As reported by The Australian, the final Newspoll for the year records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 36%, Labor 38% (steady), Greens 10% (down one) and One Nation 3% (up one). Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 44% approval and 52% disapproval, while Anthony Albanese are respectively up two to 39% and down three to 45%. The report says Morrison is down one on preferred prime minister to 45% and Albanese is down two to 36%. The poll also finds 47% expect Labor to win the election compared with 37% for the Coalition. It was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1518.
zoomster – interesting. That certainly lends credence to the idea that they may well morph into some kind of loose party organisation, even if they deny being one.
P1 writes, rather bizarrely,
I’m not denying anything. Just asking. Abuse back from you in response is not an argument. Not everyone agrees with you. When will you understand that?
Bushfire Bill
Judging by the 2019-2020 summer bushfires, climate change is already causing catastrophes.
I don’t agree with your hypothesis. Climate change is objectively an extinction level threat to humanity, and so it is in our rational self-interest to prevent and/or mitigate it as much as possible.
Bushfire Bill says:
Friday, December 10, 2021 at 6:52 pm
________________________
Not clear what your trying to say here? Other than some form of nihilist nothing really matters including climate change p.o.v
”I’d be taking anything [Campbell] says with a large grain of salt.. he is a good presenter that’s all”
This guy seems to know what he is talking about, his background seems credible. I have no expertise in health but people I know in the hospital system find him credible. But yes, as with anything of the internet, take with a grain of salt.
EDIT: his credibility would improve if he didn’t use the term “Dr”, even if his PhD in nursing education might entitle him to use it in an academic type context.
Well, I haven’t posted for many years, so I thought I’d drop in and say hello.
Seems like the same rivalries continue even after so long 🙂
Hi, all.
I referred to the last ACT election results. 13.5% for the Greens. Despite a sneer from Quoll, that 13.5% is a fact:
https://www.elections.act.gov.au/elections_and_voting/past_act_legislative_assembly_elections/2020-election/2020-election-results
I find it very sad that the kookaburras became adapted to the noise of saws around here in the early days of settlers and respond without fear to the sound of any chainsaw or mower, hoping for grubs. Lyrebirds in the Dandenongs also imitate chainsaws.
Swing Required @ #2653 Friday, December 10th, 2021 – 7:02 pm
Wow there’s a blast from the past!
Hope you’ve been well.
“I wish you’d stop expressing yourself in absolutes.”
***
You’re pretty much arguing that someone standing right in the middle of a highway with a huge truck coming at them at 110km/h shouldn’t move out of the way because a car might, maybe, possibly could come speeding along at 150km/h and hit them first.
Madness. Absolute madness!
JimmyD says:
Friday, December 10, 2021 at 7:01 pm
Bushfire Bill
In fifty years Global Warming will cause a catastrophe.
Judging by the 2019-2020 Summer bushfires, climate change is already causing catastrophes.
I don’t agree with your hypothesis. Climate change is objectively an extinction level threat to humanity, and so it is in our rational self-interest to prevent and/or mitigate it as much as possible.
============================
IMO, that is not obvious at all. Humans are remarkably adaptable and are very likely to be able to survive an additional three degrees. As a species.
That will cause immense disruption and suffering and it will render large numbers of other species extinct. It will probably cause a large population decline.
But distinction of H. sapiens?
Not likely.
Swing Required:
I sometimes take months-long breaks from Poll Bludger only to come back and see the exact some arguments still continuing on from when I left.
Watching Ch10 News..
A senior NSW Liberal member said the Gladys push for Warringah was ‘a hare-brained scheme by Scott Morrison..’
We know Morrison’s Achilles Heel is his judgement. Once again, it is on show..
mikehilliard 6:47 pm
Depends on how you measure it. What you and I may think is close to “rat arsed’ rating would, if you take a ‘Barnaby Drunkoneter Breathalyzer ‘ test , score ‘a bit tipsy’ .
Swing required
Cheers!
‘sprocket_ says:
Friday, December 10, 2021 at 7:07 pm
Watching Ch10 News..
A senior NSW Liberal member said the Gladys push for Warringah was ‘a hare-brained scheme by Scott Morrison..’
We know Morrison’s Achilles Heel is his judgement. Once again, it is on show..’
==================================
What would Liberals know about the IQ of hares?
Seems like the same rivalries continue even after so long
Rudd vs Gillard seems to have died down…
zoomster @ #2646 Friday, December 10th, 2021 – 6:51 pm
*Heresay and feelpinions alert*
The human race will probably survive climate change. Human civilisation as we know it, however, might find it a bit harder.
That all goes out the window in the worst case scenarios, however, which could see the ocean itself evaporating if global heating continues unabated. Nothing will survive that.
Rex
Didn’t know I was pretending otherwise.
If you can find out how the Voices MPs engage their communities in decision making, please post it here, I’d love to be involved.
Hasn’t it been put about that X will run for the SA Senate with Griff as his no. 2 and Patrick will stand as an indi in the lower house seat of Grey where he was born? The local Lib MHR is Rowan, a complete non-entity. Sharkie has a reasonable chance of reelection, but surely she and the 2 blokes would realise they stand a much better chance if X has a prominent position as head of the SA Senate ticket.
c@t and others
Re legalising cannabis/marijuana:
Being something of a libertarian, I am in favour of decriminalising recreational drugs, and on that basis am rather disturbed by the news coming out of NZ re tobacco.
But, having said that, I also think that the good old weed is a pretty undesirable sort of recreational drug and I don’t think people should be encouraged to take it up. I come from a generation/social class where I and all of my friends smoked a great deal of the stuff. I got out well before I turned 30, but I had friends who kept going into middle age, and it was patently clear that they’d stuffed up their brains pretty badly: hampering the operation of their synapses and also losing a lot of their enthusiasm for life and empathy for others (even allowing for the impact of ageing).
I have seen heroin addicts who have kicked the habit make a real go of their lives.. I haven’t observed the same thing with big-time stoners.
Drongo:
Interesting. Do you think Patrick would have a chance in Grey? I know Xenophon Team came close to taking it in 2016.
Pleased to say I’m fighting fit and yes, the same arguments 🙂
Looking forward to some good psepholigical discussion, which I’ll kick off by saying everyone’s wary after 2019.
I’m not, as long as Morrison stays PM, the Government is terminal.
” A senior NSW Liberal member said the Gladys push for Warringah was ‘a hare-brained scheme by Scott Morrison..’”
Gladys to go from boss of the NSW Government to having Scott Morrison, who she’s had a chance to observe at close quarters during Covid, as her boss? Then, possibly in short order, Peter Dutton? Meanwhile, a lucrative career in the private sector beckons. It must have been her easiest career decision ever.
Boerwar
au contraire. human will score ‘distinction’ with ‘Distinction’ .One species screwing a whole planet 😆
Although I do think the anaerobe community have been very keen on giving Cyanobacteria a ‘Distinction’ award. The bustards ruined the whole planet by polluting it with so much poisonous Oxygen.
meher
Steve777s at 7:10 pm
Obama vs Hilary also looks to have died down 😆
Bushfire Bill: your attempt to downplay the significance of global warming is quite disturbing. It’s the most significant issue facing humanity.
Of course there are people who don’t give a stuff about it. That’s no argument against pursuing zero carbon emissions.
Would you believe that there are also people who don’t give much of a stuff about lots of things you personally care about: eg, whether Labor ever wins another Federal election?
Not that I’m suggesting a vote for the Greens. Most of the people in the Greens who cared about the environment are long gone. The dominant group in the party today are unreconstructed Trotskyists or other types of far left nut jobs. They might pay lip service to the issue of climate change, but that’s not really what they are on about. I was (and remain) a big fan of Bob Brown and Christine Milne, but I’ll definitely be putting their successors last on my ballot paper (and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Bob and Christine did the same).
Well, I’m still very wary after 2019, and I’m not even bothering with the betting agencies. Not that I paid much attention to them in any case before the last election. But still.
The govt can still easily be re-elected even with SfM as the Liberal leader. I don’t think the govt is terminal just yet.
Do we have enough statistics to say anything substantial about Omicron?
nath
boom shankar
Having a closer look at Morgan…
“Primary Voting Intention for the ALP now ahead of the L-NP
Primary support for the ALP increased 0.5% points to 36% in early December and is now clearly ahead of the L-NP, down 1% point to 34.5%. Support for the Greens was up 0.5% points to 12.5%.
Support for One Nation was unchanged on 3.5%, support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was at 1% and support for Independents/Others was at 12.5%.
Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in all five mainland States
Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in all five mainland States – with its largest leads in South Australia, Victoria and NSW.
The ALP enjoys a large lead in Victoria on 58.5% (up 0.5% points since late November) compared to the L-NP on 41.5% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 5.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP’s improvement in Victoria comes after large protests against the Andrews Government on a range of issues including new legislation on ‘extraordinary’ powers for the Premier to declare a pandemic, the Andrews’ Government enforcement of vaccine mandates and tough restrictions on Victorians who are choosing to remain unvaccinated against COVID-19.
The ALP has held its lead in NSW over the last two weeks with the ALP now on 55.5% (unchanged since late November) compared to the L-NP on 44.5% (unchanged). This result represents a swing of 7.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
There has been a significant swing to the ALP in Queensland with the party now ahead on a two-party preferred basis on 54.5% (up 3% points since late November) compared to the LNP on 45.5% (down 3% points). This result represents a swing of 12.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The situation in Western Australia has tightened since late November with the ALP on 50.5% (down 3% points) cf. L-NP 49.5% (up 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 6.1% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
In South Australia the ALP is on 64.5% (up 9% points since late November) well ahead of the L-NP on 35.5% (down 9% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 13.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The L-NP leads in Tasmania with the L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%, representing a swing of 7.5% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election.
Asha,
I read somewhere that it was Patrick’s idea for him to take on Rowan in Grey while X uses the UGH Boot legal case to justify his tilt at another SA Senate run as head of the ticket. I also recall Patrick enthusing about his chances. I like the bloke, but I don’t think progressive Patrick and the conservative Griff saw eye to eye, hence Patrick’s departure from CA. However, I’m not from SA, just an interested observer.
Meher actually I do agree with you somewhat. People who get on the Bongs don’t do too well. I might have 6 bong hits a year. Usually at New Years. The rest of the time I am strictly on the blunts.
The quicker you get off bongs and onto joints the better. That way you can still blaze up and converse, cook, or read or whatever…
Boerwar @ #2677 Friday, December 10th, 2021 – 7:21 pm
With reports Pfizer says we may need a 4th booster, I’m wondering when we’ll see it recommended we simply have yearly boosters.
“That all goes out the window in the worst case scenarios, however, which could see the ocean itself evaporating if global heating continues unabated. Nothing will survive that.”
***
That will eventually happen anyway in about 5 billion years when the Sun transitions into a red giant star. It will expand to somewhere around the size of Earth’s orbit, probably engulfing the planet eventually. But before it does Earth will be turned into something pretty similar to Mercury.
Something like this…
That is the worst and eventual scenario for Earth. If humans still exist 5 billion years from now (big if) we will surely have moved by then.
Boerwar 1 at 7:21 pm
Definite answers, not as yet but there is hope as the BoJostanians might well be the ones to give us some answers in the near future. They seem to be getting keen on spreading Omicron and population wise probably make for a better comparison than say South Africa.
Saw my GP today, nice Iranian man who knows his shit.
Asked him about what booster to take – he says the mRNA are the best if you have 2 x AZs like me. The evidence is it gives you the best protection. So am booked in for Pfizer booster on 22/12/2021.
And how long does the booster take to kick in? Given that 14 days was the guideline for the 2nd AZ.
He says the booster benefit is immediate. As you have the antibodies already..
Boerwar,
Perhaps, but there are a few points to consider:
– the thawing of the sub-arctic permafrost that is already occurring will ensure that three degrees of warming could rapidly become four and then five, due to a runaway feedback loop where increasing temperatures trigger events that further increase temperatures, thus locking in temperatures inhospitable to all life except perhaps microbial and bacterial.
– While the phenomenon is currently poorly understood, the oceans currently absorb around a quarter of all global emission each year. However, due to increasing temperatures, increased acidification may be depleting the ability of the oceans to continue absorbing carbon, and they may in fact become a net contributer of carbon into the atmosphere.
– Rising temperatures will shift global forests towards global savannah, with the corresponding increase in atmospheric carbon due to the loss of carbon absorption from plants.
All of this adds up to the point that each degree of warming greatly exacerbates the liklihood of locking in further degrees of warming. This does not bode well for any kind of life. The runaway greenhouse effect is probably not survivable – just look at Venus.
Due to all the knock-on effects in terms of loss of arable land and agricultural output (whether due to sea level-rises or rising aridity), changing patterns of fresh water access, uninhabitable equatorial regions etc etc, people will be driven to a level of climate migration that could cause global systems collapse.
EDITED for clarity
Some Omicron stats here.
I am not sure how useful they are.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/omicron-spreads-to-57-countries-but-too-early-to-tell-if-variant-more-infectious-who-says
The Victorian anti-vaxxers.. err.. vaxxer still going strong I see.
Re Sprocket @7:24.
From those numbers I get Labor 2PP = 36 + 0 + 10 + 1.5 (PHON + UAP) + 6 = 53.5.
56.5% 2PP on a primary of 36% seems a bit of a stretch.
Asha
Indeed. And one has to ask if one really wants to live in Mad Max world.
A very good rear-guard action by England today, at the start of which it looked like it would be all over by Tea, even Lunch. Close tests are always more of a spectacle than whitewashes. Witness the ’60 tied test match at the Gabba – Aus v WI:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_vffcRP8dI
Non-cricket tragics should proceed to the last over.
Lurking around a few dark websites informs me Patrick’s home town was Whyalla. As someone on another blog has suggested, Patrick could resign his Senate seat immediately, X could take his place and they could all surf in X’s slipstream. Easy! That raises a whole lot of interesting constitutional questions about how/when/if you can replace someone who was elected under a party banner, but who has subsequently resigned, with someone from his old party. I can’t see why not. Also, could Marshall do anything slippery by refusing to appoint/elect a Senate replacement for his own grubby political advantage akin with B-P in Queensland in 1974 (the Gair Affair)? Wasn’t there a constitutional change that rectified that perfidy?
JimmyD says:
Indeed. And one has to ask if one really wants to live in Mad Max world.
_______________
Jimmy, My gang and I will protect your small community in exchange for half the food you grow. Deal or no Deal?
‘JimmyD says:
Friday, December 10, 2021 at 7:32 pm
Boerwar,
Perhaps, but there are a few points to consider:
…’
=========================
I accept that human extinction-forcings are known unknowns at this stage.
My view, FWIW, is that humans will set up closed systems if required so to do.
That would probably lead to a loss of 99.9% of the population but humans have been through worse genetic choke points in the past.
https://www.cbc.ca/greathumanodyssey/content/iceage/135k/index.html?platform=hootsuite
All that said, humanity is heading for extinction by way of entropy. What we are discussing is whether we go extinct sooner rather than later. From my POV, once we are extinct no-one is going to be around to fret about it.
Local kids cut the end off our garden hose to make bongs. We have to hide it. The sooner they get onto joints the better.
To the experts here: did any dinosaurs survive? Crocodiles?