Situation normal

Accumulating bad news for the federal Coalition includes the results of two new seat polls and the state of the Liberal preselection process in New South Wales.

First up, two privately conducted uComms seat polls to relate courtesy of the Australia Institute (you may care to note here the disclosure statement at the bottom of my sidebar, which is particularly relevant to the seats in question), both providing bad news for the Liberals and good news for the independent rebellion they face:

• In North Sydney, the poll shows Liberal member Trent Zimmerman trailing independent Kylea Tink 59-41 and Labor 58-42, suggesting he would lose to whichever of the two finished ahead at the second last count. When results for the two primary vote questions are combined as appropriate, the second being a forced-response follow-up for the initially undecided, Zimmerman is on 35.5%, Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw is on 23.1%, Tink is on 21.3%, and the Greens are on 11.3%.

• In Wentworth, Liberal member Dave Sharma likewise trails independent Allegra Spender by 56-44 and a to-be-determined Labor candidate by 55-45. In this case the primary votes are 37.6% for Sharma, 28.5% for Spender, 19.2% for Labor and 8.0% for the Greens.

The two automated phone polls were conducted on January 24, with samples of 850 in North Sydney and 853 in Wentworth. More detail, including responses on various questions relating to the ABC, is available through the Australia Institute link above. I would add the caution that seat polls do not have a particularly stellar record, perhaps especially so for the kind of inner metropolitan seat under consideration here.

On top of that and everything else, there is all too much news to relate about the New South Wales Liberal Party’s extraordinarily fraught federal preselection process. Its state executive met on Friday to consider a factional peace deal that would have concluded long-delayed preselections for a number of important seats, the catch being that party membership ballots would be bypassed in a number of cases. However, signing off on this required the support of fully 24 out of the executive’s 27 members, and reports indicate it didn’t come close. This raises the spectre of intervention by the federal branch, which in turn would be assured of triggering legal action.

• The stickiest sticking point would seem to be the southern Sydney seat of Hughes, which the Liberals need to wrest back from Craig Kelly after his move to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. The factional deal would have handed the preselection to PwC Australia management consultant Alex Dore, much to the displeasure of local branch members given he lives in Manly, was earlier weighing up a run in Warringah, and hadn’t even bothered to nominate. Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald also reports that Scott Morrison is less than enthusiastic about Dore, as he favoured the claim of state Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons. This was vehemently opposed by Dominic Perrottet and others who did not care for the prospect of a by-election in marginal Holsworthy, since the state government is already in minority and fears losing the Bega by-election on February 12. However, Koziol’s report suggests the by-election might happen anyway should Gibbons register her displeasure by resigning from parliament. Anne Davies of The Guardian reported last week that some in the party were of the view that Alex Dore for Hughes was so clearly a deal-breaker that it was no more than a ploy to bring on a federal intervention.

• The deal would have spared Sussan Ley a challenge from Christian Ellis, a public relations specialist who has made a name locally campaigning for water rights, in her regional seat of Farrer. Liberal branches in the electorate have reportedly been targeted by a conservative recruitment drive, putting Ley in grave peril despite her status as the Morrison government’s Environment Minister.

• Another incumbent who would have been spared a challenge is Alex Hawke in Mitchell, which is telling since Hawke’s machinations as the leading powerbroker of the centre right faction, and thus a key element of Scott Morrison’s power base, have been widely blamed for the endlessly protracted preselection process. Hawke would reportedly struggle to hold off Michael Abrahams, an army colonel with strong backing among conservatives.

• Another factional powerbroker, moderate Trent Zimmerman, would be rubber-stamped in North Sydney, where he faces challenges from Hamish Stitt and Jessica Collins, respectively aligned with the hard right and the centre right. However, Anne Davies of The Guardian suggests their prospects in a membership ballot would be less strong than those of Ley’s and Hawke’s challengers.

• The deal would have installed the preferred candidate of Scott Morrison, Pentecostal preacher Jemima Gleason, on the Central Coast seat of Dobell, where the Liberals have been hopeful of reeling in Labor’s 1.5% margin. However, Anne Davies of The Guardian reports that Gleason has now withdrawn, and that “another potential candidate – a well-known cricketer – has also cooled on the idea”. Presumably this refers to Nathan Bracken, as per reports last year. This just leaves conservative-aligned Michael Feneley, a cardiologist at St Vincent’s Hospital who has twice run unsuccessfully in the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith.

• Reports last week indicated the deal would also secure top position on the Coalition Senate ticket for Marise Payne, but it appears Friday’s state executive meeting decided otherwise, since Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reported on Monday that a process had commenced that would have both winnable Senate positions determined by the usual process involving party branch delegates. Patrick reports the moderate-aligned Payne is “probably safe”, which is just as well given her status as Foreign Minister. With the second position reserved to the Nationals, that leaves number three as a battle between Connie Fierravanti-Wells and Jim Molan. Three incumbents are chasing two seats as a legacy of Nationals Senator Fiona Nash’s Section 44 disqualification in 2017, which left the Liberals with all three of the six-year terms the Coalition won at the 2016 double dissolution. Fierravanti-Wells was elevated from a three-year to a six-year term and Molan, who had initially been unsuccessful at the election, took over her three-year term. Molan was reduced to the unwinnable fourth position in 2019, but was back later in the year when he filled Arthur Sinodinos’s vacancy in a six-year term. Liberal sources cited by Anne Davies of The Guardian suggest Molan’s popularity with the party membership makes him the likely winner.

• Then there were the three seats that were uncontentiously to proceed to a party ballot under the factional deal. Even here there is bad news for the Liberals, with the announcement by moderate-aligned barrister Jane Buncle, the presumed front-runner to take on Zali Steggall in Warringah, that she was withdrawing her nomination. That just leaves conservative-aligned Lincoln Parker, who according to Jim O’Rourke of the Daily Telegraph has “worked in defence research and technology development” and at consulates in the United States. He has also contributed columns to the Epoch Times, the newspaper of China’s suppressed Falun Gong movement, the enthusiasm of which for Donald Trump extended to passing off his tales about voter fraud as fact. As James Campbell noted in the Daily Telegraph, the heat had gone out of the Warringah preselection contest due to a growing sense that victory was beyond the party’s grasp. The other two seats designated for party ballots under the deal are Bennelong and Labor-held Parramatta, on which I have nothing new to relate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,308 comments on “Situation normal”

Comments Page 29 of 47
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  1. “Nah, the reason behind AFR editorial preachings is to get ALP policies in open so that they can scare shit out of Australians like 2019.”

    They got the PM they wanted last time through lies and greed, of course they want to repeat, they work for and represent the worst humanity, the kind of human who is happy to help create a huge pile of dead Western Australians, to add to the huge total of deaths they demanded in the plague states, so they can sell a few airplane tickets.

  2. From Dawn Patrol

    Problems in Victoria’s hospital system emerged long before the pandemic struck, writes Josh Gordon who says Andrews needs to acknowledge these failures.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/andrews-government-must-acknowledge-failures-in-state-health-system-20220203-p59tfq.html


    A Sydney anaesthetist says thousands are suffering while waiting for surgery because the NSW government failed to prepare the healthcare system for the latest COVID surge. He says so-called elective surgery isn’t elective, it’s essential.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/elective-surgery-isn-t-elective-it-s-essential-20220202-p59t2v.html

    Opening up during Omicron spread is coming home with devastating effect.

  3. Re Cat at 9.23 am and Zerlo at 9.32 am

    On 12 January Dr Chant said Omicron was 90% of new cases and 67% in ICU. That proportion has been rising steadily since.

    For the latest NSW Health weekly summary, published 1 Feb for week ending 15 Jan, see table 4 p 5 at:

    https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/covid-19-surveillance-report-20220201.pdf

    In the week to 15 Jan only 7 out of 285 ICU cases sequenced were Delta; the previous week it was 25 out of 293. There was a steady drop in the proportion of Delta cases in the last two weeks of 2021.

    Omicron is certainly deadly for some people. This is evident now in Japan, where deaths from Covid daily are now exceeding the levels reached in the previous Delta outbreak in August to October, after which they had dropped to almost none in December. This is because Omicron is more infectious. See:

    https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/japan/

    Omicron is not mild. For those aged 60 + it is still 2 times more deadly overall than a NZ seasonal flu.

    See the graphs in posts by Simon Katich at 3.19 and 3.31 pm yesterday, at:

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/02/02/situation-normal/comment-page-17/#comments

    Yesterday the per capita death rate from Covid in Australia (154 per million) exceeded Japan (151).

  4. WeWantPaul at 2:24 pm
    The feral Leprechaun’s deep concern is about his very fat salary + bonuses.
    .
    2019
    CEO bonuses soar as Qantas boss Alan Joyce tops list … –
    16 Sept 2019 — 1.Alan Joyce, Qantas Airways ($23,876,351)
    .
    2021
    Qantas’ Joyce takes home $1.9m

    17 Sept 2021 — Qantas boss Alan Joyce will wait for at least a year to decide whether he will accept $3.7 million worth of performance bonuses

  5. Ven @ #1401 Friday, February 4th, 2022 – 2:29 pm

    From Dawn Patrol

    Problems in Victoria’s hospital system emerged long before the pandemic struck, writes Josh Gordon who says Andrews needs to acknowledge these failures.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/andrews-government-must-acknowledge-failures-in-state-health-system-20220203-p59tfq.html


    A Sydney anaesthetist says thousands are suffering while waiting for surgery because the NSW government failed to prepare the healthcare system for the latest COVID surge. He says so-called elective surgery isn’t elective, it’s essential.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/elective-surgery-isn-t-elective-it-s-essential-20220202-p59t2v.html

    Opening up during Omicron spread is coming home with devastating effect.

    From the Guardian blog today.
    Victoria’s health minister, Martin Foley, has just announced a $1.4bn funding package for the state’s health system to help cope with the impact of Covid-19.

    Foley said:

    What this package recognises is that there is pressure right across our system. There is 24/7 pressure on our people who are those frontline health care paramedics, nurses and physicians, allied health professionals, pathology teams, our cooks, our executives. The entire public health system is under pressure day in, day out.

    Foley also announced a plan to resume all elective surgeries. From Monday 7 February private hospitals and day procedure centres will be able to resume day surgery at up to 50% of normal levels.

    He said two years into the pandemic, with hospitalisations beginning to decline, it was critical to allow the health system to continue.


  6. Puff, the Magic Dragon says:
    Friday, February 4, 2022 at 1:43 pm

    freaking hell, I just watched Morrison’s latest bilious stunt, washing a woman’s hair in a salon.
    ..

    My wife’s response was “Creepy”.

  7. “The feral Leprechaun’s deep concern is about his very fat salary + bonuses.”

    And he is happy to facilitate the death of your loved ones if it improves his coming bonuses.

    Deathcult.

  8. Thank you, Dr Doolittle for taking the time to answer my questions. 🙂

    So, taking into account what you have said, would I be right to conclude that, if you do end up in hospital with the Omicron Variant, that it is proving to be more deadly than Delta?

  9. Schools hospitals public transport are all in a pretty bad situation. It is almost like the States struggle to get money while the Feds waste billions on all sorts of stupidity and corruption.

  10. Its understandable why business wants to return to normal but one of the great failings of the Morrison government has been that it has not given business a plan back to normal.

  11. Strange times …

    On Feb 1st we get this, ‘Highest Labour % in a poll for 4 years (March 2018)’

    Westminster Voting Intention
    LAB: 44% (+4) [NB +12 on GE 2019]
    CON: 33% (+1) [NB -11 on GE 2019]
    LDM: 9% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (-1)
    GRN: 3% (-1)
    Via @SavantaComRes
    , 28-30 Jan.
    Changes w/ 21-23 Jan.
    _________________________________________________________
    3rd Feb we get two truly awful Labour performances in local council by-elections …

    City of Manchester, Ancoats & Beswick ward

    LDM: 53.2% (+31.0)
    LAB: 37.9% (-20.6)
    GRN: 5.7% (-5.3)
    CON: 3.2% (-5.2)
    Lib Dem GAIN from Labour
    Changes w/ 2021

    City of Leicester, Evington ward

    LAB: 38.8% (-15.4)
    CON: 34.4% (+12.9)
    LDM: 20.7% (+12.5)
    GRN: 5.0% (-7.1)
    FBM: 1.1% (+1.1)
    Labour HOLD
    No SA (-2.9) as previous.
    Changes w/ 2019

    Previous local by-elections have been, in the main, pretty ordinary for Labour lately

  12. OK, I read Kevin Bonham’s article on ‘recent’ polling…

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/01/poll-roundup-sea-of-red-polling-ink-at.html#comment-form

    …and did some totally amateurish calculations. KB argues that the govt’s current (dire) polling position will improve by election day, by up to 3%.

    Bludgertrack has the Coalition 2PP at 44.2%. Let’s shift that to 47.2% (maximum likely improvement under KB’s assumptions.) So, instead of an average national swing of 7.3% to Labor, its 4.3%. In other words, ‘tightening’ in the lead-up to the election may reduce the swing to ALP by about 40% of the current weighted-averaged swing.

    But, the swing to ALP since last election will vary (sometimes wildly) from state to state, as Bludgertrack shows:
    NSW 3.9%
    Vic 1.6
    Qld 7.5
    WA 9.7
    SA 2.7

    If we discount these swings by 40%, we get:
    NSW 2.3
    Vic 1.0
    Qld 4.5
    WA 5.8
    SA 1.6

    In terms of seats changing hands, on average, this suggests no change in NSW, ALP gains Chisholm plus the new seat (Hawke) in Vic, a seat in Tas, two or three in Qld, two to four in WA and one in SA.

    ALP makes net gains of between 8 and 11 seats for a total of 76 to 79 seats.

    None of this takes into account possible gains by Teals.

    Am I barking up anything like the right tree here?

  13. Josh Butler @JoshButler

    update on the anti-vax camp in Canberra: protesters got mad at a towing company they thought was involved in taking their cars away

    turns out they’ve been ringing up abusing a different towing company in Ballarat, which wasn’t involved at all

    also a not-insignificant number of them are spreading a rumour that someone heard from someone who heard that Scott Morrison “may resign at 5pm at his press conference”

    (Morrison is giving a press conference now, but I don’t think he’s resigning)

  14. “Its understandable why business wants to return to normal”

    Um if there was a path back to monopoly profits that didn’t kill people, even a difficult or expensive path, yeah sure.

    But the whole ‘we don’t care who or how many die they must be sacrificed for the super profits of the very few’ is intellectually and morally worse than human sacrifice to appease imaginary gods for the good of the while tribe because that stupidity is actually for the whole tribe.

  15. The Daily Tellsmecrap front page…


    Gets my Nelson Muntz today. Domicron granted the wishes of the ‘business community’ and…..

  16. Snappy Tom
    That would be the best case for the government but the potential danger for the government is that their position worsens before it gets any better and its possible that it could blow out and we saw that in Victoria where the polling had only a small swing towards the Andrews government.

  17. Morrison and Dutton appear to be at sixes & sevens over ADF support in the aged care sector:

    [‘PM: Army not a ‘shadow workforce’ for aged care.

    This morning reporter Rachel Clun told us that Defence Minister Peter Dutton said the government will bring defence force personnel into aged care facilities to help if needed as the Omicron outbreak continues to devastate residents and their families.

    But the Prime Minister, speaking in Melbourne, said while he had asked the Minister for Defence and Minister for Health Greg Hunt to work together on plans to support the aged care sector, and some defence force personnel had already been deployed, the army was not a “shadow workforce”.

    “They have already been deployed. They have been deployed here to support general health duties in the ambulance service. We have Australian public servants working the 000 centres down here in Victoria and providing that support where it is needed,” Mr Morrison said. “The defence forces are not a shadow workforce for the aged care sector. We have some 60,000 members in our defence force, half of those are in the reserves.

    “To the extent that they work in the health sector, they are already working in the health sector. Simply taking reserves out of where they are working on putting a uniform on them and getting them somewhere else, doesn’t change anything.”

    Speaking on Nine’s Today show earlier this morning, Mr Dutton said so far the government has already helped the sector with 78,000 additional shifts, but the Commonwealth would do more.

    “There’s no limit on what we’re prepared to invest here to make a bad situation … better,” he said.

    When asked if he would bring more staff from the Australian Defence Force in, Mr Dutton said it was being considered.’] SMH

  18. “Gets my Nelson Muntz today. Domicron granted the wishes of the ‘business community’ and…..”

    The whole ‘we know now you can work from home but you must risk your death and the death of your loved ones by coming into the CBD’ is perhaps the most extreme of the deathcults ‘we don’t care who or how many die’ evil.

  19. C@tmomma:

    Friday, February 4, 2022 at 3:11 pm

    [‘Well, it’s obvious Dutton and Morrison aren’t talking. ‘]

    It does seem that way. Dutton may be weighing his options.

  20. I have it on good authority that before Morrison went near the hair washing stunt he asked around for some advice from previous star Coalition performers.

    Which is why he ended up using kero for the rinse.

  21. @Snappy – William pointed out his state swings aren’t lining up with the National numbers in BT.

    So – probably best to not use those figures yet.

    On the bigger issue of polling trajectory. You’re on the safer side of history if you assume a tightening, but my own view is sometimes the tide just goes out.

  22. Between court cases the SAS are at a loose end.
    Deploy them to bathe elderly dementia patients at $21 an hour.
    Heaps of savings and a social good.

  23. John Hewson

    @JohnRHewson
    ·
    2h
    Noticing Dutton raising his profile alarmingly on back of Cabinet leak of text comments on Morrison wonder if some fool is thinking of changing the jockey when the horse is just as crook

  24. Mike Carlton
    @MikeCarlton01
    Dutton “revealed” on @abc730
    last night that the “government” had plans to use the army to turn people away from hospitals. Barely makes news this morning, but I find that astounding and deeply troubling. Fascism not far below the surface with this corrupt, deceitful rabble.

  25. Snappy Tomsays:
    Friday, February 4, 2022 at 2:56 pm
    In terms of seats changing hands, on average, this suggests no change in NSW, ALP gains Chisholm plus the new seat (Hawke) in Vic, a seat in Tas, two or three in Qld, two to four in WA and one in SA.
    ALP makes net gains of between 8 and 11 seats for a total of 76 to 79 seats.
    Am I barking up anything like the right tree here?

    I have some scepticism about Bonham’s assumption that the polls will tighten up 3 points before the election and I haven’t checked your maths but at this point in time I would have thought a 76-79 Labor result would be pretty solid guesstimate of what’s coming in this election.

    I wouldn’t write of NSW entirely and two each from QLD and WA is probably the best Labor can get this time around. Shorten tried to win an election. Albo is watching Scomo lose an election while Albo reminds us of why Scomo should lose. Elections are lost, not won in Australia.

  26. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, February 4, 2022 at 2:46 pm
    Thank you, Dr Doolittle for taking the time to answer my questions.

    So, taking into account what you have said, would I be right to conclude that, if you do end up in hospital with the Omicron Variant, that it is proving to be more deadly than Delta?

    No you cant. Not at all. Wrong. Simply we have such high numbers of people with Omicron (including the old0 that the amount of deaths is higher. Omicron has a rate of 0.1 % and obviously higher depending on the age cohort. If we had these sort of numbers with Delta…scary.

  27. ‘Elmer_Fudd says:
    Friday, February 4, 2022 at 3:35 pm

    Snappy Tomsays:
    Friday, February 4, 2022 at 2:56 pm
    In terms of seats changing hands, on average, this suggests no change in NSW, ALP gains Chisholm plus the new seat (Hawke) in Vic, a seat in Tas, two or three in Qld, two to four in WA and one in SA.
    ALP makes net gains of between 8 and 11 seats for a total of 76 to 79 seats.
    Am I barking up anything like the right tree here?

    I have some scepticism about Bonham’s assumption that the polls will tighten up before the election and I haven’t checked your maths but at this point in time I would have thought a 76-79 Labor result would be pretty solid guesstimate of what’s coming in this election. I wouldn’t write of NSW entirely and two each from QLD and WA is probably the best Labor can get this time around.’
    ————————————
    You are both guessing wildly. You are both ignoring the available data so to do. But do carry on.

  28. “Fascism not far below the surface with this corrupt, deceitful rabble.”

    It isn’t just beneath the surface a lot is out in the open and normalised, like much of the deathcults obbession with profits, opps they call it ‘normality’ and they are happy to kill granny and anyone else to get it.

  29. The teals can’t survive if they back an ALP minority govt, i believe they will not if it comes to that, the best they could do is remove morrion and ensure dutton can’t be pm.

    Bottom line a vote for anyone but Labor or Greens is likely to support the LNP.

  30. WeWantPaul says:
    Friday, February 4, 2022 at 3:47 pm
    The teals can’t survive if they back an ALP minority govt, i believe they will not if it comes to that, the best they could do is remove morrion and ensure dutton can’t be pm.

    Bottom line a vote for anyone but Labor or Greens is likely to support the LNP.

    The Greens will not support Labor unless Labor submits to their extortion. This won’t happen. In any case, the Greens do not have the muscle in the House. They can threaten to use their Senate numbers to disable a Labor government – to do a reprise of every reactionary-led, Labor-hostile Senate since 1973.

  31. [‘An elite soldier has told the Federal Court that he witnessed an Australian soldier shoot an Afghan man who had a prosthetic leg at close range with a distinctive machine gun that he later saw in the possession of war veteran Ben Roberts-Smith.

    Person 14, a serving Special Air Service soldier who cannot be identified for national security reasons, gave evidence in Sydney on Friday in Mr Roberts-Smith’s long-running defamation action against The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Canberra Times.

    The SAS soldier said he was involved in a mission with his patrol on Easter Sunday, 2009, which involved clearing buildings in a compound known as Whiskey 108.

    He said he witnessed three Australian soldiers outside the compound who appeared to be from two different patrols with “a black object which was … similar to a human”. The object was “thrown to the ground” with a thud, he said, before a soldier raised a machine gun known as an F89 Para Minimi and “fired, like, an extended burst”.

    “That person turned and walked away out of sight back into Whiskey 108,” Person 14 said.

    Ben Roberts-Smith denies murdering Afghan prisoner, encouraging second execution. He said he could not recognise who fired the gun, but they were carrying the “distinctive” Para Minimi weapon that was “not carried by many [soldiers], sometimes not at all”.

    He said that typically “at least one to two” of the light weapons were carried in a troop.

    “From my angle … it wasn’t favourable conditions to identify [the soldiers] … given that we all dress similar and wear similar items. However, the things that did stand out was the Minimi and the choice of campaint [camouflage paint],” he said.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/weapon-linked-roberts-smith-to-afghan-killing-sas-soldier-tells-court-20220204-p59tsv.html

  32. Morrison didn’t mean to say crisis. He said it accidentally and then covered it over to make it look intentional. It was a slip up, not a concession.

    You can tell by the clipped manner in which he said it that he tried to stop himself, but realised it was too late.

  33. Morrison’s hairdressing was in Mt Eliza a normally safe Liberal part of Dunkley. Whenever Morrison comes to Melbourne he only seems to visit areas that are normally safe Liberal.

  34. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, February 4, 2022 at 3:37 pm

    You are both guessing wildly. You are both ignoring the available data so to do. But do carry on.

    Yes the available data suggests a Ruddslide but I am being conservative in my crystal ball gazing. I got egg on my face like most on PB in 2019 (including you if memory serves). I don’t want to do that again.

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