The post-budget polling bonanza continues to unfold, our first item of business being the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll courtesy of The Guardian. On voting intention, the poll finds the Coalition primary vote steady on 37%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, One Nation up one to 4% and the United Australia Party up one to 3%. A lower undecided rate and a stronger flow of preferences to Labor causes the gap to widen on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has Labor up two to 50% and the Coalition up one to 45%, with 5% undecided.
The poll suggested the budget had received a lukewarm response, with 25% saying it had made them more likely to vote Coalition and 19% less so. Twenty-five per cent said it would be good for them personally, 33% rated that its inducements would make a significant difference to them, and 56% believed the budget’s main purpose was to help the Coalition win the election. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1086 – more comprehensive results will be along with the publication of the full report later today.
UPDATE: Full results here. Also out today is the monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald, showing Labor up three to 38%, the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%, and a Roy Morgan poll with Labor leading 57-43, which I’ll cover in a new post overnight.
Also out today from The Australian is the regular annual Newspoll results on response to the budget. Here too the results are not as strong as the government might have hoped, the clearest indication of which is the finding that 40% thought the opposition would do a better job with 42% thinking otherwise. As shown in the chart below, this is the weakest result on this question since the Coalition came to power, and the third weakest for any government since the inception of the series all the way back in 1988. While quite a few other results are within its margin of error, all were notably recorded by governments in their last terms before losing office.
The poll nonetheless found that 26% of respondents felt the budget would be good for them personally compared with 25% who thought the opposite and 49% who opted for neither, the net positive rating of 1% being the ninth best result out of the 35. However, the respective results of 33%, 23% and 44% for impact on the economy were relatively poor, with the net positive 10% rating being the worst since the Abbott government’s politically disastrous debut budget in 2014 and the eighth worst overall.
The following chart shows the relationship between the net results on personal and economic impact going back to 1988, with the current budget shown in red. Its position below the trendline is consistent with a budget that was perceived as prioritising votes over the economy – a budget received favourably enough to score a near net zero result on personal impact would typically land at around plus 25% for economic impact, rather than plus 10%.
Also out today courtesy of the Financial Review are state breakdowns from yesterday’s Ipsos poll. Given the poll’s large sample size of 2510, these results are quite robust for New South Wales (sample size 818), Victoria (644) and to some extent Queensland (514). Not much should be read into the results for the smaller states, although I’m actually quite pleased that the paper has gone so far as to provide the results for Tasmania and even the Australian Capital Territory (the Northern Territory is rolled together with South Australia), while making it clear that the error margins in these cases are in the order of 15%.
At the business end, the poll finds Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales (a swing of around 5% with an error margin of 3.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (swing of 3%, error margin of 4.1%) and 54-46 in Queensland (swing of 12.5%, error margin of 4.4%). From here on, proceed with caution: 54-46 in Western Australia (sample of 251, error margin of 6.5%), 62-38 in South Australia/Northern Territory (sample of 186, error margin of 7.3%), 64-36 in Tasmania (sample of 54, error margin of 14.0%) and 57-43 in the ACT (sample of 43, error margin of 15.3%).
Prince planet at 11:57 am
It happened over here in The Cave at State level, as the fundy God Squad moved in their MP’s moved out…………………….of parliament.
With all the brawling in NSW I am very surprised this Bob Hawke quote has not been rolled out “If you can’t govern yourselves, you can’t govern the country”.
This idea of a split election is so totally ludicrous. I know we think of Morrison as the slimiest slime that ever slimed… but there are limits and even SfM is bound by them.
1. It would be a move of such political toxicity – he’d be removed.
2. The party would carry the stench all the way through the House election.
It ain’t happening.
Malcolm Farr Retweeted
#Mate
@SuxHypocrisy
What made
@AyresTim
&
@SenatorWong
laugh in #Estimates today?
It took 6 months for PM&C to work up the courage to answer a question about an odd $20K purchase.
#Auspol #AlboForPM
https://twitter.com/SuxHypocrisy/status/1510944788702371842
How unsurprisement
——
Rick Wilson
Greenwald: Mad at me for making him look like the symp he is with an on-the-nose satire of his sycophancy and apologia for Putin.
Also Greenwald: Not mad at Putin for the wholesale slaughter of Ukrainian civilians.
Boerwar:
_______
Birthers, back before US politics got REALLY crazy:
_______
Same style of argument; same amount of respect given. I’ve also heard similar from young-earth creationists.
(And yeah, I might’ve paraphrased that first quote a touch. I’ve always been a bit tempted to do that with those sub-lists he uses instead of paragraphs. Anyone who gets the reference scores a free beer if I’m ever in your town. 😉 )
“This idea of a split election is so totally ludicrous. I know we think of Morrison as the slimiest slime that ever slimed… but there are limits and even SfM is bound by them.
1. It would be a move of such political toxicity – he’d be removed.”
Yeah I think this risk of SfM being removed would outweigh any political benefit from a SfM pov.
It is also unlikely the LNP, or the ALP for that matter, would want a whole campaign that focused on their senators and gave the spotlight to the greens, indies and others.
Not to mention the expense, unless the majors ran dead on the senate contest saving the money for the HoR. Of course SfM would run the senate campaign from taxpayers funds as sitting PM.
Jon Batiste makes me smile. And I love the way he is saving the word “freedom” from the psychos.
Big winner at the Grammys.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YHVC1DcHmo
Snappy Tom @ #247 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 12:09 pm
I don’t need to. You are – as many do – confusing the UN’s 45% with Labor’s 43%. The UN’s “mark” is for the world, and comes with the assumption that developing nations will do more than that, because undeveloped nations cannot afford to do so. It also comes with the assumption that there will no new fossil fuel infrastructure, and that coal (in particular) will be phased out. But guess what both Labor and Liberal policies include?
So what should “our” mark be? It has been estimated (not by me, but by climate scientists) at something of the order of a 75% reduction. Not 37% (Coalition) 43% (Labor) or even 45%.
Labor setting a “mark” of 43% (when by the way the states have already set their “mark” at 42%) not only means they consider ourselves part of the undeveloped world, but also that even so they don’t intend to actually do anything anyway.
You might want to check out this – https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/state-and-territory-climate-action-leading-policies-and-programs-in-australia/ – and then ask yourself why the Liberals chose 37% and Labor chose 43%. It is an odd coincidence that that this just happens to coincide almost exactly with the range of expectations that the States will achieve without them lifting a finger, don’t you think?
jt1983 at 12:19 pm
Scotty reckons he was chosen by god to lead the country so reality means bugger all .
The PMO and PM&C will advise ScoMo that a split election is a stupid idea, and will lead to disaster and a generation out of office for the LNP.
It will also trigger a challenge to ScoMo’s leadership from Dutton and Frydenburg, which he will have zero chance of winning.
ScoMo’s response “Hold my beer!”
Slightly off-topic: it’s 10am and I’m bouncing off a graveyard shift, so online a bit more than I otherwise would be. I really dug that last page of psephy geekiness – the signal-to-noise ration really jumped there for a bit. *raises glass*
poroti @ #82 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 8:56 am
‘Crime’? Direct, real time, feedback to Russian forces on their accuracy. That’s espionage, working directly for the Russians. There is a Ukraine law against providing direct, real time, feedback to Russians on their accuracy , strangely enough.
So ‘crime’? Yes, absolutely, incontrovertibly. Ten years gaol, or ten years expulsion, which do you think he might choose?
”
nathsays:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 11:58 am
Astrobleme says:
Tuesday, April 5,
The policy is simply about affordable housing… It’s really not complicated.
________
Bullshit, identify the Bike Paths right now!!!!
”
At last I am getting your joke right now!!!!!
Anyone else get the feeling Morrison will just ignore ‘caretaker’ conventions if it suits him….
In tune with conspiracy theories, let me start a new one – Is Clive Palmer actually alive? Or are the UAP just keeping him hooked up to a life support machine until the election is over?
a r @ #249 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 12:19 pm
Didn’t Barnyard chime in on that?? Also possibly Turnbull. Maybe not in so many words
Poroti:
Bizarrely, Nick Goiran (in an unloseable upper house seat, a CDP in Lib clothing) recently took the Libs to court to try to stop the reforms David Honey knows damn well are needed if they ever want to run the state again. The fact he can pull a stunt like that and remain in the party is proof that these people are uncontrollable, and don’t give up easily.
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/wa-liberals-back-down-over-nick-goiran-stoush–c-5596010
”
a rsays:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 12:19 pm
Sceptic @ #248 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 12:12 pm
Conversation
Michael Rowland Retweeted
News Breakfast
@BreakfastNews
Long-standing State Liberal member of NSW parliament
@katieqs
says she can’t bring herself to vote for Prime Minister Scott Morrison in the coming election.
Very measured & cutting comments…
https://twitter.com/mjrowland68
It’s pure coincidence that all the Liberals willing to publicly call out Morrison as a bully are female?
”
Rowland has all/ shown part of the interview with CCussack atleast once every hour of their 3 hour ABC Breakfast show.
Clive Palmer has gone dark.
Also, ScoMo’s secret weapon* Jen is nowhere to be seen.
And Greg Sheridan is continuing his smearing of the Defence department, making a mockery of the ‘khaki election’.
A pathological syndrome: Defence’s promises are pure hot air
If Australia could guarantee its security through announcements, we would be the most secure nation in the world. For the past 15 years, defence policy has been characterised by epic promises and dismal failure to deliver.
By GREG SHERIDAN
Are the wheels falling off the clown car?
* Murdoch Press
Boerwar
“Assuming that the Greens are not going to pack their social housing clients in tower ghettoes, then a house/land package at the cheaper and nastier end would cost at the outer urban rim would be around $400,000 to purchase the land and build the house. Let’s say that total infrastructure costs per dwelling is $100,000. Say a million houses at $500,000. Five hundred billion dollars! How affordable is that.
Of course the Greens could make public:
1. the costings complete with assumptions (NPV, given the 20 year time frame!)
2. the actual land areas to be used for (a) the housing and (b) the necessary ancillary services for 2.6 million people.
3. the environmental impact statement
4. how the money is to be raised.”
Just more made up stuff.
READ THE POLICY FOR GODS SAKE! Stop wasting everyone’s time
https://greens.org.au/housing
Caretaker, once it commences, is administered by public servants.
In the great words of Sir Humphrey “politicians come and go”… we will watch our own back.
There are clear instructions to the APS as to what’s in and out and empowers us to tell them to back off. I did it myself last Caretaker to the office of an especially odious minister.
– Also I don’t buy this idea of Morrison the God-botherer, Morrison the Annointed. His commitment to his faith is as deep as his commitment to the Sharks – loud, shallow and for show.
Someone has been looking at the worthy credentials of that dump of new AAT appointees yesterday…
Clive will come out of the dark once the election is called.
Brace yourselves…
Clive Palmer To Launch Longest Ever 45-Minute Political Ad
https://www.bandt.com.au/clive-palmer-to-launch-longest-ever-political-ad/
“Bullshit, identify the Bike Paths right now!!!!”
It’s just endless bullshit with Boerwar!!
I mean he’s even saying the Greens need to account for schools, firestations, police stations etc. These are State responsibilities.
AND for some bizarre reason he thinks this means there’s a sudden increase in the population. Does he even understand the point of public housing?
It’s not to accommodate EXTRA people it’s to supply affordable homes to EXISTING people who want them. It’s just so stupid.
Asha:
“ Very interesting article from the ABC on polling accuracy:”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-05/election-2022-can-we-trust-opinion-polls-again/100965412
Peter Lewis (Essential poll), quoted in the article:
“… in the lead up to the election, [the 2PP] was about 49-47 with 6 per cent undecided“
That adds up to 102%.
I think I can see the pollster problem here.
Poroti, you are a stupid, pointless, trivial little dickhead.
”
Scepticsays:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 12:22 pm
Malcolm Farr Retweeted
#Mate
@SuxHypocrisy
What made
@AyresTim
&
@SenatorWong
laugh in #Estimates today?
It took 6 months for PM&C to work up the courage to answer a question about an odd $20K purchase.
#Auspol #AlboForPM
https://twitter.com/SuxHypocrisy/status/1510944788702371842
”
Can someone please upload the video video of the tweet on to PB. It is one of the most ridiculous things I have seen and heard. UK PM asks our PM to purchase Carbon credits to offset his travel to UK for G7 and PM obliges. Unbelievable.
Jaeger @ #274 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 12:45 pm
And it will be very easy to turn off.
Chalmers is doing OK at the NPC.
Let’s see whet questions he gets and how he handles them.
Morrison kicks over the stumps and walks.
He has a history but always has negotiated the outcome beforehand.
The legal determination could do it!
The demand for a split election and refusal by the parliamentary party could do it!
Jenn and the girls could do it!
Morrison has the financial rewards of office and only needs a catalyst to bolt for the exit.
Morrison will choose anything before an electoral loss.
Highly unlikely but not without a possibility.
Morrison possesses a very Trumpish mindset, devoid of moral or ethical integrity and nearly friendless.
The next four weeks could “throw up” anything, starting with the legal determination this afternoon.
@Douglas and Milko
I’d second pretty much all of that. Only because my wife’s history. She comes from one of the biggest arms producing towns in Europe (the place looks normal, but has a vibe). As has been happening for hundreds of years, the best and brightest leave, and the small town NEVER changes. The same local attitude to life (rules, difference is silently discouraged, your place/your lot), and the town’s social imprint stays enduring and never changing.
So yes, if I was Orban, I’d be making Hungary into a very small town, and it looks like it’s working. I understand Russia is doing the same now.
Bird of paradox at 12:38 pm
Goiran gets a mention in this article from 3 years ago . A prophetic headline.
https://thewest.com.au/opinion/gary-adshead/voters-will-crucify-wa-liberals-for-unholy-war-inside-party-ng-b881073077z
Ooh, ooh, which channel will Clive’s monologue be shown on?!
Can’t wait.
I suppose Harvey Norman will be sponsoring it, given the huge profits it will make from replacing all those smashed television screens.
U.S. COVID update: Artificial drop in cases as fewer states provide updates
– New cases: 29,818 ……………………………. – New deaths: 485
– States reporting: 31/50
– In hospital: 13,713 (-167)
– In ICU: 2,159 (-39)
1,008,679 total deaths now
Jeebus. You’d be pushing it to get someone interested enough to watch a 45 second ad from a political party.
So, why is Morrison going against AHPPC guidelines and his own CMO by calling for an end to isolation rules.
This should be a big deal with the CPG.
Jaeger @ #274 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 12:45 pm
That’s not well suited to the attention span of his intended audience – over by about 44 min 53 sec.
“The United Australia Party leader plans to release a 45-minute ad, which will kickstart his $100 million political campaign.”
Palmer and his puppet Kelly have been spending huge dollars campaigning for ages.
Is it 1 hour until the Liberals get their pre-selection fight result?
Matthew Guy is on the same reckless theme as Morrison re isolation rules.
Why are they wanting to risk overwhelming our hospitals and far greater positive covid cases/isolation ??
Taylormade …???
Rex Douglas @ #290 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 1:04 pm
Because Slomo can be perceived as the good guy – the freedumb fighter. And the State carry the can for when it inevitably goes wrong. He’s used this approach for more than a year.
Dan Andrews response
—-
Premier Daniel Andrews is a “bit surprised” the PM says isolation for close contacts is a matter for the states. He says AHPPC advice is to wait. “They made a judgment not at this time. Hopefully that time comes and we’re able to make those changes,” he says.
As per usual Matthew Guy and Morrison are playing politics with victoria considering the iso rules apply in every state and territory.
Also considering NSW is seeing protests and disruptions in the hospital system as we speak.
Speaking of Daniel Andrews, he’s given an update on upgrading youth mental health facilities in Vic.
https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/status/1511167915265245185
Surely Palmer’s 45 minute campaign ad will inspire Morrison to put together a one hour special featuring all his stunts, plus demonstrations of curry making, chook shed assembly and ukulele playing?
Wrong again, P1 at 12.30pm
The Liberals ‘chose’ 26-28%. If we achieve better, it will be in spite of them.
I suspect your incurable ‘same-sameism’ is simply a self-rationalisation to preference Liberal ahead of Labor.
In which case, you would give the lie to your self-proclaimed climate change commitment by preferencing in favour of the least possible action on climate change.
Victoria @ #292 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 1:10 pm
It’s just beyond disgusting how the Libs, both state and fed, politicise a pandemic.
I think back to Frydenbergs conduct and I would love to see Dr Ryan take Kooyong off him.
Bird of paradox says:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 12:23 pm
Boerwar:
Of course the Greens could make public:
1. the costings complete with assumptions (NPV, given the 20 year time frame!)
2. the actual land areas to be used for (a) The Wonder and (b) Hyperstation and (z) Eliminator Jr
… etc etc
_______
Birthers, back before US politics got REALLY crazy:
Of course Obama could make public:
1. A full copy of his birth certificate…
_______
Same style of argument; same amount of respect given. I’ve also heard similar from young-earth creationists.
(And yeah, I might’ve paraphrased that first quote a touch. I’ve always been a bit tempted to do that with those sub-lists he uses instead of paragraphs. Anyone who gets the reference scores a free beer if I’m ever in your town. )
=================================================
False, but quite creative, analogy.
The Greens have announced a policy to build 1 million dwellings. They also boast about how the cost all their policies. I am merely taking them at their own word.
Over to the Greens.