Morgan: 56-44 to Labor

More of the same from Morgan, plus further poll findings from Utting Research’s WA poll and a monster YouGov survey on carbon emissions.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan federal poll had Labor leading 56-44, in from 56.5-43.5 last time. The primary votes were Coalition 33.5% (down half), Labor 37% (down half), Greens 11.5% (steady), One Nation 3% (down half) and United Australia Party 1% (steady).

The state breakdowns have Labor leading 56.6-43.5 in New South Wales (out from 56-44, a swing of around 9%), 60-40 in Victoria (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 7%), 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 52-48, a swing of around 8.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing of around 4%) and 66.5-33.5 from the small sample in Tasmania (a swing of 10.5%), with the Coalition leading 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of around 6.5%).

The poll was conducted Thursday, March 3 to Sunday, March 13 from a sample of 1947.

Other poll snippets:

• The West Australian has continued to eke out results of its Utting Research poll, encompassing 750 respondents in the seats of Tangney, Hasluck, Pearce and Swan, from which the voting intention findings were covered here. Leadership ratings from the poll show Scott Morrison on 42% approval and 43% disapproval, which is broadly similar to other polling; Anthony Albanese on 28% approval and 45% disapproval, which is quite a bit worse (the most recent Newspoll breakdown from the state had it at 28% and 45%); and Mark McGowan on 67% approval and 24% disapproval. Further findings from the poll reported yesterday showed 31% saying they were worried about the COVID situation in WA, with 31% not worried; 34% confident hospitals can handle the pressure, with 38% not confident; 49% rating petrol prices will be an issue for them at the federal election, with 41% saying they will not be; and 49% holding that Australia should do more to help Ukraine, with 23% thinking otherwise.

• My own poll trend calculations provide the basis of this review of the situation by CGM Communications, which feature more up-to-date state trend measures than those presently to be found on my BludgerTrack display.

• A YouGov survey of 15,000 respondents, commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation, found 29% support for the government’s position on net zero carbon emissions by 2050, 41% believed it did not go far enough and 12% felt it went too far. The sample size allowed for breakdowns by electorate, which can be explored in detail on the Age/Herald site

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

871 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. Sa libs liost in wongs seat mean while ironic from Credlin who gave a interview to Somyurek who made sexist coments about his factional rival now she wants to protend shes a champion of woman given that wong is from sa the voters didnt liston

  2. Nice to see my home State is back with the good guys.

    Just need the nation to follow in a couple of months.

  3. Malcolm Farnsworth @mfarnsworth

    South Australia: 16 years in, 4 years out, and back again.
    In Victoria it was 11 years in, 4 years out, and currently 8 years in again.

    Possum Comitatus @Pollytics Replying to @mfarnsworth

    Qld the same. 14 years in, 3 years out, 9 years in.

  4. good t to see labor bback problim for Albo is he doesnt stand for a whole lot, basicly copying morresons pitch last time my aponent shortin in this case is a person you cant trust with nospacifick policies other then tax cuts how ever poles show Wong as very popular and is labors best attack dog in the senit sort of there version of Dutton rember msm used bulter wong and albos closist allie by fitsgiben to falsely argue albo had pushed labor to far on climate change when shortens policies were tougher

  5. ABC 19/03
    “But the revelations are deeply damaging for Labor’s Senate Leader and leave her on the backfoot in an election campaign”
    Even Tingles getting in on the act.
    Any tweets from Bongo doing the rounds ? He must be having kittens.

  6. aaron newtonsays:
    Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 9:58 pm
    how ever poles show Wong as very popular and is labors best attack dog in the senit.
    Those days are long gone.

  7. tto be fair i imagin the net 0 adds are ment to be satire because all i can remmember is the guy yelling rubish all the time which sums up the goverments failure on emitions reduction about as useful as the arm your self and covid safe adds for a markiting guy the pm cant sell covid cant get vackseens and it seems get good adds to

  8. Re Aaron @10:24. The point of the Zero by 2050 ad is to deceive, to give the impression that the Federal Government is doing something about greenhouse emissions. They should have someone shouting “rubbish, rubbish, rubbish” in that ad as well. The “rubbish” background is in an ad about waste recycling, for which the Morrison Government is claiming credit. I have no idea what the other ads are trying to do, other than general feel-good. Maybe they conceal subliminal messages (reach for tin foil hat).

    P.S. Your post looks a bit like my efforts when I type on my iPhone. My fingers are much too fat and clumsy to use that tiny little keyboard.

  9. According to a headline in the West Australian online, the local Libs are conducting their fund raising in the east because they can’t “drum up” donations here.

    I wonder what happened to the money raised at Morrison’s $14,000 a head dinner held in Perth recently? Maybe no one turned up or maybe he trousered it for his own campaign, although he shouldn’t need to do that because the taxpayers are currently picking up the bill for his travel and advertising.

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