your concerns are about Labor’s policy in this area?

    There are solutions to both concerns, but unless you enunciate exactly what your concerns are, as Fred Dagg ( AKA John Clarke) would have said, “The house is still for sale”*.

    *https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbFlstJ4u8E

  22. Thanks BK.

    I wonder if the stuff about no net gains in Qld is for real? The ALP’s performance in 2019 was very poor and you’d expect that even a “reversion to mean” factor would snare it a seat or two. From a big picture perspective, it’s hard to see why Qld voters would be so relatively enamoured of the LNP or hostile to the ALP in 2022.

    The media negativity towards Labor in Qld doesn’t seem like such a convincing explanation, given the ALP’s success in winning State elections despite it.

  23. Oliver Sutton

    “ Queensland’s nutcase candidates very often *originate* from the Libs (and Nats):

    Hanson
    Palmer
    Katter
    Campbell Newman”

    And don’t forget the likes of Christiansen and Canavan. It must be the combo of heat and rain, we grow loonies like weeds.

  24. ” Mark Ludlow of the Financial Review quotes Peter Beattie saying Labor has “lowered its expectations” in Queensland”…

    We will see what the Queensland result will be…. I still remember when the polls predicted a return of the Newman LNP state government, “just with a decreased majority”… and we all know what happened next.

  25. …and the Vic Liberals’ theory about the Andrews factor delivering them seats in Melbourne, seems about as plausible as their theory that running on African gangs would be a winner in the 2018 State election.

  26. The Qld state Labor Government is not conservative and is fairly radical in some areas, yet the Premier was reelected in 2020 with an increased majority.
    Such a huge disparity between the voter support for federal and state Labor in that state.
    Oh well, if Qld supposedly is such a write off, Albanese might as well ignore it for the next 3 weeks.

  27. Tbh, I’m sanguine about lowered expectations in Queensland as it provides the scenario where any gains are very pleasant surprises, puts Labor in the Underdog position and thus leaves people free to not vote against Labor due to perceived hubris or an expectation that they will win anyway. I’m seeing Reverse Psychology at play here. Well, I think so.

  28. (Confessions says:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 6:15 am

    Is Howard really a help or a hindrance to the Liberals? Comments like these just beg the question that if there really is no housing crisis why is the coalition funding schemes to help people buy a house?)

    John Howard is perfectly correct, there is no housing crisis, if your on a 6 figure salary.

  29. “I still remember when the polls predicted a return of the Newman LNP state government, “just with a decreased majority”… and we all know what happened next.”

    If I recall, the pollsters had the PV more or less correct, but preferences swung much more heavily to Labor than anyone expected.

  30. Douglas and Milko; Media bias doesn’t explain no seats in QLD unless the state polls have been wrong, even latest IPSOS shows a swing, should be 2 seats, votes have to be changing somewhere.

    Only rationalisation for 0 seat result in QLD is there being some campaign genius working for LNP in QLD and not the rest of the country.

    A rationalisation for why people THINK no seats will change is that they are emotionally scared from last election and can’t look at it rationally.

  31. UK news that will surprise no-one

    ‘Leaked paper shows SNP fears over cost of benefits .. SNP ministers have privately voiced concerns about an independent Scotland being able to afford state pensions and unemployment benefits. A secret cabinet briefing paper by Finance Secretary John Swinney, which has now been leaked, revealed fears at the heart of the Government about the state of the country’s finances and the impact on public spending’

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13094979.leaked-paper-shows-snp-fears-cost-benefits/

  32. Thanks BK. That worked.

    Wow, one hell of an article capped by the question of the campaign: “Why are the Liberals so vulnerable in their once safe seats?”

  33. “Only rationalisation for 0 seat result in QLD is there being some campaign genius working for LNP in QLD and not the rest of the country.”

    Plausible scenario: Labor loses Griffith, narrowly third in Brisbane, gains a seat like Longman, swings everywhere else but doesn’t quite make it over the line anywhere. Net 0

  34. Peter Sky News Beattie? That is the chump that has us worried about Queensland. If he is part of the Labor brains trust they deserve to lose seats in Qld. Ridiculous.

  35. I don’t have any concerns about the policy. I was just simply stating an observation of politics of housing in the past 20 or so years.

    Any solution, politically, needs to not decrease the value of houses, as that will lose the votes of those who currently own. People largely vote out of self interest rather than in the interests of others.

  36. So what are Murdoch tabloids up to today? Cartoons of Albo as a Zombie? Screaming headlines of Labor threat to your retirement? Or conversely, ScoMo’s latest pic-fac?

    Under 3 weeks out in 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019 this would have been standard fare. In fact, have we had any Albo cartoons in Murdoch tabloid front pages yet?

    So what do we have:

    Daily ToiletPaper – Lisa Curry’s daughter photo
    Courier Mail – Lisa Curry’s daughter photo
    Herald Sun – this…

  37. C@t

    Are we hearing the little Investment Property piggies squeal on the blog D&M?

    Yep, that is my guess.

    I do not expect any answers to the questions I have posed about why they do not rate Labor’s housing policy as better than that of the Liberals, because the protagonists have skin in the game.

    Heaven help them if “the proles (ref: Prue Goward)” should find a way to buy a house, and deprive them of the rent to which they feel they are entitled to enable them to take those Viking Cruises, on the Rhine and the Danube.

  38. It is supposed liberal strategists who constantly are briefing the media, you never hear from Labor ones, that is something I have noticed.
    In an election campaign, the actual travel itineraries of the leaders and their ministers or Shadow ministers are usually indicative of the actual internal party’s polling, in my view anyway.

  39. D&M,
    You have provided a very interesting tidbit of information today:

    The slogan “It’s Time”, around which the three-stage campaign[2] was built, was conceived by Paul Jones, at the time creative director at Sydney ad agency Hansen-Rubensohn–McCann-Erickson which was handling ALP’s advertising account.

    The name Erickson caught my eye. Could Paul Erickson, ALP National Secretary, be his son?

  40. Look at QLD a different way, LNP had 42% primary last election, this election they are looking at a primary of 37% (32+allocating 5 of the 9 undecided as LNP primaries, which is generous)

    What is the likelihood of a 5% swing against the LNP on primaries, and there being no seat changes ?

  41. BK, Matt Golding puts his up on his Twitter feed – bit late today, must take longer for the 4 panel job

  42. On housing policy what they would do when the massive recession we are rocketing towards bursts the property bubble, but I don’t expect either side would be willing to talk about that.

  43. Interesting polling from the USA….

    Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president?

    WOMEN
    Approve 48%
    Disapprove 43%

    MEN
    Approve 33%
    Disapprove 60%

    (NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, 4/19-26/22)

  44. Living in Queensland you can see how it makes sense to vote State Labor and Federal LNP as a centre-right, materially oriented combination. Also the State LNP is a generally useless combination of property developers and hard line Christians, mixed in with the country rump.

    But in terms of this Federal election, yeah you’d think there would be some rebound to the ALP from 2019 – 3%? Enough to get a seat or two if the cards fall right.

  45. I was just thinking the Liberal and National parties are going the same way of the Republicans in the US: they are becoming the parties of disaffected, uneducated men.

    Women, educated people, especially in metropolitan cities, and people from multicultural backgrounds are shying away from the parties and looking elsewhere – to Labor, Teals etc. This is happening to the Republicans as well, to the extent that the party is unelectable in an increasing number of places/states, but becoming the dominant party in other places.

  46. I told youse after the last election and I will tell you before this election.
    The Greens are, quite rightly, feared and hated for what they intend to do to rural and regional industries, jobs and economies. Labor is tarred with the Greens brush.
    Easy as ABC.

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