First up, two privately conducted uComms seat polls to relate courtesy of the Australia Institute (you may care to note here the disclosure statement at the bottom of my sidebar, which is particularly relevant to the seats in question), both providing bad news for the Liberals and good news for the independent rebellion they face:
• In North Sydney, the poll shows Liberal member Trent Zimmerman trailing independent Kylea Tink 59-41 and Labor 58-42, suggesting he would lose to whichever of the two finished ahead at the second last count. When results for the two primary vote questions are combined as appropriate, the second being a forced-response follow-up for the initially undecided, Zimmerman is on 35.5%, Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw is on 23.1%, Tink is on 21.3%, and the Greens are on 11.3%.
• In Wentworth, Liberal member Dave Sharma likewise trails independent Allegra Spender by 56-44 and a to-be-determined Labor candidate by 55-45. In this case the primary votes are 37.6% for Sharma, 28.5% for Spender, 19.2% for Labor and 8.0% for the Greens.
The two automated phone polls were conducted on January 24, with samples of 850 in North Sydney and 853 in Wentworth. More detail, including responses on various questions relating to the ABC, is available through the Australia Institute link above. I would add the caution that seat polls do not have a particularly stellar record, perhaps especially so for the kind of inner metropolitan seat under consideration here.
On top of that and everything else, there is all too much news to relate about the New South Wales Liberal Party’s extraordinarily fraught federal preselection process. Its state executive met on Friday to consider a factional peace deal that would have concluded long-delayed preselections for a number of important seats, the catch being that party membership ballots would be bypassed in a number of cases. However, signing off on this required the support of fully 24 out of the executive’s 27 members, and reports indicate it didn’t come close. This raises the spectre of intervention by the federal branch, which in turn would be assured of triggering legal action.
• The stickiest sticking point would seem to be the southern Sydney seat of Hughes, which the Liberals need to wrest back from Craig Kelly after his move to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. The factional deal would have handed the preselection to PwC Australia management consultant Alex Dore, much to the displeasure of local branch members given he lives in Manly, was earlier weighing up a run in Warringah, and hadn’t even bothered to nominate. Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald also reports that Scott Morrison is less than enthusiastic about Dore, as he favoured the claim of state Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons. This was vehemently opposed by Dominic Perrottet and others who did not care for the prospect of a by-election in marginal Holsworthy, since the state government is already in minority and fears losing the Bega by-election on February 12. However, Koziol’s report suggests the by-election might happen anyway should Gibbons register her displeasure by resigning from parliament. Anne Davies of The Guardian reported last week that some in the party were of the view that Alex Dore for Hughes was so clearly a deal-breaker that it was no more than a ploy to bring on a federal intervention.
• The deal would have spared Sussan Ley a challenge from Christian Ellis, a public relations specialist who has made a name locally campaigning for water rights, in her regional seat of Farrer. Liberal branches in the electorate have reportedly been targeted by a conservative recruitment drive, putting Ley in grave peril despite her status as the Morrison government’s Environment Minister.
• Another incumbent who would have been spared a challenge is Alex Hawke in Mitchell, which is telling since Hawke’s machinations as the leading powerbroker of the centre right faction, and thus a key element of Scott Morrison’s power base, have been widely blamed for the endlessly protracted preselection process. Hawke would reportedly struggle to hold off Michael Abrahams, an army colonel with strong backing among conservatives.
• Another factional powerbroker, moderate Trent Zimmerman, would be rubber-stamped in North Sydney, where he faces challenges from Hamish Stitt and Jessica Collins, respectively aligned with the hard right and the centre right. However, Anne Davies of The Guardian suggests their prospects in a membership ballot would be less strong than those of Ley’s and Hawke’s challengers.
• The deal would have installed the preferred candidate of Scott Morrison, Pentecostal preacher Jemima Gleason, on the Central Coast seat of Dobell, where the Liberals have been hopeful of reeling in Labor’s 1.5% margin. However, Anne Davies of The Guardian reports that Gleason has now withdrawn, and that “another potential candidate – a well-known cricketer – has also cooled on the idea”. Presumably this refers to Nathan Bracken, as per reports last year. This just leaves conservative-aligned Michael Feneley, a cardiologist at St Vincent’s Hospital who has twice run unsuccessfully in the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith.
• Reports last week indicated the deal would also secure top position on the Coalition Senate ticket for Marise Payne, but it appears Friday’s state executive meeting decided otherwise, since Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reported on Monday that a process had commenced that would have both winnable Senate positions determined by the usual process involving party branch delegates. Patrick reports the moderate-aligned Payne is “probably safe”, which is just as well given her status as Foreign Minister. With the second position reserved to the Nationals, that leaves number three as a battle between Connie Fierravanti-Wells and Jim Molan. Three incumbents are chasing two seats as a legacy of Nationals Senator Fiona Nash’s Section 44 disqualification in 2017, which left the Liberals with all three of the six-year terms the Coalition won at the 2016 double dissolution. Fierravanti-Wells was elevated from a three-year to a six-year term and Molan, who had initially been unsuccessful at the election, took over her three-year term. Molan was reduced to the unwinnable fourth position in 2019, but was back later in the year when he filled Arthur Sinodinos’s vacancy in a six-year term. Liberal sources cited by Anne Davies of The Guardian suggest Molan’s popularity with the party membership makes him the likely winner.
• Then there were the three seats that were uncontentiously to proceed to a party ballot under the factional deal. Even here there is bad news for the Liberals, with the announcement by moderate-aligned barrister Jane Buncle, the presumed front-runner to take on Zali Steggall in Warringah, that she was withdrawing her nomination. That just leaves conservative-aligned Lincoln Parker, who according to Jim O’Rourke of the Daily Telegraph has “worked in defence research and technology development” and at consulates in the United States. He has also contributed columns to the Epoch Times, the newspaper of China’s suppressed Falun Gong movement, the enthusiasm of which for Donald Trump extended to passing off his tales about voter fraud as fact. As James Campbell noted in the Daily Telegraph, the heat had gone out of the Warringah preselection contest due to a growing sense that victory was beyond the party’s grasp. The other two seats designated for party ballots under the deal are Bennelong and Labor-held Parramatta, on which I have nothing new to relate.
Vote for Joyce and get Morrison.
That’s just nasty.
Re Cat at 2.46 pm
Probably not. Look at the second graph posted by Simon Katich at 3.31 pm yesterday, at:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/02/02/situation-normal/comment-page-17/#comments
There has been no increase in the infection fatality ratio in the UK since Omicron spread there.
This is consistent with the Japanese data, showing it has been the huge increase in Omicron cases there in recent weeks that is now leading to high daily Covid death figures as bad as the Delta wave.
But why are you asking that particular question? When a wildfire approaches you don’t try to assess if it is fully as bad as the previous one, you use your previous experience to preserve life and property from the challenge that currently exists.
The other point, made by Dr Glassman in a paper linked last week (which you would need a thermos or two to get through but see the summary) is that it is still too soon to know how bad Omicron may be.
See: https://dglassman.medium.com/omicron-was-never-mild-2b130568d7fa
Wilkie would back a Labor Government on just about everything. He isn’t a RWNJ.
Talking about Tasmanians the Tassie CYBORG Abetz is on afternoon briefing speaking about the “extend and detail in relation to……in that regard”. Shoved down to third on the Liberal ticket for the senate in 2022 “in relation to” getting screwed by his coffee boy for a higher spot. Too funny.
Most of the so called Teals candidates seem to be united on the need for an integrity commission with teeth, legislation on meaningful action on the environment and policies to address mistreatment of women.
Under Morrison none of those are likely.
So good luck to any of them explaining if it comes to them supporting him after the election.
And it’s just topped 40C in Perth for the umpteenth time this summer.
The Morrison Government is reminiscent of the dying days of the McMahon Government. And it’s of interest to note that Whitlam won by nine seats, though there were only 125 seats in the Reps in ’72. Labor by 10 seats.
“There’s a bit of gossip going around at the moment – tell me about text messages” ……
says the Australian Prime Minister whilst intimately touching a young woman in a hairdressing salon.
Not terribly subtle work by his PR crew – you can imagine the brainstorming last night. Yesterday Morrison called the text messages “gossip” so what better place to continue the theme than at the hairdressers cos like you know that’s all women do right?
Just maybe none of these blokes thought the PM manhandling a young woman (who looked pretty uncomfortable throughout and who possibly had little agency to refuse to take part) would look to many downright creepy.
This stunt perfectly illustrates why women are increasingly sick and tired of being viewed as props and appendages by this man. SICK.
Tony Abbott did the Tea Party:
and who could forget the Billy Cart Race:
Rossmcgsays:
Friday, February 4, 2022 at 4:21 pm
Most of the so called Teals candidates seem to be united on the need for an integrity commission with teeth, legislation on meaningful action on the environment and policies to address mistreatment of women.
Under Morrison none of those are likely.
So good luck to any of them explaining if it comes to them supporting him after the election.
—
That is why Scomo announced today that Alan Tudge will not be returning to the front bench next week. The inquiry he ordered into allegations of abuse etc against Tudge from the woman he cheated on the Mrs with was due for finalisation last Friday. Scomo says they are still “working through the process”. He does not want women’s issues in Parliament to be the first questions he faces next Tuesday in question time. Bloody coward.
“And it’s just topped 40C in Perth for the umpteenth time this summer.”
40 is the new 30, welcome to climate catastrophe sir, have a great day.
‘WeWantPaul says:
Friday, February 4, 2022 at 3:47 pm
The teals can’t survive if they back an ALP minority govt, i believe they will not if it comes to that, the best they could do is remove morrion and ensure dutton can’t be pm.
Bottom line a vote for anyone but Labor or Greens is likely to support the LNP.’
——————————
It is no that complicated. If you want a government to clean up the mess, vote 1 Labor.
If you want a Tower of Babel, start finessing now.
‘Kate says:
Friday, February 4, 2022 at 4:23 pm
“There’s a bit of gossip going around at the moment – tell me about text messages” ……
says the Australian Prime Minister whilst intimately touching a young woman in a hairdressing salon.
Not terribly subtle work by his PR crew – you can imagine the brainstorming last night. Yesterday Morrison called the text messages “gossip” so what better place to continue the theme than at the hairdressers cos like you know that’s all women do right?
Just maybe none of these blokes thought the PM manhandling a young woman (who looked pretty uncomfortable throughout and who possibly had little agency to refuse to take part) would look to many downright creepy.
This stunt perfectly illustrates why women are increasingly sick and tired of being viewed as props and appendages by this man. SICK.’
———————————
On a limited sample, Morrison in this stunt says, ‘Gossip’ and observers think, or say, ‘Creep’.
Elmar-Fudd
Thats Alan Tudge not Dan Tehan.
Cocos gets trolled after Morrison’s latest stunt:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10475517/Scott-Morrison-washes-apprentices-hair-Cocos-salan-Melbourne.html
WWP
Got my electricity bill the other day. Somebody is doing well out of the heatwave. Big jump on same period last year.
Elmer_Fudd at 4:29 pm
I agree Morrison is a bloody coward. ( The MP in question is Tudge, not Tehan.)
“t is no that complicated. If you want a government to clean up the mess, vote 1 Labor.
If you want a Tower of Babel, start finessing now.”
I did not say and would not say an ALP govt with greens would be good, but the only ones who think there is any chance they’d support a minority lib Govt, is them every single election. I think it is both dishonest and politically stupid when every election they try to play up a possible lnp-green govt, but it is a constant.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Friday, February 4, 2022 at 4:33 pm
Elmar-Fudd
That is Alan Tudge not Dan Tehan.
Oopsies. Fixed it, thanks
Obviously the 60/40 split on the women’s vote in the polls has convinced Morrison that he has to be one of the girls. He’ll be whatever woman they want him to be. But, atm his performance is just missing coming over as the cute but gay boy friend/co habitator that we see in all those television series.
worst tea party eva.
“WWP
Got my electricity bill the other day. Somebody is doing well out of the heatwave. Big jump on same period last year.”
Same here, it was horrendous, something like 300% of prior bill, and significantly higher than same period last year, I kicked myself for not updating / expanding the solar panels and maybe getting a battery.
Tudge?
Morrison may wish to scrape that barnacle off before the NPC duo hit town next week.
Nath
Its no Boston tea party and there is no Boston bun.
It’s passing strange that Morgan has not published that poll that they announced yesterday as yet. Morgan also published a tweener poll in December that they did not publicise. They have some strange habits.
As expected, Coco’s apprentice drew the short straw.
Lesson here is be careful on choice of background colour .. avoid chromakey bombing..
https://twitter.com/soozuk/status/1489302056796135428?s=10
Elmer_Fudd nothing would make me happier than Abetz disappearing into the ether
His media advisors are either Lynton Crosby, or an employee/associate of Lynton Crosby, probably with a few News Corp contacts thrown in.
We are seeing the same pattern here as with the UK and American leadership: stunts, show business and outright, bare-faced lying, with an appeal to the under-educated bogan/red-neck element who have been convinced that the elites who are crushing them are actually their salvation.
It never ends well.
I really liked that quip earlier on asking when Morrison is going to try his hand at extracting teeth, or root canal therapy. Albanese should use it, then get serious and suggest that Morrison tries emptying bed pans, or gbathing old ladies and old gentlemen as an alternative. He could even wash their hair. Or perhaps do a shift in an ICU ward. Even a hour would ruin him for life, I suspect.
Instead of stunts, and attending the cricket, and the millions of this and the billions of that bragging, the government should be acting responsibly and taking this bloody pandemic seriously.
WWP
If I recall correctly last summer I might still have been benefitting from McGowan’s pre-election energy subsidy. It was the big increase in usage that struck me.
As a senior living alone with modest power requirements I couldn’t make the solar savings work for me.
A former colleague has just spent $13k on a Rolls-Royce setup with battery and all. He’s older than me and accepts the system will probably take a long time to reach break even point.
But his wife is a very committed Green and a well paid academic. Spent a heap on a hybrid car as well.
Great to have principles when you can afford it.
Been out and about today, so missed any fun but I guess SfM has been out too
Trending in Australia
Oh FFS
2,752 Tweets
‘Sceptic says:
Friday, February 4, 2022 at 4:44 pm
Lesson here is be careful on choice of background colour .. avoid chromakey bombing.
….’
———————————
Hugely funny.
I’m staying away from Aus politics today, and came across this piece in the NYT on Putin’s goals in Europe. Some here have commented on Putin, so this may be interesting.
Europe Thinks Putin Is Planning Something Even Worse Than War
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/opinion/putin-russia-ukraine-europe.html
Summarising: Ivan Krastev describes the European view, which is that Putin’s goal isn’t war but to destabilise Europe. A full scale war would have the effect of uniting Europe but creating uncertainty will create fractures that can be exploited later. And since the US isn’t acting as if it agrees with that view there’s a fracture in NATO already.
But then the author spoils it by ending with this.
I think he has his proverb backwards. It’s Russia who invited Europe to dance. I suspect Macron has figured it out and is trying to wake the European bear. Biden may also be alert to this but unable to say it out loud. Too soon to know. Meanwhile Macron’s and Biden’s problem is that the Germans have gotten used to peace. But should Europe wake up Putin may discover he’s got a tiger by the tail. (Sorry.)
We’ve seen the before.
Here’s the after!
This SBS report of the shark jumping stunt by Morrison, has some better footage of the surrounds of the salon, who was there, what The Liar said – and how he justified it later, when a reporter suggested his behaviour was an insult to people.
https://twitter.com/cjjosh/status/1489480583806087169?s=21
Late Riser at 4:58 pm
His main point seems to be castigating the Europeans and even the Ukrainians themselves for having a realistic view of the situation rather than them all chanting ‘All the way with LBJ” .
“Great to have principles when you can afford it.”
Indeed!
First Dog
What sort of things should the Prime Minister know?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/04/what-sort-of-things-should-the-prime-minister-know
with a reference to The Ballad Of Lucy Jordan (Marianne Faithfull; one the very great live performances, Enmore, Newtown, circa some time ago)
https://youtu.be/u1CgCNXHJyU
Steve Colbert just nails the faith thing.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKuwJ-ZagAIPVCb?format=jpg&name=360×360
Kleptomaniac New Zealand parrot steals GoPro, films airborne escape
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/04/kleptomaniac-new-zealand-parrot-steals-gopro-films-airborne-escape
poroti ,
Sure, there’s a bit of that.
“The many decades of peace in Western Europe, combined with the continent’s deep dependence on Russia’s oil and gas, incline officials to assume aggressive Russian moves must be a ruse.”
“Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, last week played down the immediate threat of war, suggesting the situation was “dangerous, but ambiguous.” For a country menaced by 130,000 Russian troops at its border, it’s a striking assessment.”
But he turns it around.
“not because they have a more benign view of Mr. Putin than their American counterparts. On the contrary, it’s because they see him as more malicious.”
“By hardening the conflict, Mr. Putin could cohere his opponents. Holding back, by contrast, could have the opposite effect: The policy of maximum pressure, short of an invasion, may end up dividing and paralyzing NATO.”
He’s annoyed with the peaceful Germans though.
ItzaDream @ #1486 Friday, February 4th, 2022 – 4:20 pm
Can we call that a battle hymn?
Ch10 News is damning for Morrison – Aged Care the highlight whilst ScoMo stunts away. And they insert Albo 20 seconds of comment 3 times to talk about health crisis and disunity in the Government ranks.
The reporter? PVO.
“Ch10 News is damning for Morrison ”
They’ve picked sides.
“Ch10 News is damning for Morrison – Aged Care the highlight whilst ScoMo stunts away. And they insert Albo 20 seconds of comment 3 times to talk about health crisis and disunity in the Government ranks.
The reporter? PVO.”
His usual Govt is bad but pox on both houses writing style, isn’t well suited to a quick visual news piece. I would almost like to see it, well no of course, but nearly.
Boerwar says:
Friday, February 4, 2022 at 4:30 pm
‘WeWantPaul says:
Friday, February 4, 2022 at 3:47 pm
The teals can’t survive if they back an ALP minority govt, i believe they will not if it comes to that, the best they could do is remove morrion and ensure dutton can’t be pm.
Bottom line a vote for anyone but Labor or Greens is likely to support the LNP.’
——————————
It is no that complicated. If you want a government to clean up the mess, vote 1 Labor.
If you want a Tower of Babel, start finessing now.
—————————–
You people seem to completely misunderstand what’s driving the TEALs & their supporters
They are all standing in electorates in which ‘Hell will Freeze Over’ before they vote in an ALP candidate. Accordingly, the most intelligent means of rejecting the incumbents is a TEAL vote. All TEAL’s have the same three pronged policy – climate, ICAC & women. Get those three up and it matters not one jot to these electorates if they then sit in Parliament for a decade, job done!
Moreover, if they sit in Parliament for a decade doing nothing beyond procuring those three core achievements, they deny the LNP the key seats that they, the LNP, will require to retake government. Job done again.
With up to 10 seats looking in play for TEALs, this could emasculate the LNP much more than any of your postulations about Green preferences or ALP wins in swing seats.
Gosh that cunning hair wash plan of Bullshit Man to stop everyone talking about ‘Horriblehorriblemangate’ has worked like a charm. 😉
All the stunts that Sco Mo is pulling reminds of the time a Labor Minister said when the Coalition were doing the same game yonks ago
—–” That all we have on the other side of the house is Cunning Stunts ” —–
CO,
The long term danger is also to the Greens. The Teals will peal off their vote as ex-Lib voters find an alternative to their traditional LNP preferences.
The Greens have always been a stunt filled bunch of rat bags that deliver nothing but are always threatening Labor.
The Teals will be true Independents voting on issues that they have declared. They’ll revert to their roots once their key concerns are addressed.
I note that the Chair and CEO of Qantas Group seem to find operating a business in a pandemic challenging.
Really?
Especially in WA, supposedly it is easier in the PRNK, hmmm.
Probably good you don’t do healthcare, especially of the public kind.
It used to be Poms whining on the Flying Kangaroo, it seems now it is the executive leadership team, whether the engines are running or not?
Given the amount of JobKeeper that went their way, I am looking forward to the shareholding minister of transport (which should allow more international carriers picking up passengers on key routes)/ finance, akin to Nbnco, having an updated statement of expectations ready.
In the meantime, surely said services business can do with a bit of a shake up, given people of all ranks have joined other work forces.
But it seems Qantas Group HQ is good at charming pollyTICs, forget their people, customers/ guests or shareholders, then again they are the second oldest still operating airline in the world, and look it (though rumours about A350s and A220s aren’t …)!
Nothing new but for international travel well, fortunately there’s plenty of choice, and domestically well there’s Virgin, Rex …
CO
The statement was that the Teals cannot support Labor.
Indeed, some of them (Steggall) have gone to the lengths of stating that they wouldn’t support Labor in a hung Parliament.
As you observe, they (by and large – there are Teals standing in Labor seats) are putting their hats in the ring for seats Labor is unlikely ever to win – so seats which, by their very nature, are Labor-phobic.
As the Gillard government shows, it ends badly for conservative independents who support Labor governments.
A Teal who supports a Labor government is not likely to be in Parliament after three years, let alone sitting there for a decade.
A Teal who supports a Morrison led government might be beguiled into thinking they can move things on climate change, women and an ICAC, but what will happen is that they’ll be promised these and yet they won’t happen. (Morrison, after all, would claim he is acting in all these fields).
The Teals are very naive about politics (and don’t @ me: I live in Indi and most of my friends are Haines supporters….). They haven’t been tested yet, and the media is busily boosting them, so the cracks don’t show, but they’re there.
‘Casual Observer says:
Friday, February 4, 2022 at 5:34 pm
Boerwar says:
Friday, February 4, 2022 at 4:30 pm
‘WeWantPaul says:
Friday, February 4, 2022 at 3:47 pm
The teals can’t survive if they back an ALP minority govt, i believe they will not if it comes to that, the best they could do is remove morrion and ensure dutton can’t be pm.
Bottom line a vote for anyone but Labor or Greens is likely to support the LNP.’
——————————
It is no that complicated. If you want a government to clean up the mess, vote 1 Labor.
If you want a Tower of Babel, start finessing now.
—————————–
You people seem to completely misunderstand what’s driving the TEALs & their supporters’
================================================
Meh. They are Liberals in sheep’s clothing. They want a better deal for women, an ICAC and some action on climate change. They do not want the sort of massive wealth re-distribution that would generate the economic basis for equity for women.