Sunday’s best: campaign launches, leaders debates, how-to-votes and more

Including a fair bit of second-hand inside dope on where the parties see their main threats and opportunities.

Anthony Albanese will today conduct Labor’s campaign launch today, a fact that I wouldn’t normally consider worth mentioning, such has been the decline of the ritual’s significance over the last few decades. However, Labor has increased the chances of the event being noticed by holding it in Perth, which will at least give his profile a badly needed boost in that city, where Labor is counting on picking up two or possibly three seats.


• The second leaders’ debate of the campaign will be hosted by the Nine Network next Sunday and moderated by Sarah Abo of Nine’s 60 Minutes, with questions posed to the leaders by Chris Uhlmann, David Crowe and Deb Knight, respectively of Nine’s television, print and radio arms.

• Labor’s how-to-vote cards can now be found on the candidate pages on its website. The Greens are second on all Senate tickets except Tasmania, where they are behind the Jacqui Lambie Network, presumably in the hope that the party will deprive a right-wing minor party of a place (or, less likely, third-placed Liberal Eric Abetz) while Labor and the Greens win three seats between them as before. As far as I can tell, Labor has the United Australia Party second last and One Nation last in every lower house seat with the curious exception of Dawson, where the United Australia Party is third behind Katter’s Australian Party and ahead of the Greens, which as far as I can see stands no chance of accomplishing anything other than compromising Labor’s national anti-Palmer message.

• Having spoken with “15 Liberal MPs in and outside the Morrison cabinet who are familiar with the Coalition’s election strategy and internal polling and who have campaigned in these seats”, James Massola and Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald report the party is “increasingly nervous” that it will lose Kooyong, Goldstein, North Sydney and Wentworth to teal independents. After spending the earlier part of the campaign in marginal seats in both Sydney and Melbourne, Josh Frydenberg will spend the remainder of it defending his own seat of Kooyong.

Mark Ludlow of the Financial Review quotes Peter Beattie saying Labor has “lowered its expectations” in Queensland, and says Labor is “now working to ensure there is no net loss of seats in the state”. Labor nonetheless remains hopeful in Brisbane and Longman. Similarly, the previously noted Age/Herald report relates that “strategists on both sides now believe it’s possible no seats will change hands in Queensland”, and further offers that the Liberals are targeting Labor-held Blair, though perhaps in hope more than expectation.

• Liberal attacks ads portraying Anthony Albanese as a puppet of Dan Andrews reportedly reflect hopes that hostility towards the Andrews government over COVID lockdowns has damaged Labor enough in outer suburbia to put McEwen, Corangamite and Dunkley in play. Paul Sakkal in the Sunday Age reports that “internal Liberal Party research in seats stretching from Frankston in the east to Geelong in the west shows Andrews’ net favourability rating is between negative 10 and negative 20”. However, the report relates the view of Redbridge Group pollster Kos Samaras that the Liberals are “barking up the wrong tree because his polling suggests state Labor’s vote is, on average, 7% higher than federal Labor’s in seats with geographical overlap”.

Josh Zimmerman of the Sunday Times reports that “internal polling” credits Labor with a “slight lead” in the key Perth seat of Pearce.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

982 comments on “Sunday’s best: campaign launches, leaders debates, how-to-votes and more”

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  1. Rex Douglas says:

    Listen, Dan is a socialist leftie existing in a political bubble full of neo-libs. He has to ‘get things done’ is a very strategic way that doesn’t see him turfed out by those internal and external neo-libs.
    I’m still voting for him. I just think the Crown stuff stinks badly. I would like a RC into all Crown’s history. I’m not going to get it though.

    Andrews didn’t need to get into bed with Packer in the first place. Andrews got seduced by Packer’s idea of a huge new Crown Tower, but instead he went on to do the Sydney Casino.

    Never get seduced by a Packer. Or you’ll end up with a Packer up your clacker.

  2. Terri Butler will win for sure same KK. Rudd lost his seat in 96 but that was the landslide to Johnny Howard. We are seeing some pretty effective anti Scomoe ads on high rotation up here, if this bites I think Bowman next door to Griffith, formerly held by the “Lamia”will be right in the crosshairs

  3. Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
    Just remember she is the PM’s hand picked candidate. Having complained that she’s being silenced she now takes a perpetual vow of silence. And this captain’s pick judgment call may contribute to a host of moderate factional Liberals losing their seats. #auspol

    Yep, my view is that Deves does more harm than good for the Liberals.

    They should’ve disendorsed her when they had the chance.

  4. yabba says:

    Why are you so intimidated by Mensa? All it indicates is an ability to think straight.
    Mensa is the worst kind of pompous snobbery. Even the founders of it were less than enamored with the results:

    The society was ostensibly to be non-political in its aims, and free from all other social distinctions, such as race and religion. However, Berrill and Ware were both disappointed with the resulting society. Berrill had intended Mensa as “an aristocracy of the intellect” and was unhappy that the majority of members came from working or lower-class homes, while Ware said: “I do get disappointed that so many members spend so much time solving puzzles.”

  5. cmon C@t we’re going to have to make a best call at some point and stick our necks out?!

    the fun is in the comparing between us and picking over the entrails as the night progresses

    i had a great run in 2007 (Aus) and 2008 (US) but got my ass handed to me in 2020 with the republican overperform… that hurt. Am thus incredibly bearish for the Dems this nov

    i have zero confidence in reading our electorate this time around. i can see a 2010 result, i can see a 2007 result, and i hold out some belief that the baseball bats will settle in place and a whopping upper 80’s seat result could happen.

    i think i would trade several seat gains just to get Frydenburg and Dutton turfed

  6. Not buying the idea that Blair is a probable LNP gain, Shayne Neuman has been MP there since 2007, he’d obviously be a seasoned campaigner by now.
    Eden Monaro- the Liberals picked their candidate far too late, Kristy McBain will retain that seat with a swing to her, my prediction.
    Gilmore, the only Labor seat in the country that might be under threat, then again I think Andrew Constance is a dud campaigner, carrying on from being a dud state transport minister too. Fiona Phillips works that electorate hard, from all reports.
    Forget the BS about Fowler being in danger, it is absolute crap, Dai Lee probably won’t even outpoll the Liberal candidate, let alone get anywhere near Keneally.

  7. @OC:

    “At this stage I am keeping an ICE for long trips and using the ev for around the place and charging at home”

    I’m combining two into one: a PHEV from Mitsubishi. Plenty of EV charge for daily commutes (I’m 12km from parking in town, and most suburban courts are as close) and for my regional trips, I dont have to worry about charge stations. This was supposed to be a project for 2020, but a need for a 7 seater (Mitsubishi didn’t have a 7 seat PHEV then) and a newer car for regional work during covid saw me get the the ICE Outlander as an instant asset right off. The new Outlander PHEV is due next month, but I’ll wait on pricing details before deciding between it, the MG PHEV or the slightly smaller Mitsubishi Eclipse PHEV. Maybe before June 30, but I’m so busy at the moment it may have to wait until later in the year. I also plan to use the car battery in lieu of a tesla wall battery, as both my wide and I have charging options at work, so we should have up to 12 spare KWH of charge to use at home overnight between commutes.

  8. BW…Look, I have a bit of trouble making sense of Bluey’s score card…
    The Sunday Times in Perth, the pale imitation of the even paler West Australian, has now got Albanese closing the gap on “Who Won the Day?” race to 8 for Morrison, 7 for Albanese and 4 draws….
    How can this be so when Morrison was leading 8 Nil after Week 1 of the campaign?..
    Does the Stoke’s lot know something Bluey is missing?

  9. I’ll stick my neck out and put on my partisan Labor hat and predict the following, my gungho prediction ladies and gents:
    Labor gains Swan, Pearce, Boothby, Braddon(suspect Bridget Archer might hang on to Bass), Chisholm, Reid, Robertson(C@t), Longman, Brisbane.
    Teals/Independents gain Wentworth and Goldstein and Curtin.
    If there’s a far bigger swing against Scomo – Labor also gets Casey, Deakin, Leichhardt, Bennelong, Flynn. Teals get Kooyong and Mackeller. Nicholls in Victoria goes Independent from the National Party.
    Page – curious to see what the vote from the Lismore part of it is like.

  10. PaulTu: “Libs announce emergency grant to Lark Distillery in Tas – for those battlers wondering if their $200+ bottles of whiskey will still be available.”

    $200 bottles? Yeah, not many of their bottles are for anywhere near that. If you’re getting an actual bottle for anywhere near $200, you’re likely getting a bloody good deal. You might even need to be a politician.

    Bit over-priced I always thought. Sullivans Cove is much better IMO. Harder to get than Lark these days though…

  11. Didn’t those pair of turkeys from the NSW right Arbib and Bitar get on the Packer clacker payroll not long after destroying the last ALP government. I hope I never hear from this pair ever again.

  12. Tory Shepherd@ToryShepherd
    Albanese: “Alan Tudge and Peter Dutton. The unspeakable and the unthinkable. And then of course, there is Barnaby Joyce, the inexplicable.”

    And the unmentionable in every marginal Liberal seat: Scott Morrison.

  13. One more seat I forgot, Higgins, Katie Allen on a 2.6% margin, nobody is talking about that one. Her primary vote goes below 45%, Labor or the Greens finish 2nd, she’s in trouble I think.

  14. ‘Tricot says:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 5:36 pm

    BW…Look, I have a bit of trouble making sense of Bluey’s score card…
    The Sunday Times in Perth, the pale imitation of the even paler West Australian, has now got Albanese closing the gap on “Who Won the Day?” race to 8 for Morrison, 7 for Albanese and 4 draws….
    How can this be so when Morrison was leading 8 Nil after Week 1 of the campaign?..
    Does the Stoke’s lot know something Bluey is missing?’
    Bluey reckons that the ST has been wRONg for most of the campaign. It STILL has Morrison ahead. Bluey had Morrison ahead after Gaffe Week with Albanese overtaking him and leading since then. Bluey reckons that today was another solid day for Labor. Bluey also thinks the electorate has simply gone to sleep. Bored witless. Not even FUD is shifting them. Bluey reckons the only two things that might just shift votes over the next 20 days is a smashing defeat for Albanese in the debates. Other than that, Labor will form government with a small majority.

  15. That was a great speech by Jason Clare today..

    ..beautifully crafted..

    ..impeccably delivered..

    Labor is blessed with a plethora of very good people..

    ..It’s Time..

  16. Prince planet @ #902 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 5:27 pm

    Terri Butler will win for sure same KK. Rudd lost his seat in 96 but that was the landslide to Johnny Howard. We are seeing some pretty effective anti Scomoe ads on high rotation up here, if this bites I think Bowman next door to Griffith, formerly held by the “Lamia”will be right in the crosshairs

    Agree with this. I think the Greens will probably make gains in Griffith but Labor will make bigger gains and stay ahead of the Greens vote. Don’t detect any panic in party circles.

    Bowman will be interesting – did the dramas over Laming piss off lots of former coalition voters, especially women? Labor candidate looks good on paper but don’t know how strong her campaign has been. Bonner could also be interesting as the Liberal member is pretty ordinary but the demographics probably suit the Libs.

  17. ItzaDreamsays:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 2:47 pm
    Albanese’s ordinary everyman-ness works in his favour I think; he’s real. It contrasts neatly with Morrison’s smarmy smug belief in is own specialness, not to mention his fancy dress party get-outs; he’s fake.

    1996 in reverse.

  18. Evan says:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 5:40 pm
    “One more seat I forgot, Higgins, Katie Allen on a 2.6% margin, nobody is talking about that one. Her primary vote goes below 45%, Labor or the Greens finish 2nd, she’s in trouble I think.’

    I think Sturt (in SA) might be in the mix as well.

  19. Evan’s list looks OK to me. But I don’t really understand NSW. Why would Labor win Reid and Robertson? And wouldn’t the LNP have a good chance in Hunter?

  20. Confessions: I forgot North Sydney, thanks for reminding me.
    I think Trent Zimmerman holds on for the reason that the anti Liberal vote is splintered too much with too many candidates in the field, + the Labor candidate by all reports is rather good so she could get 2nd place over Kyla Tink.
    Hunter in NSW? Will the One Nation vote there be as high as it was in 2019 when Joel Fitzgibbon was very lucky to hold on? I’ll chalk that one up as a Labor retain, albeit a narrow one.

  21. Coreflutes? Got mine a couple of days ago and they are now up on the fence. Got two as i live on a corner. 🙂 Auspicious day to put them up think i. 🙂

  22. Okay, I’ve been quite stuck as to whether I should vote Labor or Greens in the House in this election. I live in Griffith, where it may actually make a difference. My vote could conceivably be the difference between Max Chandler-Mather taking the seat or Terri Butler keeping it (or, for that matter, the Liberals winning – not because of my vote, but because of side-effects that can happen)…

    On the one hand, Labor are best positioned to repair the L/NP’s terrible handiwork, and a lot of their policies are quite good.

    On the other hand, Labor have caved on a number of issues, such as boat arrivals, and the Greens have some solid policies… but lack critical policies in a heap of areas and seem to be pushing for too much change in too little time.

    More than that, there’s real possibility that my vote could have a counter-intuitive effect. If the Greens get ahead of Labor, it could result in the Liberals winning… because a heap of Labor preferences may go the wrong way because of portrayal of the Greens as bad by a heap of Labor supporters (including a whole heap here on PB), whereas if the Greens are knocked out it would basically guarantee Labor winning (because Greens preferences go to Labor more strongly than vice versa).

    But on the flipside, the safest way to make sure one of the two wins is to get the Greens ahead of the Liberals, which could happen if a big swing is on.

    The Greens have gone for anti-Majors campaigning in the seat (suggesting Labor and Liberals are basically the same – which is obviously false), with makes me a little less likely to favour them… but the rabid anti-Greens messaging here on PB by a batch of commenters is effectively countering that, making me more likely to go Greens in response.

    So I open a challenge to both sides of this divide: Convince me as to why I should vote Labor, or why I should vote Greens… and do so without swiping at the other side (in fact, arguments that recognise the value of the other side will be viewed more positively). Coalition is fair game for criticism, but I’m already aware of each side’s views of the other’s weaknesses.

    To be clear, the rest of my HoR vote is already decided – LNP 3rd, PHON 4th, UAP 5th (PHON ahead of UAP because trying to buy votes is worse than just being politically terrible). The decision is whether to go Labor 1 or Greens 1. I’m also not looking for arguments about the Senate – I’ve got that already figured out in my head, and trying to make arguments based on the Senate will not convince me.

  23. Cricket at the Gabba for the Olympics – bloody oath – bring it on. Should have Rugby League too.

    “Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk will escort senior members of the International Olympic Committee on a tour of southeast Queensland this week and visit venues that could host virtual sports and cricket in 2032.

    Committee delegates including sports director Christophe Dubi and former Olympic swimming star Kirsty Coventry will tour Brisbane venues including the Gabba, and parts of the Gold and Sunshine coasts across the next three days from Tuesday.

    The delegates will visit the likes of Broadbeach and the Glass House Mountains escorted by the Premier, Deputy Premier Steven Miles and Sports Minister Stirling Hinchliffe.

    IOC president Thomas Bach will meet up with the Brisbane “A-team” on Saturday to reacquaint himself with the city a decade out from the 2032 world event.

    It will be the party’s first visit to Queensland since the Sunshine State was pitched to the IOC in a Zoom meeting.

    Mr Bach, who travelled to Australia to attend an early planning meeting for the Games on Sunday, provided insight to what could be in store for viewers and athletes in 2032.

    Mr Bach said sports that were “well appreciated” by younger generations would be a focus when deciding what sports would be included.

    His comments were backed up by Brisbane’s co-ordination commission chair Ms Coventry, who said there was a “long line” of candidates including cricket and virtual sports.
    Cricket is one of the sports being considered for Brisbane 2032.”

  24. “Funny because of the flourish he added in the end to include Peter Mali.
    Great touch.”

    I have found that he doesn’t usually play up the humor and can come across as a bit intense, Particularly during the covid period. However, when he does go the funny he actually seems very genuine about it and that makes him very relatable to people. ALP campaign launch went off well. 🙂

  25. GlenO, vote for the ALP if you want to actually see renewables infrastructure built and deployed in this country. They’re the only party that will actually make that happen. If you want that to happen, vote for the ALP. If you don’t want that to happen, don’t vote for the ALP.

  26. Lars Von Trier says:
    “Sorry to burst your balloons …”

    That’s precisely what we’d expect from a little prick.

  27. Evan : I reckon Entsch will go if there is even a small swing on. The voters up there know he will go soon and try to grandfather another tory into the seat ( when will voters wake up to the fact that a vote for Entsch,Sharma , Zimmerman etc is a vote for Barnaby and Canavan) The ALP former mayor Burnett up against an obvious drongo in Flynn is a big chance. A few really good chances around Brisbane as well but I’m afraid the “Goldie” will keep delivering LNP logs until the 12th of never.

  28. Q: Cricket at the Gabba for the Olympics – bloody oath – bring it on

    The Gabba is hosting Track and Field and the Ceremonies…..

    Cricket and Rugby League are not played in enough countries for the Olympics, there is a ‘universality’ clause.

  29. Resolve poll

    Voters have cut their support for the Coalition from 35 to 33 per cent and marked down Prime Minister Scott Morrison on his personal performance, giving Labor a strong lead at the halfway point in the federal election campaign.

    Labor has held its primary vote steady at 34 per cent over the past two weeks and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese has narrowed the gap with Morrison as preferred prime minister after disputes on the economy, security and climate change.

  30. Torchbearer, as to ‘universality’, cricket is played in more countries than hockey, and by far more people. I mean, I’m not even sure there’s a professional hockey tournament, is there? Ice hockey, sure. But hockey?

  31. Gleno, Australia needs a decade of majority Labor governments to enable an energy transition.

    A Labor government is the only way this can be achieved

    It’s as simples as that

  32. The gains for Labor in two-party terms were outside the margin of error when the calculation is made on stated preferences, with Labor increasing from 51 to 54 per cent from the survey two weeks ago, while the Coalition slipped from 49 to 46 per cent.

    The shift was slightly smaller when calculated on the preference flows at the last election, with Labor up from 52 to 54 per cent and the Coalition down from 48 to 46 per cent.

  33. GlenO:
    In the unlikely event that your single vote will decide which party wins Griffith…..ask yourself do you want your member sitting on the Government benches, making Nationally important decisions, or sitting on the crossbenches.

  34. sprocket – that weird bouncing around with minor parties is one of the reasons I don’t rate Resolve that highly. Still, the overall movement back to Labor on any sort of TPP calculation is noteworthy, just not the final result.

  35. GlenO, I generally wouldn’t attempt to convince anyone else how to vote (unless they were genuinely undecided and they went out of their way to ask me). You’re obviously well informed about the contest so I wonder if anyone else is in a better position than you to come up with a recommendation (but I like the way you’ve framed it). One consideration relates to the skills and qualities of the individual candidates, and I don’t have a strong impression of either of them. If I felt one candidate was smarter, more open-minded than the other, or gave a stronger impression of their heart being in the right place – that would influence me.

  36. Oh dear. Liberals can’t take a trick

    Property Council Welcomes Australian Labor Party Housing Plan
    The headlines:

    Were Labor to form Government, it would introduce a ‘Help to Buy’ shared equity scheme capped at 10,000 places.

    A Labor Government would also create a National Housing Supply and Affordability Council responsible for state housing targets.

    Labor says it will pay for this by doubling foreign investment screening fees and financial penalties.

  37. All this election talk takes me back to the 2001 Qld state election when the coalition was reduced to just 12 seats – 9 for the Nats, 3 for the Libs.

    On election night one of the networks had Richo and Michael Kroger as panelists.

    At evening’s end, Mr Kroger tried to downplay Labor’s victory saying Labor shouldn’t get too excited and, hey, the Libs didn’t do that bad, etc…

    To which Richo responded with a magnificent eye-roll and a withering, “Yes, Michael. 3 seats in an 89 seat parliament. It’s an outstanding achievement. You’re to be congratulated.”

    Even Mr Kroger couldn’t suppress a chuckle.

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