Roy Morgan seems to have moved to weekly reporting of its federal voting intention numbers, with a poll published last night showing Labor’s two-party lead in from 58-42 to 57-43 through a survey period that ran from last Monday to Sunday. However, this masks a three-and-a-half point drop in Labor’s primary vote to 36%, which only does minor damage on two-party preferred because the Coalition is also down, by half a point to 32.5%, and Labor has done even better than usual this time on Morgan’s respondent-allocated preference flow. If preferences from 2019 were applied to these figures, the result would come out to about 55-45, in from amount 56.5-43.5 last time. For the minor parties, the Greens and One Nation are each up one-and-a-half, to 12.5% and 5% respectively – respectively their equal best and actual best results for the term – and the United Australia Party is up half a point to 1.5%.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (unchanged on last week, a swing of around 7.5%), 58-42 in Victoria (in from 60.5-39.5, a swing of around 5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 9%), 63.5-36.5 in Western Australia (out from 59-41, a swing of fully 19%), 53-47 in South Australia (in from 56-44, a swing of around 2.5%) and 69-31 in Tasmania. The sample size for the poll was 1384.
Also:
• The Australian that Dawson MP George Christensen, having parted company with the Liberal National Party last week ahead of his presumed retirement at the election, will today announce he will run as a candidate for One Nation at the election, though it is not yet clear if it will be for his existing seat. The report also reveals One Nation will run in all 151 lower house seats, whereas it only did so in 59 seats in 2019.
• Labor’s awkward start to the campaign has caused betting markets to tighten significantly: Sportsbet is now offering $1.63 on Labor, out from $1.45 at the start of the campaign, while the Coalition is in from $3.20 to $2.30.
• Australian Development Strategies, run by former Labor Senator John Black, has a map showing federal electorates’ concentrations of 35-to-49 year olds in the highest income quartile, whom he classifies as “maturing traditional swinging voters and aspirational voters in the ages at which they traditionally begin to move their vote from Labor to the Coalition”. We’ll see about that, but in any case it’s a nice and easily navigable map of federal electoral boundaries.
mundo says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 9:41 am
Victoria @ #175 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 9:36 am
Stephen Jones MP
@StephenJonesMP
An Albanese Labor Government will ease the squeeze on hospitals by opening Medicare Urgent Care Clinics around Australia.
And all you need is your Medicare card.
Oh goodie, invoke the ghost of Mark Latham.
There are some real thinkers down there at Labor HQ
This is absolute bollocks. No-one will connect Latham and this announcement. Labor is cultivating its credentials on health. Very good idea. Very good idea. I’ll repeat that. Very good idea.
Health is a big issue in the electorate. For many, it’s the biggest issue of all. It touches nearly every family. Labor are a 100 miles in front of the Lying Reactionaries on this issue and they should invoke it whenever they can.
In beating up the media (rather than a media beat-up) I have happy to join the West newspaper gloating over the decline in listener numbers for Channel 9 affiliated station 6PR in Perth.
Gareth Parker (mediocre journo and hopeful of a big gig on the East coast) has seen ratings for his breakfast programme drop yet again, while Liam Bartlett on his talk back effort, has sunk even lower…I love it when the media eats itself on this occasion….
The saving grace for the two above programmes is that both presenters act as a focal point for (mainly) angry red neck supporters (mostly older people in this case) to vent.
While both try to make out they are impartial, it is clear that by the guests they have, the frequent use of Murdoch media and their disdain for the ABC, where their politics are to be found.
According to the ratings, this means somewhere between 8 and 9 people out of 100 are listening in Perth at that time slot…..Keep it up chaps!
Pi @ #196 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 7:46 am
I have been following Poll Bludger for about 15 years now and I can say I have never remember it being raised as an issue of concern before.
The urgent care clinics are just rehashed failures of the Rudd super clinics with a lot less money. It just duplicates services competing with local GPs and it diverts money from public hospitals.
Laughtong
The Sunbury community hospital will be a great asset for your area
Duplicates services provided by GPs, many of whom don’t bulk-bill?
It may weaken the mega medical centres? I’m good with that.
Execution is critical, but it’s unarguably a good idea to divert people away from ERs, and give an alternative to GPs, particularly those with two or three sick kids (or anyone frankly) who can’t fork out the gap or cover the cost pre-refund.
Pi says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 9:46 am
Barney, is you have evidence of this being ignored in the past, show it, instead of relying upon innuendo.
___________
You will have to improve your grammar if you ever hope to get on the property ladder.
Pi
The thing is the media has always taken sides.
Labor had better learn quick: the media are not their friends. They are instruments of reaction. They are designed and managed that way. The LRP maintain a large and over-fed in-house corps for the express purpose of marshalling the media. They do it 24/7.
The media will try to procure the re-election of the LRP. This is a given. Labor should stop trying to work on the assumption that the playing field is in some way level. It isn’t. It is permanently tilted against them.
Barney, then it sounds like you’ve never thought about it before. The problem.
It is a problem. A big one. As i said before, maybe if a reporter started their question in a press conference “Over beers last night you mentioned X. Could you expand on that for us please?” it would better reflect the dynamic.
Lets hope the Sunbury Hospital is better than the Northern.
Using the phase “ease the squeeze” is not the reason Latham lost the 2004 election.
Pi @ #211 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 7:58 am
Where have I said I approve of the practice?
Posted on previous thread…
I shared the fury of others at Morrison’s Penrith press party/bribe.
I went to the ABC contact page and made a ‘Request’ for ‘Information’ about a ‘Political Event’…
https://help.abc.net.au/hc/en-us/requests/new?ticket_form_id=360000036795
I then submitted the following text…
“Yesterday (12th April) the Prime Minister hosted a private function attended by a significant number of journalists. Did any ABC journalists attend? If so, please email me a list of their names.”
If you’re angry/concerned about this corrupt party, maybe do something similar…
I’m going to investigate how to send a similar request to commercial media organisations. If anyone has know-how on that, I’d appreciate a leg-up…
MB, you’re argument seems to be “the media has always been corrupt. Accept it.” The outrage you’re seeing is evidence of the fact that people don’t accept it.
Posted on previous thread…
I sent a suggestion to FJ re the Penrith Press Party (assumed he wasn’t invited!) – that he find out and expose those who did attend…
https://www.friendlyjordies.com/contact
[‘Labor says it’s not good enough for the prime minister to say he doesn’t know how $500,000 is being spent.
“If Alan Tudge did nothing wrong, why was half a million dollars in taxpayers’ money spent in compensation? And if Alan Tudge did do something wrong, why is he still in the cabinet?” Labor frontbencher Jason Clare said.
“This stinks.”] – SMH
Clare is a very effective spokesperson for Labor.
Pi
Its not about accepting it but about recognising history.
nath, don’t start an argument with me over the correct use of grammar. You’re not up to the task. Quit while you’re only this far behind.
Snappy Tom
I believe friendlyjordies is currently in Melbourne doing comedy shows.
mb, by that logic the white Australia policy was a-ok. “We’ve always done it. We just don’t like talking about it, because people get outraged when they learn about it.”
BSA
Morrison flipped from smiling to a look of utter contempt.
There’s the man behind the smiling facade.
Tricot says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 9:51 am
In beating up the media (rather than a media beat-up) I have happy to join the West newspaper gloating over the decline in listener numbers for Channel 9 affiliated station 6PR in Perth.
Gareth Parker (mediocre journo and hopeful of a big gig on the East coast) has seen ratings for his breakfast programme drop yet again, while Liam Bartlett on his talk back effort, has sunk even lower…I love it when the media eats itself on this occasion….
The saving grace for the two above programmes is that both presenters act as a focal point for (mainly) angry red neck supporters (mostly older people in this case) to vent.
While both try to make out they are impartial, it is clear that by the guests they have, the frequent use of Murdoch media and their disdain for the ABC, where their politics are to be found.
According to the ratings, this means somewhere between 8 and 9 people out of 100 are listening in Perth at that time slot…..Keep it up chaps!
8 or 9 out of any 100 who listen to the radio….which might be 1/3 at any given time, or perhaps rather less than that. So maybe hate radio has an audience of 1/50 in Perth.
I think the listening habits of the people have changed profoundly. People listen to music (Spotify or their own playlists) on their headphones, or they listen to podcasts, or they chat via their smartphones. Most workplaces play music if they play anything at all and it’s not necessarily or even often sourced from radio.
Hate radio is also broadcast on AM. Who listens to AM radio? The aural quality is really very poor.
These shows talk to themselves and their cultists. They are only about generating sensation/anger/resentment. This is a chat-diet for the obsessed and the irate. It really is the opposite of the peace that most of us try to find.
Barney
I think the issue is that is only now being raised and considered and even if in hindsight, it’s very difficult to justify. Perhaps at the very end of the campaign and involving all journalists but I was totally unaware such a thing was normal and especially so early in the campaign. It just doesn’t look or smell appropriate when the light is shone on it IMHO.
Pi
That is not a good example. People talk about the media as if it has only started being bias in the last few years but its been bias for far longer.
‘Liveable income’ plan proposed to lift Australians out of poverty
As the federal election approaches, a boost to welfare payments to allow people to live above the poverty level is being proposed by the Greens party. The Parliamentary Budget Office says the plan will cost $88.7 billion.
Natasha Thomson lives with severe chronic pain, but it took her more than two years for Centrelink to approve her disability support pension (DSP).
Ms Thomson, 28, said her experience of applying to receive the DSP welfare payment was “dehumanising to say the least”.
Prior to receiving the DSP, Ms Thomson was relying on the JobSeeker payment, but it paid less than $45 a day. It meant, at times, she had to choose which basic necessity was more important to get by.
…
Her concerns come as the Greens launch their mammoth plan to bolster income support payments for Australians to receive $88 a day – placing all welfare recipients over the poverty line.
The so-called liveable income guarantee is the Greens’ most expensive policy initiative and is expected to cost $88.7 billion over the four-year forward estimates period, based on analysis by the Parliamentary Budget Office.
“We’re offering people a … a guarantee that people will be lifted out of poverty and have the income that they need to be able to have the essential basics in life covered,” the Greens spokesperson for family, ageing and community services, Janet Rice, said.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/liveable-income-plan-proposed-to-lift-australians-out-of-poverty/xeldcspg3
Talormade @ 8.35am
“Probably thinks he’s helping, but
mainstream Australia hates that shit.”
How would you know what mainstream Australia hate?
Victoria says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 9:44 am
Meanwhile Victoria will be hosting 2026 commonwealth games. Not that I care too much about the games itself. Although the extra infrastructure and housing that comes with it will be well and truly appreciated.
————-
Doesn’t excite me greatly either – but the buzz of the 2006 games in Melbourne was really something – a bit to my surprise. Also random fun stuff like during my lunch break seeing a whole lot of members of the Jamaican team browsing the CDs in JB Hi Fi in Elizabeth St .
Cronus @ #226 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 8:07 am
I agree, I don’t think it should happen full stop.
I must say that it is quite surprising that these sort of events are a revelation to so many, especially here.
Briefly – Nine Radio/Newspapers/TV don’t really matter in Perth.
Its a one media company town as you know.
Taylormade
Yes the mainstream, that is the mainstream media hate gatecrashers shining a light on their secret circle.
Re George Christiansen
“ Last year, he said he was quitting Parliament to spend more time with his young family.”
I wonder what changed?
Cronus
But does it only happen during the campaign ? I’d take a guess at no, it doesn’t just happen during the election campaign.
Cronus @ #234 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 8:15 am
She got to know him.
Where’s GetUp during this campaign? They were big news in 2019, don’t seem to have much profile this year?
“Using the phase “ease the squeeze” is not the reason Latham lost the 2004 election.”
***
Not “easing the squeeze” was more his problem…
Fair Disbursements Of Global Assets
@AusRobMillgate
·
4m
Painful as this is, can you blame ALP for ditching ambitions in the short-term, as more Voters
❤️Scomo❤️ over Albanese which indicates they’re happy
#ausvotes
#auspol
JobSeeker rate to remain untouched after election after Labor ditches plans to review it
@LvT – now I see why you’re following them.
I did a bit of Twittering (reading, not posting) pre- Ukraine invasion. It made me hate that cesspit more than before.
A lot of sad, lost and bitter people. Who think their only outlet is to troll people really concerned about the world and the consequences. Does it make a difference to outcomes in the world? No. Does it have tangible impacts on people personally? Yeah.
My rule with online interactions (I definitely restrain myself here) is, if I wouldn’t say it to your face, I wouldn’t type it here.
Mexicanbeemer @ #208 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 9:55 am
The thing is, in Australia particularly, almost all of the media almost always takes the same side. Probably via both explicit and implicit editorial decree.
Because one person owns most of it and they’re not required or even incentivized to provide balanced or accurate reporting/commentary. And Labor hasn’t picked up the Coalition’s tactic of suing or threatening to sue for defamation every time there’s a negative story published against them. Perhaps they should.
The Liberals will promise money to oil companies today because… they suddenly discover fuel standards they have been ignoring for ten years?
The fuel standards they are referring to were going to be introduced by the Gillard government after the 2013 election.
Today’s policy announcement would be better titled “donor-keeper”. It is a generous gift of taxpayer funds to a sector that pays almost zero tax, employs few and is mostly foreign owned.
To quote the Grattan Institute
“But subsidising oil refineries does little to make us more secure, because our refineries depend overwhelmingly on imported oil. ”
https://grattan.edu.au/news/how-to-save-us-pain-at-the-petrol-pump-and-boost-national-fuel-security/
I’m trusting Labor policy wonks are all over this. It should be criticised. The real issue for fuel security – local fuel storage – is still largely ignore by this government.
Pretty chuffed about the commonwealth games being spread across the Victorian regionals tbh. What a great idea.
From Amy’s GA blog…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/apr/13/australia-politics-live-update-election-campaign-scott-morrison-anthony-albanese-adam-bandt-coalition-labor-greens?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
[Just in case there are any questions on this today, the jobseeker rate for a single person is $642.70 a fortnight, or about $46 a day, which is well below the relative or Henderson poverty lines.
The stage-three tax cuts, which have been legislated and are due to come into effect in the 2024/25 financial year are expected to cost $17bn a year (revised down from $19bn a year because of low wage growth).
Research by the APH library, based on March 2020 figures, found a $95 a week increase to jobseeker would cost about $5bn a year.]
How any decent person can look past this I don’t know.
This society has lost its moral compass.
Max
I remember 2006 games. My kids were young and they enjoyed it.
Here in The Cave’s our daily shit sheet’s deadwood front page shows how it handles Bullshit Man’s popularity here. Scotty ? Who’s he ? Never heard of him. Here have The Rodent.
Think this should’ve been the headline for party intruder.
Media personnel present at a free booze up hosted by the PM at tax payers expense saw nothing out of the ordinary as a person was assaulted at the private event .
But as the night went on and the alcohol flowed freely ,the media when pushed suddenly remembered an incident involving a Labor activist,who had gate crashed the event ,attacking the PM and hurling abuse at him as he was led away.
All media present say it was all so scary……….now that the initial shock has worn off and we have gone past the SGT .Schultz (we know nuffinck)we saw nuffinick .,and the effects of the free piss,have worn off ,everything’s as clear as mud.
And so say all of us……
George Christiansen is a Qanon and anti vax nut
Socrates
The AWU are heavily invested in keeping the oil refineries going.
There’s a column on their website about it
https://www.awu.net.au/national/news/2021/05/14319/awu-welcomes-breakthrough-on-australian-fuel-refining/
Yes, I’m not sure how many people dislike Insiders for its personalities rather than, as Rosen described it, what it represents: smug, supercilious elitism. Vacuity masked as insight. The victory of perception over truth. I wish I’d seen that Lateline interview years ago, it so perfectly articulated this unease I’ve had about media coverage of elections and politics for a while. It’s almost voyeurism.
I say this as someone with mixed feelings about it, because I see the entertainment value in it. I mean, for crying out loud it’s what the vast, vast bulk of comments here also descend into because commenters are interested in how their favoured leaders “perform”.
There are otherwise quite decent journalists who have been caught in its thrall, who should never have allowed themselves to be dragged on to the set of that show.
That’s pretty bad Poroti from the West. The Editor is ex-Tele exactly the same style of attack!
Still you could be Pravda – a 10% swing is still enormous !