New South Wales by-elections live

Live coverage of the count for the New South Wales state by-elections in Bega, Monaro, Strathfield and Willoughby.

Full display of results: Bega, Monaro, Strathfield and Willoughby.

Saturday, February 19

The Willoughby count has been updated with 9673 postals on the primary vote, and while these have leaned less heavily to the Liberals than postals did in 2019, they suggest Tim James’ lead is likely to widen from here rather than narrow. James has added 4357 primary votes, or 45.0% compared with 43.4% of all either votes, while Penn has gained 2651, or 27.4% compared with 32.2%.

End of Thursday

Counting has completed in Willoughby for what I expect will be all votes other than postals, leaving Tim James on 8365 (51.76%) to Larissa Penn’s 7797 (48.24%), with 2085 votes having exhausted. The total of 18,247 votes counted is put in the shade by the 25,071 postal votes that have now been received, which will be supplemented by a small number over the next week, counting of which will finally begin on Saturday.

End of Tuesday

I’m bumping this thread back to the top of the page because the NSWEC is conducting a new two-candidate preferred count in Willoughby between the actual leading candidates, Liberal Tim James and independent Larissa Penn, having conducted what proved to be a superfluous Liberal-versus-Greens count on the night. With results reported from 14 out of 24 booths, preferences are flowing heavily enough against the Liberals (10.2% to Liberal, 42.7% to independent and 47.1% exhausted) to perhaps make James nervous. The numbers are available at the NSWEC website – they are not being published to the media feed unfortunately, so my own results display doesn’t show them. James presently leads 51.4-48.6, which increases to 51.9-48.1 if the preference flow so far is projected across the yet-to-report booths.

That leaves, so far, 18,033 postal votes that have been received, which is more than the sum of the votes so far counted with many more still to arrive, none of which will be counted before the weekend. Ordinarily I would point to the fact that Gladys Berejiklian polled 66.5% of postals in 2019 compared with 57.6% of election day and pre-poll votes and deem the door still closed. But that was from a total of a mere 2269, in contrast to the present extraordinary circumstance where postal ballots were sent to every enrolled voter in the electorate. It may be that, as in the United States, that pool of postal voters, which is traditionally older and more conservative, is now dominated by those most concerned about COVID-19.

For more on the by-elections, below is a discussion between myself and Ben Raue which was recorded on Monday afternoon:

End of Saturday

Counting closed last night with quite a bit of the pre-poll vote still unreported – I’m unclear as to whether that will be finished off today or tomorrow. In the very unusual circumstances of these by-elections, there will then be very little to report for a full week, since counting of the unprecedentedly large number of postal votes will not start for another week, as was explained here. There may be a few other types of vote added to the count (absents, provisionals and telephone voting), but these will be few in number.

What we may see is a preference throw between the two leading candidates in Willoughby, Liberal candidate Tim James and independent Larissa Penn, to supersede the redundant count between the Liberals and the Greens that was conducted on the night. James leads by 43.5% to 32.2% on the primary vote, which as it stands might be dangerous for him under full preferential voting, but exhausted votes will result in a weaker flow to Penn. Besides, postal votes are likely to widen the gap, with Gladys Berejiklian having polled 66.5% on postals in 2019 compared with 57.6% on election day and pre-poll votes.

The headline-grabber is Labor’s win in Bega from a thumping swing of 14%, based on all election day votes and two out of six pre-poll booths. Michael Holland duly gains the seat formerly held for the Liberals by Andrew Constance, who will now run in Gilmore at the federal election. It was a better night for the Nationals, who have held Monaro against a 6.3% swing, with four of six pre-poll booths in together with the election day vote. This is a fairly creditable result, given they have held some of the 9.1% swing John Barilaro picked up at the 2019 election.

Labor appears to have held Strathfield with no substantial swing either way, leaving Jason Yat-Sen Li with a 4.4% lead based on all election day votes plus two out of three pre-poll booths. There’s presumably a good reason why no one is countenancing the possibility that the avalanche of outstanding postal votes might overturn this, but it’s very far from mathematically impossible. This would ordinarily be reckoned a soft result for an opposition party at a by-election: mitigating circumstances might include a particularly appealing Liberal candidate, the popularity of outgoing Labor member Jodi McKay, and the fact that independent Elizabeth Farrelly, who was recently a Labor council election candidate, polled nearly 10% and recommended an exhausted vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

393 comments on “New South Wales by-elections live”

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  1. Re Asha at 10.01 pm

    In the 2020 Eden-Monaro by-election Labor did well on postals when it had not done so previously. You would expect that trend to continue in Bega postals, but much less so in Monaro postals. In any case it doesn’t matter now as the trailing candidates in both seats are too far behind to catch up.

    Number of postals is well up on 2019 but only over half when combined with pre-polls. Most elections the pre-poll results for a booth will be a few per cent more favourable to the Libs (or Nats) than the polling booth election day results for the same place. That historical trend is evident tonight in the pre-poll swing in Queanbeyan (3.7%) which is lower than the rest of Queanbeyan who voted today.

    A minor federal implication: it is now harder for the Libs to find a willing starter in Eden-Monaro.

  2. Anyone’s thoughts on Dominic’s victory speech in Strathfield, despite not winning the seat, where he was given a good ten minutes to talk how good is Liberal in NSW?

    While his candidate stood mutely behind with supporters strategically placing pictures of her lost child?

    Is this what politics has come to?

    I know I’m going to cop flak for this, but give it to me, it’s wrong!

  3. Bird of paradox says:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 8:40 pm
    The Greens didn’t preference the independent so they helped re-elect the Liberals.
    Any colour that is not white must be black. Gotcha.

    Some people here take the conspiracy theory that the Greens are somehow in cahoots with the Liberals to an absurd level. Half the Green votes (or whatever the figure turns out to be) exhausting is standard under OPV, especially with no Labor candidate.

    The Independents are direct 1:1 competitors with the Alt-Reactionary Greens. Of course, goes without saying, the Greens will not pref their immediate rivals. The Greens play is goal-assist for the Liberal, who will win. An independent maybe coulda done it if they’d had some help. But do not look to the Greens for help. The Greens would prefer a Lib. Job done for the Greens in Willoughby.

  4. Been Theresays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 10:08 pm
    Steely

    No response to the replies such as PaulTu and Dr Dolittle in regards your ridiculous comment that the swing away from the Liberal National Party in NSW is only a state issue.

    ______________________________________________________

    You must mean me agreeing with and quoting David Speers.

    Their very well be more in it if you drill down into all the numbers for a State by-election and compare them to the last Federal election which sounds very very tricky, but I will need to hear it from the likes of Green or our very own moderator.

  5. Good on Mic Holland, seemingly not a spinner. That said, as a candidate, he has a distinct advantage given he dispenses pills & would see many. I recall a doc in Nerang some years ago who stood for election & was duly elected for one term, but who was more interested in his advancement than his patients. I’ll tell you, you couldn’t get word in with doctor Mc…?

  6. For me, the interesting thing for the Greens in Willoughby is that their primary vote didn’t increase when Labor did not run a candidate. I kniw there are caveats (more indie’s, full vote not counted etc), but it suggests to me that fewer Labor voters are happy with the Greens than most would expect.

  7. Steely
    Despite your love for David Speers, he has no more insight into what happened tonight and into the future than what you, I, or any other pollbludger has on tonight’s events.

  8. Been there,
    Totally agree with your comment.
    Domicron’s performance had a whiff of desperation and hubris.
    Had to look twice- couldn’t believe it- displaying the picture of the child was appalling taste , to put it mildly.

  9. Thanks for the supportive comments. A par for the course performance by the PB results facility this evening: screwy until about 7pm, successfully held together with gaffa tape thereafter. A bit more challenging than usual here due to bastard optional preferential voting.

  10. Hard to argue with that, NathanA.

    Greens strategists will be pulling their hair out wrt the Teals, as they could take a chunk of G first prefs, and Labor could peel off a very large proportion of 2nd prefs from them.

  11. Been Theresays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 10:32 pm
    Steely
    Despite your love for David Speers, he has no more insight into what happened tonight and into the future than what you, I, or any other pollbludger has on tonight’s events.

    ____________________________________________________
    🙂 But you just asked me to respond the “any other pollbludger”

    As for Speers yeah he would know more than you or I.

    When journalists cop it from both right and left usually means they are just doing their job.

  12. Federal implications – Morrison’s hopes of winning Gilmore and Eden Monaro look very dim now, I’ll back Fiona Phillips and Kristy McBain to be reelected in May. No Coalition candidate yet for Eden Monaro either, Morrison apparently asked Erin Molan to run and she said no.
    The result in Willoughby should worry Dave Sharma, Trent Zimmerman and Jason Falinski, all facing high profile and well financed independents.
    Reid will be a toss up, I think.

  13. RE: Perrotet saying it was a great night for the Liberals….does he think that fools anybody? Voters have given him a whack, wouldn’t it be better to say he has heard them and will do better?
    Or does saying black is white cut it these days?

  14. Steelydan @ #263 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 9:40 pm

    Been Theresays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 10:32 pm
    Steely
    Despite your love for David Speers, he has no more insight into what happened tonight and into the future than what you, I, or any other pollbludger has on tonight’s events.

    ____________________________________________________
    🙂 But you just asked me to respond the “any other pollbludger”

    As for Speers yeah he would know more than you or I.

    When journalists cop it from both right and left usually means they are just doing their job.

    It could also mean they are not very good at their job. This is indeed the case with Speers

  15. Evan
    If there are federal implications, I agree that the govt’s hopes of winning Gilmore and Eden-Monaro would not be boosted by tonight’s results. But Labot would be less optimistic about their prospects in Reid.

  16. Barnaby was ambushed by Speers tonight, he had no idea he was going to be questioned by him, it looked as though Speers had gone and once the ABC reporter was interviewing Barnaby she reintroduced Speers. I wonder if they had planed it before tonight or it just fell into place for them.

  17. Quasarsays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 10:35 pm

    “displaying the picture of the child was appalling taste , to put it mildly.”

    It was obvious towards the end that someone told the camera to move away from the angle that covered the photo.

    I thought involving the picture was bad taste.

    Why would you turn an election night into a memorial?

    What if all candidates decided to do it?

    Many people have a tragedy in their lives but have the good taste not to try use it to their advantage.

  18. Is the result in Bega a portent for other regional areas? Lack of services etc finally starting to bite?

    Monaro is a bit different because of its proximity to Canberra but Bega strikes me of many regional electorates without good access to city based services. Perhaps the Nationals and rural Liberals should be getting worried.

  19. Steely

    If Barnaby, as Deputy PM, can’t handle unexpected questions when on the piss celebrating a disastrous night for the LNP then maybe he is not the right person for the job!

  20. That’s a complementary tactic, NathanA, and one I can see Albanese already pursuing by dead-batting most culture wars/id politics issues that pop up. Out and out fighting with the Greens – I’m not sure that helps, but sticking to different positions and not being concerned by the left flank is a useful position to be in.

    Interesting times

  21. Been There @ #272 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 9:49 pm

    Quasarsays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 10:35 pm

    “displaying the picture of the child was appalling taste , to put it mildly.”

    It was obvious towards the end that someone told the camera to move away from the angle that covered the photo.

    I thought involving the picture was bad taste.

    Why would you turn an election night into a memorial?

    What if all candidates decided to do it?

    Many people have a tragedy in their lives but have the good taste not to try use it to their advantage.

    Didn’t Morrison go to the memorial service?

    Also Duttons Chinese scare was probably at least partly timed to strip a few votes from a Labor candidate with an obviously Chinese name.

    Pretty good result for Labor in the circumstances

  22. It would have been good to see at least some of the postals start to be counted tonight, just to get a hint at the effect of Covid. If it’s no different than normal, or if it’s that people who are most scared of Covid are voting by post and which way they trend, or if it’s mostly elderly people voting by post and if they’re as conservative as normal, or how Covid has changed their vote etc. I suspect Antony Green is probably right and already factoring in postal trends from the other post-Covid state elections, but a week is a bit long to wait for the counting to start.

    Good signs in any case for Labor and teal independents. The Liberals weren’t getting the swing towards them that they’re wanting in NSW to offset losses in other states. And when the main issue the election will be fought on will be the same federally as it has been in these states by-elections (Covid management) and the two governments have very similar policies on that issue, this isn’t a good sign for Morrison.

  23. NathanA says:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 10:31 pm

    For me, the interesting thing for the Greens in Willoughby is that their primary vote didn’t increase when Labor did not run a candidate. I kniw there are caveats (more indie’s, full vote not counted etc), but it suggests to me that fewer Labor voters are happy with the Greens than most would expect.

    This is no surprise to some of us. The Greens are manifestly a Labor-hostile jalopy. Labor-preferring voters are not lightly going to indulge the Greens.

  24. Sue @ #279 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 9:55 pm

    It would have been good to see at least some of the postals start to be counted tonight, just to get a hint at the effect of Covid. If it’s no different than normal, or if it’s that people who are most scared of Covid are voting by post and which way they trend, or if it’s mostly elderly people voting by post and if they’re as conservative as normal, or how Covid has changed their vote etc. I suspect Antony Green is probably right and already factoring in postal trends from the other post-Covid state elections, but a week is a bit long to wait for the counting to start.

    Good signs in any case for Labor and teal independents. The Liberals weren’t getting the swing towards them that they’re wanting in NSW to offset losses in other states. And when the main issue the election will be fought on will be the same federally as it has been in these states by-elections (Covid management) and the two governments have very similar policies on that issue, this isn’t a good sign for Morrison.

    They have to get a complete list of everyone who voted prepoll and on the day so they can ensure none of those people also did a postal vote.

  25. Good points ajm

    “Didn’t Morrison go to the memorial service?

    Also Duttons Chinese scare was probably at least partly timed to strip a few votes from a Labor candidate with an obviously Chinese name.

    Pretty good result for Labor in the circumstances”

  26. Been Theresays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 10:53 pm
    Steely

    If Barnaby, as Deputy PM, can’t handle unexpected questions when on the piss celebrating a disastrous night for the LNP then maybe he is not the right person for the job!

    _______________________________________________________

    The question was why he had called the PM a liar. Fair enough Q.
    My point was that he was ambushed and it looked rather sneaky.
    When you pick on people it does the opposite to the desired affect, if you hate the guy you get off on it if you like him you get upset but the average punter might think he was treated very badly.

  27. Dandy Murraysays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 11:02 pm
    Chortle, no, not intentionally.
    ______________________________________________________
    I reckon he makes bugger all but still looks good in a pair of jeans.

  28. shellbellsays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 10:56 pm

    I highly doubt it,

    two seats are now Labors.
    big swing against another for nat.
    another swing against.

  29. Shellbell

    “Other than Upper Hunter, it would be the best byelection night for a NSW government for a very long time.”

    Satire?

    So swings to other parties in every seat and the loss of one is the best bye election night for a NSW Government for a very long time?

  30. “ The question was why he had called the PM a liar. Fair enough Q.
    My point was that he was ambushed and it looked rather sneaky.”

    Especially after the triumph of his dastardly ‘cunning plan’ last weekend to dodge Speersy asking that very question on the Insiders: David should have respected that ninja move and definitely not followed up. It’s a privacy issue: when the Deputy PM is on the piss at a public function, he’s off limits. Also off limits when he’s fucking his media advisor … or rorting the books to make up a job in the Whip’s office so his illicit lover has a cover story to travel everywhere with him … Off limits OK! Until Sharri Markson decides otherwise. That’s the only exception!

  31. It is interesting that the one seat with the lesser swing against the government was the Nationals held seat. I guess the NSW Nationals brand is able to differentiate itself form the Liberal Party.

  32. William Bowe:

    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 10:37 pm

    [‘Thanks for the supportive comments. A par for the course performance by the PB results facility this evening: screwy until about 7pm, successfully held together with gaffa tape thereafter. A bit more challenging than usual here due to bastard optional preferential voting.’]

    You’re a hard taskmaster, bearing in mind some here are mortal.

  33. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 11:10 pm
    “ The question was why he had called the PM a liar. Fair enough Q.
    My point was that he was ambushed and it looked rather sneaky.”

    Especially after the triumph of his dastardly ‘cunning plan’ last weekend to dodge Speersy asking that very question on the Insiders: David should have respected that ninja move and definitely not followed up. It’s a privacy issue: when the Deputy PM is on the piss at a public function, he’s off limits. Also off limits when he’s fucking his media advisor … or rorting the books to make up a job in the Whip’s office so his illicit lover has a cover story to travel everywhere with him … Off limits OK! Until Sharri Markson decides otherwise. That’s the only exception!

    _______________________________________________________

    1. There was no cunning plan he just refused to go as he new he was in for a torrid time.
    2. Speers did get his man in the end, I was stating that he ambushed Barnaby and it was not a good look.
    3. I think journalism went to far with Barnaby on that one, he had an affair, how is that our business. Nothing is off limits now and a persons private life should be. It set the bar far to high and will catch out as many Labor politicians and it will Liberal.
    4. Don’t know anything about the job….not just an affair it was his illicit lover no less. Oh la la.
    5. Goodnight Earlwood you cranky old prick.

  34. Hoy! Steely !

    Before you go to bed.

    You missed the rorting the books bit, I mean if you’re going to address the rest then don’t miss that.

  35. Steely, I also have problems with revealing details of a MP’s private life, but Joyce is a special case.

    In the past he has made a point of emphasing his catholic and conservative family values while secretly breaking every family values rule in the book. He is a drunk, not very bright, a rorter, and an insult to the parliament.

    He deserves everything he gets.

  36. Addressing the Liberal faithful at Strathfield Golf Club on Saturday night, Mr Perrottet paraphrased one of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s favourite sayings: “How great is Bridget Sakr?” he said, referring to the party’s candidate in Strathfield.

    Sending a signal that the Liberals still hope to win Strathfield at next year’s federal election, Mr Perrottet downplayed the party’s failure to pick up the seat, which was vacated when former Labor leader Jodi McKay resigned.

    “Make no mistake today, Labor has gone backwards in Strathfield,” Mr Perrottet said.

    Makes me puke.

  37. [‘Body blow for NSW government as Liberals will lose seat to Labor after holding it for 33 YEARS and Gladys Berejiklian’s ultra-safe electorate suffers a huge swing..’]

    While it’s true to say that by-elections aren’t usually indicative, that they rarely change governments – a protest vote – they can also point to the premise that there’s “Something is rotten in the state of Denmark” – perhaps reading federally?

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