The weekly Roy Morgan series continues to record a narrowing in what has always seemed an implausibly large Labor lead, the latest headline two-party result being 54.5-45.5, slightly in from 55-45 last time. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 35.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two points from a spike last week to 12%, One Nation steady at 4.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1.5%. Applying 2019 preference flows to these factors, as opposed to Morgan’s respondent-allocated flows, produces a result in Labor’s favour of around 53-47.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 7% compared with the last election), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 7%), 61.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 58-42, a swing of around 11%) and 64.5-35.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 3.5%) and 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 1%). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1393.
As reported in the Financial Review today, a not dissimilar set of voting intention figures in the Ipsos poll that was published yesterday derives from distinctly different state breakdowns. Going off 2019 preference flows, the Ipsos results are similar insofar as they credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in Victoria (compared with 56-44 in the poll three weeks ago) and 65-35 off the particularly small sample in Tasmania. However, Ipsos has Labor’s leads at 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 last time), 55-45 in South Australia (62-38) and fully 59-41 in Western Australia (54-46 last time), along with a 50-50 result in Queensland (54-46 to Labor last time).
Sample sizes are such that all state breakdowns are to be treated with considerable caution, with the partial exceptions of Ipsos’s results for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, which respectively have sample sizes 756, 584 and 448 and error margins of 3.7%, 4.3% and 4.9%. This is even more so in the case of the Morgan poll, whose national sample of 1393 compares with 2302 from the Ipsos poll.
Lars Von Trier:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 8:18 pm
[‘Mavis, I am sure given the amounts involved – the lawyers have made it crystal clear in writing the risks and prospects in litigation for all parties.’]
There’s a protocol that requires legal practitioners to detail their fees & disbursements. But there’s also an implied out: if you want us to work miracles, there could be hidden costs.
Victoria says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 8:11 pm
On brand.
—–
two Victorian candidates for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party have been caught spreading Russian propaganda on social media, with one candidate also sharing a post suggesting the Port Arthur massacre never happened.
_______________________________________________-
Hi Kos!
Long time no see.
This stuff always amazes me. These fools are being played by someone, but who benefits from making Shite up like this? The ‘guy’ who makes up the lie knows they are lying. The idiots who spread it are just gullible fools. But the first ‘guy’ must have some motivation that escapes me. Thoughts?
Listening to the discussion of the Joshflation breakout tonight, two things struck me:
– after a decade in office, and a big spending, inflation-stoking budget, Frydenberg has nobody to blame but himself. He knows it. Everyone knows it.
– if the RBA does not put up interest rates next week, then Labor needs to clean out the RBA board when they win. All the policy markers justifying a rate rise are ticked – underlying and headline figures, broad based; the margin between inflation and interest rates is also exceptionally high (5%). In most of the nineties that number was 4% or less. Interest rates probably should have gone up months ago.
Labor should not gloat about these inflation figures because it hurts a lot of people on low incomes and its a bad look. But the fact is these figures are gold for Labor. They prove everything Albo and Chalmers have been saying was true, and everything Scomo and Josh were saying about the economy was false.
Reputation as national security experts – trashed
Myth as good economic managers – trashed
What would Scomo prefer – an election about climate change? The LGBTI gambit is a non-event.
Steve777 says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 8:41 pm
The difference between Labor and the Greens: Labor needs to persuade hundreds of thousands of people who vote Liberal to defect from the Dark Side so that they can win Government and actually accomplish something. Meanwhile, the best that the Greens can hope for is to have leverage over the Government of the day. They have no common ground with or leverage over the Coalition, so rationally they need to help Labor into power.
Not really. For the Greens the strategy is to prevent Labor exercising power other than with the consent of the Greens. The first order of business is to prevent Labor from winning. Their every move is tuned to that first purpose. If they can bend Labor to their will – blackmail a minority parliamentary Labor college – they will achieve power without themselves winning an election. Simple. Long odds, but simple. The Greens can lose nearly everything – they usually do – but still win.
Socrates says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 8:48 pm
__________________________
Hilarious!
Mavis,
It’s Mr Growler to you!
I reckon I cut through the cant and nonsense that old duffers like you revel in and that basically you can’t deal with old age, the loss of your career and the shame of your indiscretions.
At the end of the day, I post plenty to PB that others find interesting and engaging. You don’t like my style? I don’t really care.
Hi everyone,
Just back from our last branch meeting before the election. We were told that Andrew Clennell interviewed our candidate for Robertson, Dr Gordon Reid, today. I can’t see it up on his campaign facebook page. So I was wondering if I could be guided to a link to it from Sky please? If at all possible. 🙂
Decent turnout in Hawthorn tonight.
They saved a seat for the no show. This isn’t going to help him.
Nathan – concern troll – look it up.
Cronus:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 8:23 pm
Greensborough Growler/ Mavis
[‘Newbie still hunkered down in suitable chastisement. So was Mavis the predecessor to GG in providing guidance and direction to the wayward juniors?’]
Mavis has only given gratuitous advice advisably? I rarely put other posters down. I go back to the days of Calabrese, gusface, the finnigans. I think the Growler goes back that far too. But my view is that you’re only as good as your last post.
Bludging
None of that answers any of my questions, especially the one on entitlement to those disaffected voters. If you don’t feel entitled to those voters allegiance just because they’re part of the “historical plurality”, please explain how and why.
somethinglikethat ,
That;s not a good look for Fberg.
Mavis says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 8:56 pm
Cronus:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 8:23 pm
Greensborough Growler/ Mavis
[‘Newbie still hunkered down in suitable chastisement. So was Mavis the predecessor to GG in providing guidance and direction to the wayward juniors?’]
Mavis has only given gratuitous advice advisably? I rarely put other posters down. I go back to the days of Calabrese, gusface, the finnigans. I think the Growler goes back that far too. But my view is that you’re only as good as your last post.
_______________________
True that – the GG character has culminated. It has nothing new to offer – just abuse. Reviews have been terrible for sometime. Producers going on sentiment.
Finally! It’s been ages since the ABC has had a Green on Q&A, that I can remember off the top of my head anyway.
This doesn’t sound good
Lars,
Bite me!
You shed your skin so often you forget that at the end of the day, you’re still a snake.
Greensborough Growler:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 8:52 pm
It’s true, I abhor your style of putting new posters down. In the ADF, we called your types “Jacks”. And please stop your ageism. You might reach my advanced years if you were to get off the nasty pills. Anyway, enough.
balding middle aged white man
“These fools are being played by someone, but who benefits from making Shite up like this?”
As far as I understand conspiracy land, Port Arthur conspiracies are mainly propagated in the US by their gun nuts as one of the government false flags that duped us to accept our current state of gunless tyranny. I think they originally developed based on the fact that the police didn’t release much of the direct evidence (I believe some of it got leaked eventually), and Bryant initially denied doing it even though he’d just been caught in a shootout.
As always the benefits are in being able to sell a product, in this case dubious male health supplements and/or guns.
Poor Leigh Sales going through the motions….
https://twitter.com/mia__kennedy/status/1519264020271755264?s=21&t=ibFuZ-BMbYXAxouhwtbMoQ
Mavis,
Off you go, then.
You need to beat your dusters or whatever you have that’s handy.
So dutton and frydenberg both didnt appear at the candidates forum.
While Birmingham takes on the alternative Treasurer, Josh is mired in his own Electorate trying to save his seat.
Nathan at 8.29pm
Not long enough after Obeid??? You do realise the Coalition have been in power for more than a decade?
Longing for ICAC? You do realise NSW has had ICAC for three decades and it was instrumental in uncovering Obeid/McDonald – along with a string of Coalition figures in other corruption probes, including an ongoing investigation of former Liberal Premier Berejiklian?
You probably did know this and are simply a Liberal troll.
citizen says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 9:03 pm
This doesn’t sound good
Expats promised votes would not be lost in the mail as embassy booths slashed
Only 19 out of 109 voting booths designated overseas will be operating during this election.
============•==€€==+++=====
Got my application in the Duffers.
I sent the following to the Tom Rogers the AEC Boss. Of course no response.
“Dear Sir
I have just learned that the AEC has closed the Bangkok Embassy for in Person Voting.
As an Australian Citizen and Enrolled Voter I think this is appalling.
I understand you are attempting to dis-enfranchise over 50,000 Australians by this move.
Please do not blame COVID for this decision as I understand you are keeping booths open elsewhere where cases are higher than in Thailand.
Please reconsider this undemocratic move.
I have CCD the office of the Opposition Leader as I think he needs to be aware that the AEC has taken this action.
Following the election I shall make a formal submission to your Parliamentary oversight committees.
Please respond urgently with your solution.
Regards
Peter Van Onselen
The Coalition can gloat about low unemployment. BUT you’re counted in employment numbers if you work less than half a day a fortnight, wages growth is painfully anaemic, inflation is at a 20 year high and interest rates are about to rise. Oh, and we’re a trillion dollars in debt
I posted this last night. Late. Really has gotten up my Goat. It’s long though.
=====•••=====
The Australian Electoral Commission(AEC) have axed 67 in person overseas polling booths for this Federal election leaving 32,193 voters without a polling station. The axing of the polling places where 52% of overseas votes were cast in 2019 has been subject of a formal complaint by ALP Abroad to the AEC about their failure in their core role established by parliament to “deliver the franchise: that is, an Australian citizen’s right to vote” for overseas Australian’s.
The right of citizens to vote in person is sacred and any decision that impacts that fundamental right requires the highest degree of transparency.
ALP Abroad have formally requested from the AEC Commissioner Tom Rogers requesting,
the process by which the AEC determined which stations to close or remain open for each individual location,
the basis on which the determination was made for each location to close or remain open.
In providing the reason for the closure, please indicate who was involved in the decision and how the public was consulted. Each decision to close a polling station should refer to how this maximises electoral participation with reference to the Australian Electoral Commissions role to “deliver the franchise: that is, an Australian citizen’s right to vote”
The AEC Commissioner has not answered these questions but AEC generally tried to blame the Covid pandemic.
Reading the list of stations to be axed, it is clear that there is no compelling public health case for example to close.
Close Washington, Los Angeles and Chicago while keeping open New York and San Francisco
Close Wellington while keeping open Auckland
Close Singapore, one of our largest overseas booths, where the Covid situation is no worse than Australia’s
Close all three Canadian polling stations where Covid is no worse than Australia.
The AEC axing of overseas polling stations has put bureaucratic convenience over the upholding the right of Australians to vote
Overseas voters can write directly to the AEC at tom.rogers@aec.gov.au and tweet your protest at them at @AusElectoralCom
Overseas voters whose polling stations has are strongly encouraged to apply for a postal vote.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 8:52 pm
Hi everyone,
Just back from our last branch meeting before the election. We were told that Andrew Clennell interviewed our candidate for Robertson, Dr Gordon Reid, today. I can’t see it up on his campaign facebook page. So I was wondering if I could be guided to a link to it from Sky please? If at all possible.
__________________
Good on you C@t. I’d like to see it too as I’m stuck at home with covid.
Signing up to the ALP and helping in my electorate was partly because of reading your posts and the sacrifice of your time that you give to the party.
Best thing I’ve done in a long time. It’s hard and we won’t get a win* but it feels like the harder we work then it adds good vibes across the country to the seats where we just have to win (we just have to win please)
* not met a single person that doesn’t say the member is useless but also say they’d never change from the Country Party (deliberate usage…). 2022 is the year not 1952. FMD
Laura Tingle on the inflation rate figures tonight.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1519273669586948096
Oakeshott Country @ #779 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 8:23 pm
You claim to speak for us. But you don’t. You’re a Liberal. Liberals never speak on behalf of Labor people.
For c@t, here us the SkyNews feature on Robertson….
Clennel goes door knocking with Gordon Reid. Impression? ScoMo stinks.
https://twitter.com/australianlabor/status/1519228797979348992?s=21&t=DIJtZp5Dz4c8HkfymhzUDg
Hot off the presses, the Greens preference recommendations for Richmond…
2nd for Labor from us terrible horrible Greens 😉
The Hawkins pressure cooker my dear old mum gave me many moons ago didn’t come with a recipe for slow cooked ScoMo.
I’m assuming it needs a teaspoon of CPI increase, a large dollop of inflation, a pinch of Canavan spice, no added wage increase, 300 grams of Warringah deflection, 1 cup of blame Labor, a pinch of interest rate rise, one tablespoon of Solomons sauce and a rolled up print edition of The Australian.
Cooked at low heat for two weeks.
Served with nutty, odorous potatoes from Queensland.
sprocket_,
You’re an angel!
Meanwhile. Having trouble getting your head around what Musk is up to with Twitter, then you’re not alone. This guy is media savvy Prof of Marketing Scott Galloway, and worth a listen.
https://youtu.be/L7gQxAQlIK0
Firefox says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 9:31 pm
Hot off the presses, the Greens preference recommendations for Richmond…
2nd for Labor from us terrible horrible Greens
________________
C’mon FF. That’s just to throw em off the scent.
I can’t think why person X would be so aggressive:
[‘A former Special Air Service soldier who testified for war veteran Ben Roberts-Smith at his defamation suit has been arrested and charged with harming and resisting a Commonwealth official following his turn in the witness box.
The ex-soldier, who was given the pseudonym Person X for the purposes of his criminal proceedings, was approached by detectives attached to the Office of the Special Investigator enquiring into allegations of war crimes hours after he finished giving evidence on Tuesday afternoon.
He has been charged with:
Obstructing/hindering/intimidating/resisting a Commonwealth official and causing harm to a law officer. Appearing via video link at Central Local Court on Wednesday afternoon, the man was granted bail. He will be permitted to return to his home overseas until he is next required in court.
Person X spent three days giving evidence for Roberts-Smith, who is suing The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Canberra Times over articles that he claims portray him as a war criminal and murderer.
Person X was with Roberts-Smith during a 2009 mission at a village compound designated Whiskey 108 when the newspapers allege that two Afghan men were pulled from a tunnel and killed by SAS troops, contrary to the rules of engagement that prohibit the killing of unarmed prisoners.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/national/witness-for-ben-roberts-smith-hit-with-criminal-charges-after-finishing-his-evidence-20220427-p5agn1.html
Postscript: it seems like the Office of Special Prosecutions is
starting to get serious.
ParkySP,
It’s selfless people like you that make the world of difference! You never know, what people say in public, they may do the exact opposite in the privacy of the voting booth. At the very least in the Senate. So, more strength to your arm! Vote 1 the Good Guys. For the hard-working men and women of Australia!
Is Terry Patrick Sharples the erstwhile litigant in Sue v Hill, an earlier s44 case?
I tweeted Elon Musk today and told him he should be less concerned with ‘Free Speech’ on Twitter and more concerned with the Truth!
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 9:38 pm
I tweeted Elon Musk today and told him he should be less concerned with ‘Free Speech’ on Twitter and more concerned with the Truth!
_________
I’d back someone who wants Free Speech over someone who says they know the Truth! tbh.
nath
I don’t agree with what you say, and I will defend to the death my right to report you to the moderators.
WB GG Mavis
Chuckle, I do get that sense of duelling hall monitors, who answered to the headmaster himself (WB) if the other kids got outa hand and didn’t follow the rules. I do wonder who could be the most officious and acerbic when necessary? (Rhetorical, and in any case the fun comes from the mystery).
C@tmomma @ #840 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 9:38 pm
Worth a watch C@t – it’s all tangled up.
So with cost of living pressures courtesy of supply chain interruptions and Covid, the pressure on energy costs due to the conflict in Eastern Europe and housing costs as we are informed, interest rates are increasing on the equation that interest rates are the cost of money plus inflation – so technical
The money we have now buys less – witness the supermarket and the petrol station – along with home and medical insurance premiums
And you know what else has gone up in price
Then our private debt is where it is at – and the interest rate on that debt is going up so that costs
So everything is going up – except Stock Markets and wages
And where are house prices?
So where is household wealth?
The question is, if to put a break on inflation you subdue discretionary spending by increasing interest rates so less money available for discretionary spending which spending is driving prices where does enduring flat wages growth sit in the analysis and the outcome for the economy?
Will the factors impacting the Australian economy at this time along with increasing interest rates kill this neo conservative economy stone dead?
Because of all these years of flat to recessionary wages growth
And that flat to recessionary wages growth is about to bite – as Lowe has warned thru his tenure
It is akin to Company retrenchments seeing the Share price increase
We are (finally) seeing the full negative effect of 8 Years of ideology driving the economy not the economy driving the economy
And now we are in an impossible situation
Compounded by a Pandemic which is not yet in the tear view mirror
But don’t worry
This imbecile, ideology driven government is giving $250- to who it is giving that bribe to
The benefit is that, with a change of government, we can set about doing the hard yards to repair the foundations of the economy (to the benefit of the Nation’s citizens)
It will take time – but you have to start
Concensus between Capital, Labour and government is vital
To deliver a vital and function economy which delivers to society
Upnorth:
You remind me of the dearly departed Kay Jay.
nath @ #841 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 9:39 pm
Pretty interesting cross roads. One main point he makes is there’s nothing between Musk and the platform, no corporate ‘guardrails’. Tesla shares under pressure.
If a guy gets on the bus sits next to you and says ‘I know the truth’. Do you lean in closer and say ‘tell me more’ or do you move?
nath @ #836 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 9:39 pm
Not ‘Alternative Facts’. The Truth.
And what is ‘Free Speech’ anyway, as constructed by the Populist Authoritarian Right? It’s State Sanctioned Speech, where the State and their proxies control the Means of Production of ‘Free Speech’. If they don’t like what you’re saying, they cancel you. If they’re really worried about you and you haven’t been chilled by the power that they wield and the tools that they possess, then they send in the lawyers. Like they did against Shane Bazzi. And like they will entrench in law should the Coalition win the next election. Ditto the Republicans and Trump in the USA.
THAT’S what I mean.
nath @ #848 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 9:48 pm
or say: “so do I”.
Cronus:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 9:42 pm
WB GG Mavis
[‘I do wonder who could be the most officious and acerbic when necessary?’]
That’s axiomatic? Pepys.