As reported by The Australian, the final Newspoll for the year records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 36%, Labor 38% (steady), Greens 10% (down one) and One Nation 3% (up one). Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 44% approval and 52% disapproval, while Anthony Albanese are respectively up two to 39% and down three to 45%. The report says Morrison is down one on preferred prime minister to 45% and Albanese is down two to 36%. The poll also finds 47% expect Labor to win the election compared with 37% for the Coalition. It was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1518.
lizzie
Birds.
Boerwar says:
Friday, December 10, 2021 at 7:39 pm
All that said, humanity is heading for extinction by way of entropy.
______
What you mean the heat death of the universe? Surely we can have plenty of fun in the meantime.
Steve777, Apparently based on the last election preferences it is 54.3/45.7. This Morgan is based on respondents stated preferences, hence 56.5/43.5.
crocodiles survived because they love rotting flesh. The Dinosaur extinction provided plenty of that.
lizzie
Some evolved into birds. IMO, that counts as survival.
Steve777
Yes, it would appear the PHoN/UAP of 4.5 is split 50/50 and even that doesn’t get you to 56.5 unless you weight Other higher.
Which could be the case, not sure if Morgan applies self identified preference or previous election.
Not doubting the Teal Independents may leak higher to Labor – if Climate Change and a FederalICAC are front of mind, and they understand the policies. This is the sleeper in the numbers IMHO.
Zoomster
Of course, I forgot. I was only thinking of land/sea animals … like humans are. 🙂
lizzie
Not sure how reliable this source is!
https://www.bluereefaquarium.co.uk/hastings/blog/news/10-living-descendants-and-relatives-of-dinosaurs/
Also interesting that UAP is reported as 1% in the Morgan.
It’s all the ratbag deserves, and it pulls the rug out from some on this blog who drank the Yellow Koolaid.
Confessions @ #2638 Friday, December 10th, 2021 – 7:21 pm
It’s that donkey got the apple schtick that Morrison turns on like a tap that people seem to lap up, that I think is still kind of working for him.
Someone put up the 2nd Albanese op ed in 2 weeks in The Daily Telegraph today and so that tends to suggest that, as opposed to the Murdoch media being engaged in character assassination as they were by this time in the election cycle with Bill Shorten, they are so far giving Albanese a fair shake and the chance to prove he’s got what it takes.
So I reckon Labor have just got to keep pressing that sort of advantage for as long as they can to get through to as many persuadable voters as they can. Then, after the starter’s gun goes off for the election campaign proper, hope like hell they’ve got all their ducks in a row and that Morrison continues to be on the nose.
Quoll says:
Friday, December 10, 2021 at 6:50 pm
FWIW, in fact Greens got 17.7% in senate for ACT in 2019 and Zed was pushed under a quota for the first time ever, 32.4%
____________________________________
I voted Greens in the Senate in 2019. Because there was no way Katy Gallagher would not get her quota and no way Labor would get a second quota. Almost anyone is better that Seselja.
Kim Rubinstein, a constitutional law professor at UC, has started a new, middle ground party to contest the 2022 ACT Senate election. She said she won’t be the candidate, but has not yet announced the candidate. On the same basis that I’ve voted Green in the past, I will vote for that person (subject to approving of the nomination) as the hope of tipping out the ghastly Zed. The Greens would be unlikely to get my vote this time.
Short version. 17.7% does not reflect Green support in the ACT, but hatred of Zed among those who understand the quota system and want to vote strategically.
Meher Baba, and others:
I have some very complicated opinions on decriminalising cannabis, mostly based on my own extensive experience. I don’t think it should be illegal (especially when far more dangerous and destructive drugs like cigarettes can be purchased at the local servo), but the cheerleaders who describe weed as some wonder drug that’ll cure all your ails shit me to tears, especially when they spread the patently false claim that it isn’t addictive.
If you can genuinely moderate your use, then, sure, nothing wrong with a few cones or J’s every so often. If you are genuinely using it for medical reasons, well, there’s far worse prescription drugs you could be dependant on. But I don’t think regular use is something that should be encouraged.
Most of the hardcore stoners I know – and I know more than a few – have either quit, or are just drifting aimlessly through life, mentally much the same person in their early thirties that they were back in high school. One of my friends has obvious and increasing memory issues as a result of his smoking, another spent time in a psych ward as a result of a psychotic break, another is in the process of falling down the anti-vax/Q rabbit hole.
Me? We all have our poisons, and mine is definitely sweet Mary Jane. I barely touch the stuff these days, mainly because I have no capacity to moderate my use. No matter how much I tell myself that this time I’ll be good, this time I will just reserve it for late at night and days off and special occasions, no matter how hard I try, without fail, 2-3 days after getting some, I’ll be back to being up first thing in the morning for a sneaky little puff. Just typing this is giving me cravings.
If you don’t think weed is addictive, either you don’t smoke it, you’re in denial about your own addiction, or you’re one of those lucky folk who can have an occasional smoke and leave it at that, much like I can have a few beers and then go months without another.
sprocket_ says:
Friday, December 10, 2021 at 7:48 pm
Also interesting that UAP is reported as 1% in the Morgan.
It’s all the ratbag deserves, and it pulls the rug out from some on this blog who drank the Yellow Koolaid.
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I don’t recall Palmer having any support on here. In any case I still expect the UAP to poll over 5% with some big totals in strong ALP seats.
sprocket_ @ #2664 Friday, December 10th, 2021 – 7:45 pm
I reckon some serious Labor hardheads are going to be getting around a table with Simon Holmes A’Court over the break to do some preference dealing.
”To the experts here: did any dinosaurs survive? Crocodiles?”
I’m no expert but someone who knows about this stuff says that dinosaurs are all around us. They have feathers and we call them birds.
Asha
Good post, IMO.
@Drongo says:
Friday, December 10, 2021 at 7:39 pm
Lurking around a few dark websites informs me Patrick’s home town was Whyalla. As someone on another blog has suggested, Patrick could resign his Senate seat immediately, X could take his place and they could all surf in X’s slipstream. Easy! That raises a whole lot of interesting constitutional questions about how/when/if you can replace someone who was elected under a party banner, but who has subsequently resigned, with someone from his old party. I can’t see why not. Also, could Marshall do anything slippery by refusing to appoint/elect a Senate replacement for his own grubby political advantage akin with B-P in Queensland in 1974 (the Gair Affair)? Wasn’t there a constitutional change that rectified that perfidy?
__________________
Indeed there was, in 1977 to ensure replacement senators are from the same party
Of course the LNP is happy enough to defend conventions when they are in their favour. Further the actions of Askin and Sir Joh Bonkers Bananas in 1975 wrt to Lionel Murphy and Bert Millener.
dinos?
https://www.google.com/search?q=image+of+barnaby+joyce&client=firefox-b-d&ei=ThWzYYeTNtfYz7sP1Nyw2AE&ved=0ahUKEwiH8ou_7dj0AhVX7HMBHVQuDBsQ4dUDCA4&uact=5&oq=image+of+barnaby+joyce&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAMyBQgAEM0COgcIABBHELADSgQIQRgASgQIRhgAUK8IWKUTYJwWaAFwAngAgAG6AYgBhAqSAQMwLjiYAQCgAQHIAQXAAQE&sclient=gws-wiz
Asha, the key is to buy only small amounts. You are buying an experience for the weekend etc. Don’t buy weight.
Having met Zed Seselja in a previous life, I can say he has the Croatian and happy clapper vote in Canberra sewn up. Plus the well off cohort who support Liberals.
No chance he loses the 2nd ACT Senate spot.
As they say, odds on, look on..
The Teal independents have traditionally not allocated preferences.
Simon Holmes a Court is very dismissive of suggestions that they should.
Zoomster
Written for children? But interesting.
Boerwar
Ha ha.
Sprocket,
‘Also interesting that UAP is reported as 1% in the Morgan’
Some poll in the Age or Herald-Sun recently had Palmer’s lot on 8% in Victoria. It must’ve been taken at an anti-vaxxer demo.
I recall nath was blowing smoke up Clive Palmer’s arse?
C@tmomma @ #2714 Friday, December 10th, 2021 – 6:50 pm
I don’t think they’ll recommend preferences as that could be too dangerous to their primary vote from ex liberal voters. But I’m sure there will be some subtle ways worked out to communicate the message not to vote coalition.
Haven’t seen as many Palmer ads lately.
Steve777
“I’m no expert but someone who knows about this stuff says that dinosaurs are all around us. They have feathers and we call them birds.”
That is correct. I know quite a lot about this stuff. Birds are indeed a kind of dinosaur. Scientifically speaking, birds (Aves) belong to a lineage of dinosaurs called the pennaraptoran theropods.
A large number of characters found in birds (including feathers and a warm-blooded physiology) were inherited by birds from their dinosaurian ancestors.
Crocodiles are more closely related to dinosaurs (and therefore birds) than they are to other ‘reptiles’, like lizards, snakes, and turtles. But crocodiles are not dinosaurs.
”
The Silver Bodgiesays:
Friday, December 10, 2021 at 4:10 pm
For what it’s worth, remembering back to the Gillard days it seemed every negative poll was the headline story on 3AW and most TV stations for days in Melbourne.
”
I lost a most of my respect for Australian media during Gillard years irrespective of how Murdoch hacks Only a few like Laura Tingle, Lenore Taylor, Barry Cassidy, David Speers, Michael Rowlands held their own.
Boerwar,
Well sure, but losing 99.9% of your population is a fair description of an extinction level threat.
In any case my original point was that the threat is there, and it is reasonable to do what we can to prevent it.
Nath:
Ha, that was literally my tactic for several years. Enjoy a few days blazed, then a month or two back in the real world. It worked… for a time. The challenge is not buying more once you run out.
A half or an oz is also way more value for money than a stick, so it’s easy for the irrational addict in one’s head to justify buying in bulk as “saving money.”
Believe me, I wish I was the sort of person who could just smoke occasionally. That would be wonderful. But, for me, its a choice between never getting high or doing it all day, every day. So I choose the former.
“If you don’t think weed is addictive, either you don’t smoke it, you’re in denial about your own addiction, or you’re one of those lucky folk who can have an occasional smoke and leave it at that, much like I can have a few beers and then go months without another.”
***
Don’t spin it with tobacco, it’s far less addictive without the added nicotine. That’s actually what can get many really hooked on smoking it. Without it it’s mildly addictive but very easy to stop using compared to cigarettes. Like there’s no comparison between the two hey, nicotine is evil shit. And yeah avoid bongs too, they turn you into a couch potato. Vaping it or a joint is the way to go.
Steve777 @ #2727 Friday, December 10th, 2021 – 7:05 pm
If he figures the coalition are gone even with his advertising spend, he’s not going to waste any more money. He may be evil but he’s not stupid, especially with money.
sprocket_ says:
Friday, December 10, 2021 at 8:03 pm
I recall nath was blowing smoke up Clive Palmer’s arse?
_________
Really? I can’t recall that. I did say that the UAP could do pretty well. I wouldn’t think it impossible that they could get 7%.
If that’s what you call blowing smoke up someones arse.
Palmer had ads in the 9fax papers today, hardly fertile ground – same ‘You can’t trust the liberals, Labor or Greens..’ schtick – Vote 1 Crackpot.
Haven’t seen a similar Albo Bad set from the Fat Yellow, unlike the Shorten Bad from 2019.
nath
nath, I’ve already taken the blue pill to escape coming to terms with this dystopian nightmare.
Asha,
Spoken by someone who knows. 🙂
I agree with all that you have wrote, however, can I add a little perspective to your psychic break story?
My sons’ best friends were a couple of brothers who spent just as much time at our house as they did at their own as they all grew up. Until they moved too many suburbs away to truly stay in touch easily. Next thing we hear they are dealing weed because that was the suburb they moved to. Big mistake! Their father was a diagnosed schizophrenic and as sure as night followed day, the psychic break occurred for one and then the other. We went and visited them once in Psych Inpatients. Not pretty. In fact, pretty damn depressing.
However, and my point is, knowing their father, who had an alcohol and cigarette addiction problem, it is my belief that there’s a sort of chicken and egg quality to the, if we decriminalise, then what? debate. That is, schizophrenia has existed for millennia. It will become manifest at the age it generally comes on. People who are genetically predisposed seem to be attracted to mind-altering chemicals of one kind or another, so what do we do? Keep all of them illegal and make alcohol and cigarettes illegal too because we want to ‘keep them safe’? Because if that’s what you think then it’s not going to work out the way you think it is.
I say this because I had a friend when I was growing up who was in the ‘mad, bad and dangerous to know’ category. He ended up in the Inpatient Psych Ward because he found out from somewhere that a certain flower on a certain bush, could be made into a tea and drunk in order to space you out. So he did.
Then there’s the historical case of the rye flour that became infected with an hallucinogenic fungus. That certainly created quite the craze. We would be the poorer today if we had banned Rye Flour and couldn’t use it to make delicious bread.
So, my point is, yes there are definitely red flags when it comes to any sort of mind-altering chemical, but, if we approach their use sensibly and do not continue to keep them and the people who use them, lurking in the shadows, then we can treat any deleterious effects from their use by certain people among us, as the medical issues they are, not legal ones. And we’d also have a hell of a lot more people able to legally access CBD for their epilepsy, and whatever other chemical produced by the plant, for their arthritis and nerve pain and it would bring happiness to those who ARE able to control their use of it for recreational purposes. We certainly, as a society, have managed to do it, for the most part, with alcohol. Why not Marijuana? 🙂
‘JimmyD says:
Friday, December 10, 2021 at 8:06 pm
Boerwar,
Well sure, but losing 99.9% of your population is a fair description of an extinction level threat.
In any case my original point was that the threat is there, and it is reasonable to do what we can to prevent it.’
==================
That was an unlikely hypothetical, not a description of what I regard to be the real life threat level.
Kakuru
It took a while for researchers to prove that dinosaurs had feathers or similar – but have they found fur yet?
“I lost a most of my respect for Australian media during Gillard years”
I real wake up call for me, and now with the proceeding LNP government and comparing it with the previous Labor government, I mean objectively the LNP government is no better.
I personally think its far worse.
But it is stunning how different the media is acting compared to how they treated the Labor government. And this idea that the ABC is biased to Labor is laughable.
zoomster @ #2721 Friday, December 10th, 2021 – 7:55 pm
If they are truly independent, that makes a lot of sense.
Vote 1 Independent. After that, preference whichever party of inaction you prefer.
Player 1
Take a break from your repetitive posting and google Dr Bill Rees CANCOR 2021, spend an hour listening and you get an idea of where I’m coming from.
Bill Rees is responsible for the concept of ecological footprint.
Yes, birds are the only surviving clade of dinosaurs. Their ancestors might have looked a bit more fierce than the lovely feathered friend sitting outside your window now but they were birds back then too. Actually, bipedal dinosaurs get categorised into avian and non-avian, with a few genera skirting the taxonomical line. Genera like Velociraptor (who were nothing like portrayed in the Jurassic Park movies) and their slightly larger cousins Deinonychus just sit on the non-avian side (despite having a lot of bird-like features), whereas something like Archeopteryx was on the avian side of the line.
As for crocodiles, yes they are more closely related to dinosaurs than other reptiles but the last common ancestor of dinosaurs and all crocodilia (which includes alligators etc.) was around the Triassic period.
Apologies for the nerdy long answer, evolutionary biology and prehistoric life are one of my very dorky interests.
ajm @ #2726 Friday, December 10th, 2021 – 8:04 pm
Or maybe not so subtle. Just don’t do it! You can draw your own preferencing conclusions from there. 🙂
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/12/05/newspoll-53-47-to-labor-12/comment-page-55/#comment-3771609
The 1977 casual vacancies amendment reduced but did not eliminate the possibilities for casual vacancies shenanigans.
Cleaver Bunton equivalents (not a member of the party) are banned.
Albert Field equivalents effectively cannot be appointed the state parliament, as that would give whichever party enough notice to boot them (presuming the process was not too slow), however it may still be possible to do if the state parliament is not in session (i.e. prorogued or dissolved) when the vacancy is notified as the Governor in Council can appoint a temporary replacement (much easier to do quickly and quietly enough to get an Albert Field equivalent in).
Leaving the vacancy in place is also an option not addressed in 1977, as proved in 1987 by Tasmania.
Only countback (as used in Tasmania and the ACT), with an appropriate writ issuing enforcement procedure involving the courts, properly insulates against Senate casual vacancy shenanigans.
”
C@tmommasays:
Friday, December 10, 2021 at 4:58 pm
‘No Jab No Play’ was Scott C@tmommasays:
Friday, December 10, 2021 at 4:58 pm
‘No Jab No Play’ was Scott Morrison’s idea as Social Services Minister. Though he never wants you to remember his past actions. It’s all about the ever-present present. Never mind the quality, feel the width.Morrison’s idea as Social Services Minister. Though he never wants you to remember his past actions. It’s all about the ever-present present. Never mind the quality, feel the width.
”
This.
Why don’t any media ask that he was the only Minister in last 70 years if not ever to introduce a policy of ‘No Jab No Play’ ?
Firefox:
I used to spin. It definitely made it much more addictive and much harder to quit. However…
When I first made the decision to quit, I was hooked on both weed and tobacco. I kicked both after several weeks of hell, and a couple of months later figured, hey, why don’t I just try smoking it straight. Surely I’ll be able to moderate myself if there’s no nicotine.
Nope. I was back to old habits in days. I haven’t smoked tobacco since then – I never want to experience nicotine withdrawal again – but I’ve gone back to pot again and again and again.
There’s still withdrawal when it’s just weed. It’s nothing compared to nicotine, and I think it’s much more psychological than physical, but it’s there, and it’s a bitch when you’re in the midst of it. The addiction, at least for me, isn’t so much to the actual chemicals as it is to the feeling of being stoned. In that respect, its probably closer to, say, gambling or video game addiction than to tobacco or meth.
RP @ #2742 Friday, December 10th, 2021 – 8:17 pm
I know where you’re coming from. I don’t want to go there.
Wat Tyler
The range of knowledge amongst Bludgers is what makes this blog interesting. For me, anyway.
Ven @ #2746 Friday, December 10th, 2021 – 8:20 pm
Because the Menacing Wallpaper will go and talk to their bosses. They have bills to pay.