Roy Morgan seems to have moved to weekly reporting of its federal voting intention numbers, with a poll published last night showing Labor’s two-party lead in from 58-42 to 57-43 through a survey period that ran from last Monday to Sunday. However, this masks a three-and-a-half point drop in Labor’s primary vote to 36%, which only does minor damage on two-party preferred because the Coalition is also down, by half a point to 32.5%, and Labor has done even better than usual this time on Morgan’s respondent-allocated preference flow. If preferences from 2019 were applied to these figures, the result would come out to about 55-45, in from amount 56.5-43.5 last time. For the minor parties, the Greens and One Nation are each up one-and-a-half, to 12.5% and 5% respectively – respectively their equal best and actual best results for the term – and the United Australia Party is up half a point to 1.5%.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (unchanged on last week, a swing of around 7.5%), 58-42 in Victoria (in from 60.5-39.5, a swing of around 5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 9%), 63.5-36.5 in Western Australia (out from 59-41, a swing of fully 19%), 53-47 in South Australia (in from 56-44, a swing of around 2.5%) and 69-31 in Tasmania. The sample size for the poll was 1384.
Also:
• The Australian that Dawson MP George Christensen, having parted company with the Liberal National Party last week ahead of his presumed retirement at the election, will today announce he will run as a candidate for One Nation at the election, though it is not yet clear if it will be for his existing seat. The report also reveals One Nation will run in all 151 lower house seats, whereas it only did so in 59 seats in 2019.
• Labor’s awkward start to the campaign has caused betting markets to tighten significantly: Sportsbet is now offering $1.63 on Labor, out from $1.45 at the start of the campaign, while the Coalition is in from $3.20 to $2.30.
• Australian Development Strategies, run by former Labor Senator John Black, has a map showing federal electorates’ concentrations of 35-to-49 year olds in the highest income quartile, whom he classifies as “maturing traditional swinging voters and aspirational voters in the ages at which they traditionally begin to move their vote from Labor to the Coalition”. We’ll see about that, but in any case it’s a nice and easily navigable map of federal electoral boundaries.
Wouldn’t it be funny if from today, at every presser and doorstop for a few days, Anthony Albanese began like this –
“As you may be aware, the Reserve Bank interbank cash rate today remains at 0.1%. But for ordinary Australians the only interest rate that counts is the one they’re paying on their own mortgage. And for most people on a variable rate this is around 3% – but this interest rate is predicted to rise rapidly throughout the rest of this year because of the economic mismanagement of this near-decade old Coalition Government.
They have presided over runaway inflation which has increased the cost of food, petrol, electricity, goods and services but unfortunately this has not been matched by wage increases – so ordinary Australian families are already suffering from cost of living pressures, and it will be even harder for them when the interest rates on their home loans go up and up. Australians truly cannot afford a second decade of this tired and dysfunctional Coalition Government.”
(Pivot !!!)
And the media are completely ignoring the incident last night where they were found to be in Morrison’s pocket having drinks with him on the sly.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/prospective-payout-to-tudge-s-former-staffer-recognises-major-claim-20220412-p5acvi.html
C@tmomma @ #2 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 3:42 am
Probably because there is no story and it is a common occurrence in elections.
Desperate times call for desperate measures, but really, who would subscribe for this?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/michael-miller-spruiks-news-corp-s-election-goodies-20220412-p5ad0p.html
Perhaps the fact ‘it is a common occurrence’ should make it a story?
I know it’s a naive view, but journalists should keep a distance between them and their subjects, and be seen to do so.
About time the journalists answered some questions: How come they partying with Morrison?
And how low can ABC journalists be to cover so many social problems in our society and then campaign like Murdoch hacks for Morrison with their bias? What the hell is going on at the ABC? Left wing? I didn’t think partying with Morrison was very left wing? After all Morrison has done wrong!
The ADS map of Brisbane is interesting. It suggests the marginal ALP SE QLD seats of Lilley, Griffith, and Moreton are at risk as they include the growing prosperous age group of 35-50 more likely historically to swing from ALP to Lib voters.
It will be interesting to see whether climate change/floods might mitigate this flow in this age group this election and if so, whether that might impact marginal LNP held seats such as Brisbane and Dickson.
The worse a party is doing the greater the emphasis on the media amongst its supporters. I suppose it’s easier than actually looking internally.
dont think albanese is a strong leader however we need to combat the sbin that morison is a good economick manager most ofhis team served under rudd and gillard and most of morisons team are hidden like michaela cash aterney general who must only be there becaus of the clan Collier and corman which desbite distroying the liberals in wa are still there corman in oecd and ann ruston given health when shes a weak performer stuart robbert invizable if mortin and hawke are so close to pm how come they get no media or exboshure in question time
And the bias to the left? Well despite the continued corruption and absolute neglect of the community through the pandemic, natural disaster and social inequity, that’s it, Albo did not answer the unemployment rate so we are all doomed to more long years of Morrison and his cronies, that’s it, no point in bothering anymore just anoint the goon from marketing as emperor…. I mean FMD, it has basically come to this. This is faux democracy refined to it’s finished product. The expectation of the goon from marketing and his media fanbase is that they will tell us who is to win and who we shall vote for. Basically the government is beyond reproach and there is no more contest due to one wrong answer. Privileged journalists appear to love putting the boot into the interests of everyday people, and do their best to confuse people about what those interests are.
Well six weeks out the pollster are not converging to the Newspoll result. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues and who is right.
no its not all about media but the only ministers thatt get troted out to do regular interviews are bermingham the robotick dayley spokesman ocationly ruston, frydenberg or hunt while albo has marles galigher and shoule use wong and charmers more marise payne is largily absent in foriegn afairs, funy the lyn about labor being weak on borders when karin andrews is unknown in home afairs with most people thinking allex hawke is minister dutton ocationly does media along with morrisons attack dog hollie hughes
The corporate watchdog was forced to dump its longstanding security contractor after learning the Australian Federal Police was investigating the company for suspected links to an outlaw motorcycle gang, illegal phoenixing, fraud offences and money laundering.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission’s issues with its external security contractor have emerged after the security firm sued ASIC in the NSW Supreme Court, alleging its director was pressured by the watchdog into agreeing to tear up the contracts because of the investigation.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/asic-sacked-security-contractor-over-suspected-links-to-bikies-20220411-p5aco4.html
ltep – the media is failing us whoever you support and however vociferously. Our democracy no longer seems able to deal with critical issues – climate change, rational foreign relations, reform of any kind – and the media and its failings are a big part of that. Ultimately, I concede, we get the politicians and the media that we deserve; apparently for the last couple of decades we have been very very undeserving.
*ok, Murdoch outlets are not ‘failing’ – their sabotage is deliberate
Labor needs to learn how to treat the mainstream media, including the ABC, with the contempt it deserves. It will resonate with a public which hates journos nearly as much as bankers and used car salesmen. Engaging with new media personalities as well as old fashioned community engagement like door knocks and street stalls is where it’s at.
Good to see Barney in TB monitoring my every comment, like a teacher with a ruler ready to rap me over the knuckles if my comments don’t conform to his point of view. 🙄
Look Barney, if you want to see the supposed 4th Estate fraternising with the leader of the country in an election campaign, instead of maintaining a studied and objective distance, as completely normal, that’s your opinion, it’s not normal. Or, at least it shouldn’t be.
What security contractor these days isn’t linked to Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs/Bikies!?!
(And before Barney in TB sees an opportunity to try and rap me over the knuckles again for being wRONg, yes I do know there would be 1 or 2 that aren’t 🙄 )
There is no denying the obvious bias of the majority of media.
It’s not a fantasy of party supporters.
Murdoch makes no secret of his conservative views & his willingness to use his empire to meddle. Lachlan Murdoch is another one to keep an eye on. He is widely reported to be ultra right.
Anyway, suffice to say, the springing of Morrison at leisure with the media last night was the first thing my son asked me about when I got up this morning. Those in the Millennial cohort think it’s something, not nothing.
Also, it was great to see that the young man who took the video was still angry about Morrison’s lack of action when it comes to the bushfires. Because that’s what needs to happen in this election. Morrison needs to be held to account for his failures during the last 3 years.
C@tmomma @ #17 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 4:29 am
And Albo won’t do something similar during the campaign?
C@t:
Where is the video from last night? I can’t find it.
I’m hearing lots of the fires are states responsibility not the feds.
Peter Hartcher gets it about why the media shouldn’t get too close to Autocratic leaders and smooth the path to victory for them:
Apart from their specific relations with Putin, these three – Le Pen, Orban and Vucic – all share his autocratic ways. Orban and Vucic have strangled media freedom, hacked away at independent institutions and used the power of the state to persecute political allies.
Because, that’s what comes next. And you can guarantee that Dutton and Morrison’s ‘Defamation’ laws will be back on the table should they be re-elected. And everything they really put up a signpost to.
Well after watching politics for a long time it really does feel like the government and journalists have coalesced to an extreme point of bias now and I am hardly alone in this perception. I do truly worry about the mental health wellbeing of people with social and environmental concerns. I think many people are at breaking point with how our society is going as we are at a very crucial point and people with these concerns will feel completely voiceless if there is no change. What hope is there for future generations if corruption and neglect is just rewarded again?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #NaN Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 6:41 am
It wouldn’t be behind closed doors if he does. Though I doubt it. He has foresworn carbs, so he probably has a quiet dinner with his team then goes up to his room.
Barney @ 5.50am
“Probably because there is no story and it is a common occurrence in elections.”
I wonder if the amount of Twitter activity says “there is no story”?
Morrison’s reaction to being caught hosting a drinks party for “the wannabe press corp” will be the biggest story of the election.
The Morrison reaction says deceit, elitism, favouritism and puts the trust issue in the headlights.
It casts doubt over the role of the AFP’s Personal Protection Unit.
Many more now dislike Morrison for the “private drinks party”.
Many more now have less respect for the press corp and their integrity.
Hypocrisy bouncing from news outlet to news outlet.
I think perceptions of the media are all relative. I was listening to a Bulwark podcast the other day and Charlie Sykes and Tim Miller were lauding Jonathan Swan (Norman Swan’s son) for his bullish interview of Mitch McConnell. They said US journalists are too polite whereas Australian and British journalists don’t hold back and will keep grilling the subject until they answer the question.
I laughed. If only they knew!
Confessions @ #NaN Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 6:41 am
On friendlyjordies Twitter account.
https://twitter.com/friendlyjordies
Morning all. Well the Liberals have achieved at least one form of gender equality in Canberra.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/13/nsw-liberal-senator-billed-taxpayers-for-travel-allowance-on-day-of-melbourne-cup-marquee-event
The Hollow Man:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hollow-promise-foreign-workers-needed-to-meet-pm-s-jobs-target-20220412-p5actb.html
We have the most concentrated media ownership in the western world.
this is from twitter:
https://www.tiktok.com/@adisenofficial/video/7085648368055192833?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc
this is for the media – you are not welcome here and the feds are sicced on to him.
Thanks C@t. Looks like the ABC are now reporting it.
Hollie Hughes is just about as close as you can get to a complete caricature.
However, this masks a three-and-a-half point drop in Labor’s primary vote to 36%, which only does minor damage on two-party preferred because the Coalition is also down, by half a point to 32.5%
——————————————————–
Lets Hypothetically compare what these numbers would mean
Labor 36% swing of 3% to Labor (33%) 2019 federal election
Lib/nats 32.5% swing of 9% against the Lib/nats (41.5%) 2019 federal election
Lib/nats would lose well over 20+ seats if those numbers were replicated at the 2022 federal election
Like Liberal Ministers, business shills have no shame. Even after ten years of flat wage growth, they are still trying to claim that “more flexible wage markets” will lead to higher wages. This lie has been proven false over and over again.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-13/industrial-relations-reform-election/100986840
C@tmomma @ #26 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 4:46 am
So that’s meant to stop Albo going into a bar for the whole campaign. 😆
Are you trying to suggest that the event Morrison held last night is going to be a daily event?
… private media drinks the PM was hosting in Sydney last night
That says it all. Get them buttered up at the beginning of the campaign and the rest takes care of itself.
So that’s meant to stop Albo going into a bar for the whole campaign.
Did I say that? No.
Are you trying to suggest that the event Morrison held last night is going to be a daily event?
No.
The facts
Majority of those in the media , are more corrupt than the politicians
C@tmomma @ #40 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 5:03 am
So what’s your point, beyond trying to create a negative perception.
I believe that the only thing holding together the almost right wing cult of newscorp is the fellow in New York. People say his son is even more right wing and this might be so but he doesn’t engender the same type of mythical fear that RM does in his employees. Just the thought that he might read one of your stories online and not like where your coming from or lob into the newsroom unannounced and fix you with a look that you know means he doesn’t like the cut of your jib is enough to enforce the “what would RM want”atmosphere. This is the stuff I’ve read time and again about the miasma of fear and unease at newscorp.
Volodomyr Zelenskyy’s forces have captured the puppet Putin was going to install as leader of Ukraine:
https://www.rawstory.com/viktor-medvedchuk/
No mention of Gaffefate across telly chanels this morning as far as I can see.
One oblique reference but otherwise it’s all about the emergency medical centres policy.
Resonable start to day 3.
Morrison said he was having ‘secret’ drinks with the media.
Mmm….why secret?
When are the debates happening? Any word?
So what’s your point, beyond trying to create a negative perception.
The event was clandestine, ‘private’. Why? It was being paid for with taxpayers’ money, so it should have at least been publicly notified. Then people could have come along freely and been a part of it as well. We are supposedly a free and open society, except when it comes to the leader of the country fraternising with the media it seems.
C@tmomma @ #48 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 5:16 am
Your just pushing the same sort partisan of shit that we rightly criticise Firefox for.
19% swing in WA to Labor according to Morgan. Amazeballs!!!
If realised even The Hale School would be in a Labor seat!