A new thread is needed, but I’m way too busy right now to produce content to hang it off like I normally would. So beyond pointing out that Newspoll should be along on Sunday evening if its recent form is any guide, I can only draw your attention to other recent posts on next week’s South Australian state election, the situation in Ukraine and related international matters (courtesy of Adrian Beaumount), and a Tasmanian state poll that suggests the Gutwein government’s dominance isn’t quite what it was. Beyond that, over to you.
The real question is which one was the bigger pussy
Bloody hell!
Is Scomo going to weave a cat’s basket now, as a photo op?
There was a thinly disguised set up on Insiders this morning.
Speers tried the ‘ALP soft on Defence, soft on China’ line with Brendan O’Connor. He batted it back well.
Interview over, what do you think Lanai?
A: yes, I just happen to have the figures of how much Labor cut from Defence. Pezzulo in 2009 warned Labor of the rise of China…
And Stan, are Labor soft on China?
A: Funny you should ask, big danger, they were warned in 2009 and did nothing…
Well actually, if you see what Pezullo warned in the 2009 White Paper – which is what O’Connor intimated, it flies in the face of the PMO inspired set up on Insiders..
Lol Morrison must know his wife on 60 minutes couldnt save him, the cat is the last hope
what are the guesses for tonights Newspoll….I’m going 56/44 to the Goodguys
55/45 for me . Why would Smoko suddenly get a bounce in this poll? He hasnt been seen hardly for over a week.
The second ACT Senate seat will likely be Libs v Pocock.
The Lib senate primary COULD slip below 30% – I can see Pocock sucking votes from Labor, Liberal, Green and normal Indy voters. I’m definitely not alone in giving him support after Katy.
This isn’t the Greens time. They had a chance in 2013, but the AJP deal helped Zed as the ACT Greens backed the kangaroo cull.
@steve – you realise you justified a small bounce to the Libs in your own statement lol.
Newspoll guess, 55/45, there is a limit to everything! SloMo marginally ahead on PPM, whatever that indicates.
As a cat lover, I object to Morrison’s attempting to associate himself with that poor creature.
Also Cats are territorial and don’t like having to move. When the Morrisons leaves Kirribilli, the cat should be allowed to stay.
53/47 is my guess.
Going out on a limb here but 56-44 TPP, slomo -2 approval, ablo +1, PPM even.
sprocket_ @ #419 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 6:29 pm
Exactly as I said this morning. The consensus was ‘Let China rise’. It will put its economic benefit before military expansion. It will just be interested in updating its military.
How wrong Pezzullo turned out to be.
Speaking of Pezzulo, I wonder if he’s started crawling to Labor’s Shadow Defence Minister again yet?
Newspoll – I’m going for no less than 56/44 as that’s the current reading in BludgerTrack. I reckon it’s likely to keep widening as more and more people switch on to the election.
The Morrison/cat photo op is a transaction intended to soften his image with females. Clever marketing.
Socrates @ #425 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 6:44 pm
If they have to move, the cat will no doubt be left behind as being of no further use.
How much really could the government bring down fuel prices….10c/L…..20c/L…..is that going to make people happy?…..But it will cost a motza
Rex Douglas @ #430 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 6:47 pm
No it’s not. Everyone I’ve spoken to about it saw it as a completely cynical move by Morrison. Have you seen the memes that it has already generated? I guess not.
Quasar
“Have gone with a Hyundai Kona Highlander which has a 400+ range and is cheaper than a Tesla 3, which was my dream choice. (Once used Teslas come down in price , I’ll trade the Hyundai. )”
We are also about to buy/order an EV. However of the three models we would have preferred, none are available! For one the entire 2022 allocation is sold. The others are a six month wait.
I wonder how much business our government’s EV policy failure is costing the auto industry?
Has anyone, suitably qualified, ever given an assessment of Morrison’s basket weaving abilities?
‘Puff, the Magic Dragon. says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 5:04 pm
Boerwar,
You do not only need resilience, you need a weekend on psychedelic drugs to cope with that monster.
….’
———————
Yo, Puffy. Jenny the Wife had better watch Charlie the Cat.
C@tmomma @ #612 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 5:46 pm
Pezzulo got a reputation as a guru for writing THAT? I’d say all of that’s been bleedingly obvious for a decade to anyone who cared to have a bit of a think about it.
I am hoping that it will be something like 6 for 500 at stumps tonight and 9 for 750 at stumps tomorrow night.
This pitch deserves nothing less.
But to be clever marketing, it has to be believable.
Has Morrison ever posed with a cute rat?
I don’t see anything suggesting a Newspoll other than status quo.
You could see a small improvement for the Libs based on waverers coming home as the election nears?
Basically if Labor isn’t at 54-56 I’ll be surprised.
Put me down for a tad of the old narrowing. 45/55.
steve davis @ #606 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 5:35 pm
Tongue in cheek, you say. 😉
56-44 to Labor is my Newspoll prediction, with a further drop in Scomo’s personal ratings and Albo inching in front on PPM. It has not been a great fortnight for the government.
We have a Kona Highlander Electric and it’s great for us.
The Scomo bounce should lift Labor by a point.
I didn’t watch Insiders – Ms Snappy and I visited Sydney this weekend.
I note also that AFTER Pezzulo’s non-warning warning, in 2015, THE COALITION leased the Port of Darwin to a Chinese company for 99 years. Did our fantastic, balanced Insiders panel mention THAT in their objective assessment.
Or, did they provide further evidence to the ‘media bias conspiracy’ theory?
Of course the govt is going to cut the fuel excise in the budget. When has the coalition ever cared about the longterm budget outcome? They’re all about trying to give sugar hits to people because an election is imminent.
This afternoon I had a long chat with an old work colleague. He told me he had voted Liberal most of his life but there is no way he can come at Morrison.
He’s not the only old colleague who has conveyed that.
Fuel prices are a nightmare for the parliamentary fossil fuel cartel.
Voters could assist the introduction of better EV policies if they strategically placed their local fossil fuel cartel candidates at the bottom of the ballot papers.
A neighbour has a David Pocock sign in their front yard. I suspect he will have plenty of helpers at election time.
I think Pocock will replace the Greens as the main threat to Seselja this election. Of course, Seselja will probably be re-elected once again due to the maths of any challenger finding it extremely difficult to achieve a quota of one-third plus one of the votes cast.
“ 56-44 to Labor is my Newspoll prediction, with a further drop in Scomo’s personal ratings and Albo inching in front on PPM. It has not been a great fortnight for the government.”
There might be a slight repositioning of sentiment in both Queensland and WA due some state factors:
1. What is the sentiment about the state government’s handling of the Queensland side of the flood crisis?
2. Surely some of the gloss must come off WA Labor given the surge in Covid cases.
On the other hand, Domicron and ScoMo may have done further damage to the Liberal brand in NSW given the floods and their inadequacies.
No predictions, other than I think tonight’s Newspoll could be very informative.
Will there be concrete evidence to back up ‘the narrowing’ we all expect to occur before the election? If not tonight, when is this narrowing going to actually start?
I’ll probably vote for Pocock, but the Liberal vote has to drop substantially below 30% for Seselja to be at risk, and I don’t know that that many people who vote Liberal would be switching?
What will be interesting is the PV, LNP -1 , ALP same, GRN same or -1, Inds up +1 or 2, silly parties ??, cant see an ALP PV of more than 41
ltep @ #635 Sunday, March 13th, 2022 – 7:16 pm
Every non Lib voter in ACT need to strategically vote below the line and either not number Zed at all (if that applies in ACT) or place him absolutely last on the ballot.
From my observations, people in WA bear little animosity towards Labor for the Covid plague.
To the contrary, most are grateful to McGowan for the protection he has afforded them.
I’m expecting the PV gap between Labor and the Lying Reactionaries to close by a point or two.
In my dreams, looking under the hood of the 2PP, the PV gap widens to 44/30 in Labor’s favour while the Green PV languishes on 8% or less, leaving a balance 18%, of which the UAP, ON and the Christians would account for 9-10% (most but not all of which would revert to the Reactionaries), the various “Voices Of” would attract 4-5% and the balance would be dispersed among the numerous independents. I have my fingers crossed. In an election, this would deliver 55/45 or more to Labor. Very unlikely, I dare say.
Has much work been done on the “Narrowing” hypothesis?, i know in 1993 there was much narrowing but it occurred well before election time, 1996? no real narrowing, punters well decided, 2007, narrowing hoped for but didnt eventuate. Is it all a bit of a hope, like the Shy Tory myth?
Thoughts and prayers for a good Newspoll for Labor. 🙂
Rex, you keep referring to “strategic voting”, but what you’re describing sounds to me like simply putting the candidates you like most at the top of the ballot and the ones you like least at the bottom. That’s not strategic voting, it’s just… voting.
‘BK says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 7:09 pm
This afternoon I had a long chat with an old work colleague. He told me he had voted Liberal most of his life but there is no way he can come at Morrison.
He’s not the only old colleague who has conveyed that.’
—————————————-
Anecdotal and virtually a random sample of one, but we were talking to an acquaintance a week ago. Same story. 35 years a member of the Liberal Party. Jumping the Sharkies.
Jeff Kennett and Bill Shorten are both visiting Indi —
‘”Tickets range from $250 to $2000, if you want to sit on the same table as Mr Kennett.”
“He (Shorten) will speak with NDIS recipients and providers at a $15 per head forum”
‘Asha says:
Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 7:26 pm
Rex, you keep referring to “strategic voting”, but what you’re describing sounds to me like simply putting the candidates you like most at the top of the ballot and the ones you like least at the bottom. That’s not strategic voting, it’s just… voting.’
——————————-
Vote for sanity, Vote 1 Labor.
Vote for evil, Vote 1 Liberals.
Vote for sordid horse trading chaos, Vote 1 Greens.
I am going for 55-45. But it is hard for me to be objective about it, as Morrison reminds me of the leftovers when lambs are ‘marked’. Two tiny disconnected balls amid a bloody mess.
Isn’t that his job that we already pay him to do …?
Puffy, you are no fire today!
Bandt is doing the Greens slowly.