Roy Morgan seems to have moved to weekly reporting of its federal voting intention numbers, with a poll published last night showing Labor’s two-party lead in from 58-42 to 57-43 through a survey period that ran from last Monday to Sunday. However, this masks a three-and-a-half point drop in Labor’s primary vote to 36%, which only does minor damage on two-party preferred because the Coalition is also down, by half a point to 32.5%, and Labor has done even better than usual this time on Morgan’s respondent-allocated preference flow. If preferences from 2019 were applied to these figures, the result would come out to about 55-45, in from amount 56.5-43.5 last time. For the minor parties, the Greens and One Nation are each up one-and-a-half, to 12.5% and 5% respectively – respectively their equal best and actual best results for the term – and the United Australia Party is up half a point to 1.5%.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (unchanged on last week, a swing of around 7.5%), 58-42 in Victoria (in from 60.5-39.5, a swing of around 5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 9%), 63.5-36.5 in Western Australia (out from 59-41, a swing of fully 19%), 53-47 in South Australia (in from 56-44, a swing of around 2.5%) and 69-31 in Tasmania. The sample size for the poll was 1384.
Also:
• The Australian that Dawson MP George Christensen, having parted company with the Liberal National Party last week ahead of his presumed retirement at the election, will today announce he will run as a candidate for One Nation at the election, though it is not yet clear if it will be for his existing seat. The report also reveals One Nation will run in all 151 lower house seats, whereas it only did so in 59 seats in 2019.
• Labor’s awkward start to the campaign has caused betting markets to tighten significantly: Sportsbet is now offering $1.63 on Labor, out from $1.45 at the start of the campaign, while the Coalition is in from $3.20 to $2.30.
• Australian Development Strategies, run by former Labor Senator John Black, has a map showing federal electorates’ concentrations of 35-to-49 year olds in the highest income quartile, whom he classifies as “maturing traditional swinging voters and aspirational voters in the ages at which they traditionally begin to move their vote from Labor to the Coalition”. We’ll see about that, but in any case it’s a nice and easily navigable map of federal electoral boundaries.
“ Johnson and Sunak are thought to be the first sitting prime minister and chancellor to be criminally sanctioned. Both senior politicians were also accused of misleading parliament by previously denying they had attended parties during lockdown.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/12/boris-johnson-and-rishi-sunak-fined-for-breaking-covid-lockdown-laws
I know right Griff, “they” have promised me relief over Easter.
Rnm1953 says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 8:21 am
Gillespie is quoted from 2 to 3 years ago that Indue card a possibility for age pensioners.
Does anyone have quotes from other govt members saying something similar?
—————————————–
Found this Ann Ruston the welfare card https://ministers.dss.gov.au/transcripts/5476
QUESTION:
So do you plan to make it compulsory at some point?
ANNE RUSTON:
Well, I’m not going to pre-empt that. I think this is the start of a consultation. I mean, we’ve run a number of trial sites. We’re seeking, as I said, to put all income management onto the universal platform which is the Cashless Debit Card, and I think then the conversation needs to be had about what are the advantages of this card. And it’s up to us, as a government, to go and sell those advantages in the hope that the Australian community will see the value of it.
So Bandt is going to the Press Club to talk about dental health.
I thought climate change was the biggest issue!
Herald Sun 13/04
Mr Wright was grabbed by Mr Morrison’s personal security, spilling his beer before screaming “you’re a disgrace”.
Mr Wright calls himself a “progressive activist in Sydney” on social media and encourages people to join the ALP and union movement.
_____________________
Probably thinks he’s helping, but
mainstream Australia hates that shit.
Journos attention span wanes after a couple of questions. These days they’re more akin to social influencers.
Morrison is very good at commanding the pack.
Albo will need to assert his authority over them during pressers or they’re going to eat him alive.
I have imposed a tv media ban here of the tv news morning and evening.
SBS world movies is our go to ,3pm. Tipping point…… then a movie
So far my blood pressure is holding ,but some here are trying there best to raise it………”scroll on by ……scroll on by….
Taylor, I heard this audio on FM radio news this morning and it plays like a reminder of one of Morrison’s absolute lowest points, the bushfire response which had a massive effect on the polls at the time. Nothing more than that. But have fun thinking Australians hate that. I think Australians actually really like non politicians having a go at politicians.
This one hurt Morrison, and you need only see the shrill responses of the conservatives, their communters and their cheerleaders in the press to know it. It feeds directly into the narrative that this is all a marketing exercise of the LNP. Peel back the veneer, and it’s rotten behind.
Hmm, even the media darlings on Twitter are getting ratioed on tweets when they defend going to drinks paid for by politicians on campaign.
I am glad the behaviour of our Fourth Estate is getting some exposure.
”
somethinglikethatsays:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 8:07 am
How does that bloated windbag have a ‘personal brand’? Just reinforces the view that people in FNQ really are from another planet.
”
FNQ? I thought Mackay (with a Uni) is within boundaries of Dawson.
And aren’t most state seats except Whitsundays within Dawson are won by QLD Labor?
This goes for all parties in my view.
Ronni Salt
Good lord. That doesn’t make it ok. That doesn’t make any of this ok.
Judges don’t “host drinks” with witnesses.
Doctors don’t “host drinks” with their patients.
Police don’t “host drinks” with perpetrators.
Why? Because it severely compromises them.
https://t.co/2F41g9lTp2
Scott
Re the INDUE card. That was a very equivocal response by Ruston and should be on Labor’s radar.
Coorey with the inside scoop:
Anthony Albanese and his team are contemplating urgent changes to the Labor leader’s campaign style after a disastrous start that has shaken morale and boosted the government’s confidence.
With the Easter weekend looming as a much-needed circuit breaker ahead of the May 21 election, Mr Albanese gave a public assurance on Tuesday he would “shake off” the effects of Monday’s stumble when he was unable to nominate the unemployment rate, the cash rate or the current price of petrol.
Sources have told The Australian Financial Review that Mr Albanese’s long, rambling, daily press conferences, which he regards as a virtue because he is being transparent, need to be reined in to be more like the style of Scott Morrison’s.
The prime minister takes about 10 to 12 questions each day and strives to keep his message succinct. Discussions also include putting more experienced advisers on the road with Mr Albanese.
Mr Albanese will shift the subject to Labor’s core policy strength of health on Wednesday with a pledge to spend $135 million over four years to establish 50 Medicare Urgent Care Clinics.
The policy is a trial for a larger rollout of the clinics which would provide bulk-billed, urgent medical care between 8am and 10pm, seven days a week, for fractures, cuts and other non-life threatening injuries.
Mr Albanese said the clinics, which are based on a New Zealand model, would vary in size and scale depending on their location, but would have the common goal of relieving the pressure on hospital emergency departments “so they can concentrate on saving lives”.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-changes-poll-tack-as-albanese-urged-to-sharpen-up-20220412-p5acsi
In a rich country like ours, free dental is a no-brainer. Labor would romp home if were to introduce it.
So it goes.
Climate activists blocking the Sydney Harbour Bridge – trying to help Morrison win
“Progressive activist” crashing Morrison event – trying to help Morrison win
Greens talking about “balance of power” – trying to help Morrison win
Taylormade
“ Probably thinks he’s helping, but mainstream Australia hates that shit.”
I suspect the MSM hates being exposed for its hypocrisy. It won’t be highlighted by the MSM because they can’t defend it so they’ll hope it just slides through to the keeper. Regardless of which political party, this is not best-practice media for our democracy.
If you think the PM cozying up to the people that are supposed to be interrogating him isn’t an issue, the entire Ronni Salt timeline will disabuse you of that notion.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RonniSalt
“Australia’s media seem to have no understanding of the concept of independence. If you’re drinking with them, you’re not independent. The fact that it’s traditional just means that the corruption is entrenched.”
“How likely are you as a journalist to forensically and meticulously grill a politician, without fear or favour, if you’d spent the previous night sinking drinks together at a private party?”
Yep. The “they both do it” defence doesn’t fly here. Unlike Coalition apologists, we on the left aren’t hypocrites about this. It’s utterly inappropriate for the political media to be copping freebies from those they cover and shows again how out of touch with the rest of business and society they are because this would NEVER fly in any other field.
At least when a motoring journalist goes to a car show as a guest of, say, Mercedes, they fucking disclose it in their article.
Meanwhile: thankyou for the Dawn Patrol BK. The intervention by the AMA is low key great news for Labor. The AMA doesn’t need to be partisan and they aren’t, but all focus on health policy and spending helps Labor.
”
Sandmansays:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 8:24 am
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 7:25 am
From the AFR, Phil Coorey this morning
………………..
………..
…
Journalism these days is all about money and gotcha moments that they milk to death until the next one comes along. I am not riding that wave to the election day – I’ts a bonkers way to live.
”
Well! mundo disagrees with you.
He is riding the wave and taking all of us with him on that ride. 🙂
Cronus says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 8:50 am
Scott
Re the INDUE card. That was a very equivocal response by Ruston and should be on Labor’s radar.
———————————————————
Yes, why people need to think about that when they vote and help to put the lib/nats in opposition at the upcoming federal election
ffs sources to the Australian?
That’s all we need.
Holdenhillbilly @ Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 8:52 am
One: why would “sources” talk to Coorey? He is the journalist with the strongest perception of parroting PM Office lines. Surely if you want to talk to the media you would talk to a friendlier variant?
Two: Is this a friendly story for Labor?
Add it up.
”
Cronussays:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 8:27 am
“ Johnson and Sunak are thought to be the first sitting prime minister and chancellor to be criminally sanctioned. Both senior politicians were also accused of misleading parliament by previously denying they had attended parties during lockdown.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/12/boris-johnson-and-rishi-sunak-fined-for-breaking-covid-lockdown-laws
”
The beauty of it is that it doesn’t politically tarnish BOJO even a smidgen like Morrison and Trump. However, it will tarnish Sunak political future.
@Mavis – Come on, you know the response is “BuT HoW WiLl yOu pAy FoR IT?” and then that will become the story.
Guardian has uploaded the TikTok video.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/apr/13/australia-politics-live-update-election-campaign-scott-morrison-anthony-albanese-adam-bandt-coalition-labor-greens at 7:48
Any other MSM outlet?
Paul Watt
I don’t know what’s worse. The PM hosting a drinks party for the press, or members of the press oblivious to how unethical this is.
I’m currently prepping for a colonoscopy.
They’ve flavoured the solution which induces the gag reflex at every sip.
Surely, there’s an easier way !
The election campaign has just started.
Any drink soiree should be at the end when the media blackout commences. That is last few days before election.
That is what I thought used to happen. But sounds like it was not the case.
In fairness to Coorey, he never claimed those sources were Labor party sources.
The sentence is perfectly accurate if the source is Coorey’s co-worker, Coorey himself, or Coorey’s pet rock.
Everyone getting surprised by the media being biased is weird. We know that opinion always swings towards the Liberals during an election campaign, everyone has mentioned in a bunch of times. Do you know WHY that happens? Because the Murdoch and ABC media go feral.
It’s already baked in to our assumptions about what will happen, so don’t stress about it.
USA Consumer prices climbed further into the stratosphere in March, and the only consolation is that the painful bout of skyrocketing costs may have peaked.
Inflation hit a fresh 40-year high as continuing surges in gasoline, food and rent costs more than offset moderating prices for used cars.
The consumer price index leaped 8.5% annually, the fastest pace since December 1981, the Labor Department said Tuesday, likely cementing Federal Reserve plans for an unusually large half-point interest rate hike early next month. That increase is up from 7.9% in February, and inflation now has notched new 40-year highs for five straight months.
Prices rose 1.2% from their February level, the sharpest monthly increase since September 2005.
The March quarter CPI will be released in the last week of April in Australia.
Victoria @ Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 9:00 am
In my opinion the latter.
If the Coorey story about Albo media approach changing isn’t true, it should be, that’s all I can say about that. I said before the campaign and “The Gaffe” that Morrison’s approach to using the media to spout his talking points and not answer questions was a strength, and letting journalists dictate the talking points of the day at pressers and not talking about what you want to talk about is a common Labor weakness.
Re Indue card…
There’s a smoko quote somewhere saying he thinks the age pension is welfare not an entitlement
”
Mrmoneysays:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 8:39 am
I have imposed a tv media ban here of the tv news morning and evening.
SBS world movies is our go to ,3pm. Tipping point…… then a movie
So far my blood pressure is holding ,but some here are trying there best to raise it………”scroll on by ……scroll on by….
”
I promise your BP could be 180-100 at the end of the campaign if you are not careful. 🙂
D
All the best with it! From those around from me who have had it, its not much fun.
NEWS 24 covering George One Nation totally missing the mark .. as usual..
“A blow to Liberals”… not, ABC still don’t recognise that One Nation is a sub branch of the Liberal Party.
I had personally thought the latest IPCC report had put carbon capture (very expensive very small part of the solution) in its place, but Simon says:
https://youtu.be/UOd-Jgly9Us
Griff
Agreed.
Voice Endeavour says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 9:02 am
In fairness to Coorey, he never claimed those sources were Labor party sources.
________
However, it is probable that only Labor sources would know that Albo regards his long press conferences as a ‘virtue’.
Q: In a rich country like ours, free dental is a no-brainer. Labor would romp home if were to introduce it.
Labor has tried to introduce free health care for over 70s, free cancer treatment, and various dental plans etc…..and got hammered for it.
Where’s the money coming from? I am not getting it? People will rort it? Where’s the catch? etc etc…
It is paradoxical but always backfires.
”
Victoriasays:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 8:46 am
This goes for all parties in my view.
Ronni Salt
Good lord. That doesn’t make it ok. That doesn’t make any of this ok.
Judges don’t “host drinks” with witnesses.
Doctors don’t “host drinks” with their patients.
Police don’t “host drinks” with perpetrators.
Why? Because it severely compromises them.
https://t.co/2F41g9lTp2
”
Well I heard police sometimes do.
Menzies did not provide Christmas drinks for the gallery at the Lodge. From Malcolm Fraser’s time on, prime ministers played host to a crowd of 100 or so gallery members who turned up for the free drinks and finger food, all provided by the taxpayer.
https://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p144911/html/Text/ch04.html?page=7
D
Fingers crossed for good result. Been there, hated the process, yuk!
And who will decide that “another mishap” has occurred?
Coorey, presumably.
Apparently the New York police who have yet to apprehend the suspect in the subway shooting, don’t think it was a terror act.
I wish they would define a terror act.
Cos I think someone who goes on a shooting rampage whilst throwing a gas canister in the mix, is aiming to terrify.
@Nath – it’s hardly insider knowledge.
All Labor leaders pride themselves on fronting up to the media and community and actually answering questions.
Compare Dan Andrews turning up to daily covid pressers, answering questions until silence and finishing with “any more?” Compared to Gladys who always cut and run, and Dom who didn’t bother having pressers.
Look at Andrew Barr, turning up to talkback radio every single week to answer questions from the community.
Of course it’s a virtue for Labor leaders to actually answer questions. They have a policy platform that is better for 99% of the population. They have to advertise it. The liberals have a policy platform that’s better for 1%, they have to hide it.
Scott @ #121 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 8:56 am
This needs a lot more publicity. Where there is smoke there is fire and we know they would like to extend the card if they thought they could get away with it. Despite the very high cost (going to a mate) and research showing little if any benefit to the individual or the community
Vic
Thanks Vic!
It’s a necessary evil.
Hopefully in my lifetime they develop a pill.
D
I’m hoping a pill that fixes every ailment would do the trick!