Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A boost to Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, but otherwise steady as she goes from the last Newspoll of the year.

As reported by The Australian, the final Newspoll for the year records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 36%, Labor 38% (steady), Greens 10% (down one) and One Nation 3% (up one). Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 44% approval and 52% disapproval, while Anthony Albanese are respectively up two to 39% and down three to 45%. The report says Morrison is down one on preferred prime minister to 45% and Albanese is down two to 36%. The poll also finds 47% expect Labor to win the election compared with 37% for the Coalition. It was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1518.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,886 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. William

    The poll also finds 47% expect Labor to win the election compared with 37% for Labor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample size as yet unreported.

    Needs editing.

  3. Thanks William.

    Slight typo in your intro piece.

    “The poll also finds 47% expect Labor to win the election compared with 37% for Labor.”

    I think the 2nd Labor should be the Coalition. 🙂

  6. 96% have made up their minds on Morrison’s favourability where as there are still 16% who are yet to decide on Albanese. Terrible numbers for an incumbent PM.

  7. I want to see how the polls go next year when the election rubber hits the road. I’m happy with numbers being like this but this is still in territory that Morrison can peg back.

  8. BK says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 9:48 pm

    96% have made up their minds on Morrison’s favourability where as there are still 16% who are yet to decide on Albanese. Terrible numbers for an incumbent PM.

    Morrison insults the intelligence of every voter every day. He is rubbish. Complete rubbish.

  10. Two articles from Benson just now:

    Labor to win election
    Labor is the favourite among voters to win the next federal election after Newspoll confirmed the Coalition is once again the underdog.
    14 MINUTES AGO By SIMON BENSON

    Bitter personal contest between Morrison and Albanese key
    While the Labor leader is now slightly ahead of Morrison for the first time since the pandemic the polls show voters aren’t thrilled with either of them.
    SIMON BENSON
    Political Editor

    And a bit on SfM:
    ‘Noise’: PM lashes Labor’s skills policy
    Scott Morrison has lashed out at the Labor party’s $1.2bn pledge to boost university and TAFE funding to address skills shortages.
    By LIAM MENDES, GEOFF CHAMBERS, REMY VARGA
    EXCLUSIVE

    Plus the Sphere of Influence:
    Oakes goes to work for the ABC
    The public broadcaster paid Laurie Oakes, Nine’s legendary long-term political editor, ‘between $10,000 and $50,000’ as part of a special project.
    1 HOUR AGO By NICK TABAKOFF
    COMMENTARY

  12. As fascinating as the regular newspoll is, don’t forget that the large parties will also be doing regular polling and keeping the findings to themselves. That polling will govern how they design their campaigns.

  13. The Australian public continue to surprise me. How can so many of even the few hundred polled want to return this mob to do nothing for the next three years?

  14. Off those primaries, you’d think the 2PP would be flirting with 54-46. Good to see Albanese’s personal ratings edge upwards. He’s never going to be a star media performer, but the idea of him being the PM needs to be at least seen as plausible by swinging voters.

  15. C@t – yes, agree with this. Pre-summer polls are nice and all, but the Great Summer Snooze tends to reset the political clock, such that pretty much everything that has happened in 2021 will be largely forgotten by March. This creates opportunities for Morrison, though certain negativities are probably baked in for him now, and his best chance, like last time, is with a negative campaign that makes the Labor alternative look worse even than his own shambolic government. He had a leg up in 2019 with Shorten’s inbuilt unpopularity, and only time will tell if he gets lucky twice.

  18. Parramatta Moderate says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 9:56 pm

    Off those primaries, you’d think the 2PP would be flirting with 54-46. Good to see Albanese’s personal ratings edge upwards. He’s never going to be a star media performer, but the idea of him being the PM needs to be at least seen as plausible by swinging voters.

    Voters do not invest heavily in The Leader these days. How could they? Leaders are disposable. There have been 7 PMs since 2007. They are clearly not built to last but to be used until they wear out, when they will be replaced.

  19. Bludging Bloos @ #18 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 7:00 pm

    Parramatta Moderate says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 9:56 pm

    Off those primaries, you’d think the 2PP would be flirting with 54-46. Good to see Albanese’s personal ratings edge upwards. He’s never going to be a star media performer, but the idea of him being the PM needs to be at least seen as plausible by swinging voters.

    Voters do not invest heavily in The Leader these days. How could they? Leaders are disposable. There have been 8 changes of PM since 2007. They are clearly not built to last but to be used until they wear out, when they will be replaced.

    So why have our elections become so Presidential in nature?

  20. Not even the government believes our elections are free and fair given their voter ID legislation.

    If they can’t believe they won every election since 2013, why should I?

  22. Not really surprised at the lack of change. People have tuned out and are in Christmas and Summer mode. Television news ratings are well down over the last couple of weeks. I do hope that when Newspoll returns next year that they include the UAP. My guess is they are probably around 4 percent, which from memory is where Morgan had them. t

  23. Pretty disappointing that the 2PP is unchanged after horrendous fortnight for the government. This is not me saying. Pretty much all of the commenters and influencers
    opined that.

  24. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:01 pm

    So why have our elections become so Presidential in nature?

    Are they really presidential? The focus is still on winning seats in the house….

  26. I’ve always said the Morrison leopard won’t change its spots.

    Morrison will be sacked for the same reasons he’s always been sacked: lack of consultation, secrecy, disloyalty, cronyism, bullshitting everyone, and being a dickhead.

    Many think Albo is dull, which may be true, but he’s honest dull, not dickhead dull. The more Morrison lies, the more attractive as PM Albo becomes.

  28. ”
    porotisays:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:04 pm
    brett @ – 6:54 pm

    The Australian public continue to surprise me. How can so many of even the few hundred polled want to return this mob to do nothing for the next three years?

    ‘Beer goggles’ ?

    Australia is the drunkest country in the world, survey finds

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/03/risky-levels-australia-is-the-drunkest-country-in-the-world-new-survey-finds
    ”

    It figures out, doesn’t it. PB discussions on lot of nights are testimony to that. 🙂

  29. I’m not seeing Morrison’s seemingly chosen line, ‘Get government out of our lives’, is resonating well for him. Most Australians are happy to have a government in their lives to do the thinking for them about the big issues and then to tell them what to do, such as has just happened with the pandemic. This enables them to get on with their lives, hassle-free.

    I honestly think Morrison has miscued here. It’s actually, I think, people want the government IN their life, to the extent of making those big decisions, so THEN the government can get the hell out while people get on with their lives.

  31. Ven

    It figures out, doesn’t it. PB discussions on lot of nights are testimony to that. 😆

    It does but there is no sign it causes sudden urges among large numbers of the Bludgertariat to rush out and vote for SfM and Barnyard.

  33. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:19 pm
    Ven,
    I never drink at home, and rarely when I go out.
    ”

    I am not pointing fingers at anyone in particular but the discussions seem to get out of hand pretty soon. 🙂

  34. Mavis:

    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:21 pm

    When Labor’s reinstalled, a priority should be to prioritise civics in the curriculum thereby giving the young at least a modicum of understanding of how the system works.

    As a youngster, the then NSW minister of health – Sid Enfield – (the father of the no-good former federal judge Marcus) visited Kiama in circa ’58, where we all went mental. Fancy a minister coming to what was then a backwater, the politics of which, unbeknownst to us at the time, was to upgrade the hospital.

    I don’t mean that the young would for a minute need understand the complexity of the competition of resources but they should at least be knowledgable of the rudimentaries. I mean to say, I hesitate to say this but I don’t think my dear young kin know a charlatan from an imposter.

    ___________________________________________

    On-trend.

  36. Ven,

    Australians got drunk an average of 27 times a year, almost double the global average

    Fortnightly vs. monthly pay days?

    On the bright side, 27 times a years implies Australians got “undrunk” at least 26 times a year.
    (You know who you are, country stereotypes.)

  37. brettsays:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 9:54 pm

    The Australian public continue to surprise me. How can so many of even the few hundred polled want to return this mob to do nothing for the next three years?
    _____________________
    Because they can still remember what Labor dished up in 2010-2013.

  38. This headline gives me an XL LOL . There’s a difference between psychics and scammers , who knew ?

    Didn’t see that coming. 😀

  39. ”
    Bludging Bloossays:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:06 pm
    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:01 pm

    So why have our elections become so Presidential in nature?

    Are they really presidential? The focus is still on winning seats in the house…
    ”

    I think ALP won the election in 2007 and lost the election in 2019 because the media made it deliberately presidential. The focus is totally on PM contenders. All the Ministers and shadow ministers are given cursory glance or ignored.

  40. Ven:

    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:06 pm

    [‘Pretty disappointing that the 2PP is unchanged after horrendous fortnight for the government. This is not me saying. Pretty much all of the commenters and influencers opined that.’]

    This will be as good as it gets for Labor but a pretty good result nevertheless.
    If replicated uniformly at the election, the Tories will be minus 22 seats.

  41. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:07 pm
    Bludging Bloos @ #24 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 7:06 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:01 pm

    So why have our elections become so Presidential in nature?

    Are they really presidential? The focus is still on winning seats in the house….
    But the campaign focus is on the leaders.

    The “leaders” are tokens for “value sets”. The personas are more like constructs than “people”. They are characters in screenplays. They are interchangeable and mutable. They play dress-ups and act out staged pieces. Politics, like most other public spectacles, is taken as “performance” or as “story”. Very few people think it’s “real”. It is mostly just yet more tv….more programming, more fiction, more ephemera, more “media”.

  42. ”
    Taylormadesays:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:31 pm
    brettsays:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 9:54 pm

    The Australian public continue to surprise me. How can so many of even the few hundred polled want to return this mob to do nothing for the next three years?
    _____________________
    Because they can still remember what Labor dished up in 2010-2013.
    ”

    See what I am talking about. 🙂

  43. As expected, all class, no fuss.

    “On Sunday 5th of December 2021, Peter Cundall passed away peacefully after a short illness, surrounded by his family.

    “Peter’s privacy, and the privacy of his family, is to be respected during this very sad time.

    “Peter’s family does not wish to be contacted.

    “While he was loved by many, as per Peter’s wishes, there will be a private cremation and no memorial services will be held.”

  44. ”
    Bludging Bloossays:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:38 pm
    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:07 pm
    Bludging Bloos @ #24 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 7:06 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:01 pm

    So why have our elections become so Presidential in nature?

    Are they really presidential? The focus is still on winning seats in the house….
    But the campaign focus is on the leaders.

    The “leaders” are tokens for “value sets”. The personas are more like constructs than “people”. They are characters in screenplays. They are interchangeable and mutable. They play dress-ups and act out staged pieces. Politics, like most other public spectacles, is taken as “performance” or as “story”. Very few people think it’s “real”. It is mostly just yet more tv….more programming, more fiction, more ephemera, more “media”.
    ”

    If what you post is true or continue in future, pretty soon we will not have a functioning democratic government.

  45. If what you post is true or continue in future, pretty soon we will not have a functioning democratic government.

    May I intercede at this point and say, “We’re fucked”?

  46. The undecideds for Albo is quite large still, so this is far from the best numbers Labor and Albo can get. Much more potential to really get this in the bag for Labor.
    Scotty can’t sell on record, so his options are really limited.

  47. Taylormade:

    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 10:31 pm

    [‘Because they can still remember what Labor dished up in 2010-2013.’]

    So it inferentially follows, you’re content with this poll(?).

  48. I think it’s a bit of a worry that 47% of Australians apparently think that the parade of clowns, liars, charlatans and fools that passes for Australia’s national Government is acceptable.

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