The fortnightly Roy Morgan federal poll had Labor leading 56-44, in from 56.5-43.5 last time. The primary votes were Coalition 33.5% (down half), Labor 37% (down half), Greens 11.5% (steady), One Nation 3% (down half) and United Australia Party 1% (steady).
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 56.6-43.5 in New South Wales (out from 56-44, a swing of around 9%), 60-40 in Victoria (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 7%), 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 52-48, a swing of around 8.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing of around 4%) and 66.5-33.5 from the small sample in Tasmania (a swing of 10.5%), with the Coalition leading 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of around 6.5%).
The poll was conducted Thursday, March 3 to Sunday, March 13 from a sample of 1947.
Other poll snippets:
• The West Australian has continued to eke out results of its Utting Research poll, encompassing 750 respondents in the seats of Tangney, Hasluck, Pearce and Swan, from which the voting intention findings were covered here. Leadership ratings from the poll show Scott Morrison on 42% approval and 43% disapproval, which is broadly similar to other polling; Anthony Albanese on 28% approval and 45% disapproval, which is quite a bit worse (the most recent Newspoll breakdown from the state had it at 28% and 45%); and Mark McGowan on 67% approval and 24% disapproval. Further findings from the poll reported yesterday showed 31% saying they were worried about the COVID situation in WA, with 31% not worried; 34% confident hospitals can handle the pressure, with 38% not confident; 49% rating petrol prices will be an issue for them at the federal election, with 41% saying they will not be; and 49% holding that Australia should do more to help Ukraine, with 23% thinking otherwise.
• My own poll trend calculations provide the basis of this review of the situation by CGM Communications, which feature more up-to-date state trend measures than those presently to be found on my BludgerTrack display.
• A YouGov survey of 15,000 respondents, commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation, found 29% support for the government’s position on net zero carbon emissions by 2050, 41% believed it did not go far enough and 12% felt it went too far. The sample size allowed for breakdowns by electorate, which can be explored in detail on the Age/Herald site
Drongo says:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 12:08 pm
Re AAron (or Aaron),
People can rail against the current standard of English teaching and English teachers (I used to be one long ago), but dyslexia is a serious affliction that no teacher, system or syllabus can do much to rectify. I call on all bludgers to show a little patience and tolerance.
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I have a little bit of dyslexia. If someone here with expert knowledge of serious dyslexia can attest to the poster demonstrating classic dyslexia, I am more than happy to apologise. But for now, it just looks like the poster is trying far too hard to pretend to be illiterate (and dyslexic maybe) which is a terrible disservice to those who really struggle with writing English and work incredibly hard to overcome the issues.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-covid-hospitalisations-rise-teenagers-drive-infections-20220319-p5a62u.html
The govt needs to do more to get people boosted. And with young people and children driving the new case numbers, at this rate the household contact rules will have to be changed just to keep the joint running!
Taylormade: What bullying complaint ‘made to Marles’?
Show evidence…
The key differences between the Kitching matter and the several still over the heads of various Coalition figures is that there is sufficient evidence to believe that the ones regarding the various Coalition figures might actually exist.
Yes, Evan. I’m biased, but if you can’t see the howling difference between these situations, there’s little anyone can do to help you.
poroti:
How was SfM’s trip out west received in the cave?
Not surprised he’s putting daylight between himself and Clive, but seriously, talk about a day late and dollar short! 😆
“Such a dire position in the lead-up to an election that you and your kind need to try and make the Kitching situation somehow even slightly equivalent to the Higgins/Porter (and other) situations.”
Hey ST, give it a break. In a fairly dire situation the Libs and their fellow travelers will grab at any straw whatsoever. I think that’s what we are seeing on the Kitching thing in general. Sad.
Apparently even a hint that the ALP may have, at some stage in their long history, not been pure and perfect on a particular matter (which no-one seems to have ever asserted) is justification for the Lib / Nats to be complete and utter bastards now. Its a sadly common situation actually. 🙁
poroti says:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 12:31 pm
The Cave’s local rag. What sneaky manoeuvre is going on ? It damned well won’t be ‘what it says on the carton’ .
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Pretty straightforward. In the WA context the Liar is trying to put more distance between him and Palmer (who I understand stinks like a 20 day rotting corpse there) than he did between bushfires and his family holiday.
The real sexism in this Kitching invented mole-hill is the assertion that the some of the most powerful women in Australia are acting like school-girls because they’re fulfilling in their roles as senior political leaders. It’s infantilizing women as a political weapon, and it’s pure Murdoch gutter-slime.
There really needs to be a Royal Commission into Australia’s past response to climate change. I can’t see any other way of holding individuals to account for their actions. Not that a RC can do much beyond putting them in a witness box (although Abbott and Morrison might be dumb enough to commit purgury).
https://www.watoday.com.au/environment/climate-change/the-failures-that-left-australians-facing-floods-alone-began-years-ago-20220318-p5a5qd.html
I’m just blowing a gasket, imacca.
Hope to be fully repaired sometime between now and late May!
BB
The parliament has a cultural problem.
Pi says:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 12:34 pm
The real sexism in this kitching mole-hill is the assertion that the some of the most powerful women in Australia are acting like school-girls because they’re acting in their roles as senior political leaders.
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Exactly.
Similar to the treatment of Julia Gillard by the media masses fed by Abbott and Julie Bishop and Peta Credlin.
As far as I know Kitching died from a heart attack, but it is like this “story” has snowballed into something about bullying, the implication is that she died because she was bullied… which is just weird.
But it looks like it was all about trying to bash Albo, somehow he is responsible for her death or something, or its the same thing as ignoring rape apparently, quite bazar stuff!
It reminds me of when Gillard was blamed for any or everything thing done by anyone else in her party, it was even her fault when a state Labor politician did something bad.
Such a different thing with the LNP, I mean LNP members get to spout antivax nonsense and Scotty gets to brush it off and then the media move on without a care.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 12:37 pm
BB
The parliament has a cultural problem.
_________________________________
Yes it does. But this case does not reflect it at all.
OC – sure SF owes Stormont nothing.
However – assume SF forces a border poll and wins with 51% of the vote ( and something like 75% of unionists voting to stay in the UK).
How do you reconcile these people to a United Ireland? Surely they are not going to immigrate to London or the North?
There has to be some genuine reconciliation – and its in the interests of SF to lead it. Stoop to conquer etc etc.
I think SF triumphalism is much more likely to make it a bitter zero sum game process.
The difference between the allegations by, say, Julia Banks and those by the mostly nameless individuals purporting to speak on Kitching’s behalf is that we were given actual examples of the former, and could therefore judge whether this was something worth criticizing.
All we keep hearing here as that Kitching was bullied and ostracized, with little clarity as to what this actually involved. So far, the only examples are the comment Wong made to her, losing her position on a committee, and that she was likely to lose her preselection. None of which strike me as bullying, just an angry outburst (later apologised for) and politics as usual.
If she was being systematically bullied by the “mean girls”, I can’t see why those currently backgrounding the press about this shouldn’t be able to provide loads of anecdotes of what this actually involved.
Marco Rubio (of all people):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/18/rubio-china-complicit-russia-ukraine/
Rubio was okay though with Trump kissing Kim Jong Un’s ass.
TPOF
Its similar to the Julia Banks case in that she claimed people were offering support and making threats about preselections and committee membership in the leadership contest.
Pi:
+1
My instinctive reaction to this story was it was her political allies in Victoria seizing a chance to bring Albo low after it was feeling like Labor actually had a genuine shot at winning the election this year.
All Albanese has to say after the funeral is over and anyone in the media or Coalition mentions Kitching again is, I’m not going to dance to the Coalition’s/media’s tune. And then move on.
Except Putin’s Russia is in no way shape or form a ‘communist regime’. I guess Rubio couldn’t help himself from throwing that bit of red meat to his base.
Confessions @ #720 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 12:49 pm
*cough* Bill Shorten, Adem Somyurek, Earl Setches, Michael Danby, and any other 2-bit miscreant with a chip on their shoulder in the Victorian Labor Right.
Mexicanbeemer @ #718 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 12:47 pm
For completely different reasons.
For sure Bullshit Man is trying to have as much distance as possible from himself and Clive . It is just that I find it a bit hard to believe he’d just throw all those votes away. There’s got to be a catch to it. Not that I don’t trust either of the pricks 😆
C@T
Albo should say he will implement the Jenkins report in its full.
fess,
A lot of those Trump era Republicans have very flexible ethics and principles. You sometimes wonder if they care about what they have said and done in the past.
This analysis by Virginia Trioli is spot on, IMO:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-19/kimberley-kitching-mean-girls-labor-party-political-battle/100922856
Jackol @ #723 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 12:49 pm
He’s referring to China.
These days the GOP’s base loves Russia and Putin.
GG:
Rubio threw away what credibility he had when he jumped on the Trump bandwagon in order to stay elected. It’s laughable to hear these people in the post-Trump era try to claw back some credibility now.
Women can play politics as hard as any man. Obviously a serious shock to the mans club that is the Liberal party and i would seem the Murdoch press.
And there’s the rub!
Despite the hand on heart declarations of patriotism from the non-SF swill in Leinster House do the y really want unity?
Imagine the Celtic Tiger inheriting 1 million disaffected unionists living in one of the more socially disadvantaged areas of Europe.
And what is worse – SF would be by far the biggest party in a unified Dáil!
But, while it should be of concern, I doubt if any of this is relevant to the bulk of SF membership – 100+ years of anger must be played out.
trivia: The SF motto Tiocfaidh ár lá “Our day will come” has a pronunciation similar to “Chalkie ar la”. Some in the south feel that this sums up SF membership which has an over preponderance of school teachers – good for spreading Irish national propaganda but of no practical use.
BK
A belated thanks .
confessions – ah yes, I skipped ahead to the bit about not aiding Putin and missed the Beijing reference.
Not that China is really ‘communist’ except as a naming convention of their ruling party.
C@T
The current laws place the feelings of the person affected ahead of the intent of the person causing offense and there are differences but a threat about preselection is a threat. The problem is that politics is about making deals and negotiating positions and that can get heated but the media is two faced about their own.
The first time I heard anyone making a connection between tensions within the ALP and Kimberley Kitching’s death was Bill Shorten on radio the morning after. I thought I had misheard it the first time.
Mind you it was an oblique remark and, if you were viewing it charitably, could be seen as an immediate reaction to the grief of losing a close colleague unexpectedly, and as a reflection on the toxicity of the political environment generally – as opposed to an implicit attack on those in the ALP who had strong differences with her. Even so I thought it was at least ambiguous and not a prudent public comment.
Unfortunately Shorten’s remarks may have been seen as giving the media permission to pursue that line – an opportunity that the Murdoch crowd would enthusiastically embrace.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 12:47 pm
TPOF
Its similar to the Julia Banks case in that she claimed people were offering support and making threats about preselections and committee membership in the leadership contest.
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Some here would know better than me about it, but it sounds like just about every preselection contest for a major party (and not a few minor ones as well) that has ever been.
Julia Banks actually quit. And she didn’t come from a knock-down drag-it-out political background with long-standing factional membership who gave as good as she got. She came from private business and believed the bullshit about needing more women (and people with broader experience than just politics) in the Parliament.
There are closer correlations with Emma Husar, in the sense that both women were welcomed in when it was thought they would burnish the brand but not treated particularly well when they got there. (Although there are many, many differences between the two cases).
Albo did a good job addressing the Kitching issue just now. He recognized that the media are being ‘pushed’ to continue to ask questions about it.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #660 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 11:36 am
An intelligent person or government would use it judiciously and not as some sort of culture war tool to beat its opponents around the head with.
And speaking of intelligence it appears to me that you are constitutionally opposed to it simply because of some fanciful notion that it will be used against ‘enemies of the state’, when, in reality, it has been used against enemies of the people that governments are sworn to protect and who should do as much. And if you don’t think that oligarchs are enemies of the people, as well as the Authoritarian dictators they coddle in exchange for free reign in the Treasury, then you need a lesson in Public Benefit Vs Private Greed.
I also note that you continue to allude fancifully to the Magnitsky Act’s besmirching of Human Rights. Not that you have provided an evidentiary basis for the assertion. Simply attempting to create a boogie man around the Magnitsky Act by linking it emotionally to the trouncing, in some way, of human rights.
I know you are a lawyer who is paid to argue cases, whether they be evidentiary-based or not, but this argument which you are attempting to put over the try line, just makes no sense at all when you compare it to the other side of the coin, that being no Magnitsky Act at all and people like Putin and the oligarchs, or for that matter, the oligarchs who support Xi, should they also step over the line with him, getting their just desserts, as there is no other way to get them where it hurts. In the ill gotten gains.
Mexicanbeemer @ #726 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 12:54 pm
Yes. Good idea.
Strong rumour is the main political reason for the media to be in horrid propaganda against labor
Fed lib/nats combined primary vote in opinion polling which is occurring has a 2 in front of it
>For sure Bullshit Man is trying to have as much distance as possible from himself and Clive . It is just that I find it a bit hard to believe he’d just throw all those votes away. There’s got to be a catch to it. Not that I don’t trust either of the pricks
UAP’s total vote is SFA, and a large chunk of those voters would preference whatever party they would have preferenced anyway no matter what Palmer’s HTV says. That leaves aside that Palmer himself isn’t going to preference Labor no matter what Morrison says. On the other hand, suggesting you are dealing with Palmer is going to lose votes, and not to the UAP.
We talk about how the media are covering the Kitchings story now look at how they are covering the Morris story.
Hmm… I see Pollbludgers very own Lionel Hutz was trawling the archives all night trying to find dirt to defame and smear.
Very poor and ineffectual attempt indeed.
I would tend to agree with A_E that if you have something like a Magnitsky Act then it should be exercised consistently and at arms length from political concerns.
If that means having an independent quasi-judicial body to hear requests from government or NGOs and gather corroborating evidence before making rulings that could trigger the operation of a Magnistky Act, then that’s what we should have.
This story developed during the week and still appears unresolved Another example of Morrison politicking when people are in need.
Last week, New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet secured a “handshake agreement” with Prime Minister Scott Morrison that they would do “whatever is required” to support residents devastated by floods in the Northern Rivers region.
Over the weekend, NSW ministers and departmental officials worked to develop and test a recovery funding package. The details were finalised on Tuesday, before being signed off by the premier and passed through an out-of-session expenditure review committee.
At time of press, however, there had been no response from the federal government. Morrison’s office has gone silent.
“I’m not sure what the hold-up is,” a senior NSW government source told The Saturday Paper. “We’ve signed our package, is my point. And the prime minister’s office or the treasurer’s office has not come back to us to say ‘Hey, we have a question about this.’ ”
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/03/19/morrison-failed-act-flood-relief-handshake/164760840013514#mtr
Simon at 1:21 pm
Yeah, I suppose he’s not risking too much when it comes to Clive’s votes out the Wild West. Besides we all love SfM now after he told us how totally onboard he truly rooly is with Mark McGowan and our border closures and rules 😆
This is sneaking under the radar
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-16/liberal-upper-house-mp-to-quit-over-flood-funding/100914460
A Liberal upper house MP is resigning and a Northern Rivers mayor has gone to the Governor-General over concerns about perceived favouritism in the allocation of federal flood assistance.
What is the Governor General meant to do about it?
There’s a guy up the road from us who has UAP campaigning material on his fence. Going to town this morning I noticed that someone had drawn swastikas on the corflutes, and it wasn’t me.
Definitely one of Murphy’s better pieces:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/mar/19/kimberley-kitchings-death-and-its-aftermath-are-another-glimpse-into-the-routine-brutality-of-australian-politics