Roy Morgan seems to have moved to weekly reporting of its federal voting intention numbers, with a poll published last night showing Labor’s two-party lead in from 58-42 to 57-43 through a survey period that ran from last Monday to Sunday. However, this masks a three-and-a-half point drop in Labor’s primary vote to 36%, which only does minor damage on two-party preferred because the Coalition is also down, by half a point to 32.5%, and Labor has done even better than usual this time on Morgan’s respondent-allocated preference flow. If preferences from 2019 were applied to these figures, the result would come out to about 55-45, in from amount 56.5-43.5 last time. For the minor parties, the Greens and One Nation are each up one-and-a-half, to 12.5% and 5% respectively – respectively their equal best and actual best results for the term – and the United Australia Party is up half a point to 1.5%.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (unchanged on last week, a swing of around 7.5%), 58-42 in Victoria (in from 60.5-39.5, a swing of around 5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 9%), 63.5-36.5 in Western Australia (out from 59-41, a swing of fully 19%), 53-47 in South Australia (in from 56-44, a swing of around 2.5%) and 69-31 in Tasmania. The sample size for the poll was 1384.
Also:
• The Australian that Dawson MP George Christensen, having parted company with the Liberal National Party last week ahead of his presumed retirement at the election, will today announce he will run as a candidate for One Nation at the election, though it is not yet clear if it will be for his existing seat. The report also reveals One Nation will run in all 151 lower house seats, whereas it only did so in 59 seats in 2019.
• Labor’s awkward start to the campaign has caused betting markets to tighten significantly: Sportsbet is now offering $1.63 on Labor, out from $1.45 at the start of the campaign, while the Coalition is in from $3.20 to $2.30.
• Australian Development Strategies, run by former Labor Senator John Black, has a map showing federal electorates’ concentrations of 35-to-49 year olds in the highest income quartile, whom he classifies as “maturing traditional swinging voters and aspirational voters in the ages at which they traditionally begin to move their vote from Labor to the Coalition”. We’ll see about that, but in any case it’s a nice and easily navigable map of federal electoral boundaries.
Arky:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 8:59 am
[‘@Mavis – Come on, you know the response is “BuT HoW WiLl yOu pAy FoR IT?” and then that will become the story.’]
True but sometimes it pays to take a risk. I think it would go down very well in the mortgage belt. And it needn’t be fully free but subsidised and not apply to purely cosmetic dentistry. How a family of say four afford to go to a dentist is beyond me.
The clinics idea sounds similar to the Dan Andrews promise at the last State election for community hospitals. Serving much the same purpose. Ours is being built atm
Morrison handled the young man in an appalling manner. For someone who is media trained and a bloody actor as PM, could have responded very differently. But the fact Morrison behaved true to form when the mask slips, is what is a big fail for him all round.
Not Albo not knowing the cash rate which fluctuates on a daily frickin basis based on the financial markets.
Our media are pathetic
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 9:03 am
USA Consumer prices climbed further into the stratosphere in March, and the only consolation is that the painful bout of skyrocketing costs may have peaked.
”
Don’t count on it.
And
Albanese should memorise this US inflation number, which is 8.5%, and Australian and British Inflation numbers because media can ask and say “he is not fit to be PM” if doesn’t answer. 🙂
So,
Everytime the ALP get asked about costings they should say the price, then end the comment with.
Less than was spent on sports rorts.
I saw marles on the TV today getting asked about bulk billing centers. 100 something something million who care, about the same as just some of the rorts the government delivered.
PhoenixRed always provides this information. So far Victoria haven’t provided todays stats.
NSW meanwhile has had an uptick in hospitalisation and intensive care.
NSW Health
@NSWHealth
·
19m
– 1,583 hospitalisations
– 71 people in ICU
– 8 lives lost
– 18,265 positive tests: 10,299 RAT & 7,966 PCR
*Includes both immunocompromised people who have received a third dose and all people aged 16+ who have received a booster.
Victoria says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 9:18 am
An excellent comparison is how the media reported on Albanese not taking a question from the driver of the Labor=Xi truck as compared to Morrison not taking a question from this person and sticking the AFP on him.
In Victoria, Mask wearing for students from grade 3 to 12 will no longer be required in term 2.
Not sure that this is a good idea for the winter season.
Bushfire Bill @ #145 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 9:10 am
If senior Labor figures haven’t worked out how to put the likes of Coorey and Co back in their respective boxes what’s the point.
Humor, sarcasm, satire – when applied gently (at first) can work wonders.
Griff
Exactly.
Thanks Cronus!
OH suggested I google youtube for a raft of Morrison pressers.
End result the same!
Who gives a rats what Phil Coorey has to say. Remember his big piece
The woman who saved Australia. This should have embarrassed him into oblivion.
Remembering who reads the AFR Phil Coorey is perhaps without knowing it is helping the Teals.
Albo had a good day yesterday stopping by with Father Bob
”
Bushfire Billsays:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 9:10 am
One MP said the blunder was not enough to cost Labor the election, but there was no room for another mishap.
And who will decide that “another mishap” has occurred?
Coorey, presumably.
”
And create a sense of doubt and nervousness in Albanese mind.
Albanese had a calm and relaxed body language till campaign started.
Yesterday Lars commented that Albanese looked nervous.
(I know I know it is Lars and Lars played their cards beautifully after their return)
Every time we see Gladys berejiklian mentioned anywhere, we think of Phil Coorey and his woman who saved Australia spiel.
It makes us laugh each and every time.
Ven @ #135 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 9:03 am
Instead of the evening news we’ve just watched an excellent series on Netflix – The Andy Warhol Diarys. Documentary film making of the highest rank.
My blackout is commencing week 2.
This is something I’ve long advocated if one wants to come out the other side reasonably compos.
Also, when Scotty delivers his victory speech whatever you do DON’T WATCH/LISTEN TO IT.
I’ve still never seen/heard Monkey’s or Scooter’s victory speeches and believe it has kept me sane.
Arky @ #120 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 6:55 am
They “both do it” is in no way a defence of the practice, but to highlight that this sort of event is not unusual.
The outrage is because Morrison held drinks for the press, not because no politician should hold drinks for the press.
Its not usual for media company bosses to entertain politician but it does seem strange that the media pack would be socialising but then Morrison might only allow friendly journalists on his campaign bus.
Canberra Times
@canberratimes
·
2h
The factory which Scott Morrison toured to spruik the Coalition’s job-creation agenda is poised to shed workers as part of a restructure which will see more products made overseas, via
@D_JervisBardy
and
@gerard_cockburn
.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison visited Rheem Australia in western Sydney on the second day of the election campaign. Picture: James Croucher
canberratimes.com.au
Business used to promote PM’s job-creation agenda set to cut jobs
The factory which Scott Morrison toured to spruik the Coalition’s job-creation agenda is poised to shed workers
I reckon Christennsen may run on the One Nation Senate ticket under Hanson. He’ll lose but Pauline will probably pull the pin before Christmas and he’ll be elevated in her stead. Hanson is turning 68 in May.
Barney itb
The outrage is the way in which Morrison responded to the young man. He could have said any questions you have, relay them to my people and I will respond tomorrow. Tonight I am in the middle of this function.
GG
You could be right.
The outrage is because be press can’t see how unethical it is to be cozying up with the people you’re supposed to be interrogating. I know what the consequences would be if I did it in my work; I’d be fired. Deservedly so.
If the gov wants to put on drinks for the press after the campaign, when it is a reflection on previous events, fine. During a campaign? it’s corruption.
Stephen Jones MP
@StephenJonesMP
An Albanese Labor Government will ease the squeeze on hospitals by opening Medicare Urgent Care Clinics around Australia.
And all you need is your Medicare card.
Pi
That too,
No. It’s because if a politician lays on drinks for the media, he or she does it at the END of the campaign, not the beginning.
To those who say “Albo does it. It’s traditional,” I point out that Albo has NOT done it. Nor has he given any indication that he intends to.
Pi @ #175 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 7:36 am
Where has this outrage been in the past when this has happened.
The return of Latham’s “ease the squeeze”. Really?
UK Cartoons:
Pi
The media has always tried to get cozy with politicians.
”
Victoriasays:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 9:21 am
PhoenixRed always provides this information. So far Victoria haven’t provided todays stats.
NSW meanwhile has had an uptick in hospitalisation and intensive care.
NSW Health
@NSWHealth
·
19m
– 1,583 hospitalisations
– 71 people in ICU
– 8 lives lost
– 18,265 positive tests: 10,299 RAT & 7,966 PCR
*Includes both immunocompromised people who have received a third dose and all people aged 16+ who have received a booster
”
And I was led to believe that Omicron Pandemic is managed well compared to 2017 Flu season?
Ofcoarse not by you Victoria.
How will we pay for it?
Well, we won’t flush $5 billion down the toilet on cancelled defence acquisitions.
We won’t purchase real estate at ten times its value, even if it belongs to a donor
Etc etc etc
Morrison Captain’s Pick under scrutiny.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/pms-captains-pick-for-warringah-katherine-deves-wipes-social-media-accounts-after-transgender-comments/news-story/e1b41b73c646a5494eeee64928bba8f3
BB
It would make sense at the end of the campaign unless Morrison knows he can’t win and it is his way of skipping the end of campaign drinks when pending defeat becomes too hard to ignore.
The same media that has gone to town on Albo cos he didn’t know the cash rate.
And in fact the cash rate that they said he should have known, was not even correct.
They said 0.1 and it was 0.6 on Monday,
So how frickin useless and pathetic does our bloody media have to be.
Victoria @ #175 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 9:36 am
Oh goodie, invoke the ghost of Mark Latham.
There are some real thinkers down there at Labor HQ
Victoria @ #186 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 9:40 am
As useless and pathetic as they like until Labor decides it’s time to push back.
Victoria
The question was what is the RBA cash rate.
Meanwhile Victoria will be hosting 2026 commonwealth games. Not that I care too much about the games itself. Although the extra infrastructure and housing that comes with it will be well and truly appreciated.
Steve777 @ #183 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 9:39 am
We won’t gift 13b to companies who make profits during a pandemic etc…it writes itself. Just need someone to deliver it.
a) Latham was 18 years ago … no one cares.
b) The problem with the 2004 campaign wasn’t the policies.
Spare me.
Also Labor has been talking about rorts and waste… maybe people aren’t hearing it because it doesn’t start with someone being called a “c***” and it ending up in the parking lot. I jest, a little, but Labor does need to be sharper in its retorts.
Victoria @ #187 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 7:40 am
Do we have Schrödinger journalist?
I think you’ll find that different journalists follow the leaders.
Jt983
I wish mundo would spare all of us. Lol!
Barney, is you have evidence of this being ignored in the past, show it, instead of relying upon innuendo.
Open-ended Q&A in an election campaign, to which your worst enemies are invited with the intention of trying to disembowel you for a live audience?
Really. WTF. The purpose of these events is to communicate to voters the messages you want them to hear, not to expose yourself to daily humiliation by half-wits who appear in the service of the Lying Reactionaries.
Albo has commenced by campaigning against himself. This is absolutely idiotic. He must know the reactionaries are out in force at this time. They will destroy him if they can.
MB, a “journalist” that can’t be trusted to be impartial isn’t a journalist. When you’re sinking cocktails with the PM the night before a press conference, it is absolutely questionable whether you have the capability of being impartial.
Maybe if a reporter started their question in a press conference “Over beers last night you mentioned X. Could you expand on that for us please?” it would better reflect the dynamic.
Bludging @ #195 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 9:46 am
…’if they can’
Yeah, right.
So funny.
Of course they can.
Here is the website for the Sunbury Community Hospital. These were an ALP policy at the last state election
https://www.vhba.vic.gov.au/health/community-based-care/sunbury-community-hospital
I haven’t yet seen comment as to whether Morrison or the copper knew they were being filmed at the drinkies session. From my experience the copper did what coppers do & can’t be criticized- “just doing my job mate…”. But it shows the purely transactional Morrison in a shocking light, not at all the avuncular soul who seemed to pop in everywhere for a friendly beer in 2019.
And the press that let him get away with that illusion in 2019 are the press who’ll let him get away with this.