A new thread is needed, but I’m way too busy right now to produce content to hang it off like I normally would. So beyond pointing out that Newspoll should be along on Sunday evening if its recent form is any guide, I can only draw your attention to other recent posts on next week’s South Australian state election, the situation in Ukraine and related international matters (courtesy of Adrian Beaumount), and a Tasmanian state poll that suggests the Gutwein government’s dominance isn’t quite what it was. Beyond that, over to you.
Zoomster,
re Shorten v Kennet. says it all really.
Asha @ #642 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 7:26 pm
So if you vote 1 Labor above the line in ACT, where does Labor have Zed in their preferences ..?
“So if you vote 1 Labor above the line in ACT, where does Labor have Zed in their preferences ..?”
Unless there are only 6 boxes above the line, then nowhere at all I would expect.
It doesn’t work like that any more Rex, group voting tickets were abolished in 2016. It’s up to voters now how they choose to direct their preferences.
I don’t think we need another Govt agency. Surely the ADF is capable of this work.
Embarrassing comment from sexy Rexy:
Responding to: “He (Shorten) will speak with NDIS recipients and providers at a $15 per head forum”
Rexy:
“Isn’t that his job that we already pay him to do …?”
Taking a wild stab, I suspect that none of that $15 goes to shorten.
Perhaps hall hire, or to cover the costs of scotch finger shortbreads. Per page some modest fundraising for the local ALP branches.
What a flog you are.
Boer
Bandt is managing the Greens out.
(Don’t @ me people, it’s a joke…)
Andrew_Earlwood @ #655 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 7:38 pm
Collecting the cash in an Aldi bag perhaps …?
Rex
I can assure you every cent raised will go to the local ALP campaign.
In 2005 Sukkar worked as a taxation consultant at accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers From 2006 he spent seven years working as a tax lawyer with the firm Blake Dawson Waldron.
I guess it’s safe to assume Sukkar isn’t in favour of supporting the greater good. Hence his view on States picking up tab on natural disasters
zoomster @ #658 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 7:43 pm
It’s his job already to talk to those people.
It’s. A. Fundraiser.
I swear – Shorten derangement syndrome is as painful to read as any of the other bizarrely personal obsessions people have about political figures.
NDIS recipients and providers shouldn’t have to pay to speak to the Opposition NDIS shadow minister.
Fumbles:
The 2004-2007 Bludgertrack shows a pretty noticeable narrowing, going from a Labor TPP nearing 60 in early-mid 2007 to 52.2-47.8 on election day.
That said, everyone talks about the narrowing, but there’s been some notable widenings as well. 2004 saw both, with the government regaining ground and drawing even with Labor, before gaining the lead and continuing to widen the gap until the election.
2013’s an odd one. The election day result was certainly tighter than much of the polling of 2010-2013 term had suggested it would be, but after his initial honeymoon, Rudd 2.0’s reign featured a consistent widening of the opposition’s lead, with the TPP progressively blowing out further and further.
Far less data to go off of in 1975, but I believe there were several polls right before the dismissal that suggested the government were back in front, so the actual election result would represent a massive widening if so.
On the state level, there was definitely no narrowing during the changes of government in NSW 2011 and QLD 2011.
Of course, this is definitely a case where “past performance does not guarantee future returns” applies. There have only been 46 federal elections in Australia. That’s not a big sample size.
I’m thinking 55-45 for this Newspoll. Mind you, i think the floods debacle and it being all over television in the Red Cross Appeal last night, which raised $25M I heard, is going to put a dent in Morrison’s leadership and damage his Liberal brand further in the next one.
Next Scomo wants to distance himself completely {they don’t want him there anyway} from the South Australian election loss next weekend. His last hope to get some clean mainstream media air time to flog his Khaki election crap is to get a lift from his budget but the next days news is going to drown out his message with the Shane Warne Memorial on the next day. Karma Scotty, Karma.
But that is only half of the equation. What we don’t know about yet is the ghost campaign run on social media and by direct mail and email, driven by the parties’ huge data bases and sophisticated software, with messages targeted not to whole seats, but individual families in marginal seats. Newspoll does not account for this element of the game very well.
Dr Fumbles at 7.23pm re ‘Narrowing’ hypothesis…
One poll during Howard’s Anus Horibilis (mispelling intended) had Labor 59/41. I recall several 57/43. Election result: 52.7 Labor 2PP. Mr Bowe or others might have harder info to hand.
Labor’s biggest post-WW2 2PP is Hawke’s 1983 53.2%.
The election won’t be 56/44. If Labor get close to 53, I (and, I suspect, the Party) will be over the Moon!
For reference: the biggest post-WW2 2PP on either side is Fraser’s 55.7 in 1975. Even Abbott out-2PPed Hawke, by about 0.4%.
Conclusion: there is an inherent ‘conservative lean’ in the electorate.
How the hell can any of you think it’s okay for the ALP to financially benefit by requiring disabled people and NDIS providers to pay to speak to Labors NDIS shadow minister.
It’s outrageous !
Don’t worry, Rex, most – probably all – of the attendees will be hale and hearty ALP supporters.
Rex – thank you for your useful insight
I attended a forum when Shorten was a Minister – where he said to people there who were from the disability sector (including me at the time) that he and the government were not doing enough.
I do not care about your cheap shots …. I have never heard a Minister admit that before then or after.
Vulnerability is strength. Your cheap shots are not strenth
Rex:
If you vote 1 Labor above the line in any state or territory in a Senate election and don’t number any extra boxes, your vote will go to the Labor ticket and then exhaust. Group ticket voting was abolished federally in 2016.
In any case, my point has nothing to do with Labor (or any party’s) preference deal. It is that there’s nothing “strategic” about preferencing an independent candidate above the Libs because you would prefer to see an independent win than the Liberals. That’s just voting for the candidates in an order determined by how much you would like to see each candidate be elected, which isn’t exactly a novel concept.
Rexy taking cheap shots, well I never !! Scroll. It’s a good thing Nath is not here, he would be the Shorten cheap shot band leader.
Rex Douglas @ #606 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 7:55 pm
How much do you think it would cost to travel to Melbourne from Zoomster’s area to see Shorten in person otherwise. $15 is minimal and probably barely covering costs
$15 a head is pretty cheap for a party fundraiser. That cost likely covers food too.
6-373. Kawaja got 160 and extras got more than runs than Head and Markus M. Silly boy – there was a ton there for him.
Last night GG posted this photo. The truck has ACT plates and the background suggests the vicinity of Parliament House. It’s authorised by the Advance Australia crowd (https://www.advanceaustralia.org.au). They seem to be targeting Labor but not the Liberals (no surprises there).
Rex, how much is that “do” in Perth to speak to Morrison, again..? Cheers!
I’ve noted the various suggestions for tonight’s Newspoll but I’m waiting for Wayne’s prediction. He’s usually so accurate .
Anyway Rex I don’t hear you bleating about Government Minister’s doing $10,000 a head fund raisers under the guise of something else for the Liberal Party.
I like to imagine a bunch of people just glanced at that sign, didn’t pay attention to the face, and thought “Vote Labor? Sure, okay.”
Is there any angle not yet plumbed by the MSM to keep the Warne topic going till the State Funeral?
@Snappy Tom
Thankks guys. very interesting, I guess my question was more about the propensity for a Govt to gain support closer to the election as opposed to the difference between absolute polling TPP and election outcomes. So a narrowing of support rather than narrowing of polling vs election outcomes.
However, another thing to look at would be how PV tracks up to elections to get around the TPP estimates.
Given past history I thoroughly think at 56-44 in the polls = 52.5 48.5 on election day.
“ Collecting the cash in an Aldi bag perhaps …?”
At $15 a punter, it wouldn’t exactly need to be a large Aldi bag would it. Keep digging, you pathetic flog.
@Bennelong Lurker says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 8:12 pm
I’ve noted the various suggestions for tonight’s Newspoll but I’m waiting for Wayne’s prediction. He’s usually so accurate .
________________
Say what you like but Wayne got it right in 2019, truely the stopped clock of PB.
Rex, how exactly do you think the Reason Party and the Voices independents are raising money right now?
Here you go Rexy. Comment on this.. Scomo is only charging $14.000 a head.
There are Liberal fundraisers that charge more per head than my entire life savings.
Can any one see around the paywall?
Show me the money!
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/age-pension-and-other-centrelink-payments-to-climb-from-march-20/news-story/25298d7b9f77169391327dce3c3090d7
Who’d pay $14,000 to watch this turkey gobble a cup cake?
looks like gmail is under attack.
Dan Tehan is busy campaigning this weekend in his seat of Wannon, getting photo-ops for social media.
Cant remember him concerning himself with such things more than a few times in the past two elections.
Maybe he is more concerned this time, or maybe he is just getting better at campaigning.
Rex,
You lost me on those comments.
To use a cricketing analogy- “a rank full toss despatched over the boundary fence.”
Rubbish bowling.
True indeed, Dr Fumbles Mcstupid. I must be less flippant.
Apart from the high priced fundraiser, Sandgroper Bludgers will be interested to see what Morrison does on his visit here.
In 2016 Turnbull came to WA once I think. Staying less that a day. Here late afternoon for some fund-raising that night followed by a defence industry press conference south of Fremantle the next day.
I doubt Morrison will be seen anywhere outdoors.
That Shorten do, $15 often would be for two, as those with a carer/assistant, that person gets in free.
And how, pray tell dear rexxy, do you get off assuming everyone with a disability is poor, or that only people with disabilities will go to this fund-raiser?
Entrenching stereotypes much, Rex?
Aussies 7/407 at tea. It’s Carey and the tail.. We could be bowling within a hour.
Asha @ Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 8:28 pm
I certainly hope that Rex is not the Voice of Reason 😉
Grime
Murdoch beat up. Age pension goes up every March.
Here you go Grim
The age pension and other social security benefits will next week deliver more than five million Australians their largest payment rise in almost a decade.
From March 20, the rate for a single person receiving an age pension, disability support pension or carer payment will rise by $20.10 a fortnight to $987.60, while for a couple it climbs $30.20 to $1488.80 a fortnight.
“It gives a higher weighting to fuel and transport costs in recognition of their significance to pensioners, which helps ensure the rate of the age pension maintains senior Australians’ purchasing power in the economy.”
Other government benefit increases from next week include the Jobseeker Payment rising by $13.20 to $629.50 per fortnight for a single person without children, and the Parenting Payment Single increasing by $18.10 to $874.10.
Fortnightly maximum rent assistance will increase to $145.80 for singles and up to $193.62 for families.
Social Services Minister Anne Ruston said the 2.1 per cent increase in payments was “the largest increase since 2013” and was expected to cost the government an extra $2.2 billion per year.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/age-pension-and-other-centrelink-payments-to-climb-from-march-20/news-story/25298d7b9f77169391327dce3c3090d7
p.s. if we get a feed for $15, when is the next fundraiser in Sydney?
Sandman @ #698 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 8:47 pm
Thank you Sandman…Mrs Grime and I shall spend it wisely on tastier cat food 🙂