The fortnightly Roy Morgan federal poll had Labor leading 56-44, in from 56.5-43.5 last time. The primary votes were Coalition 33.5% (down half), Labor 37% (down half), Greens 11.5% (steady), One Nation 3% (down half) and United Australia Party 1% (steady).
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 56.6-43.5 in New South Wales (out from 56-44, a swing of around 9%), 60-40 in Victoria (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 7%), 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 52-48, a swing of around 8.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing of around 4%) and 66.5-33.5 from the small sample in Tasmania (a swing of 10.5%), with the Coalition leading 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of around 6.5%).
The poll was conducted Thursday, March 3 to Sunday, March 13 from a sample of 1947.
Other poll snippets:
• The West Australian has continued to eke out results of its Utting Research poll, encompassing 750 respondents in the seats of Tangney, Hasluck, Pearce and Swan, from which the voting intention findings were covered here. Leadership ratings from the poll show Scott Morrison on 42% approval and 43% disapproval, which is broadly similar to other polling; Anthony Albanese on 28% approval and 45% disapproval, which is quite a bit worse (the most recent Newspoll breakdown from the state had it at 28% and 45%); and Mark McGowan on 67% approval and 24% disapproval. Further findings from the poll reported yesterday showed 31% saying they were worried about the COVID situation in WA, with 31% not worried; 34% confident hospitals can handle the pressure, with 38% not confident; 49% rating petrol prices will be an issue for them at the federal election, with 41% saying they will not be; and 49% holding that Australia should do more to help Ukraine, with 23% thinking otherwise.
• My own poll trend calculations provide the basis of this review of the situation by CGM Communications, which feature more up-to-date state trend measures than those presently to be found on my BludgerTrack display.
• A YouGov survey of 15,000 respondents, commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation, found 29% support for the government’s position on net zero carbon emissions by 2050, 41% believed it did not go far enough and 12% felt it went too far. The sample size allowed for breakdowns by electorate, which can be explored in detail on the Age/Herald site
You’ve stopped making sense, Earlwood. Al-Sisi and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia haven’t rolled over for the USA, last I looked. Quite the opposite in fact.
But, yes, Biden could issue Executive Orders, so could Morrison for that matter, however, in the wrong hands such things COULD be used to get at one’s political opponents, so having a legislative instrument to enable action to be taken, is the more sensible course of action.
You’ve got to love a Gallic raised eyebrow 😀
There a couple of ‘unthinkables’ in pinhead Hatcher’s SMH column that are worth contemplating:
“ Three. Australia soon will be discussing with Washington the options for hosting major US combatants, including nuclear-capable planes and ships and subs, on Australian territory, in rotation or home-basing. It might be unthinkable today and would make Australia a prime target for any Chinese hostilities. But the US will need to move some of its forces further out of China’s missile range; Australian governments of either stripe will take comfort from the further enmeshment of US forces into the defence of Australia.
Four. Any arrangement with the US could be fraught, however. The US could be one election away from abandoning democracy and embracing autocracy. A return to Donald Trump or a Trump protege would be all it takes. That might be the most unthinkable of all.”
Moving American nuclear weapons assets out of range, and presumably to southern Australian bases, will probably have the effect of causing the ChiComms to develop long range ICMBs as a counter. So, from an American perspective, a zero sum game. From an Australian perspective? A catastrophe. Thinking about this unthinkable leads me to conclude that it is absolutely imperative that Labor wins the federal election and has someone with a dispassionate and rationale understanding of Australia’s strategic self interest. No Wolverines need apply.
The fourth unthinkable is actually the one dynamic that weighs most heavily on my mind: the inherent unreliability of America due to its toxic domestic politics. There seems to be little point in taking out ever increasing amounts of insurance coverage with an insurance company that may likely go broke, just at the time when you might need to make a claim. We need tp spread the risk. that’s why strategic partnerships with countries like France, especially France, and emerging democracies and future major powers like Indonesia, especially Indonesia, should be given equal primacy in our thinking and should be placed on the same level as the American alliance. again. no room for Wolverines in that necessary strategic shift.
Kitching no doubt did feel she was being frozen out. From 2016 to 2019 people were probably very nice to her. She was a close ally and had the ear of the leader. After 2019 that changed. No doubt she was treated differently. That’s politics though isn’t it?
William Bowe @ #801 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 3:48 pm
The only remarkable thing about all this is a bunch of Labor right operatives (& fossil fuel proponents) yet again is trying to tear down a (potential) Labor Govt.
MSNBC
Trump’s first impeachment is pivotal to understanding the current war in Ukraine. https://t.co/LPKQ5eiIpM
The common theme with Wong, Gallagher and Keneally is that they’re all anti-fossil fuels. Funny that.
C@tmomma @ #568 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 8:58 am
.50 “Anti Material” rifle, clear line of sight for approx 1.5K, trained sniper and bye bye. No matter how many vests he or anyone else wears.
Speaking of rising prices in the Supermarket.
A few months ago the price of Woolworths Smitten Tuna cat food when from 89c per can to $1 per can.
Today it’s $1.50!
How do I tell Moggie she has to eat half as much.
Beaglie Boy,
Fyi, by referencing the ‘Puritans’ from SA it was by way of an oblique reference to the fact that SA was settled by Free Settlers of a religious bent, hence ‘The City of Churches’ appellation, but also because the locals over on the other thread were being a bit precious and sanctimonious about their blog purity. You could see them holding a hankie to their noses from over here. 😉
This is the main thing I remember about Bill Heffernan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwx8S67GRkE
AAron newton @ #609 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 10:09 am
Mate, do yourself and anyone else that tries to read your posts a favour, turn on spell check.
A surprisingly accurate prediction of Putin’s invasion made in 2019 by an advisor to the Ukrainian President.
https://twitter.com/foxlow/status/1505041691367325700?s=20
At his recent stadium gig Putin wore a winter jacket valued at $13,000 to $14,000 produced by Loro Piana, an Italian designer who seems to be a favourite of the Kremlin leader, according to the internet 🙂
The value of the jacket and its exquisite design and detail are additional reasons for a head shot
Looking at the invasion maps I am guessing that Putin is seeking to encircle substantial elements of the Ukraine Army.
I have no idea whether (a) the Russians will be able to complete the encirclement or (b) whether the Ukraine Army will be able to punch through those parts of the envelopment which may be thinly held.
shellbell @ #816 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 5:07 pm
Putin can afford it, if anyone can.
I did notice that that Vlad was missing his Botox. 😉
https://youtu.be/kqDGL-KWiOY
🙂
Rakali
Some commentators suggest that Putin’s coat was more expensive than $13,000-$14000
According to the UK Telegraph, Putin wore an Italian designer coat priced at £10,500 (A$18,600) and a white roll neck sweater that was a bit more humbling — a mere £3,200 (A$5600).
https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-updates-secret-code-in-putins-speech/news-story/6c6e9d02d3cada983a2d052471a22c4c
Putin looks like he’s been swallowed by that jacket. If you’re gonna drop $13K on an item of clothing at least make sure it fits you properly.
C@t
Try the immortal Boney M on a certain mad monk…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16y1AkoZkmQ
Snappy Tom,
Back in the day when the biggest thing coming out of Russia was Cossack Dancing. 😀
And the Bolshoi Ballet.
PRGuy
@PRGuy17
·
4h
ANTHONY ALBANESE has shot down attempts to “politicise” Kimberley Kitching’s death, saying the campaign is not constructive. The alternative PM renewed calls for respect and decency — meanwhile, News Corp has been slammed for use of “creative licence” on Kitching’s death. #auspol
You’ve seen the unbelievably long tables Putin sits behind so no one can get within cooee of him, well here’s the long view of the stage he was on yesterday:
That’s him, the little dot in a sea of nothingness in the middle of the stadium. So no one can get near him.
Extreme Temperatures Around The World
@extremetemps
Extraordinary anomalies in #Antarctica lead to historic records today:
-Vostok 3489m -17.7C,monthly record beaten by nearly 15C !
-Concordia 3234m -12.2C,highest Temp. on records and about 40C above average !
-Dome C II 3250m -10.1C
-D-47 1560m -3.3C
-Terra Nova Base 74S +7.0C
🙁
Quite a lot of material kicking around YouTube on Russian logistical failure.
One, quite interesting, is from a “former US Army Vehicle Auditor” who specializes in assessing and fixing repatriated trucks disabled in Iraq IED attacks, or otherwise battle damaged.
He has some choice comments on the wooden trays used by Russia, versus steel trays used by the US, coming to the conclusion that these trucks were designed for militia/police work, not battle.
He also has a look at Russian truck tyres and comes to the conclusion that they are:
(a) cheap domestic alternatives (with corrupt generals pocketing the difference between their cost and the cost of mil spec versions), and
(b) not going through routine inflation/deflation cycles regularly enough, deducing from this that they have been garaged for long periods, and not out on exercises, hence their crews are poorly trained.
To anyone else they’re just “trucks”, but to this guy…
https://youtu.be/iaz8RrsRKyc
BB,
…………………….A truck is a smoke!
Hopefully the incessant chatter about the promise of Essendon will be quickly nipped in the bud.
That was an interesting video, BB.
shellbell,
Looks like they will fail to win a final this year too.
Other clubs vying for the Premiership will be delighted that Geelong are now allegedly in contention.
” The alternative PM renewed calls for respect and decency — meanwhile, News Corp has been slammed for use of “creative licence” on Kitching’s death. #auspol”
There is no gutter into which the Coalition and their media allies wouldn’t crawl to advance their agenda.
Some may say “creative licence”, others might say “making shit up”.
Two comments:
1. Isn’t it great to see nath out of the sin bin and posting again!
+1 to the positive count
2. In terms of the punters interest ATM
Footy – 100
Murdoch Kitching beat up – 0
“Plunging ratings for ABC’s Q+A raise more questions than answers”
https://www.theage.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/plunging-ratings-for-abc-s-q-and-a-raises-more-questions-than-answers-20220318-p5a5yt.html
Maybe they should stop giving a platform to nutters? Then the people who used to watch the program will start watching it again.
Or maybe the intention is to drive the ABC into the ground to justify getting rid of it.
I stopped watching Q&A years ago when it became simple click bait. The discussions turned boring, the guests were invariably loud and shouty people, and it simply wasn’t worth the effort to wait up until late to watch it.
I wasn’t surprised to read that ratings are tanking.
And what will be an unpopular comment on the Russian invasion of Ukraine;
Mariupol has been getting a pounding in recent days.
It is the home to the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, and they are fighting back hard.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion
And yes, Virginia, there is neo-Nazis in Ukraine, as there is in most European countries. In Ukraine, after Crimea was annexed in 2014, some of these armed militia groups were incorporated into the regular Ukrainian army. This was done by predecessors to Zelinsky. And they have been hot fighting in Dombass.
Does this justify Putin’s gross over reach in invading Ukraine? No.
Does it mean that everything Putin is saying is garbage? No.
Does it mean we only ever get one side of the story in wars with our US dominated media? Yes.
Re Confessions @6:37. I haven’t watched Q&A much in recent years for the same reason. Then there was Tony Jones constantly interrupting answers. It was like shoutback radio with pictures.
Latest Herald Sun article on Kitching is from Credlin.
The hostility and nastiness directed towards Kimberley Kitching is a window into how shallow and vindictive our public life has become and would get worse under Labor, writes Peta Credlin.
She would know and is largely responsible
Sprocket
And yes, Virginia, there is neo-Nazis in Ukraine, as there is in most European countries. In Ukraine, after Crimea was annexed in 2014, some of these armed militia groups were incorporated into the regular Ukrainian army. This was done by predecessors to Zelinsky. And they have been hot fighting in Dombass.
Does this justify Putin’s gross over reach in invading Ukraine? No.
Does it mean that everything Putin is saying is garbage? No.
_______________________________________
First, there are a wide (perhaps too wide) range of news sources for people living in democratic countries in the west. So the stuff about the Azov Battalion has been reported in a number of sources.
But, I disagree that not everything Putin says is garbage. As you pointed out yourself, it does not justify invading Ukraine and it is simply a pretext for annexing a country that Putin, in his Hitlerian megalomania, believes should be controlled by him.
sprocket_ –
Most of it is garbage. Just enough truth to keep the propaganda flowing and Russian apologists stocked in whataboutery.
Putin has lied so frequently and so brazenly – and the representatives of Russia around the world are clearly under official instruction to carry the lies without blushing – I don’t know why one would bother trying to sort fact from fiction except to get clues about what outrageous behaviour we might expect from them next.
Just remember it is a special military operation – not a war or invasion – that is not targeting civilians AT ALL. And if you’re in Russia and you say any different expect to be threatened with substantial time in jail.
Twitter is unreliable but i read Azov battalion had been eliminated
It’s many a year since I watched QandA.
Even way back then I couldn’t figure why there were tweets rolling across the bottom of screen while people were talking.
I wasn’t much at multi tasking I guess and found it impossible to follow a fast moving tweet while trying to absorb what people were saying.
Tech for tech sake it seemed.
And as for Tony Jones. Another smirker.
Maybe Russia’s might is a bit like Mordor’s, relying on overwhelming numbers, intense violence and the spread of fear and dread, coupled with a lack of concern on the part of their leadership for their own losses. However, it turns out that they are poorly equipped and incompetently led. Perhaps they’re beatable?
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 6:54 pm
Twitter is unreliable but i read Azov battalion had been eliminated
________________________________________
I don’t believe almost anything about this campaign without multiple independent sources reporting. I just keep coming back to a single, inarguable point – Putin invaded a neighbouring sovereign country based on a totally false pretext. This has not happened in Europe since WW2. Everything else is subsumed.
Steve777 says:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 6:57 pm
Maybe Russia’s might is a bit like Mordor’s, relying on overwhelming numbers, intense violence and the spread of fear and dread, coupled with a lack of concern on the part of their leadership for their own losses. However, it turns out that they are poorly equipped and incompetently led. Perhaps they’re beatable?
__________________________________
It works when your country is being invaded. It doesn’t work when you are doing the invading.
nathsays:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 4:04 pm
Kitching no doubt did feel she was being frozen out. From 2016 to 2019 people were probably very nice to her. She was a close ally and had the ear of the leader. After 2019 that changed. No doubt she was treated differently. That’s politics though isn’t it?
_________________
Yeah that’s my thinking too. Though I reckon that’s just called work. I’ve had the same thing in corporate Australia. Now politics at the Federal government level is different because there is only one ’employment’ but at the end of the day if you don’t go in with eyes wide open about how it ebbs and flows over time then you may just not be as smart as you think you are. At the least you’ve not being paying attention since the early 90’s about how your patron can be gone in 5 minutes which is kind of concerning.
The Australian Government ads are coming thick and fast on commercial TV. They mostly seem pretty pointless. One is pushing the lie that “we got this” on emission reduction. One has the chorus “rubbish rubbish rubbish”.
Just read Hartcher’s article. That is some seriously unhinged thinking. If that reflects the thinking of our national security establishment, then there are a number of people who need to be assisted out of it.
I guess everyone is over at the south australian election thread
New Muse album announced:
https://www.muse.mu/news/will-people-322541