Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A boost to Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, but otherwise steady as she goes from the last Newspoll of the year.

As reported by The Australian, the final Newspoll for the year records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 36%, Labor 38% (steady), Greens 10% (down one) and One Nation 3% (up one). Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 44% approval and 52% disapproval, while Anthony Albanese are respectively up two to 39% and down three to 45%. The report says Morrison is down one on preferred prime minister to 45% and Albanese is down two to 36%. The poll also finds 47% expect Labor to win the election compared with 37% for the Coalition. It was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1518.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,886 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. What does it tell you about what our PM really thinks about anti-vaccine conspiracy theorists in his COALition (not just Kelly who is now UAP) that Kelly was appointed to a parliamentary committee looking into social media and online safety.

    The parliamentary inquiry was announced by Scott Morrison last week as part of the government’s ongoing focus on large tech companies. The committee will be chaired by the Liberal MP Lucy Wicks, and report back in February, before the next federal election.

    Maverick MPs and Senators are getting away with this crap because Scomo and Beetroothead will not move on them and disown them. I don’t care if it costs the Coalition votes leaking to UAP and PHON, this is deadly serious misinformation on COVID they are spruiking to gullible people.

  2. “I think Labor is likely to get 2 senators elected in Queensland this time around but the coalition may struggle to return 3 quotas in their own right, leaving it a three way fight between the 3rd LNP candidate (stoker), Pauline (who may end up getting a quota early but also may struggle – depending on the fickleness of her supporter base post pandemic) and whoever the Greens run. Anyway I hoping for the greens to get the last spot (so long as Labor gets two senators lol).”


    Yep that is the likely scenario, Greens (Penny Allman-Payne) vs Stoker vs Hanson for that last spot in QLD. I agree that Labor will likely get two there as well. Would be so good if Pauline misses out. Probably be left in suspense for weeks after the election to know the outcome though, which is always annoying.

  3. “ Tim Storer was excellent. Wish he’d have another crack at it.”

    Agreed. Also surprisingly excellent was Ricky Muir. I wish he got up in 2016 instead of that drunken blowhard Hinch.

  4. The thing about upper house MPs who’ve been elected on tickets with Nick Xenophon is their vote tends to completely collapse once Xenophon’s name is no longer on the ticket. Despite attempts to launch a full-fledged party, it seems that Xenophon’s personal appeal pretty much carried the vote of every team he led. Best of luck to the remnant Senators but I am not holding my breath for either to return.

    Rebekha Sharkie, of course, escaped this fate. As she is a lower house MP, she answers to a single member electorate and therefore gets re-elected more as a local independent than there being a CA support base in her electorate.

  5. EB

    Remember Morrison is the PM of a coalition govt.
    They pride themselves in appealing to different groups of people. They benefit from not being a homogenous group. It is their modus operandi.

  6. It’d be nice to see one of the NXT remnant retain their Senate seat at the expense of a Liberal gain (while Labor/Greens take the other one) but I know that’s not realistically happening.

  7. “Having lived in the ACT when Zed’s career started, I would heartily agree on seeing him kicked out”


    I lived there for part of his time in Territory politics too. He was repeatedly rejected by Canberrans when he was Opposition Leader. Would be great to see him lose that spot. Very big ask though. But if there was anywhere where it could happen, Canberra is the place considering the very strong support for the Greens there.

  8. Also, for completeness: I think Shoebridge will win a senate seat for the Greens in NSW.

    As much as I like the thought of Teal independents winning safe tory seats off the LNP in the lower house, what I’d really like to see a Teal grouping win a lot of 3rd senate seats off the LNP across the country, as it would give a legislative pathway to a Labor Government that doesn’t automatically involve Greens blackmail/extortion and shaming.

  9. Climate change is a second order issue. It is in a subset of issues we face due to the first order issue which is that the global human enterprise is in overshoot and is unsustainable at present levels. Never mind that all significant political parties have as their mantra growth.
    3% growth gives a doubling time of approximately 25 years. There is a 1:1 correspondence with material use and about 0 .95:1 for energy consumption.
    Until we get to grips with this reality there will no solution to global warming.

  10. Boerwar says:
    Friday, December 10, 2021 at 6:15 pm

    The ACT Greens polled 13.5% in the last election.
    Wasn’t that the same number they polled in the Brisbane Local Council election in 1973?

  11. “Also, for completeness: I think Shoebridge will win a senate seat for the Greens in NSW.”


    He will make a seriously good Senator if he does. He’s been an absolute machine in NSW, so much so that we will miss him at a state level if he makes it into the Senate, but it would be well worth it.

  12. Firefox @ #2595 Friday, December 10th, 2021 – 5:30 pm

    It’s unfortunate that the entire plant has been scarred by misinformation and “reefer madness” propaganda. That is changing though.

    The movie Reefer Madness is an amusing watch. And I would totally never recommend consuming any certain legally prohibited substances prior to watching it, it does make the experience more funny… or so I have heard…

  13. The Greens are most obviously so isolated from human being to human being social intercourse that they spend their entire life on this site, never pausing to change hands at 99


    And scary

    They are also most obviously unemployed – and unemployable I would suggest

  14. Victoria @ #2606 Friday, December 10th, 2021 – 6:12 pm


    Remember Morrison is the PM of a coalition govt.
    They pride themselves in appealing to different groups of people. They benefit from not being a homogenous group. It is their modus operandi.

    They’re modus operandi as you put it is to do anything at all to win and retain Government. Never mind the lives that are damaged and ended along the way with COVID misinformation, its just politics right ?

  15. Asha

    I attended the Craig Thomson court hearings.
    Craig Thomson was charged with mis spending $5000 on firewood, cigarettes and travel for his wife at a time when union leadership was paid a stipend coupled with a no limits credit card

    Meanwhile Tony Abbott’s darling, Kathy Jackson, credibly spent more than $1,000,000 of union funds on school fees, home renos, travel. Her partner at that time, Michael Lawler, was on Fair Work commission.

    Time and time again the Magistrate Charlie Rosenszchwag asked why the prosecutor was reading material in the record that everyone had agreed had not occurred. As soon as prosecutor finished Pia Ackerman would skittle out of the court and The Australian would publish Craig Thomson in spa with prostitutes. Most damning evidence was credit card used for prostitutes had incorrect surname and Kathy Jackson had accused former husband of same

    It was easy to rort HSU because it had growing membership

    SDA union was headed by anti abortion & anti gay right wingers who didn’t reflect the interests of most shop assistants

    SDA has a rival union Retail & Fast Food Workers set up by a fellow working at Woolworths while studying Law at Monash. Deferred Law

  16. Zoomster

    The Teal independents have (largely) recognised that to win seats in the Senate they’ll need to be a party. Which is sort of a contradiction.

    Does that mean you think they won’t organise to run for the Senate?

  17. lizzie

    some birds like to feed on the insects in grass.

    For the past few months I have been adopted by a Willie Wagtail. My task is to walk around the lawn and garden to rustle up some snacks for him. A win win relationship 🙂
    My other “job” is to ensure the sprinkler’s arc is set up to sweep across my Lillipilly . Red Wattlebirds and a couple of Honeyeater species like to sit largely hidden among the leaves and reveal themselves when they go berserk as the sprinkler passes over them. They reckon it is the best thing since sliced bread .

    If only the neighbour could get rid of his damn cat. Judging by the occasional clump of feathers the bustard catches the occasional one.

  18. More lies, Remember when Morrison claim the lib/nats governments would not stop or tell people what to do, no more restrictions, lockdowns or border closures

    Restrictions on Australia’s international border extended until February amid Omicron concerns

    This decision will end any chance for the federal liberal/National government

  19. Peter FitzSimons
    · Dec 9
    Alan Jones apparently making some big announcement tomorrow?
    I can’t see how any media organisation would have him on its books and make any money.
    So I guess he will announce some political go?
    Joining the failed pale male whales of Clive Palmer?

  20. mikehilliard at 6:17 pm

    The Brits will riot. Have to be the biggest bunch of piss pots I’ve ever met, other than us that is.

    Damned right. We’re No.1 ! We’re No.1 ! Aussie Aussie Aussie Oi Oi Oi ”

    ‘Risky levels’: Australia is the drunkest country in the world, survey finds
    …………Australians got drunk an average of 27 times a year, almost double the global average.

  21. The “Voices For” are structurally independent for each electorate aren’t they ? Not being a franchise type structure would make running for the senate a pretty impossible task.

  22. Morrison has broken his Australians overseas will be home by Christmas 2 years in a row

    How dumb are those in the federal liberal party to keep this compulsive liar as leader for the 2022 election campaign

  23. “They are also most obviously unemployed – and unemployable I would suggest”


    Self-employed and work from home. Welcome to 2021. Please leave your old fashioned, conservative prejudices back in the past where they belong.

  24. Billie:

    I admit I was not there, and I’m mostly going off of memory and Wikipedia here, but the crimes he was convicted of seem rather more severe than what you are suggesting. I do agree that Kathy Jackson was even worse, but that doesn’t absolve Thomson.

    You certainly won’t find me defending the SDA. I’m well aware of their… problems.

  25. It seems to me that the Voices For groups are becoming something of a hybrid of a party that favours the kinds of individualistic relationship an independent has with their electorate.

    With a community pre-selection model, a clear political agenda, and a consultative style of politics they aren’t really true independents, and with no formal hierarchical relationship/organising across electorates, they aren’t really a party.

    Not sure what to make of them.

  26. FWIW, in fact Greens got 17.7% in senate for ACT in 2019 and Zed was pushed under a quota for the first time ever, 32.4%

    I know facts and all, they’re a problem for some

    You’d think given the fires and climate catastrophes that have unfolded since then very adjacent and within the ACT would have no bearing on the Greens vote, right?

  27. JimmyD

    Living in one of their electorates, it’s clear that a lot of their presentation of themselves is (at best) naive.

    For example, I have no idea how the community in Indi is consulted. Apart from the initial ‘kitchen table’ conversations, prior to their decision to run a candidate, there’s been nothing advertised. When you ring the office with policy suggestions (not me, but I know others who have) they’re not interested.

    I know that the preselection for Helen Haines was very restricted, and many who were present reported that it had clearly already been decided who was going to be the candidate.

    It’s more like a cult than a political operation.

  28. I believe Thommo may have been busted booking ladies of the night on his union credit card. Small dollar amount, high MSM outrage factor.
    Kathy Thompson’s purse stealing was of a much higher order of magnitude, but less juicy.

  29. Firefox writes:

    It’s not my opinion, it’s climate science that is telling us we need to act. We need to stay under 1.5 degrees of warming.

    I wish you’d stop expressing yourself in absolutes.

    Lots of different sciences are telling us lots of different things. Medical Science tells us to prepare for the next pandemic. Materials Science tells us to keep our eyes on graphene. Astronautical Science tells us to go to Mars. Computer Science tells us that quantum computers are the way ahead. Lots of sciences. Lots of things we MUST do.

    It’s YOUR OPINION that what Climate Sciences says about Global Warming is the most important issue. But I suggest again, it’s only your opinion. Others have competing opinions on competing issues.

    P1, I include you in this. I don’t disagree with what the UN says we “must” do to fight Global Warming. What I am questioning is whether it’s the most important issue facing us today, the most important thing we could be doing to improve things. “Things”? All kinds of things. There are plenty of other “things” vying for top spot.

    For example, the 300 metre asteroid “4660 Nereus” passed Earth today by a mere 2.5 million miles. NASA rates it as a “potentially hazardous object”. If it had been closer, or if today’s pass alters it’s orbit so that in a few years it might hit us, then THAT will become the No. 1 issue: how to deflect an object bigger than the Eiffel Tower (and a million times heavier). If we had to mine a million tonnes of coal to make the rocket fuel or other resources necessary to launch countermeasures, would the Greens still be advocating a veto?

    My point is that everything is relative. Everything, at least as regards its importance to the Grand Scheme of things, is a matter of opinion, irrespective of what “The Science” says. In fifty years Global Warming will cause a catastrophe. What if something else, maybe something we don’t even know about today, like a new virus (or a mutated one) will cause a catastrophe in FIVE years? Where are our priorities then?

    RP above puts “Climate Change” as a “second order issue”. He doesn’t mean it’s of no importance. What I believe he’s saying is that homo sapiens has fucked the planet so thoroughly, that it’s hard to know WHERE to start worrying, and WHAT to start worrying about.

    Maybe WE, Humanity, are the issue, and maybe the planet would be better off without us? Beyond immediate family, perhaps – just perhaps – beyond great grandchildren, who are we fighting for, in any kind of absolute sense?

  30. poroti and lizzie, we have a magpie pair that come back every year to take up residence in our garden to raise their young. Thankfully, they tolerate our presence in the garden, especially while we’re weeding and turning up the worms for them to feed on.

  31. Bushfire Bill @ #2648 Friday, December 10th, 2021 – 6:52 pm

    P1, I include you in this. I don’t disagree with what the UN says we “must” do to fight Global Warming. What I am questioning is whether it’s the most important issue facing us today, the most important thing we could be doing to improve things. “Things”? All kinds of things. There are plenty of other “things” vying for top spot.

    Don’t include me in your pathetic denials.

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