Morgan: 56-44 to Labor

A second pollster emerges to suggest the summer break has done little to improve the situation for the Morrison government.

Roy Morgan has become the second pollster to emerge from the summer break, maintaining its recent form in crediting Labor with a 56-44 two-party lead, out from 55.5-44.5 in the previous poll. As before, this is souped up by a much stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences than Labor managed at the 2019 election. Both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote, at 34.5% and 37% respectively, with the Greens up half a point to 12% (strong support for the Greens being another feature of the Morgan series). One Nation is down a point to 3% and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is steady on all of half of a point, whereas it managed 3.4% in 2019.

The “previous poll” used for the basis of comparison here wasn’t actually published at the time, as noted by a keen-eyed observer on Twitter. Morgan’s last published poll from last year was from the last weekend in November and the first weekend in December, whereas the results tables on the website include a further result for the two weeks subsequently.

The state two-party breakdowns credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in New South Wales, a swing of around 10%; 59-41 in Victoria, a swing of around 6%; 51-49 in Western Australia, a swing of around 6.5%; 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, a swing of around 10%; and 60.5-39.5 in Tasmania, a swing of around 4.5%. However, the poll has the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, which is still a swing to Labor of around 7%. Whereas Morgan’s past polling combined results from two weekends, here we are told that polling was conducted between January 4 and 16.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,089 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Labor”

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  3. When I was a teenager we had a border collie/blue heeler/kelpie cross. Now that dog was active and it was the 6th member of the family expecting to eat what we ate and then wanted its own food. She ruled the house.

  4. Victoria @ #1731 Tuesday, January 25th, 2022 – 8:22 am

    Clive palmer is flooding the airwaves again.
    Obviously expecting an election in the near future.

    You know the interesting thing about Palmer is that, like the Republicans in the US and increasingly the Coalition here, he doesn’t have any policies to run on, he runs on feels instead. Causing Dopamine to flood the brains of voters.

  5. Morning all. Happy birthday Cat. I’d like to give you a new government but you’ll have to settle for Scomo still being in hiding after bad polls.

  8. Speaking of Clive, I had the misfortune of seeing his ads (paused at the opening frame, not playing, thankfully) on YouTube last night when opening a video in an incognito window, where my ad blocker does not work. I switched back to my non-incognito window.

  10. kezza2:

    I use AdBlock on Chrome. It’s free, and works perfectly for me. Probably others available for different browsers.

    Yes, I’ve got Adblock Plus installed on Firefox.

    I don’t know how anyone could watch YouTube without an ad blocker.

  15. Itza – 2 black and tan Kelpies here, one 14 the other 3 1/2 and I largely share your k9 philosophy. I was born on farm and the working dogs, Kelpie and Border Collies, were also pets to degree. It’s easy to appreciate just how intelligent Kelpies tend to be, as well a super loyal dogs.

  22. ABC reporting 14,836 new cases and 20 deaths for Victoria – There are 1,057 people in hospital with the virus — 119 in ICU, 45 ventilated.

    29 deaths and 18,512 new cases in NSW – There are 2,943 people in hospitals, 183 in ICU

  23. Muster Dogs was v.enjoyable, although the narration felt a bit dumb at times. Great dogs, interesting people; although I think it would be more interesting if they used different training methods rather than just varyingly successful applications of a single person’s methods.

    We have a black and tan mostly kelpie. Got her from the RSPCA when she was about 1, having been picked up as a stray (= dumped by some arsehole). She’s about 5 now, still a very anxious little thing, but as sharp as a razor. Knows the name of every toy she has (dozens), remembers every person’s name and sometimes you’d think the dog understands English as a native language.

    First few years were a struggle though – for example it took two years of serious work to get her to walk on a lead properly. IMO the physical exercise isn’t the most important thing here, it’s the mental stimulation, and in a domestic environment that mostly comes from interacting with people. There’s a lot of nonsense talked about how kelpies don’t do well in suburbia; while it would be very difficult to take a working kelpie and get it to adapt to a suburban environment, an untrained dog is really not much different from any other breed. Smarter but.

  25. BK

    Thanks for the roundup. I strongly agree with your writeup of the following item. Operation “open up to Covid” has been a disaster. Why do it? This is why.

    “ As visa changes are likely to continue the influx of migrants, the Government is prioritising low-skill work that doesn’t guarantee the rights of migrant workers, writes Dr Abul Rizvi.”
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/visa-changes-target-low-skill-employment-with-few-work-protections,15972

  26. yabba @ Tuesday, January 25, 2022 at 8:59 am

    I agree. As an educator, I was impressed at the explanatory prose as well as the expertise. I suppose electrophysiologists know a thing or two about waveforms 😉

  27. Autocrat, “Muster Dogs was v.enjoyable, although the narration felt a bit dumb at time”

    My partner put it on, and noticed I it was narrated by Lisa Millar. Terribly unnatural speaking voice. I doubt she’d get a job in media, if it wasn’t for her political connection. She made it excruciating to listen to, so I didn’t last long.

  28. autocrat @ #2023 Tuesday, January 25th, 2022 – 9:04 am

    Muster Dogs was v.enjoyable, although the narration felt a bit dumb at times. Great dogs, interesting people; although I think it would be more interesting if they used different training methods rather than just varyingly successful applications of a single person’s methods.

    First few years were a struggle though – for example it took two years of serious work to get her to walk on a lead properly. IMO the physical exercise isn’t the most important thing here, it’s the mental stimulation, and in a domestic environment that mostly comes from interacting with people. There’s a lot of nonsense talked about how kelpies don’t do well in suburbia; while it would be very difficult to take a working kelpie and get it to adapt to a suburban environment, an untrained dog is really not much different from any other breed. Smarter but.

    I had a blue heeler x border collie in a suburban environment. Obedience became her ‘job’ which a working dog needs. As we got her from AWL as a young pup, she never knew another life. She was a monster dog at times in the early years but settled to a really good dog, although erratic around other dogs.
    I put a first level obedience title on her and was trialling for a 2nd level one when I realised that we had both had enough of it. It can be done but not for inexperienced owners or the faint hearted.

  30. Thank you for that post Griff, most illuminating. I did notice at a glance the increased lag in the datasets but have had no time to think about it more than in the abstract. I worry that a popular myth about the relative effects of the omicron variant and vaccination on disease severity has likely already developed.

  33. The West Australian surprises me today by seeming to back off on McGowan after a harder line over the weekend.
    There’s a report on the war of words over who did or didnt do what on RAT purchases and discussion of the close close contact rules to apply in the mining industry.
    Another report looks at McGowans request to avoid having to go to Sydney for his court case with Palmer.
    Those who wade past the seemingly endless Harvey Norman ads to page 57 will find an opinion piece from the Federal AMA president telling us why the border should be open, a view at odds with the WA branch I believe.
    On mining, my son flew to a Pilbara site yesterday for a two day visit. He had a PCR test on Sunday, as he is required to do every time he goes away. A colleague travelling with him didn’t bother. He didn’t get on the flight.

  34. “Is unsure, cautious Albanese wily enough to outwit Morrison?”, asks Jack Waterford who will follow through tomorrow to complete his avaluation.

    https://johnmenadue.com/is-unsure-cautious-albanese-wily-enough-to-outwit-morrison/

    This must be the umpteenth article by Jack Waterford on the subject roughly defined as “The Albo Paradox”.

    He can’t seem to get his head around the possibility that a genuine “Ordinary Bloke” (well, as genuine as you can be as a prominent politician) such as Anthony Albanese is poised to defeat Joe The Gadget Man. One sells serious policy. The other sells whatever he’s given to flog off that’s cluttering up the warehouse, surplus product that solves imaginary problems which isn’t “in the shops” because the shops won’t have a bar of it.

    Why being a bullshit artist, replete with cheap stunts, self-serving PR and the fake bonhommie of the carnival barker is a key requirement for being Prime Minister, especially in the eyes of a supposedly discerning observer such as Waterford, I don’t know.

    We had Abbott with his testosterone and his man-rug driving the ladies crazy, and his reinstatement of knighthood sending everybody else spare. Turnbull, who was going to “innovate” the nation out of its antipodean torpor, turned out to be the wettest of fizzas, too weakened by his hubris driven climb to the summit to complete a safe journey back to base camp.

    And now Morrison: a man so pathetically, transparently bogus that you find yourself cringing with embarrassment every time he opens his mouth to spruik another demented brainfart of the day, dressed up as the miracle we all needed, but just didn’t realise it.

    Morrison’s ambition – if we are to take him at his literal word – is to lead a government that is dedicated to not governing. He’s certainly gone out of his way to demonstrate that particular path, whether it be to solve the problem of Climate Change by doing nothing, or to cure a pandemic by supplying no vaccines or test kits, abandoning those in aged care for whom he has a Constitutional responsibility, or “securing” (and bragging about it) RAT tests that never arrive and may not exist. He uses taxpayer money to bribe marginal electorates by promising to build car parks, rebuild bushfire-ravaged towns, and construct a world class submarine fleet. The carparks are yet to appear, the Bushfire Fund doesn’t have a bank account, and the submarines won’t be delivered until well after any conflict they were supposed to sail in is concluded. But all are perfect as announcements and re-announcements.

    And yet Waterford is worried about Albo being boring? After the trio of Coalition duds that have been dished up to us as “leaders” this past decade? The political Three Stooges that the confidence men and sleeve-tuggers in PMO along with their handwringing mates like Waterford in the media don’t even bother offering to as “conviction politicians” anymore?

    The simple truth is that lifelong conservatives like Waterford (and we can throw in those other two 9Fax agony aunts, Shaun Carney and Peter Hartcher too) just cannot bring themselves to admit that their default position of sifting through the Liberal Party tailings heap, looking for one last nugget, has finally run its course.

    Albo will make a fine Prime Minister, Jack. “Boring” as you say he is, he has a fine record of Ministerial accomplishment, political leadership and parliamentary performance. He’s not going to play your game of sounding off like a raving banshee, just so you can then tut-tut and cast doubts on his fitness for high office.

    And something else Albo is not: he’s not a phoney Pentecostal flogging last year’s surplus ideology with Howard era clichés, or a wunderkind who was always destined for greatness but picked the wrong party to achieve it with, or a failed priest who never saw the country he was elected to govern as his true homeland.

    Pull yourself out of the funk you’ve gotten yourself into Jack, and join the Real World, the one that is full of “boring” people, doing “boring” jobs that need to be done well and sustainably. Shake off the blinkers. Albo’s coming.

  36. So our beloved PM, who rather than use democratic institutions, you know like the Parliament, wants to use big tech to define and enforce limits on Australian free speech, but also was in breach of those very terms and conditions on WeChat and is trying to shift the blame. And it is working boy our media is bad / stupid.

    And in unsurprising news their ABC has a long story on why summer is hot, and you have to get through a lot of paras and past at least 4 pictures / ads for other stories before climate catastrophe is mentioned, oh and identified as the cause, in the bottom 2 paras. Pathetic.

  38. Not that familiar with WeChat but it seems from that ABC report that Morrison’s account was set up in breach of the platform’s rules.
    And the Liberals are complaining about what has happened?
    Beyond parody.

  40. I, too, found Jack Waterford’s article in Pearls and Irritations the tendentious and tiresome maunderings of someone who has lived their life in the Canberra bubble as an elitist member of it that floats above the, apparent to his eyes, flotsam and jetsam, that he surveys below him, finding long term membership of the Canberra Elitist clique claque qualification enough to pontificate about it and about those who wish to run the country, from the building he probably sees out of the window of his office every day as he composes another tendentious and tiresome tome tirelessly.

    He should get out more.

  43. Griff @ #1728 Tuesday, January 25th, 2022 – 12:48 am

    Steelydan @ Tuesday, January 25, 2022 at 12:38 am

    If you really want to look into it, you may want to compare the proportion privately schooled per country with the proportion of public finding for private schools per country. I’ll even make it easy. You have the first part. Here is the second part:

    https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/ef3a0a68-en.pdf?expires=1643032894&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=54367467CB441F7DA4D1684BC98101BC

    Griff.
    May I add my thanks for posting this excellent summary – and it’s warning. It’s perversely reassuring to find retrospective empirical evidence to support the uneasy feelings that I bleated about (here and elsewhere), like a pre-Xmas Cassandra, regarding the desperately promulgated rosy view of Omicron.
    You are spot on about the electrophysiologists. I did my early training at Westmead in the 80s, when it was dominated by EPS Cardiologists and Haematologists, which was an excellent intellectual milieu to learn the big, messy data handling that was necessary for the HIV epidemic.

  44. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, January 24, 2022 at 10:09 pm
    Albo’s got a photographer too; sneak peek if him working on his speech for the National Press Club tomorrow at 12.30pm..

    Where are the gourmet curries, the spectacular chook sheds, the wonderful barramundi platter? He doesn’t deserve to become prime minister without demonstrating these achievements and more!

  47. Bushfire Bill @ #1796 Tuesday, January 25th, 2022 – 10:00 am

    “Is unsure, cautious Albanese wily enough to outwit Morrison?”, asks Jack Waterford who will follow through tomorrow to complete his avaluation.

    https://johnmenadue.com/is-unsure-cautious-albanese-wily-enough-to-outwit-morrison/

    This must be the umpteenth article by Jack Waterford on the subject roughly defined as “The Albo Paradox”.

    He can’t seem to get his head around the possibility that a genuine “Ordinary Bloke” (well, as genuine as you can be as a prominent politician) such as Anthony Albanese is poised to defeat Joe The Gadget Man. One sells serious policy. The other sells whatever he’s given to flog off that’s cluttering up the warehouse, surplus product that solves imaginary problems which isn’t “in the shops” because the shops won’t have a bar of it.

    Why being a bullshit artist, replete with cheap stunts, self-serving PR and the fake bonhommie of the carnival barker is a key requirement for being Prime Minister, especially in the eyes of a supposedly discerning observer such as Waterford, I don’t know.

    We had Abbott with his testosterone and his man-rug driving the ladies crazy, and his reinstatement of knighthood sending everybody else spare. Turnbull, who was going to “innovate” the nation out of its antipodean torpor, turned out to be the wettest of fizzas, too weakened by his hubris driven climb to the summit to complete a safe journey back to base camp.

    And now Morrison: a man so pathetically, transparently bogus that you find yourself cringing with embarrassment every time he opens his mouth to spruik another demented brainfart of the day, dressed up as the miracle we all needed, but just didn’t realise it.

    Morrison’s ambition – if we are to take him at his literal word – is to lead a government that is dedicated to not governing. He’s certainly gone out of his way to demonstrate that particular path, whether it be to solve the problem of Climate Change by doing nothing, or to cure a pandemic by supplying no vaccines or test kits, abandoning those in aged care for whom he has a Constitutional responsibility, or “securing” (and bragging about it) RAT tests that never arrive and may not exist. He uses taxpayer money to bribe marginal electorates by promising to build car parks, rebuild bushfire-ravaged towns, and construct a world class submarine fleet. The carparks are yet to appear, the Bushfire Fund doesn’t have a bank account, and the submarines won’t be delivered until well after any conflict they were supposed to sail in is concluded. But all are perfect as announcements and re-announcements.

    And yet Waterford is worried about Albo being boring? After the trio of Coalition duds that have been dished up to us as “leaders” this past decade? The political Three Stooges that the confidence men and sleeve-tuggers in PMO along with their handwringing mates like Waterford in the media don’t even bother offering to as “conviction politicians” anymore?

    The simple truth is that lifelong conservatives like Waterford (and we can throw in those other two 9Fax agony aunts, Shaun Carney and Peter Hartcher too) just cannot bring themselves to admit that their default position of sifting through the Liberal Party tailings heap, looking for one last nugget, has finally run its course.

    Albo will make a fine Prime Minister, Jack. “Boring” as you say he is, he has a fine record of Ministerial accomplishment, political leadership and parliamentary performance. He’s not going to play your game of sounding off like a raving banshee, just so you can then tut-tut and cast doubts on his fitness for high office.

    And something else Albo is not: he’s not a phoney Pentecostal flogging last year’s surplus ideology with Howard era clichés, or a wunderkind who was always destined for greatness but picked the wrong party to achieve it with, or a failed priest who never saw the country he was elected to govern as his true homeland.

    Pull yourself out of the funk you’ve gotten yourself into Jack, and join the Real World, the one that is full of “boring” people, doing “boring” jobs that need to be done well and sustainably. Shake off the blinkers. Albo’s coming.

    +1

  49. What’s the big deal about We Chat ?

    We Chat is used by political parties to connect with voters in marginal seats in Australia with a high Chinese voter presence, in Chinese language.

    “There are a million We Chat users in Australia and many of them are Chinese who use We Chat to get information, including the political discourse” {ABC NEWS).

    Because you have to be Chinese to have an account on this site , Morrison got a Chinese man to create an account under the name Mr Ji so he could send his propaganda to Chinese voters in Chinese language.

    In November last a Chinese businessman man bought Morrisons We Chat account, culled every message Scomo had on the account, renamed it “Australian-Chinese New Life” and promised to “provide tips to new arrivals from China.”

    “Huang Aipeng, the chief executive of Fuzhou 985 Information Technology, which now controls the account, told the ABC that he bought the account in November last year from its original owner, a Chinese national from Fuzhou who is registered only as Mr Ji.” (ABC NEWS).

    Morrison wrote to the parent company of We Chat and demanded his account be reinstated after it was sold in November. The company has refused to respond, therefore
    “Several Coalition MPs have vowed to boycott the massive Chinese language messaging app” in protest.(ABC NEWS).

    I am doubtful the Coalition Member for Chisolm in Victoria, Banks in NSW and others with a strong Chinese voter presence will join in the boycott. The Chinese Labor candidate for Chisolm certainly will not.

    Scomo bleating about losing control of a We Chat account he should not have had in the first place is laughable and his RWNJ MPs “boycott” will do them no good.

    In fact it reinforces for some Chinese the Anti-China sentiment Mr. Potatoe head promulgated in his Press Club speech late last year. Own goal.

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