Roy Morgan seems to have moved to weekly reporting of its federal voting intention numbers, with a poll published last night showing Labor’s two-party lead in from 58-42 to 57-43 through a survey period that ran from last Monday to Sunday. However, this masks a three-and-a-half point drop in Labor’s primary vote to 36%, which only does minor damage on two-party preferred because the Coalition is also down, by half a point to 32.5%, and Labor has done even better than usual this time on Morgan’s respondent-allocated preference flow. If preferences from 2019 were applied to these figures, the result would come out to about 55-45, in from amount 56.5-43.5 last time. For the minor parties, the Greens and One Nation are each up one-and-a-half, to 12.5% and 5% respectively – respectively their equal best and actual best results for the term – and the United Australia Party is up half a point to 1.5%.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (unchanged on last week, a swing of around 7.5%), 58-42 in Victoria (in from 60.5-39.5, a swing of around 5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 9%), 63.5-36.5 in Western Australia (out from 59-41, a swing of fully 19%), 53-47 in South Australia (in from 56-44, a swing of around 2.5%) and 69-31 in Tasmania. The sample size for the poll was 1384.
Also:
• The Australian that Dawson MP George Christensen, having parted company with the Liberal National Party last week ahead of his presumed retirement at the election, will today announce he will run as a candidate for One Nation at the election, though it is not yet clear if it will be for his existing seat. The report also reveals One Nation will run in all 151 lower house seats, whereas it only did so in 59 seats in 2019.
• Labor’s awkward start to the campaign has caused betting markets to tighten significantly: Sportsbet is now offering $1.63 on Labor, out from $1.45 at the start of the campaign, while the Coalition is in from $3.20 to $2.30.
• Australian Development Strategies, run by former Labor Senator John Black, has a map showing federal electorates’ concentrations of 35-to-49 year olds in the highest income quartile, whom he classifies as “maturing traditional swinging voters and aspirational voters in the ages at which they traditionally begin to move their vote from Labor to the Coalition”. We’ll see about that, but in any case it’s a nice and easily navigable map of federal electoral boundaries.
Cronus
On GeorgeC
Just guessing easy money & perks.
Another lazy ass that can’t make it in the private sector.
Rex Douglas,
This election is about bribing pensioners and old people, and focusing on cost of living.
Because ALBO and the ALP let the ball go through to the keeper, the rate of job keeper doesn’t matter because not many people are unemployed!!!!!!!!!!! Because now albo knows that the unemployment rate is 4%, now we all know the government doesn’t have any problems with underemployment or anything like that.
The ALP have done nothing to have that conversation and the media won’t buy it. So why increase a benefit that won’t get used by the 4% of unemployed people.
Loser issue, move on.
Going small target doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be attacking the government. Which has been my point for the last few years.
>Re George Christiansen
“ Last year, he said he was quitting Parliament to spend more time with his young family.”
I wonder what changed?
He gets more money from recontesting and losing (twitter estimates between $50,000 to $100,000) than from just retiring. Note its not clear he’s recontesting Dawson
Billionaire tax to fund Greens’ $7.5bn plan for Medicare to cover dental
The Greens will announce on Wednesday a $7.5bn a year policy to include dental into Medicare, which the party says will be a key priority if it holds the balance of power.
Speaking at the National Press Club in Canberra on Wednesday, Greens leader Adam Bandt will announce that the policy could be funded by billionaires and large corporations paying their “fair share of tax”.
He will also say the party is “on track” to hold balance of power in the House of Representatives and noted that the party had already successfully negotiated dental services for children in a deal during the formation of Julia Gillard’s minority government in 2010.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/12/billionaire-tax-to-fund-greens-75bn-plan-for-medicare-to-cover-dental
Bludging = + 100%….
I see a claim has been made that Perth is not a Channel 9 town….Insofar as the West (Stokes) has the only pulp media in town this is true….The reality for the West and most other pulp media is that even fewer are reading the paper…Added to which by having a ex-Daily Telegraph editor, the style of the paper (not to mention its content) is not worth the money.
It comes to our household because we get it cheap and sometimes, just sometimes, there is local news which is useful…..It also wraps up the kitty litter ………..
Other than that, it is a Stokes mouthpiece and is fattened up by a gazillion Harvey Norman ads……..
Rex
“The AWU are heavily invested in keeping the oil refineries going.”
Sadly on this one I must agree with you. This sort of weakness helps lose elections.
Labor should be calling out the government on the “Donor-keeper’ cash splash to oil companies as a waste of worker’s taxes. It can’t be a waste of the oil companies’ taxes because they don’t pay any.
Georgy-boy going to be on the Senate ticket… at #3?
Hanson’s been pulling this Ponzi-scheme for 25 years… how does she always sound like she’s about to burst into tears in this format.
Pity the future of the NDIS should the Coalition win another term.
George Christensen is going to be third of the One Nation Senate ticket for Queensland. He has no chance of winning a senate seat. Would have been better to have a crack at Dawson. A nothing burger typical of Pauline Hanson’s complete lack of political sense.
Watching Pauline Hanson right now makes me feel sick!
Populism on steroids.
If Labor wins, it will be because they made the election about their traditional strengths – health, government helping the little guy.
If Labor loses it will be because they failed to stoop to the same lows as their opponents. Cut the presser short so you can control the damn message – it’s luck of the draw for Albo which message makes it onto the nightly news and it’s usually a weak one.
D @ 10.04am
“Morrison flipped from smiling to a look of utter contempt.”
The same contempt they have truck loads of for anyone attempting to expose their disingenuous, non transparent methods.
Morrison and “his” party will not last the campaign without an implosion.
And that will occur with and despite a severely compromised “I love to have a drink with Scommo” MSM and commentariat.
Oh joy, Pauline confirms that PHON will run in all 151 seats in the House.
Now we have to make the impossible choice of picking someone to go last – Libs/Nats, Pauline, or Clive. Uhhg it’s like having to choose between Latham and Howard in 2004!
Leaning towards putting PHON last again.
“George Christensen is going to be third of the One Nation Senate ticket for Queensland. He has no chance of winning a senate seat. Would have been better to have a crack at Dawson. A nothing burger typical of Pauline Hanson’s complete lack of political sense.”
***
A nothing announcement but it’s got Pauline some airtime.
164,000 people watched Seven News in Perth on Monday, 67,000 people watched Nine News in Perth on Monday.
The current Mayor of Perth is a former long time Seven employee.
Of course having the sole paper in town also helps.
I don’t think Zed will achieve much in the Solomon Islands. He was sent just so that Bullshitman could say they are doing something.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2022/04/12/australias-solomon-islands-diplomacy-insulting-local-mp/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020220413_WA
Just another cluster fuck that the incoming ALP Government will have to fix.
“Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 10:17 am
Cronus @ #234 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 8:15 am
Re George Christiansen
“ Last year, he said he was quitting Parliament to spend more time with his young family.”
I wonder what changed?
She got to know him.”
————————————————
That is very funny.
Socrates @ #256 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 10:37 am
Labor should…
Labor could….
If only Labor…
Labor needs to….
If Labor just….
Here we go again.
…as do you @mundo.
Sunday came ’round quick huh?
Antony Green made some great points the other day on ABC 24, which I’ll try to summarise.
Political engagement is in a constant decline, and many voters just aren’t paying attention. In 2019, according to Green, Labor was not a party that erring voters gave their preferences to. The ALP was the widely accepted favourite and became much maligned during the campaign.
In 2022, maybe (just maybe) the growing masses of disenchanted voters will hold their nose and preference Labor above Libs, blinded by their dislike of Scotty and having arbitrarily decided it’s time for a change of government.
We know this group exists and is key to any election win. Anecdotally, I would say they’re becoming even less engaged and their voting decisions more arbitrary. It feels like change is afoot.
It’s all very clear.
If Labor appointed mundo as campaign manager, they’d win everywhere, every time!
Taylormade @ #105 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 8:35 am
Pauline would be hoping that Christensen’s presence on the ballot helps get her over the line in an election she is up against several far-right contenders. Christensen is probably just after the payout that you apparently get for losing your reelection bid.
Firefox @ #237 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 10:17 am
Boom tish.
@Asha – I don’t think he’s eligible for a re-election bid payout…
Snappy Tom @ #194 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 10:46 am
That’s what Mundo thinks.
Asha @ #274 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 8:48 am
Would he still be eligible if he’s not recontesting his seat?
Thankfully, on the Senate ballot I can just exhaust before I get to any of them.
Barney;
Good question. I’m honestly not sure.
Asha,
Hanson will likely pull the pin later this year if re-elected.
jt1983 @ #192 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 10:45 am
I hope you noticed this is a rehash of my Labor coulda, Labor shoulda…etc..from 2019?
Anyway, I’m off for the day now.
See youse tonight.
Labor shoulda thrown a dead cat on the table right after Unemployment Gate. This is media management 101.
hazza4257
Might be wrong but i get the sense that most of the people unhappy with Morrison live in the Teal targeted seats or in non-Liberal held seats and that is why its difficult to say if it will be a big loss or not but as we saw in the SA state election there were big swings in unexpected places.
As for George,
Gimme the beat boy and soothe my soul,
I want to get lost in this Queensland Poll
And grift away…………….
GG:
Hanson spent eighteen long years trying to get back into parliament after losing her seat in 1998. My feeling is that she will stay until she is either voted out or leaves this mortal coil.
”
Victoriasays:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 9:35 am
Barney itb
The outrage is the way in which Morrison responded to the young man. He could have said any questions you have, relay them to my people and I will respond tomorrow. Tonight I am in the middle of this function.
”
Victoria
How did Morrison respond? It was not very clear from what I saw on ABC Breakfast TV show. He appeared to take a selfie with that young man and what else?
“Pity the future of the NDIS should the Coalition win another term”. yes there are a lot of people dependent on the NDIS. (not necessarily the clients)
Ven
I believe the unedited video is linked a few pages back
@mundo – yup – doesn’t mean you’re right this time. I had deep concerns in 2019, should have been more open about it.
I don’t have the same concerns this time. It might come, but elections are decided both months before the campaign starts and in the final couple of weeks. The meta of this election hasn’t changed. I ignored what was going on in 2019, and it had nothing to do with the media etc etc… elections are usually won by the party who most effectively taps into the mood of the country at the time – there was an opening but Labor blew it by making itself too hard an ask.
Morrison needs to do more than make people question Albanese, he needs to improve his own position, in concrete terms, not just relative ones.
The one thing I promise, is if I feel the election has slipped away, I’ll openly say it.
Mexican
Well we do keep hearing that Morrison is supposedly still a positive in the regions. Does this mean outer burbs too? We’ll have to wait and see.
As you say, the disdain for him in the cities won’t change many seats from Liberal to Labor.
But any money spent by the Libs to shore up Kooyong and Wentworth can’t be spent in Chisholm or Swan. Given the number of billboards around Kooyong currently, it’s not an insignificant phenomenon combined with Labor concentrating its spending in genuinely winnable seats.
So far there has been no announcement from Morrison and his cronies to offer a reason for every day citizens of Australia to vote for lib/nats.
The majority who have been offered finance payment/grants are the political donors of lib/nats
Firefox says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 10:42 am
A nothing announcement but it’s got Pauline some airtime.
—
It’s not a nothing announcement. It was never about Christensen getting into the Senate. It was about trying to get more Liberals in areas like Dawson to vote One Nation. It’s not going to change the actual outcome, but they get funding based on number of votes.
The truth is, One Nation has always been a money-raising operation. I have a friend who tried to be a candidate for them, for Rankin. They rejected him because he didn’t have enough money to funnel into the campaign – they were basically explicit about it. And around the same time, it came out that they were requiring their candidates to do everything (like corflutes, for example) through a company owned by the party’s head people.
This wasn’t about airtime. It was about leveraging Christensen’s inexplicable popularity in the area to get more money. You can bet that there was a behind-the-scenes deal that Christensen gets a cut of the money.
What would be hilarious is if Christensen gets a heap of BTL votes (from typical ON voters) that lead to him winning and Hanson losing. Terrible for the country, but hilarious to watch Hanson’s reaction.
Lars…quoting who watches what station for the news in Perth is pointless…
I am sure this is happening elsewhere, but in Perth we get two Channel news from 5-6pm and then another hour until 7 pm. The point of this is beyond anyone here…
Channel 7 may have a local news at 6pm but at any other time in the Hermit Kingdom any of Channel 9/7 news is from Melbourne/Sydney/Brisbane – usually showing a car going through a fence in Clayton or Dandenong or somewhere – like, who gives a stuff?
I am amazed that over 200,000 people are watching Channel 7/9 news at any one time at all……….I doubt this….and I would bet most of the 200,000 are over 50 years of age……….
jt1983
For me, twittering is something I only hear from the multitudinous birdlife. An enjoyable element of cave life in a semi-rural regions. Less angst.
”
Pisays:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 9:46 am
Barney, is you have evidence of this being ignored in the past, show it, instead of relying upon innuendo.
”
Public came to know about it because someone gatecrashed the ‘drinks party ‘ otherwise it appears it was a open secret amongst Media and Pollies.
FMD.
Top of the online page The Cave’s daily ‘The Worst Australian’ newspaper we have
Note the cute “private event’ label. That is the only headline mentioning Bullshit Man.
So downwards and onwards to the rest of The Worst Australian ‘front page;. Hurrah ! The Rodent is still PM of Australia……………………….apparently..
The headlines.
FEDERAL ELECTION 2022
John Howard changes tune on Albo’s embarrassing gaffe
.
Howard has it right on popularity and leadership
.
HOWARD’S WAY
John Howard speaks out on China,
.
Albo under attack again over economic credentials
.
Albo to make health promises to ease hospital pressure
.
Albo and the election race
.
On the election campaign trail with beleaguered Albanese
.
Did Albo’s howler betray his biggest weakness?
.
Albo to make health promises to ease hospital pressure
.
Albo pulls a Swifty as he ‘shakes off’ awkward blunder
.
Would Albo form an alliance with Greens to take Government?
Lars Von Trier
Looks like we do have Pravda in town after all.
Research by the APH library, based on March 2020 figures, found a $95 a week increase to jobseeker would cost about $5bn a year.]??
That’s a pity, that is about the amount the coalition spent $5.1 Billion on invisible submarines.
“It was about leveraging Christensen’s inexplicable popularity in the area to get more money.”
***
Yeah that probably would have been part of their thinking too, you’re right about that.
Christensen will be third on One Nation’s Queensland Senate ticket, which will allow him to spend more time at sleazy Manila bars and nightclubs.
Is there anything more absurd than caring more about the political bias of people that post on a blog than the bias and collusion of the press gallery?